Rumors of a Great Depression Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

I depart for an undisclosed caribbean island on Monday. I’d like to apologize to all of you banana grippers for missing out on Monday’s crash. I know most of you will be positioned perfectly, especially Mr. Devildog. However, do not fear, as I intend to uphold the office of Blogfather while beachside. The very notion of neglecting the site, in exchange for conch cocktails, is reprehensible to me, despite the wishes of Mrs. Fly.

You should know by now, “The Fly” has a responsibility to all, due to iBankCoin’s dominant position atop the highest of the high echelon of financial sites in America and the universe. Before I depart, the iBC staff, and shadowy figures, will meet for dinner and drinks tomorrow, where the fate of your lives will be decided. According to the constitution of iBC, ALL READERS shall be under 23 hour surveillance and will be terminated upon the explicit and unanimous decision of the iBankCoin board, if said person is charged with crimes against iBC logic.

Finishing off the week, it appears I’ve returned from the dead, once again. Although I say a lot of cocky shit, I respect the market and do not intend to dive back into waterless swimming pools again. I started a new position in BEE today, due to my belief that John Paulson’s stocks have been targeted by short sellers, trying to break John’s back. John is a pimp and will survive this mess.

At the moment, I have a few super sized positions and they are performing okay today. I say “okay” because both WNR and GSVC are lower. DECK, EMN and CLF are buoying my portfolios today. I am looking to position into both LNG and WLT at some point. However, since I will be on a white sand beach next week, I’m guessing new positions are not in my near future. If you’ve been badly damaged over the past two weeks, this is your chance to reduce risk. Remember, “The Fly” thinks outside of the box and is a contrarian at heart. As most people get scared out of the markets today, I am staying long due to my belief that there are too many people leaning short. We’ve already crashed and now these people want to crash again. It’s nonsensical.

The gluttons shall be slaughtered as they eat chocolate cake with their bare hands.

In my estimation, we have a 2-3 week window of opportunity for greater upside, before more shit hits the fan. I intend to push the envelope here, make back all of my gains, then switch to cash and/or short in the Fall.

Rest well over the weekend and prepare for winship next week.

I bought 50,000 BEE.

Disclaimer: If you buy BEE because of this post, horrible, horrible things will happen over the weekend, leading to a crash on Monday. And, you may lose money.

Gentlemen, the squeeze is on. The catalysts that led to this collapse no longer exist. In short, they’ve been eliminated from the equation that is the stock market. As the bears press their bets, the level of pain increases exponentially, as the market spirals higher.

Remember, the very essence of this “dilemma” was very high Italian and Spanish 10 yr yields. The S&P downgrade of American credit was never an issue and it never will be a topic of importance.

As the iBC cognoscenti prepare for their annual summit in NYC, “The Fly” is ripping towards his annual highs. As you read this, I am +1.57% today, pushing my gains to 8.6% for the year. Just prior to collapse, I was +16%; watch me get there in no time at all—fuckface.

As for my bearish colleagues, DO NOT fuck with me today, as my arms feel as if they are made from cocaine, involuntarily punching plebs in the face without provocation. You were foolish for pressing your bets and will now roast in your own private hell for fucking with the ruling elite.

In short, get drunk; buy stocks again.

As you know, out of respect for paying members, I will no longer reveal OVERBOUGHT and OVERSOLD signals here on iBC. However, let me tell you how nutty this market has been, in the eyes of The PPT algos.

On 7/21/11, The PPT flagged the market to be OVERBOUGHT. That’s when I started moving over to cash, setting up for a buy the dip opportunity. On 7/27/11, The PPT flagged its first OVERSOLD signal. Full reminder, the success rate for PPT OS signals over the past 3 years is upwards of 90%, over dozens of signals. At any rate, as we now know, since then the market has been in the Twilight Zone, putting The PPT in a constant state of OVERSOLD, registering signals in 9 of the last 11 days.

On 8/8, it registered the 4th lowest technical score ever, at 1.11. That’s when I got serious about reallocating money to his market. We crashed, melted up, crashed again, then today. Unfuckingbelievable. It flagged TZA as OVERBOUGHT on 8/5/11 and 8/8/11, between $51 thru $64.27. It was first rated a buy on 7/26/11 at $34.20 (all data and performance stats are fully transparent inside PPT).

Going forward, the new algos in beta are built to adjust to different markets, using multiple time frames, all to be released with PPT 2.0 (coming this fall). I anticipate the market will stretch the outer-boundaries of The PPT scores, effectively setting new precedents and firming up the algos for future calamities, indeud. Without revealing the current score, I can tell you the higher probability trade is to be long here. However, in the event we trend lower, the potential downside is double the potential upside.

Considering the volatility and danger present in this market, at a minimum, I’d suspend all new buys until we get a pullback.

All of the depressionistas can enjoy their own personal depravity, without dragging us through the mud. There is justice and reason in the world after all. I am very pleased with today’s melt up and it’s not done going higher. I made, check this, over 8% today, led by WNR (I doubled down yesterday. Read my post). There are no reasons to be fearful of collapse. This was an elaborate, coordinated attack on capital markets. They caught the power elite off guard for a few weeks. But, we’re back in control now.

If you are short this tape, take heed to what I am about to tell you. Short squeezes do not end in one day. The pain you are feeling today will endure for weeks, if not months, providing some more false rumors on SocGen doesn’t disseminate after the bell.

With yesterday’s double down, my cost basis on WNR is a touch under $18. I cannot stress to you how important asset allocation is when investing. If I was “all in” WNR, on margin, I would have been wiped out. I had 10% of my assets in, rode it down 30%, doubled down—now I am nearly flat.

Don’t call it a come back. “The Fly” has been doing this shit for years.

NOTE: I am now +7% for the year.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytc0U2WAz4s 616 500]

Most of the people I see on CNBC are “trend slaves,” easy to trick, devoid of real trading acumen. For months, I’ve been talking about buying TLT, when in the lows $90’s. As a matter of fact, I’ve done so on many occasions. Immediately, the “inflationistas,” as I like to call them, crawl from out of their corn crops to espouse ridiculous opinions about inflation, runaway yields and a dollar going to zero. While on occasion, I tend to blog about such things as $100 tomatoes; my heart has never been behind a real inflation trade. Without wage inflation, everything you see here is manufactured. As you can see by the recent turmoil, deflation is still the biggest risk to the system, not inflation.

So here we are, TLT is up from $93 to $109 in a few short weeks and I am hearing so many people suggest buying, in order to protect assets. Are you people fucking insane? If you want to protect assets, put your money in a money market or leave it in cash. Buying bonds up here is absolute madness. You can very easily “enjoy” a 10% pullback from current levels. Remember, the same people who were telling you rates were going to 10% are telling you to buy TLT now.

They conform to whatever dire scenario dejour is available on any given day. They do not manage risk. Instead, they are bearshitters, outfitted with burlap hoodies and florescent green velcro pants.

This is reality. Italian and Spanish yields have plummeted. As a matter of fact, Spanish 10 yr yields are at the lowest since November of 2010. Italian yields are at pre-crisis levels, under 5%. And, despite all of the shit talking out of the rumor mills, regarding SocGen and France, French yields are in the low 3% range.

Now tell me, aside from a slow economy, what’s your reason to panic?

That’s more like it Gents. We’re up 300 now and punching people in the faces again. I gave back about 1% yesterday and find myself up 4.4% today, putting my year to date gains north of 3%. While it’s true, I was caught offguard, long into a fucking crash, I am on my fucking game right now, ready to book monster gains again. As of yesterday, I am 80% long, focused on a few select stocks.

Look, this is how I see it. Italian and Spanish yields are going LOWER. The SocGen rumors, thus far, have been negated. All Central Banks are providing liquidity and begging you to go long stocks. The jobs market has been showing signs of improvement. It’s very, very easy to panic, sell stocks, and hide under the kitchen cabinets. Nevertheless, more often than not, people get scared for NO FUCKING REASON. Over the past two weeks, people have become hysterical. They’re calling for Great Depressions and sound downright ridiculous. You cannot cheerlead the market higher when it is hitting new highs, then profess how fucking doomed we are when it hits lows. And the bears, on the plutonium from my spaceship, have it coming to them in the worst way possible. These men are practically circle jerking on their monitors, clamoring for blood.

Fuck those guys and to hell with you unoriginal trend slaves.

Talk to my WNR.

It’s truly unbelievable to me that Europe cannot hold another gain. Do not be surprised if we go negative too. This whole SocGen crisis, even if manufactured, is infecting the minds of investors. Without confidence in the banking sector, you will get a run on the banks. When you get a run of the banks, pandemonium (no Hulk Hogan) strikes.

I’d love to celebrate my Goldman upgrade of WNR this morning. After all, it’s not everyday when an analyst makes a smart call. Gasoline is much cheaper than it was a few weeks ago, but oil is even cheaper. The prospect for demand destruction is down significantly. Hence, the refiners are more attractive.

Back to the market. Whenever the true short squeeze hits, it will be insane. This shit you see here today cannot hold. It’s too tepid, too weak, to scare any short out of the market. We need another +400 day. We need it on monster volume and Europe needs to do their part. Don’t get me wrong; we can build from here and get to +400. But, we cannot fiddle around, +100, following a fucking -500 day and expect short sellers to cover.

They need to be slayed with African spears, bones ground into dust, ashes placed inside an urn, and then tossed inside a fucking incinerator. Anything short of that simply doesn’t get the adrenaline going.

Today’s tell is BAC.

Check this out. Aside from the market, great tragedies have been occurring at La Casa del Fly. For example: just yesterday, one of my light switches broke. And, if you could believe it or not, my fucking cleaning lady destroyed my bathroom sink. I don’t know how she did it. But I have a gigantic crack in the sink that can only be remedied by replacing the whole counter top +new sink. Perhaps I might need to buy a new vanity too. Developing…as always.

Just last week my refrigerator decided to stop working. I had to replace it. Chalk up another $3k. And, my oven stopped working too. I had a repair man fix it for a modest $400. And, one of my kitchen cabinets crumbled to pieces. I had a new one custom made for only $550, sans installation. These things are not normal and “The Fly” wants to know: WHATTHEFUCKISGOINGONHERE?

I don’t have time for this extra shit, while markets are plunging and shit, zombies trying to eat my brains and all. There are lots of gangsters I am fighting on Twitter and it’s a dangerous world, as you know. If God is listening, please, respectfully, cut this shit out already.

In other news, I am cooking a mean red sauce now, fortified with low end French wine. It should be delectable and delightful (NO HOMO).