Not Ready for the Rubber Match, Obviously
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The good news is that we should get a really nice bounce here in the next couple of days, and perhaps as early as tomorrow morning. The bad news is that I think we’ll very likely drop another 50 points on the S&P, and may drop as much as 90-150 before we get that rebound.
Here’s what I’m looking for on the $SPX — the only index that really matters here, although one could make a case for shorting the Cubes (QQQ) tomorrow morning as well, as it has yet to drop like it’s brethren. I think that it’s very likely we get a quick broken elevator tomorrow to 1050, minimum. If momentum really picks up, it might even drop as much as 90 to the second (red) line here:
And yes, even 950 is a possibility here, if the momentum gets all ragey to the point of the Friday employment numbers. I really don’t expect that however, as we are egregiously oversold here. I will be loosing my SKF, TZA and ERY to the trade winds as we visit these levels. I may keep a base of the Skiffles, however.
Another reason I see the downspike continuing is that the dollar doesn’t seem to be done here, after busting through that resistance at $79 on the index. I think the next target is the 50% retracement here:
Important to realize here, on this dollar index, however, is that price is finally through the 200 week EMA again, and we have the 13-week EMA finally crossing back over the 34-week EMA, with both on the upswing. This is not good news for either the market or our precious metal friends, girls and boys.
Get your helmet. Get two helmets and sit on one. Protects against land mines.
Best to you, and take good care.
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Get your helmet. Get two helmets and sit on one. Protects against land mines.
Even as I patrol America’s streets IRAC-eye style (ask Fly or Chess), Ur quote’s book-bind worthy (imho).
Congrats.
You are not Fly’s bro-in-law, are you?
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Not last time I checked.
I’m sure we’d have kick-ass holiday get-togetherz though.
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I mean that I’m an oather and 2nd amendment type.
I appreciate why the drafters placed, especially, the 2nd trough 6th amendments therein.
lol, love your ALDS reference, go Tigers! Verlander pitched out of his mind tonight. Gotta love that 5th inning. 10 pitches, 3 strikeouts.
Freaking 101 miles an hour (for strikes!) in the 8th inning??!!
How do you defend against that?
And even the heroic Jeter is now showing signs of age with that final strikeout.
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You’re in sync with my wave guy … new low upon completion of this minor wave3 (1050?) then a rally followed by the final low to 1011 with worse case 869.
Fib support at 1019, 936 and 873. OEW pivots at 1018, 1007, 944 and 876.
We thought you were out getting bombed on the Cape?
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Prepping the house for my sons wedding when I return from a trip to Florida … leaving tomorrow so been busy …
Congrats!
I would warrant that you are too olde for this site, but I won’t tell Fly.
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Have a great trip Tea and thanks for re-posting your wave analysis. Congrats on your son’s upcoming wedding. Looks to me like the dollar tagged that 50 percent fib yesterday. Market has been so news driven hard to tell which way it’ll go.
Congrats Papa T, well done (/ doing)!
Thanks all … enduring hurricane-like weather here in FL this weekend but things are looking up for the remainder of my trip.
Maybe if I stay away the market will continue to rally …. OEW had some interesting discussion and charts this weekend:
“There is good news this time around. We are again expecting a B wave rally, which could last about two months, and retrace between 50% and 61.8% of the A wave decline. This targets the Primary B wave rally to top between the two OEW pivots at 1222 and 1261 by November/December. Then we are expecting another five wave decline, lasting about five months, which should bottom in the spring of 2012 between SPX 869/873 and 1011/1019. With the most likely low at the 61.8% retracement level of SPX 936/956. These levels are all posted on the weekly chart as either a Fibonacci support level or a wave price level.”
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/10/08/weekend-update-313/
Im looking for the $USD to get back to 88.
I must take a sip from the RGLD chalice here. Just a sip
Not only is the dollar strength not good for my gold holdings, its not good for my vacation to Kauai either.
Anyways, off to source some good quality helmets this morning…
The Yankees are finally feeling the negative effects of the big A-Rod contract.
Because of the big contract, Girardi is forced to bat him 4th, when given the year he had, he should be batting 8th. But that won’t happen because of the big contract he has.
And the Yanks are suffering because of it.
C’mon! He’s batting 4th because he’s got 600+ homers, for goodness sakes.
And we lost a pitchers’ duel last night, nothing less.
You Gay-roid haters, I just don’t understan’ you. 😉
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I’m not a Gay-roid haters, just a realist.
That’s why the Yanks played so well in the last month…he wasn’t playing so much.
He was batting .114 during the last 10 games.
Although it would be ironic if AJ pitches a gem tonight…not that I’m betting on it.
Me neither, but you never know.
I loved how the stadium was working against the Yanks last night… did you see some of those weird outfield hops?
Cost us at least a run.
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I hope tonight the Tigers intentionally walk Cano to get to A-Rod…maybe it will get him out of his funk.
More Words of Wisdom from the Most Statist President We’ve Ever Had:
(Transcript from Good Morning America interview)
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: You might have a new issue on your plate over the weekend. Bank of America now is doing a $5 service fee for using your debit cards. Drawing– a lot of outrage, a lot of questions. And basically the questions boil down to what Vikki Manko of Naperville, Illinois asks. “These are the types of things government should get involved in and put a stop to.” Can you put a stop to that?
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well– what we did was we put a stop through– The Financial Reform Act of them charging fees– for credit cards.
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: And the banks are saying–
PRESIDENT OBAMA: And so– Well– what– what the banks are saying is– that “Rather than take a little bit less of a profit. Rather than paying multimillion dollar bonuses. Let’s treat our customers right.” And this is exactly why we need this consumer finance– protection bureau that we set up that is ready to go. And what we need is a confirmation of the person I’ve appointed, Rich Cordray treasurer of Ohio. Back in Ohio, Republicans and Democrats both think he’s terrific and he’s fair. But this is exactly why we need somebody who’s sole job it is to prevent this kind of stuff from happening.
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: Can you stop this service charge?
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, you can stop it because it– if you– if you say to the banks, “You don’t have some inherent right just to– you know, get a certain amount of profit. If your customers– are being mistreated. That you have to treat them fairly and transparently.” And– and my hope is is that you’re going to see a bunch of– the banks, who say to themselves, “You know what? This is actually not good business practice.” Banks can make money. They can succeed, the old-fashioned way, by earning it. By lending to small businesses. By lending to consumers. By making sure that– you know, we are building the economy together. But– you know, without the kinds of protections that we’re starting to see the Republicans try to roll back– we’re going to continue to have these kinds of problems. And this is exactly– the sort of stuff that folks are frustrated by. This, by the way, is an example of the– the contrasting visions that we have. If– if– if– the Republican Party believes that we should do nothing to curb abuses on Wall Street and roll back regulations put in place to prevent the next big financial crisis, well, I’ve got a big difference with them. And I think the American people are going to be on my side on that.
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The guys is just… staggeringly unbelievable.
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Sickening.
The next lib-douche who says there’s no difference between Democrats and Republicans will feel the sharp end of my sword.
Dodd, Frank & Durbin – what do they have in common?
Occupy this.
Too funny. This asshat is responsible for the $5 fee and now he’s saying customers should leave B of A.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/durbin-to-bank-of-america-customers-get-the-heck-out-of-that-bank/
Dick Durbin… quite possibly worse than Chuck the Schmuck Schumer.
I wonder if Asshat knows that the US Gummint is on the hook for the bank he’s trying to put a run on?
What does he care, right? Not his money.
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I’ll never forgive “Chuck the Schmuck Schumer” when I saw him and whoever NY’s new Senator is, putting firemen and policemen on a podium and representing that (t)he(y) was somehow providing health care benefits not previously granted.
That was a bald face lie.
I’d like to know how NY (H. Clinton was there w/) Chuck the Schmuck Schumer’s and Boxer/Feinstein’s of CA keep their seats!
Flabbergasted, I tellz ya.
Obama is the takers champion. There is no problem that can be solved without the government. Not once has he ever championed business for getting the economy on track.
This guy has never worked a wealth generating day in his life.
The Financial Reform Act was basically a tax, a penalty, on the banks. How exactly did people think this would end? Of course they are going to pass it on to the consumers.
No need for the second helmet as my balls have already been blown off.
Jake, you just have a change of heart about 1050-1010? Or trying not to be a pig?
Looked like a lot of support at 1077. Still have some of those short ETF’s left… not completely convinced we’re done for now.
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those are some purdy charts…
Thanks, mon!
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I have gotten pummeled in my relatively small IRA load of gold and silver holdings. Less so in high yielding stocks. I have little understanding of a market that destroys mining stocks when the profit potential is so great with the metal at still incredible heights and fuel costs are in decline. How hated mining stocks are. I would buy more, and I might yet, but they consume 25% of the space inside the IRA as is and I am chicken of further demise.
I prefer not to trade but as we all know that is not the game dejour these days. Investing seems so quaint. So stupid. Best to allocate money to a line. To a mathematical equation.
I can only hope that once my gold and silver stocks return to zero that they somehow reverse in the next 20-30 years before I bid farewell to the workplace. Surely a RGLD or SLW will fly to the moon by then.
I can only hope that buying companies with good balance sheets, insider buys and sustainable dividends is good enough.
Bleier blogged that “hope must die before the bounce can stick.” We must be close.
Holding miners can certainly be a misery. But it’s crazy not to hold some at least. Make sure you have some dry powder, however.
Turn is soon, I think.
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I SMELL A BOUNCE COMING TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY A EPIC BLACK THURSDAY TYPE OF THING…PLEASE DISREGARD MY PREVIOUS BLACK THURSDAY CALL..THIS ONE IS FOR REAL!
..AAPL FINALLY BREAKING DOWN…SKULL FUCKED SEVERAL APPL FAN GIRLS TODAY..BOY WAS IT NICE
We are going to start calling you “The Boy Who Cried ‘Black Thursday!'”
One day, your Thursday will truly be black and no one will come running to bring you a light.
Save for Huggie, who will be on fire.
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lmfao…One of these thursdays its going to fucking happen!! I think this will be my third black thursday call…but hey…How many black thursdays do we get? If I can call black thursday and be right 1 out of 10 times, I will still consider that a victory.
On another note. I was looking for a bounce back to 1100 tomorrow, but looks like it bounced into close.Anyways…Bear markets do not end when you have no more sellers, bear markets end when you have no more buyers. and this bounce into close tells me we still have alot of buyers.
lol!
Verlander.
Hometown hero.
I think he’ll look good in pinstripes.
All the best players do.
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Here comes Wood on the Pony Express with the news!
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I am liking AEM here.
AJ, our season savior…I should really say Granderson with those two amazing catches, but he has been saving us all year…MVP, MVP, MVP.
Granderson is just Super-human… reminds me of Soriano back in the 2002 season… just so clutch!
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JG,
Have you let go any SKF yet and/or added to any of the PM miners?
Yes, I let got 2/3rds of my SKF yesterday and a hair more this afternoon. I am about 25% of where I was on Monday.
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Get ready for the “fuck you your dead” crash into close.Followed by Black Thursday..
Dont worry falks, this “fuck you your dead” rally is only temporary, its like a calm before the storm. Black thursday.
Im really excited about Black Thursday guys…Ill send post cards from the top of a large pile of dead bulls come tomorrow.
Your predictions are about as useful as tits on a boar hog.
Just wait till Black Thursday rips that boar hog your touching out of your hands!
Wow, if I had capitulated and loosed my precious yesterday, I’m not sure I would have been in control of my faculties today. Nice rebound. I see hope for more tomorrow.
I actually added GDX and GDXJ today.
And a buttload of QLD.
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Steve Jobs died. This country, the world, lost a truly great visionary. Despite signs that it was inevitable it is no less shocking. What a legacy he left. He will be greatly missed.
Get Jake. Love your stuff. Just pondering your thoughts as I puff on an Ashton and drinking some Jamison on a cool evening mourning our beloved icon Steve. Are you thinking we bounce down from the 20 day, 50 day, or having possible bottomed, we chug along. Actually curious on your thoughts. I’m thinking moving averages put in a top for us, but you’re the pro bro.
We’re still on “go” bro.
Not overbought yet on any of my screens.
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Okay. I love Jobs, but if anything has to be fixed on the iPhone, it’s the frickin spell checker.
In response to MD Line and Jake, I wonder if this is a foreshadowing of a much larger fifth wave impulse movement to the PM upside tinyurl.com/3kdzzr4?
I sort of expect what I’ve heard others suggest; i.e. “NO”, “China’s a top-heavy regulated economy,” they (reasonably) retort.
But, MeQuestions, doesn’t the market dictate that supply v. demand cares not for governing characterization or forces?