Most of the people I see on CNBC are “trend slaves,” easy to trick, devoid of real trading acumen. For months, I’ve been talking about buying TLT, when in the lows $90’s. As a matter of fact, I’ve done so on many occasions. Immediately, the “inflationistas,” as I like to call them, crawl from out of their corn crops to espouse ridiculous opinions about inflation, runaway yields and a dollar going to zero. While on occasion, I tend to blog about such things as $100 tomatoes; my heart has never been behind a real inflation trade. Without wage inflation, everything you see here is manufactured. As you can see by the recent turmoil, deflation is still the biggest risk to the system, not inflation.
So here we are, TLT is up from $93 to $109 in a few short weeks and I am hearing so many people suggest buying, in order to protect assets. Are you people fucking insane? If you want to protect assets, put your money in a money market or leave it in cash. Buying bonds up here is absolute madness. You can very easily “enjoy” a 10% pullback from current levels. Remember, the same people who were telling you rates were going to 10% are telling you to buy TLT now.
They conform to whatever dire scenario dejour is available on any given day. They do not manage risk. Instead, they are bearshitters, outfitted with burlap hoodies and florescent green velcro pants.
This is reality. Italian and Spanish yields have plummeted. As a matter of fact, Spanish 10 yr yields are at the lowest since November of 2010. Italian yields are at pre-crisis levels, under 5%. And, despite all of the shit talking out of the rumor mills, regarding SocGen and France, French yields are in the low 3% range.
Now tell me, aside from a slow economy, what’s your reason to panic?
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObMXmjEg9B8 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
FIG
Back with the options needle in my arm…just paid 1.25 for YOKU Aug 24’s. Game on.
Doubled up in half hour…giddyup!
Stagflation caused by supply shock. It would kill the demand and might scare me. So far I think it’s only a distant possibility.
Fly love your blog. Keep battling. Crawled out of my bunker yesterday to SHORT the shit out of the 20 Treasury. Missed TLT too, but going to pick some up on the SHORT side. Who in their right mind would loan money to USA for 20 years for 3.05%?
I am not paniced, but been searching for that answer too. Best I tell the banks sold CDS on the soverign bonds. Well, as we all know those can be powerful nukes. Can you tell me which banks are holding them and then the tricky part is can one quantify the risk/exposure. That is the only reason i see for the real “sick” valuations on financials. Thus, it is dragging down even the regionals as it is systematic risk to the banking system if it were to implode as then the banks wouldnt trust each other and lending to each other freezes…
Who knows. To Arms…
Front run the elites desire to calm the panic by purchasing XIV.
tried that once. No thanks.
This is exactly the time (when the VIX futures are in backwardation) that one should be buying.
I got WNR
Great call.
all in on WNR!!!
I did that at 9.90 when you were touting it at 10 bucks.
Now I’m out $5 grand.
caveat emptor
As rational and well-reasoned as a 3x inverse Dylan Rattigan.
The panic selling and fear mongering since Monday has been ludicrous. It was apparent the ECB would backstop Spanish/Italian bonds on Friday afternoon; this following a much better than expected jobs report. Then, the chodes over at S&P downgrade a country enjoying record-low yields, a printing press, 100% of its debt denominated in its own currency, and a chairman who’s been on a helicopter buying spree. No one’s expecting DOW 14,000, but good Lord has there been significant overreaction.
pedro took the words out of my mouth
Do not get suckered into this rally.
Purchasing VXX and TZA calls at the close.
Europe far from over. More news coming.
WNR and CVI excellent calls.
B.W.W.
Ahhhh, see how sweet they are, all asleep. The Chinese and S Korea Pension Funds that pumped the market last night are all asleep and the “Risk On” currencies are all fading. Those Funds bought so much last night and are tuckered out so I expect them to sleep tonight too….imho, Pension Funds can’t save the world by pumping the market…but that is just me.
Did you cover all of your end of the world short positions yet?
Yogi, nope…still have hopes of the US Dollar taking out 76.00 resistance. Did you notice that the world doesn’t want our 30 year debt, those interest rates are going to have to go up.
It’s supposed to be about making money, not being right.
Plenty of people still buying our debt….
amazing how 1 day of + action can completely change the Big picture….until tomorrow that is…holding through the weekend?…..haha
China is doing a Clam… http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=479632&type=Business
It will be interesting to watch the race to down.
So what stocks can move up hard given more short covering into the weekend? Can ppt tell this?
Certainly.
The Fly speaks truth to stupidity and yodeling Austerians.
I’m in a panic because they screwed up my lunch order. I will sell the spooz mercilessly until I get my hummus.
European bank run is the risk.
All the longs are in the “high probability” trade, because, let’s face it, these kind of cataclysmic events are rare, and investors are frightened by them far more often than they actually occur. Still, the similarities to 2008 are erie, and the risk is as high as it’s ever been. As The Fly says, you can’t choose your reality. If it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen.
agreed
tbt, anyone?
Good call.
holy crap, WNR is going bananas.. +14%
i thing sellers r tired, but maybe buyers too, im stickin to cash. JTU today im scared, im scared ill miss the rally , im scared to play the short side. there seems to alot of balls in the air. this europe thing is perplexing, whos doin what.
Am I being moderated? Why? For poking fun at yodeling Austerians?
lol
thats funny.
I think my original comment was funnier, but it’s in “TIME OUT”.
It’s out of “TIME OUT” see above. (Maybe it wasn’t so funny after all…) I still like the yodeling Austerians though.
at least the range didnt steal ur pic-a nic basket
Long $RRGB & $DV for tonight’s earnings – still 100 minutes to jump aboard.
Also longed $TBT.
These trades do a Euro-Riot to Ur account. Plan carefully.
RRGB,,,,yummmmmmmmmmmmmm
After hours making $DV look like a hold into next week to mitigate the damage. BTW: I cash in my earnings usually w/in 1st 30 minutes of open (if not 5 minutes FYI).
Yay for the Red Robin.
Two words:
WNR. INDEUD.
I tap dance on the face on inflationtards. NOgint
so does the bernanke,thats why he’s gonna deflate.
You do your dance, Hugh, I’ll just sit here and continue to bank coin as I’ve done on a relatively regular basis since I’ve shown up on these pages.
_________
No offense intended Senator Gint, I’m a big fan of “doing the Gint” as well, but not as much as “doing the Hugh”.
As I see it the economy will crater in three stages (we’re at stage 2)
1. Treasuries rally, gold falls (think September 2008)
2. Treasuries rally, gold rallies (think now)
3. Treasuries crater, gold moonshots
Stage 3 will arrive at some point. Perhaps earlier, perhaps later. Then “doing the Hugh” will be as unfashionable as dancing disco after the 70s. But until then why not “shake ya groove thang” and do the Hugh?
OBIT UPDATE:
Deceased former public library computer hog and longtime camouflage clothing enthusiast DevilDog was briefly reanimated today like a plate of squid sushi, apparently solely that a group of vindictive longs could taunt his corpse with something the spokesman for the group called, “the last laugh.”
Using a car battery and splash of malt liquor to effect reanimation, the spokesman for the group then read from a prepared statement:
“Ha,” he said.
ROFL.
That’s good stuff, Anton.
_______
Fun to do as my mood lifts with the market. (Still mostly cash, though.) Thanks.
I shorted TLT right before the 30 year auction, and banked coin. Now I’m flipping a coin to see if I cover my ripping longs @ close.
Encouraging tape, taking a few profits where the sector doesn’t smell right(to me), gloating about some nifty recoveries BUT, still at Defcon 1.
bag it and run…we will see this pattern a few more times
earth quake hit japan,
So? That happens like every day.
70% of net equity invested in WNR on Friday. Panicked at 13.5. Rebought for 15. Lung explosion on Monday for 13.6. Now I sit and watch. FML I should have read your disclaimers.
Fuck…Here comes President Nitwit from a podium in Michigan…..brace thyself…..
think he’ll take credit for aone?
Yes…he will look left, speak rhetorical bullshit for 15 seconds, then look right, speak more rhetorical bullshit, and somehow in the course of 10 minutes, say absolutely nothing, offer nothing, and head out to Blue Heron farms…..
This guy is pathological. He just said the economy was improving in 2009, and 2010…..seriously, who the hell is this guy? Someone help me, I’m gonna have an aneurism….
“..this downgrade you’ve been reading about.”……LOL…….
what he says ,lol…
It WAS improving, you dunce. Check GDP numbers. I can’t help it
Odumma is a Republican.
Yes, I forgot about those hellacious 500k jobs a month being created (Biden’s words).
1T in stimulus and worse employment. Some improvement. Would hate to see what 2T would of looked like…
Jesus….I thought it read “President Newt”….NO MORE ENERGY DRINKS
Closed out my overnight position on TNA for 12%. Not bad for a 16 hour hold.
God Bless America!
Rut-Roh … Obama!
Prepare for a dip …. DOW 11110 as he started speaking. Let’s see where it ends up when he’s done, shall we?
did he just say fuckin republicans,? lol,
Hahaha …. we only dipped 10 pts and actually rose 10 pts at one point … he’s getting better at saying nothing to upset the street.
Craigslist scam? I have an item for sale on Craigslist, and got this e-mail–
“” Hello,
Thanks for the prompt response to my mail.I will be buying from you so please kindly withdraw the advert from C..LIST. Please be informed that i will be paying with a certified check from my Bank as i just moved to my new home from Aspen Hill Of Maryland on a job transfer..I will need the following details to mail the payment as soon as possible.
1.Name to be on the payment ,Home address, City , State , Zip Code , Cell phone # ,I will make arrangements for the pick up as soon as you have your money . I am completely satisfied with the advert and the payment will be delivered within 2-3? working days.** I use a hearing impaired phone # and will receive your calls via email **
Dr Rxxxx Sxxxxxxxxxz”””
(I altered the name)
Trust him.
No, not at all.
Sounds legit.
But to be safe be sure to give him your social security no, date of birth, Drivers license number, and the name of your Bank (but not the account no, he can get that later).
Dr Rxxxx Sxxxxxxxxxz sounds like a neurosurgeon from Pakistan.
PS Just joking around- no idea if it is legit.
I forgot to add that the drawer (maker) of the cashiers check can still stop payment of the check.
He has to sign an affidavit at the bank it’s drawn upon (his bank).
It rarely happens but when it does it sucks for the payee.
The only sure fire way to be sure the funds are there is with a certified check.
Not sure how expensive your item is.
If you can’t tell that’s a scam, i’d like to introduce you to my nigerian cousin. He’s a prince, really.
I’ve got a Spanish Cousin that said I won the Spanish Lottery. Really. He just wanted the same info also. I’m waiting for my $5,000,000. It should be here any day now.
An alternative to buying precious metals is to hit up your local Exchange Dealer and buy boat loads of Aussies or Kiwis. Instead of trading Forex, where the the price action can be insanely intense w/leverage, the cash just sits there until this time next year, when these two solid economies continue to increase in value by at least 5 cents each.
Over the long term picture (5 year), absent actual change, a hedge on the USD’s century long slide down v. the gold standard.
Just saying.
Attention autofellators …. all autofellators stay on alert!!!
The risk to shorts is that we BO from 1170 and make a run for 1250 … this could happen very quickly and certainly before September ….
Autofellators prepare for duty ….
“Are you smoking this shit so’s to escape from reality? Me, I don’t need this shit. I AM reality. There’s the way it ought to be, and there’s the way it is. Elias was full of shit. Elias was a crusader. Now, I got no fight with any man who does what he’s told. But when he don’t, the machine breaks down. And when the machine breaks down, we break down. And I ain’t gonna allow that… in any of you. Not one.”
2 hit shit. da best
i like smokin fish
wonder what lenny dykstras doin?
Obama must be coming to MV directly from JCI cause his entourage is flying into Otis as I type via military transports … Caddy SUV’s for the secret service?
With bling bling spinnahs, too.
_______