That’s more like it Gents. We’re up 300 now and punching people in the faces again. I gave back about 1% yesterday and find myself up 4.4% today, putting my year to date gains north of 3%. While it’s true, I was caught offguard, long into a fucking crash, I am on my fucking game right now, ready to book monster gains again. As of yesterday, I am 80% long, focused on a few select stocks.
Look, this is how I see it. Italian and Spanish yields are going LOWER. The SocGen rumors, thus far, have been negated. All Central Banks are providing liquidity and begging you to go long stocks. The jobs market has been showing signs of improvement. It’s very, very easy to panic, sell stocks, and hide under the kitchen cabinets. Nevertheless, more often than not, people get scared for NO FUCKING REASON. Over the past two weeks, people have become hysterical. They’re calling for Great Depressions and sound downright ridiculous. You cannot cheerlead the market higher when it is hitting new highs, then profess how fucking doomed we are when it hits lows. And the bears, on the plutonium from my spaceship, have it coming to them in the worst way possible. These men are practically circle jerking on their monitors, clamoring for blood.
Fuck those guys and to hell with you unoriginal trend slaves.
Talk to my WNR.
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Market is probably going to limp lower from here until August 26 Jackson Hole speech.
No one has any confidence that governments around the world are making any significant changes, and the retail guy is certainly not going to save this market.
Better chance of change and a real rally in September as the grownups get back from the Hamptons.
i am booking profits…fuck it.
Maximum boom boom. Indeud!
yo fly change that shit up top from lower to higher.
Idiot, yields are dropping like a stone.
Yea, but it’s the ECB that’s buying them, just like they said they would.
I don’t know what’s going to happen any more than anybody else, but a European banking collapse seems to be on the table. If it doesn’t happen there will be the rally to end all rallies, if it does, well…
The die has been cast.
By hook or crook. Yields are still dropping. You cannot choose your reality.
nah not yeilds, the top of the whole page where u say “i have seen the future… and it has lower stock prices in it” i’ll let the idiot comment slide this one time.
So if the meatball soup is still alive we should rally 700 today
If we don’t at least scare 400, we drop much more tomorrow. The machines are in charge now and they are learning.
The fundamentals that my companies are trading at are ridiculous right now. I cannot time bottoms and tops, so I held through this all along as I too believe there is NO FUCKING REASON for this panic. I keep looking for a decent trade but everything seems to be moving up in tandem. I broke my rules and have next to no cash to buy up this blood. Just waiting for RY and CM results towards the end of the month.
thoughts on PE compression here?
US yields low, PE going to infifntiy??? Just asking?
I don’t see a case for compression. No recession, imo.
double dip dude,coming to a shopping mall,anywhere usa.people will be doing their christmas shopping at dltr. and burger king whoopers will be the christmas eve fare
Nothing to do with compression or expansion. 2 things cause compression…
1)asset allocation (out of stocks and into other investments)
2)liquidy contraction (disinflation/deflation)
now you could argue that people will have lower growth expectation and this allocate capital elsewhere but there is no direct argument in this economy between jobs and stock prices or spending habits and stock prices. Only an indirect one.
Besides even if that happens by only looking at the macro you ignore whether it’s priced in already or not…
I think liquidity from this point should increase (although there certainly is some risk of a repeat of 2008)and shifts from bonds into stocks should occur for the time being.
Anyone else notice that 30-year yields have fallen 75 basis points in two weeks yet 30-year mortgages have barely fallen 10 basis points?
These guys are like the oil companies…raise them quick, drop them slow.
Well said! Everyone should take a Prozac and relax for a second instead of dreaming up worst case scenarios and jumping off tall buildings.
Hey Fly, Enjoy your gains, I don’t expect them to last. Come next week you will be replacing more kitchen cabinets as we have already learned they crumble when you hide under the counter.
The cabinet at La Casa del Fly crumbled when I sat on taking a break from repairing the sink the cleaning lady broke.
Now just go away with your rude comments.
We got another 1000 pts upside to go. This is nothing.
European markets finished higher on expectations of a short selling ban, US markets followed. Deja vu U.S. 2008. In 2008 we got a one day pop out of the short selling ban news and then proceeded into a murderhole. Lacking any additional good news I don’t expect this relief rally will last any longer than a day.
With market screaming higher now, why is VXX not behaving?
Because the risk hasn’t gone away, despite speculators positioning for a rally.
BACKWARDATION IS IN EFFECT
also its in steep backwardation…
VXX tends to fall when mood changes. Like last summer after the flash crash, on a monday, stocks were up like 4% on news of a greek bailout, and VXX dropped considerably. It dropped a great deal after the fed discussion earlier because for a moment it felt like a mood change.
But after a 500 point drop yesterday the fear has probably set in for a longer time. The upside, if you are short VXX, is that if we creep up from here long dated futures will probably stay high for a time (as they did last year), because nobody trusts the rally (as they didn’t last year). Its untrusted rallies that lead to the biggest drops in VXX because they create the situations that lead to the largest contango.
VXX would not have decayed as dramatically in, say, 2006 as it did in the rallies from the 2009 to 2010 lows.
Also, for the moment, backwardation is immense…
all -in-all, were just another brick in the wall
fuck the brics, i need to cut some tile,and the wet saw motor seized up, fuckin go buy a wet saw for 10 cuts,brics my ass…….. i need a sammich
just buy a grinder w/ a stone cutting blade, its under a hundo
been out already lookin, when i take her to work i’ll run over to hd see what they got in my range. thats on top of her changing mind twice on tile already bought. nine things all at once, when it rains……….
Still having problems staying above this 1150-1160 level. If we close under 1160 I would not want to be long this market going into tomorrow.
if the ecb puts in a back stop then what?
then what? then they just get to do what the bernanke did,and it will be their turn to put out the punch bowl
I see no conviction either way. In fact we are losing steam if anything.
Market should be much higher based on the oversold conditions. Europe is still in deep trouble. The ECB can’t buy bonds at this pace for very long.
IMO, Europe is just delaying the inevitable for awhile. Their financial meltdown is all but assured. I am flat right now and hoping for more buying so that I can short these financial dogs.
ok but what if the world outs a back stop on italy, spain.
The facially challenged Harvey Golub, former CEO of AIG, says “providing free contraceptives
and health screening for women will RAISE THE COST OF HEALTH CARE” (caps mine)
Harvey, Harvey. You STUPID sonofabitch. What about the costs of abortions, pregnancy care,
delivery, the first few year’s of a child’s health care, and cancer treatment? You fuckin’ MORON, Harvey.
Harvey proves yet again that the rich are stupid motherfuckers, and should be cleaning terlets.
yes even stupid people have big coin.it’s a shame.lol
$FTSE to stop futures trading tonight….wonder what the issue is?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/milan-bourse-says-will-not-resume-futures-trading-thursday-ftse-mib
as this news spreads, what will happen to the mkt, up because u cant short, down because of the reason there doin it?
The market can’t drop if no one can trade. Problem solved!
good point,
Cowards!
Please elaborate.
lol, thanks
Market action reminds of the last week of September as we bounced off the 1100 level a few days having dropped from the 1250 level of early September and 1300 level of August. We proceeded to drop from 1100 to 839 that 1st week of October. Coincidence that we are so close to the 1100 level and keep bouncing here ? At the same time we are having trouble in the 1150-1175 area which is what happened late Sept. 2008. If you figure that trading these days is mostly by a bunch of computer, you have to figure these computers are programmed to trade around certain historic levels. Once we break 1100 we may have no support perhaps till the 800s.
It was painful to buy into the market these past few days but it had to be done…
Magician Fly, what say you of a $TLT drop?
Good god look at wnr go…I bought the wrong stocks dammi
Anyone seen Devildog?
He jumped.
Don’t post Z.H. poison on this godly site!! Z.H. twists everything bearish – including stupid technical issue at an exchange. If that’s where your mind gravitates, go fuck yourself in their tsunami of shit.
I sold BORN yesterday afternoon common +15%, options +50%. Bought NVDA common and calls this morning, which are doing well too.
talk to your WNR and your CVI… hot damn
All that money spent on buying puts for protection will be wasted come next Friday.
Bull
soda, ouch!
I do not believe there are many short sellers left after Mon close. Everyone and his mother knows a relief rally is coming after a -6% day, pros cover and wait for their opportunity to re-short.
If history is a guide (and it always is), selling pressure will likely resume around 1180, 1200, and if we are so lucky to climb all the way to 1235, that would be the ultimate short for a retest of the lows or lower. I am long as of yesterday’s close and will become short around those battle areas. I will short and cover as needed, until I have a full position that gets us to revisit the low [1101] or lower.
All severe crashes in history behave similarly: (i) big up day, (ii) pullback the next day(s), (iii) run higher (1d-16d) to above mentioned areas, (iv) retest of the low or lower. I will follow the scrip, with stops, for the more likely scenario to play out.
yeee haaaa boys.. this here is what ya call a rallllllly!
There is a lot of supply of WNR between 16 and 18 with it touching and going of daily resistance today. I reckon goldman upgrading it is the kiss of death also but what do i know. Any weakness hits the market and thats toast down to 11.20 . This of course isnt advice.
where do u get 11.20,,?
Average closing price in an area of consolidation 7 Dec 2010 to 28 Jan 2011.
tks, but i think ur going too far back.
i could be wrong thou.