As you know, out of respect for paying members, I will no longer reveal OVERBOUGHT and OVERSOLD signals here on iBC. However, let me tell you how nutty this market has been, in the eyes of The PPT algos.
On 7/21/11, The PPT flagged the market to be OVERBOUGHT. That’s when I started moving over to cash, setting up for a buy the dip opportunity. On 7/27/11, The PPT flagged its first OVERSOLD signal. Full reminder, the success rate for PPT OS signals over the past 3 years is upwards of 90%, over dozens of signals. At any rate, as we now know, since then the market has been in the Twilight Zone, putting The PPT in a constant state of OVERSOLD, registering signals in 9 of the last 11 days.
On 8/8, it registered the 4th lowest technical score ever, at 1.11. That’s when I got serious about reallocating money to his market. We crashed, melted up, crashed again, then today. Unfuckingbelievable. It flagged TZA as OVERBOUGHT on 8/5/11 and 8/8/11, between $51 thru $64.27. It was first rated a buy on 7/26/11 at $34.20 (all data and performance stats are fully transparent inside PPT).
Going forward, the new algos in beta are built to adjust to different markets, using multiple time frames, all to be released with PPT 2.0 (coming this fall). I anticipate the market will stretch the outer-boundaries of The PPT scores, effectively setting new precedents and firming up the algos for future calamities, indeud. Without revealing the current score, I can tell you the higher probability trade is to be long here. However, in the event we trend lower, the potential downside is double the potential upside.
Considering the volatility and danger present in this market, at a minimum, I’d suspend all new buys until we get a pullback.
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The Fly is God.
The Zombie is pandering.
i think so many people are flabbergasted and waiting it out that its just computer heyday all day everyday.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#chart5:symbol=^gspc;range=19870102,19890403;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
thats black monday and the aftermath
black monday, but a longer view:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#chart9:symbol=^gspc;range=19840702,19891002;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
one of the most dramatic events in market history, probably caused plenty of suicides, ruined plenty of men. But if you draw a line from the time before the big run-up that started in early 86 to the post-black monday area, its a straight line. Market just ran up too far and then tanked back to its line.
Kass posted the other day this:
“I started the show by answering a question that Melissa Lee asked of BTIG’s Dan Greenhaus. (Dan ran out of time to answer the question!). Mel wanted to know how the stock market performed during previous short periods of high-volume selling and large price drops. There have been 22 occurrences when these conditions coexisted (large volume and greater-than-13% price drops in under two weeks). The mean return after six months was 10.2% and over 20% a year out. If one ignores the data points during the Great Depression, the gains would have been more pronounced. This is one of the reasons why I suggested that a bottom was put in place this week. ”
So ignoring the great depression era stuff… thats promising.
Bernie Cavanaugh had a nice report out earlier showing the previous times when markets declined 11% in 3 days. excluding 3 periods that occured during the ramp-up of world war 2 (fairly unusual circumstances) the 12 month returns were 18-45%. Biggest return being from Nov 20, 2008.
I saw a third comment about it also.
Woody’s recent post about it suggests otherwise, I think he modeled SPY making a new 200 day low and it was ugly.
Well said. But with regards to the recent repeated oversold signals, I don’t think the PPT algo ever anticipated a market-funded bailout of Italy and the other European banks…
Your PPT is marvelous, BTW
Congrats on WNR today Fly, way to hold to your conviction. -also kind of good to see Goldman calls having some real influence again believe it or not.
We’ll see if ( BP ) takes it on the chin at the opening – as GS now downgrades ‘BP Plc to Neutral today (Friday)
Citi upgrading ATI and PCX from Sell to Hold as well, so the follow through on those guys will be interesting to watch after the near WNR-like monster days they had today.
PPT hitting it’s mark hey?
Fly- now you know why john bollinger is not a billionaire.
308- goldman downgraded AMP today, take a look at the influence.
???? AMP was a downgrade to BUY from CL Buy, with a $57 tgt (the stock was at $41,00) not exactly expecting a big move down there.
I’m not some Goldman cheerleader by any means,at all. Just good to see that GS analyst calls are not getting totally passed off as they have been the last year or so..
What does John Bollinger have to do this?
he didnt become an billionaire even though he created a sound investment theory
OR
market’s a bitch, yo
I just realized, we are going down hard tomorrow. These Wall Street cats are making cheddar off this volatility, so why end the party prematurely? On a “typical” day, we are seeing ~7% min- max ranges. These cats are making what would be acceptable annual returns on a daily basis, buying the well defined support and selling the explicitly clear resistance. And they are doing it on a daily basis. They can keep up the shenanigans for a few more sessions, before public outrage leads to a high frequency trading witch hunt, so why the hell not?
i agree.
Cats?
Pigs.
What’s that? You wanted a re-cap of tonight’s overlong Presidential Debates AND my take on the gold markets??
Welllllll….Step right up, and see the show!
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Um, no.
There’s always auto-fellating classes w. Cap, I guess.
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Nymph’s Bot…..I follow the NYSE Advance/Decline Volume for amusement, even though I am longterm bear. Per my Bot..bias is still to the downside, but the weakest it has been in the last two weeks. For Support tomorrow I am looking for a Advance-Decline Volume of the NYSE of -1,311,000,000 and for resistance anything positive, if it becomes positive then bias to the upside will cause me pain for about 21 days…we will see.
Oh well, what’s another 21 days in the 2.5-year scheme of things?
Po..1129ish is the 50% retrace of the 2007/2009 levels…we are getting closer to that…lol.
So when we get there you’ll only be down 50% over the last 2.5 years? Congrats.
FLY, indices down more than up in this week. What’s your take on this?
hum , thats all i got to say, if u play u pay,
its the way it always goes ,
there was a guy that stated that no one should make is 250 thousand a year, no one needs more than that, i say bull shit,
Depends where they live. Shit if you live in the philipeans for example you only need like $700 a month and you get beachfront property. If you live in new York you better have 250k a year or not drink coffee or have debt or go out to eat or anything.
ment more than; sorry
ment or meant?
ok mr. spell can u understand my post or just give grief? my point is well stated , i called the down turn did u, dont fuck with me.
You have to realize that the people that correct spelling feel physical pain just by the sight of a word that is incorrect. Their neuroassociation that allows them to become good spellers is to associate words in their mind with feelings. If you’re going to spell wrong you might as well kick these people in the balls…
Whitffh thhasy bieng siad… I say it’s thier fult and Rey shud stop kikking us back in the from of spell correctionnns, cuz it’s annoying as hels to not let people spll the way they want to. Fuck y’all I make up my own lang gwage.
IOW — “Bring your ‘A Game,’ or stay home.”
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Important product update:
This flashlight just arrived today. I paid $9 bucks for it. Nine fucking bucks. It contains one very powerful CREE LED bulb, running off of one AA battery, and the whole thing appears to be of solid construction. I can’t comment on how long it lasts on the one battery, but nobody reported anything to that effect in the reviews.
http://www.meritline.com/focus-zoom-lens-cree-q3-flashlight-torch-light-lamp—p-66230.aspx#2
I wish I could buy an American made flashlight that was this awesome, or at all. Let’s see what we can find that’s made in America, or at least sold by an American company:
This dinky ass “CNC Machined” flashlight for $125: http://www.arcflashlight.com/titanium-aaa.shtml
A tactical flashlight that puts out about the same light: http://www.bluesheepdog.com/2007/11/01/fn-tactical-flashlights-150-lumens-in-a-compact-package/
The Maglight XL100 is about half as bright and runs on three AAA batteries: http://www.amazon.com/Maglite-100-Flashlight-Presentation-Gray/dp/B003UR7QIY
I couldn’t find any American made flashlight that are as bright, or that have an elliptical lens which lets you focus a wide or a narrow beam. It’s possible that the American ones last longer or are more durable, but for the price difference, I could buy 10 – 20 of the CREE LED flashlights and take my chances.
good call ive been workin on these for 3 yrs
Yeah, but you can whoop the dogshit out of somebody with a real man’s Maglite:
http://www.faucetdepot.com/faucetdepot/ProductDetail.asp?Product=20078&AffiliateID=GoogleDirectFeed
the fashizzle dude, workin on it
CREE is an American company, you know?
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True, true.
Good info, thanks. also incentive to revisit CREE before it gets Flycocked.
my son employs 3 guys , he rolls 750.000 a year, he keeps 80000, the new laws will put him to 40,000 whats his incentive? so he should fire his help, go on his own , fuck his help,
Rightwing catastrophising. Your numbers are ridiculous.
It’s what people really do.
That’s your defense? He just told you what his son is going to do.
Do you think unemployment comes out of nowhere?
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Maybe this can help my fellow plebs some …
“Around noon the SPX hit the levels we have been looking for to confirm the Int. wave iii low at 1102. The rally, however, climbed all the way up to our original Int. wave iv target at the OEW 1187 pivot. This market is now sufficiently overbought to complete Int. iv and start an Int. wave v decline into the downtrend low. It has been quite volatile, as we all know, and attempting to pinpoint a reversal point is quite difficult. Short term support is at the 1168 and then 1146 pivot ranges. Overhead resistance is at the 1176 and 1187 pivot ranges. Short term momentum is now overbought for the first time in three weeks. Next, a decline below SPX 1160 suggests that Int. wave v is underway.”
Some think wave iv could take us to 1195-1200 before wave v begins, though based on the ES (down 10) we will continue the sell off from today’s close into the open tomorrow. And if we breach 1160 how low could wave v take us?
“There is an OEW pivot at 1090. Certainly looks like a cluster should 1186 hold as the Int. [wave] iv high. Next uptrend SPX 1200 ?”
So … max upside for our current wave up (Intermediate wave iv) is 1200 but today’s high at 1187 may have been the peak. Breaching 1160 would confirm wave iv has indeud peaked/ended and signal that the final wave down (Intermediate wave v) for this leg has begun with a primary target decline to 1102 and then 1090 should 1102 fail to hold. A reversal is expected from either of those pivots but breaching 1090 could open the flood gates to more downside.
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/08/11/thursday-update-293/
i agree with ur post, why the bs on my spelling?
thought it was funny that you made another error in correcting your previous error …. only you could bring your “B” game when trying to maintain an “A” game policy … Hahaha!
im all about the b game,
i draw lines with craolas, then take logic into decision, i react to reality, then put into action, people good in math sometimes suck at english, fact.people good at english suck at math..why make a petty issue out of this do u want to make money or correct my spelling,
chill out … just bustin your balls. We are aligned when it comes to the task at hand my friend.
ok my bad, was gettin my dander up fer no reason, im just tryin to help. others and myself
no one can call this tape, i saw down but cant see a direction now, its all minulated bs
a reversal in europe now after opening down initially … interesting
Many of us are looking for help, new ideas or perhaps like to look at things through someone else’s perspective. Being new to the site, when one see posts that have shitloads of spelling and grammar multiples errors, one tend to take that person less seriously. Bring your A game and quit being so fuckin lazy.
“sees”
“tends”
I’m guessing ESL, so give him a break.
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This week has taken 3 years off my life…Now that’s how obamacare is supposed to work…This thing feels so orchestrated…London Riots? Whats that all about? Agent provocateurs stirring it up…It may be time to go set up a polynesian stock exchange
it’s subterfuge wilco,what better excuse could one makeup,in order to rationalize and implement qe3. lets say the general public found out that jp morgan was gonna close the doors and no one gets there money back.but the people in the uk hear it as union workers going on strike and people in the streets are inciting acts of rioting. we dont know the whole story about the banks across the pond,and we dont know why,that in the uk’s rioting,if it was because of the employment situation,or that banks are going belly up that are tbtf. now do the riots over there give reason to the fed to stimulate? why waste a good crisis.and if there isnt a crisis, make one up……………grant park 1968
Wow people are still awake other than me at this hour? 4;00am here in Midwest.
Or just waking up. So you want coffee with your McMuffin or you just gonna stand there looking stupid?
Personally I would have expected the PPT to gove a “”WTF!!!!!” rating at some point this week but a 1.11 is pretty close to it saying. “your markets are doing standup comedy and if I had a sense of humor I would say ROTFL! But I don’t so I’ll just give it one tick away from a negative number.”
Mean reversion trading strategies don’t work in a market like this. Does that truly surprise you?
hey cramer,is that you
The PPT was saying oversold for several days yet the market was tanking with impunity.
So it is important to realize these “tools” are meaningless if the market wants to go in either direction.
B.W.W.
Right you are. The market is being led by news and rumors. Major declines have historically occured from oversold conditions.
Let’s hope for some more short squeezing today!
Looks like we resume the uptrend toward 1200, no?
Umm, my WNR got a boner from the US retail sales report: “(sales) figures were bolstered by a 1.6 percent jump in gasoline station sales, in part reflecting the higher cost of fuel.”
EOG … Thanks Cramer, been buying that baby since Monday, my fav shale oil play.
Confidence numbers lowest in years! It’s no wonder with the debacle that took place with Congress regarding the debt ceiling. Hopefully the market will overlook this.
Europe seems to be holding onto huge gains!
This Market wants to grind higher!
Come on Baby!
Here we go!
Yeah Baby Yeah!
Thumbs up to all thumbs down!
I see a decending channel since the first few mins. of trading but S&P 1171 has been solid support, crack that with volume and we head lower.
Not today boy!
Market is doing a sqeeze pop play, shorts about to get burned…
Nasdaq Target at least 2560.00 if it pops!
Thar…..she blows!
Consumer confidence bullshit…;.
I finally see someone on this thread that has worse grammar than
myself. But you gotta give the boy credit for trying.
Timely post, considering today’s Dilbert.
http://www.dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/100000/30000/0000/600/130661/130661.strip.print.gif
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_110812.html
Hmmmm… panic button relief?
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Gold down, stocks up!
See the correlation?
Sure, that works when gold is a fear hedge. But gold is not being bought simply for a fear hedge.
ZIRP is gonna getcha!
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thanks for updating info ….