Finally, I’ve come to grips with the notion that trading in and out of inane tech and basic material stocks is equal to playing with a dynamite rigged Jack in the Box. It’s all fun and games until Jack blows your skeleton to pieces.
Over the past 6 months, I’ve been dodging bullets, using my market timing mechanisms, via The PPT, to trade in and out of stocks like CLF, WNR, TEX, VMW, just to name a few. Generally speaking, despite my gains, I am not happy with my lifestyle here, always worrying about shoes dropping or special market moving surprises from our beloved politicians.
So, I’m going back to my roots, delving into food and beverage again. There was a time when I traded names like HANS, BWLD and WFM exclusively, some of you are well aware. At any rate, I’ve done the preliminary analysis and will begin the process of elimination to find some solid companies that I can toss millions into without worrying about catching a knife to the face, whenever the market decides to tank again.
A few freebies: FIZZ and SUSS are booming, both in different ways. FIZZ is in the process of cleaning out the company coffers, via special dividends. Why? Answer: insiders own 76% of shares outstanding. Dividends are taxed at a lower rate and these fuckers are cleaning house, having paid out over $160 million in special divvys, over the past two years–both done in Q1.
SUSS is a great play on the Texas economy, being the largest transporter of fuel in Texas and having over 500 food service locations. They are benefiting from favorable demographics, as the Texas population increases and an overall strong local economy.
I will have a full list of stocks worth your perusal within a few days to a week.
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Old school stock picking indeud!
I just scaled off some WFM today, but keeping a core in this bitch.
Soylent Green
Look fwd to it. I read the MS report on refiners that you posted to the PPT. Getting access to that type of material is a great value add. A while ago, you described WNR as being worth $25/share. Can you give us some broad strokes, so to speak, about how you got to that number? Tnx
Interesting. I always learn something new from the good Dr.
Any interest in DPZ or YUMM?
Stock wise. I would never imagine a man of you stature to eat this crap.
The stocks do well precisely because persons of low stature eat the crappy products these companies sell, like BWLD. Except for WFM that sells high quality stuff but does a booming business anyway. Persons of high stature do eat the stocks, because it’s darn profitable to do so.
I do love me some taco bell once in a while. Brings me back to my early high school days after soccer practice I would ride my bike 8 miles dehydrated and starving to eat about 10 hard-shell supremes. Maybe that is why I did not get laid. Damnit it all makes sense now.
LOL.
Funny story from this morning… my two oldest sone are very close in age, and as a result have always shared a room, even after we moved to a bigger house.
Well they’re both full fledged “teenagers” now, and I think my wife is beginning to make alternate plans…
She came out of their room this morning after waking them up for schoo, waving her hand wildly in her face. “No more late night Taco Bell for those two!”
I said to her… “that’s nothing, wait til they start drinking beer….”
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Start?
ha haha ha
I think he blamed his appendicitis on it if I recall.
China loves it some KFC.
We recently organized a U.S. economic study tour for North Korean economics officials – trying to give them some gentle nudges toward a market-based economy. Similar tours by Chinese officials preceded the decisions by that government to transform their economy, though I don’t know what kind of lead time was involved.
Anyway, the delegation specifically requested a tour of a KFC franchise.
Who knows? Maybe dreams of becoming chicken millionaires will influence discussions in the upper levels of the DPRK government.
My good friend builds chemical plants over in China. He says KFC is out the door. It is funny how we love fake Chinese food and they love fake American food.
They were prolly just hungry.
Hold on a sec… you’re trying to move the North Koreans away from insular communism…?
(Irony bells clanging off the hook)
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(You know I’m just shitting with you Ottnott. Good for you for trying to save a slave state. Unfortunately, nothing will happen until that family and it’s entrenched allies, are riven from that nation, root and branch. They ain’t the Red Chinese Commies… power ain’t “shared” there. It’s more Saddam Hussein than Chou En Lai.)
Indeud!
Can someone define “indeud” for me? I’ve seen it a couple of times here. Thanks in advance!
INDUED = INDEED
This term was coined on Jason True’s now defunct blog on IBC. Jason blogged about the finer things in life which made sound like an elitist douche. He didn’t last long.
Indeud: A way gentlemen alert each other to something that should already be obvious or agree on something obvious thereof.
Pronunciation: “Indeed” but with your bottom teeth protruding outwards.
“A website is only as strong as its dictionary.
–Indeud.”
(see Behold!, Viz.)
Indued was certainly NOT “coined” on Jason Treu’s very short-lived fashion blog.
We’ve been saying (or more specifically the Monsieur has been saying) it since this site first started and we were doing Bilderberg parodies.
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“the Texas population increases”
in size, I take it you mean.
I remember the HANS days well, good times, no tarp, no timmy, no 0bama.
TFM is on my radar
Beverages….how quaint!
roots baby,tired of this shit to.
Didn’t see any family pictures with the Jobs Memorial.
The guy had to write a book (actually a told to book) in his last days to his kids- hey get to know me kids.
hey,lets not forget,he’s still entitled to his 255 dollar death benny from uncle sugar.
Funny story trader thought you might like. Playing in an 8 with my father in law and his band members from back in the day and one guy doesn’t show so I get paired up with random single. Doesn’t matter to me because I don’t know anyone anyways. Turns out he is from Florida visiting the family and teaches golf and at one point was some junior professional. super nice guy with great stories and lots of tips. Lucky as shit I was that day…
I gobbled up some WNR (no homo) today. It was on sale 6% off!
“…HANS, BWLD and WFM…”
Wow! I’m having a flashback to the ol’Fly on Wall Street blog.
In 2008 when I use to be bullish and fed stock ideas to Jim Cramer thru James, I loved Chattem, Oct 2008 and it was a perfect company with good fundies. Even wrote an article on that and other solid companies. Jim had the CEO on that night talking about how good everything was…..then the market fell out of bed and everything got sold ugly, even great fundie companies like Chattem. So much of my Bubble 101 learning experience of 2009 comes from that experience of missing the bear signs,fwiw, FIZZ will FIZZ out if my Copper Bubble analysis is correct.
So you are the person in Jim Cramer’s ear? I had no idea! Did you run his hedge fund too?
Bullish, Not anymore..I was in his ear in 2007/2008. If you remember the Bionic Woman week, that was not just my stocks..but my entire idea. Now, I have just been lamenting for him to watch the Macro and Currencies..I am so bearish and he is so bullish. I got to know him thru Stockpickr, which many of my fellow Stockpickrs hang out here at now. For Hedge Funds, lol, as I have said over and over..I only started all of this when I stumbled onto Stockpickr in July 2007, so this is my 4th year..My teachers have only been Jim C, Harry Boxer, Fly, Scott and all the other great bloggers.
TN you’re cronoligical memory is skewed…
So you never invested before 2007 and jim cramer was taking advice from you? Wtf?
You ever look at tobacco companies?
Reynolds American Inc Common St RAI Yield of 6.00%
Vector Group Ltd. Common Stock VGRYield of 8.50%
Sounds like a good plan Master Fly.
Don’t forget to eat your protein, son.
so your average holding period goes from maybe 1 week to a few now or what?
This market feels like the ending of a SAW movie. Greedy buyers rush into elevator yesterday and today. Elevator door shuts unexpectedly. The signs are everywhere – riots around the world, signs of the world ending, 2012, Rick Ross near brush with death but they ignore it all. Sounds of elevator cables snapping. Death Plunge begins……..
sounds more like final destination
I offer one up to le Senor… in this theme b.s you suddenly go going, CHD.
Gracias
FIP
Fast Money speed talkers were going Lady GaGa today over RIG. Exactly what is the BFD qwioth RIG here? I’m in bed with no pajamas with SDRL which looks to me like a much better situation. But, WTFDIK.
42 has been the bottom going back three years … if RIG (HAL as well) cuts a deal with BP as APC did then there could be one final sell off to a great buying opportunity … and if RIG gets off cheap then the bottom may already be in.
SDRL has a better divy yet their margins are falling and their earnings are expected to be off about $1 this year vs last and that calls into question the cash flow needed to support that high dividend … have you looked at cash flow going forward?
Just added to my position in TWM. This rounds out my position so now it’s time to sit back and watch what happens. Gain or lose, I bail as soon as the $RUT MACD starts to show strength.
In the morning we’ll hear that France and Germany will have agreed on a resolution, markets will soar and by early afternoon we’ll hear that they haven’t and markets will sour. Just another typical day.
You’ve caught on..
I have a really good one that I actually went to visit recently.
Perhaps I’ll feature in it on my blog tonight if I can get on it….
In the meantime, my second favorite foodie is — gasp! — Europeastanian — Unilever (UL)!
Fat divvy too, for you old bitchez.
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