I am officially up 120% on my DECK 92.5 calls. Believe me, trading options is not as easy as I make it look. Throughout the years, I’ve definitely lost more than I’ve made. Nevertheless, I am making up lost ground rather quickly these days.
The market is weak due to Italian and Spanish bond spreads blowing out versus German. I don’t see how this will be resolved amicably. I was discussing these important matters with my wife last night, who knows nothing about finance. Her strong recommendation was for Europe and the U.S. to “take their medicine” and restructure their debt. I tried to explain to her how that would mess up the status quo and how I would prefer the old can kick. Then she retorted, “why, so our children will have to deal with these issues later?”
I find it funny that someone, who knows nothing about finance or how the debt crisis is proceeding, could be so confident about what needs to be done, yet global policy makers are juggling balls while their respective countries get burned.
As much as I want things to continue “as is” because it’s convenient for me, I suppose it cannot. Eventually, hard decisions, by brave people, are going to have to be made. Everyone will take a hit, no matter what. However, we will be better for it later, after the losses are taken and things are “reset.”
For now, we will continue the charade, making believe the banks are solvent, until the tipping point. For Europe, that tipping point is a lot closer than people think. No algorithm will be able to predict failure, so you’re gonna have to use intuition and common sense going forward.
In the meantime, I am banking stupid coin on DECK here, as it is my largest position. A sharp rally is coming. We just need a spark to get this car, made from dynamite sticks, going again.
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