This is not “the” bottom, but one that will be traded and sopped up by fucked up trading robots, as you delve into a great depression. I was very bearish over the weekend and still believe the S&P dips below 1,000. However, today’s breadth is screaming for an oversold bounce higher. We are talking about 5-8% to the upside in the gayest fashion ever.
I say this with 70% of my assets in cash and very little to gain from such an occurrence. However, let it be known, I will force myself to buy more equities tomorrow until it borders on the insane. I will run my screens inside The PPT this evening and establish a game plan to bath in great profits, at the explicit expense of THE CEMENT HEAD and others.
While this might seem like an astronaut plan to you, it is something that must be done, so sorry.
Men from honourable realms, like Roger Nightingale, believe we are heading into a fabulous depression, dressed with starved babies and houses made from mud and cow shit. I happen to agree with him. The coming depression will poleax most of you into a new stone age, where you will be forced to build wheels for food. But, before all of that happens, first, we must rally into the sun, with balmy breezes caressing our faces–as we shoot RPG’s aimed at outerspace.
I find pleasure in futility.
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I can only pray, good sir, that this here bottom you speak of is already upon us and the trip up from it has already commenced.
And, where the fuck is geitner, anyway….seriously.
Holy shit, you are waiting for Geithner to save your ass?
C’mon!
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Treasury sec is supposed to be around during times like this.
Timmy owes the American people a press conference—anything to at least feign confidence for Pete’s sake.
sure, what the fuck is he supposed to just let the banks get shorted to oblivion? it matters.
Why would he appear when there is nothing that can be said to bolster peoples confidence?
Everyone knows…..the entire world knows, that USA innovation and demand for products is the engine that has driven the global economy for the last 6 decades.
The entire world also knows that for the last 3 decades, said demand has been generated artificially through the use of debt and that cannot continue without consequence.
The entire world is waiting for the straw that breaks the camels back and knows that it will surely come.
The entire world knows that without US demand, they are all screwed. China was/is a farce and a madhouse full of cooked books. It will not take the place of the US in terms of demand generation. All they are interested in is hoarding to ensure their own supply of “stuff” and they fail to realize that doing so kills off demand for their products even faster.
Confidence is rightfully at a very low ebb and little is seen on the horizon that would inspire upward movement……..Timmah!? …. 0Bama?!?…. meh…not so much. They are educated, but clueless idiots and know only what they have been taught and learned from textbooks.
I am in a rather dour mood this evening.
See the Revelation of John, chapter 18 verses 11-15 just for kicks. (helpful hint for the godless pagans among us, Revelation is the last book in the Bible)
Don’t drive angry, Fly.
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does anyone denote a certain smugness amongst Dr. Goldfinger this eve? he has been right too much, me thinks.
HSM are more freely available
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/09/27/report-20000-heat-seeking-missiles-may-be-missing-from-libyan-warehouse/
There was an article this weekend in the WSJ about how there were all these TOW missiles just sitting there in the middle of the Libyan desert, and all manner of fak-tard (Arabic for you know what) was going out and throwing them in the back of their white Toyota pickups.
Should make for an interesting Fourth of July.
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Two words:
Art Cashin 🙂
Think we head lower still, sir. Looking within the next few days to get long some TNA Calls (the November 26’s) and also some UCO Calls (the April 21’s).
those damn liberal progressive thinkers! First no trans fats, universal healthcare and now no sex with fido?! This proves Obama is a socialist! <>>
Guess I should have clarified that statement from before
If the “Bulkowski W” pattern fails, we can still head higher. But, it won’t be a 1400 Dow point rocket ride into thanksgiving.
Instead it will be a choppy and terrifying grind upward. Trading it will feel make you feel like this guy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Siq0QC8P9g&t=4m10s
Agrued. Look at these global infrastructure stocks, X, FWLT MDR, JEC, MTW, TEX, DE, CAT, CX, etc. these fucking things are all screaming GLOBAL FUCKING DEPRESSION!!!
If somehow we muddle along you’re looking at triples in some of this shit.
Today would have been heaven if I would have stuck to my guns, but that ISM head fake got me and I sold my brearish positions like a baby… Right when they were worst against me on the day… I’m going into tomorrow neutral outside my @#^%* dividends that are longterm not touchable. Time to accept the loss and move on…
Re-reading some of my favorite sections of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator…
I’m taking up the “art” of blacksmithing for this here depression. Horse shoes, buggy wheels and the like, come get-um…don’tch know…ha
Heh that is like back for the scary Y2K event days where people were learning to tan leather and buying Ben Franklin stoves and storing water and seeds and stuff 🙂 some serious tech ppl that should know better bought whole compounds in the country…
Artist really IS a blacksmith, however. He needs to feature his blog site again.
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After the beating today I will volunteer as town jester…
Catching falling knives Fly?
Don’t cut your hand.
I’ll be selling around 1040ish. Got out of some shorts late today.
We bounce tomorrow. I’ll be using it to stuff myself silly with (more) Skiffles.
Who is cement head?
TAKE A GUESS.
does he lubb the shiny stuff?
He wears a codpiece made of platinum.
i am familiar with him
Hopefully, Fly won’t be playing catch. He’s been throwing knives lately and they keep missing the target – and any number of lovely assistants on the spinning wheel have been sliced to ribbons as a result. Admittedly, a valuable lesson has been learned by said assistants about which end of the knife to be on, but it adds only marginally to Fly’s public standing.
Now, Fly’s gardeners are also discussing the impending bounce and when to fade it, as are tom, dick, and harry… what does it all mean? I don’t intend to find out in person… whatever the reality turns out to be, I’m pretty sure it won’t be: futures are up, buy tomorrow morning, sell in a few days.
>>We are talking about 5-8% to the upside in the gayest fashion ever… The coming depression will poleax most of you into a new stone age, where you will be forced to build wheels for food.<<
–Hunter S. "Fly" Thompson!
The bounce I’m predicting for tomorrow probably has a shelf-life of a few hours. I covered my shorts at the close and I’ll likely go short by the end of tomorrow, depending on what I see.
I’m buying MS tomorrow, it is a win-win trade.
If it goes up, I win.
If it goes to zero, I’ll lose some money, but Cramer will finally be exposed for the fraud he is and banished from TV and the face of the earth – which will be a much better place, even in my mud hut…so I win again!
fyi – stripers are running
hey gays – read bill oneil. we just tipped over the precipice and started the 2nd leg down of 3 or more. basic chart reading and price/volume tells the story. look for 3-6 more months of HORATIO 69ing with smokey the BEAR on his new Cappellini sectional.
Say it ain’t so. I’ll only beleive this if Tea says it is and it looks to me like Tea may be half in the bag somewhere on the Cape.
The OEW Recap is awaiting the final capitulation and the end to this bear …
“What’s next. We’re carrying two main counts, one posted on the SPX charts, (abA-B), and the other on the DOW charts, (1-2-3-4). Currently we prefer the SPX count. What separates the two counts, since there has not been any overlaps of any of the trends, is what we call capitulation. Near the end of a bear market, or a highly significant low in a bear market, there is total capitulation. Even by the owners of defensive stocks. After that occurs, the market usually starts uptrending from an oversold condition, and then downtrends into the final low. Should we see this kind of capitulation on this downtrend the end of the bear market is near. If not, the count posted on the DOW charts will be preferred.
Short term support is at the OEW 1090 pivot range, the mid-1070?s and then the 1058 pivot range. Overhead resistance is in the low 1120?s and then the 1136/1146 pivot range. It certainly looks like Minor wave 3 had no trouble asserting itself on this first day of October.”
If I’m reading Tony right, he believes the SPX count will prevail. That count favors a shorter bear market with three Primary Waves (ABC) down with each leg (A-B-C) comprised of three Major Waves (a-b-c) rather than five waves as found in the Dow count.
Currently, using the SPX count … we have completed three Major waves for each of the two Primary Waves already completed (A and B) with only the Primary C Wave (now underway) to complete the bear market. The C wave should be comprised of three major waves (a-b-c) as was the case with Primary waves A & B.
If I’m reading his charts right, this move down is the third minor wave of five needed to form the first “major wave a” down of Primary Wave C, to then be followed by minor wave4 up and minor wave5 down to complete this Major Wave A. Then a rally leg up (Major Wave B) followed by the last leg down of this bear via Major Wave C completing the Primary Wave C formation around spx 1010 with less fanfare than the capitulation expected upon completion of Major Wave A.
Capitulation as Tony sees it will be obvious when defensive stocks and the canary in the coal mine (MCD) are tossed out like babies with the bathwater. Lots of capitulation today in a number of stock sectors and Tony seems to be looking for major capitulation soon … as noted above with the completion of this Major Wave A.
So with this road map, Fly is correct. It’s safer to stay in cash and think long rather than short with most of the bear behind us now. Gold looks good per Tony as well. Buy the capitulation/blood would seem to be the best option here shortly … would hate to be holding shorts when the EU and the Bernanke implement QE back to back.
Really, I beg to differ here regarding a depression. Say what you want about the real estate market, but house prices are rising in Florida and they are building new homes down there BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO, or the homebuilders lose the deeds on the property and someone else can buy the land. People are building new homes as well because it is cheaper and more attractive than buying an existing home.
I don’t agree with your last sentence. My observation is the total dollar price of land and construction of a well-built new house is greater than the cost of an existing house. Emphasis on “well-built”.
In my neighborhoood, the mass market houses go up in maybe four weeks, they barely wait for the concrete foundation to set before they start stacking the cheap materials. I think mass market new houses are poorly built pieces of attractive crap, compared to older houses.
btw- if you automatically use the word home, instead of house, you may have a belly full of Kool Aide served from the real estate marketing folks. Just sayin…
Fly,
I like your thinking. Low RSI, below lower BBand and bullish McClellan divergence. Some historical instances here http://www.ripetrade.com/2011/10/bullish-breadth.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/03/us-eurozone-idUSTRE79211720111003
The best thing would be blood at the open, and then a nice divergence at lows with breadth/momentum, pick yer poison. That’s the best chance for an afternoon face ripper.
Two words: Transaction tax.
Do you dopey lefties ever think of anything save stuffing your fat, lazy, inefficient and intrusive gummint uncle with more of my money?
Get a job.
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EURUSD and S&P 500 Take a Major Step to Revive Bear Trends
Monday, October 03, 2011 ?15:33 PM
bank sector cde review
It happened a little more quickly than expected. With disappointing headlines over the weekend, the Euro started the new trading week with a gap lower that set the tone for fear of a spreading, global financial crisis. It doesn’t take much at this point to spark the imaginations of speculators at this stage in the game; and with critical technical breaks; we may have all that is needed to revive a deepening bear trend.
Open in new browser window http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2011/10/03/EURUSD_and_SP_500_Take_a_Major_Step_to_Revive_Bear_Trends.html
Morgan Stanley will be up huge tomorrow guys!
what about BAC? buy or sell?
CDS REVIEW
I wish to thank The Fly, whom without, I would not have two amazing pure-bred German Shepard dogs guarding my property tonight.
These were purchased from an impeccable AKC certified, breeder in the Pacific Northwest.
Then, after my personal pick of two separate litters, they were then flown to my home town to watch over the fence-line.
These two dogs (Boy and girl…Jett and Xena), are merely part of my preparation for what seems to be a mostly defensible future.
These pets, and much, much more, were completely paid for by The Fly’s strong buy rating on FTK when it was around a buck or so.
God Bless you, Mr. Fly. I hope you don’t mind I named you their Godfather.
What unbelievable bottom are we speaking off here ? Like this (.) like this ( . ) or like this (0) ?
Buying MS is a win-win trade.
Either the stock goes up – a win.
Or the stock goes to zero and Jim Cramer is banned from TV – a win.
How could you lose?
You mean you’re gonna buy tomorrow like all the other smart guys are gonna buy tomorrow?
Wow. So it’ll work out for all the smart guys who get long tomorrow? Everyone will make money. All the smart guys who are all doing the exact same thing, because they are smart.
Hang seng just took another big dump all over itself. It can’t stop crapping and crapping and crapping. Call the doctor.
Actually, all of the smart guys are riding in the fucking Fazmobile. Where have you been?
Not all the smart guys.
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I have been in the Fazmobile with my little friend the US Dollar, along with SMN,FXP,VXX,DRR..and gold…..Tomorrow I will have to hit the Clam over his head again with his Spine when he testifies in front of Congress….for the Machine popping…1120…1090…and then finally 1020…as we Chaa Chaa around these levels…..
btw, I was just back blogging..lol, there was no comments at all on the Silence Post..amuses the heck out of me that no one spoke.
I bet more people would visit your blog if you sold worn undies on your website.
Merv, Retail isn’t even working in this market.
I’ve been short CMG 410 calls from 330 and see no reason not to remain so. It, too, keeps crapping madly all over itself.
Good luck on WNR.
I’m afraid the great liquidation is in full swing.. I am not even going to entertain getting long anything until the $SPX can get at least above it’s 100 SMA..
Nah, we’re already pretty oversold. Maybe another 50-90 points tomorrow, then it’s time for the rubber match.
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So, no sooner Kramer says MS is a buy right here, right now, Sr. Tropicana translates that into a bullish market scenario and who can blame him. Its almost time to boo-yah the market, right-on, right-on!
I like grabbing a bottom as much as the next guy but sometimes you can get in big trouble.
How are these numbers a killer for this bank? Seriously.
Many analysts keep saying that a Greek default is already baked into equity prices yet as the Greek default headlines the daily news it seems every day we head lower! WTF is taking so long for Europe to deal with this problem?
If the default is disorderly we go down to the ninth circle of hell…
The RBA is signalling that if inflation allows it, it will consider cutting interest rates.
The Aussie dollar’s current level is strangling the economy and with China’s growth slowdown, I can’t see rates being left alone for too long.
CUTTING RATES – NOT RAISING….this does not happen in times of economic growth.
With worsening conditions, the US congress could pass measure to hit Chinese imports with levies. If it passes congress and finally Obama signs it into law for 2012 elections, we could see a trade war that only hurts both countries as well as the global economy.
Again….currencies tell of far larger moves/direction in coming months….in my view – any consideration of ‘longs’ will likely be just as difficult to play – as the trend…is and will be DOWN – for the forseeable future.
What’s the 9th circle of hell though, uncle.
They will not be allowed to get away with defaulting on the entire amount. Total debt is around $340 billion. That get cut to $150 billion. In the scheme of the two economies- the US and Europe- that’s really almost a drop in the fucking ocean.
As for the Frog and German banks.. they can take the hit with minimal equity replenishment.
Greece will default, but I don’t see the huge headwind here longer term. In fact it would be better if they defaulted so the EU can handle the other fuck ups.
Are you buying here J?
😉
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