I depart for an undisclosed caribbean island on Monday. I’d like to apologize to all of you banana grippers for missing out on Monday’s crash. I know most of you will be positioned perfectly, especially Mr. Devildog. However, do not fear, as I intend to uphold the office of Blogfather while beachside. The very notion of neglecting the site, in exchange for conch cocktails, is reprehensible to me, despite the wishes of Mrs. Fly.
You should know by now, “The Fly” has a responsibility to all, due to iBankCoin’s dominant position atop the highest of the high echelon of financial sites in America and the universe. Before I depart, the iBC staff, and shadowy figures, will meet for dinner and drinks tomorrow, where the fate of your lives will be decided. According to the constitution of iBC, ALL READERS shall be under 23 hour surveillance and will be terminated upon the explicit and unanimous decision of the iBankCoin board, if said person is charged with crimes against iBC logic.
Finishing off the week, it appears I’ve returned from the dead, once again. Although I say a lot of cocky shit, I respect the market and do not intend to dive back into waterless swimming pools again. I started a new position in BEE today, due to my belief that John Paulson’s stocks have been targeted by short sellers, trying to break John’s back. John is a pimp and will survive this mess.
At the moment, I have a few super sized positions and they are performing okay today. I say “okay” because both WNR and GSVC are lower. DECK, EMN and CLF are buoying my portfolios today. I am looking to position into both LNG and WLT at some point. However, since I will be on a white sand beach next week, I’m guessing new positions are not in my near future. If you’ve been badly damaged over the past two weeks, this is your chance to reduce risk. Remember, “The Fly” thinks outside of the box and is a contrarian at heart. As most people get scared out of the markets today, I am staying long due to my belief that there are too many people leaning short. We’ve already crashed and now these people want to crash again. It’s nonsensical.
The gluttons shall be slaughtered as they eat chocolate cake with their bare hands.
In my estimation, we have a 2-3 week window of opportunity for greater upside, before more shit hits the fan. I intend to push the envelope here, make back all of my gains, then switch to cash and/or short in the Fall.
Rest well over the weekend and prepare for winship next week.
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fig, dammit
Sorry I’ll miss y’all this year. Raise a couple for me.
Might add some GSVC here, btw.
_____
Apology accepted.
Apology not accepted, although we’ll miss seeing you.
Say Hi to RC for me..
That’s him and Woody, pulling up to Fly’s house, on the cover page right now.
You’ve met the big son of a gun?
_____
Ha- he is big. Must be them crawfish.
ha. right in time for hurricane season.
No hurricane’s where he’s going.
A lot of oil and gas geologists go there to study the carbonate platform/environment.
Try this so for travel, sionic ion for iPhone and android. It’s new.
Ap for travelers, spell check
What happens in two weeks that puts you short/cash?
Rumors of a great depression means we rip the F*ck higher in a very F*cked up rip ur tits off type fashion. This is the absolute bottom for a little bit. I say a F*ckn little bit because if i told u my secret u would all jump ahead of me. S*ck my d*ck devil dog and all u bear dik wads. We rip higher and bond crisis leaps lower for he next 10 years. Bonds is the short of the century, and buy gold on dips for a 1 to 1 ratio eventually one day.
btw Joseph Fahmy is nothing but a spectator, that guy should get a job selling cars or something. I dont care how gay his micro trading strategy is
Who??
_____
poster @stocktwits
Have a nice time and have the conch chowder with Bimini bread.
Be sure to have them put a little sherry in the conch chowder.
Also, I have it on good word that since Jake has killed the metals market this year that he will be treating the iBC staffers to a fine dinner.
And tell RC not to wear that LSU hat on the subway- they will know he is a tourist (not good).
No one is going to fuck w. RC. Shedder Fly and I stood under him for shade last year.
This year I can’t make the fest due to teenage boy responsibilities, unfortch.
_______
Tell Woodshedder that if he wants to try some of the best pulled pork sandwich ever that there is a place in Murray Hill area of Manhattan that will rival anything he has tried in the South.
http://www.waterfrontalehouse.com/
I live three blocks away from that joint, good burgers too.
Bullshit!
Yeak you’re right.
It is bullshit!
But I have heard about it!
^ stealing other people’s handles is not nice
Imposter!
Thanks TC! I’ll look it up. We are at West 51st Street. No idea where Murray Hill is, but I’ll look it up.
What Jake said. Although I hear RC and Chess are out tearing it up tonight.
one more thing FLY, ur wrong about shorting in the fall. Historically september is a buying opportunity going into decmember then sell in december and buy back sometime in january. This is easy shit i tell ya.
unless of course if u believe we have an october panic which is more unlikely than pigs flying this year. QE 3 will be a shit show this year as bernanke employs more of his friends than ever before. Handouts of generous proportions will make their way into the hands of the goldman sachs gang and all the other mafia banks
Do you people want to know the best indicator of a bottom?
Ask any blogger. See my sitemeter at bottom of page for answer.
So true. When I read that ZeroHedge crashed the other day, I knew the jig was up.
must be a drop of page views …. traffic was in the thousands and now much lighter …. beachcombers???
give us pictures of you paradise
Enjoy the Turks!
What? Greeks and Turks?
What about the Cakeholes?
________
We are about to witness a Death Cross. The faster moving 50 day average is about to cross the slower 200 day moving average, and will be below the 200 soon. Technically speaking this will add more selling pressure as quite a few market participants base their entry and exit decisions on these crosses.
But they said this last year and it was nothing.
News Flash!
Shares of P&G undervalued!
P&G has come out with a new line of diapers for Bear Shitters!
According to analysts there is a 20 % upside potential in P&G shares due to the demand in diapers required by Bears shitting themselves in public as the short squeeze upsets their stomachs!
See my post for everything you’ve ever wanted to know about the Death Cross:
http://ibankcoin.com/woodshedderblog/2010/07/01/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-death-cross/
Enjoy the vacation Dr.Fly. Be well and please stay away from any and all parasailing adventures. The carribean people have no regard for human safety amongst other things.
pope, you still on the cape?
Left Cape Thursday. Great time with wife and her family. Finishing up vacation im Penn at Lake Walenpaupak.
Uh ohh, the financials just shit the bed.
Financials are still shitting all over themselves. A crash in the summer has a low probability of occurring but watch out come October.
1250 in the next week or two has a high probability … Autofellators will be coming all over themselves.
You’re so “vein” … I bet ya think this post is about you.
Hey they’re blaming uneducated-Caribbean youth for the U.K. riots. Be sure to toss a hand grenade in the nearest discotech.
And enjoy.
Hope the iBC meet up and vacation are epic.
I was in the Turks when a tropical storm passed by to the south.
Before the storm came the sky was filled with such brilliant pastel colors it blew your mind.
Funny thing is, bartender looked up and told me there could be hell to pay that nite.
Nothing but some rain.
enjoy
For all of you who were talking Bear Shit all day,
TAKE THAT TO THE CRAPPER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Short Finacials worked today, my short positions +1.8%.
Good for you but how did your other shorts work out for you?
How lovely, a fucking cabal prior to congressista style vacation. BUT, being left at the hands of the keyboard and the PPT staff means life is good. We shall sharpen our aim, fire selectively with unconstitutional discrimination and smirk, smirk, smirk as we, all by ourselves Flycock our targets. Go with fire in your loins.
YOUR DISCORD IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL!
Thank you. The flattery is mesmerizing.
So you averaged down on all your positions and we bounce a little bit and now your back up 8% on the year? This guy overreacts to the market every day and acts like an amateur. We’ve just had one heck of a bear move for the last two weeks and he talks about is why the market should go higher because he says so and wines like a little bitch. Yet he is a great professional trader? Doubt it. Pure entertainment value here and nothing more. He also said he sold everything at 12000 then bough more again. He is so off balance and on tilt it’s hilarious and I bet he is still way underwater. You’re an overrated farce and nothing more.
Jealous Dicksucker!
You’re a fucking retard. Have you even looked at my positions or read ANYTHING I’ve been saying? You dicksuckers make me laugh.
See WNR, see DECK, see CLF, see EMN, see them all you little trollop.
And, I NEVER SOLD at the bottom. Instead, I doubled down on my WNR two days ago. Why don’t you inform yourself before making yourself look like the idiot you are.
BTW, I would assume the correct word you are looking for is whines. Wines…..as you used the word, would possibly indicate that said “little bitch” alluded to in the sentence has a drinking problem.
Around here it’s bring your A game, Go Big or Go Home and all that happy shieza.
Adults do not whine here or anywhere else.
Here put this in your mouth, mind your own business and STFU!
i saw a good comment elsewhere on this site that said it all. France, Spain, and Italy are getting smoked if not for the ECB bailing them out. this means euro printing. and i think there’s been some unwritten agreement last year or so that it is in the interests of the powers on both sides of the atlantic if the USD/EUR stays put — USA and southern europe work together to stiff our creditors, and synchronize our depreciation!
the flood of euro’s then does this: ECB lends euro’s to big euro banks. big euro banks go to the FED. the US FED puts those euro’s on its books and lends the big euro banks dollars, which they then invest in US assets. (and maybe we have some good old fashioned QE on our side as well.)
either way, more money means stocks up, since if it only went into 10Y US T’s then the pathetic yields would make for lame bonuses and wrecked 401k’s and angry voters.
in the ultra short term though, for political reasons, they may allow a big euro bank to blow up before they get the green light to print over there, and ditto for an american bank to get QE in the USA, so I wouldn’t be jumping for stock market joy just yet. Got to bargain hunt, not get euphoric until its time.
oh, in particular, if they blew up a big *German* bank, that would really help greenlight the ECB to go all out.
For any of you doubting my comeback, you are NOT invested long this market. The moves this week have been parabolic and its been easy to make up lost ground. Don’t forget, I was 30% cash when the market dropped, all documented here. It’s funny that no matter how transparent I am with trades and losses, some of you will say stupid shit.
Then you wonder why you get banned. I don’t allow stupidity to reign supreme here.
If you like rum cakes, these guys are awesome.
http://www.tortugarumcakes.com/
EOW Daily Recap:
“Today’s gap up opening, second in a row, and rally to SPX 1189, OEW 1187 pivot range, is still within the parameters of an Int. wave iv rally. We posted yesterday evening, in the comment section, some Fibonacci relationships for the end of this downtrend: @ SPX 1089 Int. v = 1.618 Int. i, @ SPX 1092 Int. iii = 2.618 Int v, @ SPX 1093 Int. iii thru v = 4.234 Int. i, and there is an OEW pivot at 1090. Providing Int. wave iv ends within the 1187 pivot range. When this downtrend ends, probably this month, the next uptrend should provide the best rally since this bear market began at SPX 1371.”
You lost me at “int v =”
This month? This month is already half way over, and you’re saying it’s going to rally higher, then come way back to test bottom again, then begin a new rally… all before the month ends? I don’t know, man.
76 spx points can’t move in a week or two? Are you kidding me it can’t be done? Where have you been the last 10 days? We bottom and reverse by the end of the month just in time for QE3 and a rally to spx 1250 early Sept … Capece?
Fly –
keep an eye on these links. Looks like you are in the clear hurrykin-wise till the very end of next week/weekend…
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx_pres_9panel.gif
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
23 hour surveillance? When does the surveying begin?
I’ll have to be on my best behavior.
It has been ongoing for 3 years. Ever wonder if someone had access to your webcam (CREEPY)?
4 ur info
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113299/housing-markets-collapse-2012-247
The last few sessions had all the signs of a bottom. Triple bottom support and distribution but late Thursday’s action and Friday’s session was the worst follow through I’ve ever seen. This market should have slingshot higher like Stevo in the shit covered outhouse scene in Jackass 3D! WTF? I think every trader was exhausted on Friday and said fuck this- TGIF…I’m headin out early today. Now what then? Should the market continue its descent into the abyss? Not necessarily. I think the next few weeks are going to be a whole lot of nothing. Be prepared for dullsville in the coming weeks. After a rout like that, I was looking for a space shuttle launch late thursday and into Friday’s session. Not happening! Whoever wanted out is out but as far as some comeback action……..Don’t think a whole lot of that is happening either. Enjoy the weekend!
well a whole lot of cash flowed into treasuries. that’s money managers waiting to see if euroland survives this episode unscathed. looks like they actually might, but its not safe to go back in the water yet- they like to have weekend surprises over there. if euroland goes for a week without any blowups i bet the money will start flowing back out of treasuries and we’ll have an awesome week after that (TBT, +your favorite equities)
“…I depart for an undisclosed caribbean island …”
Anywhere the parachute jump, or handball court?
He tasks me; he heaps me; I see in him outrageous strength, with an inscrutable malice sinewing it. That inscrutable thing is chiefly what I hate; and be the white whale agent, or be the white whale principle, I will wreak that hate upon him.
God, Melville is some powerful shit, no?
___
Otherworldly.
My favorite author….
Yarrr! There she BLOWS!
Call me Ishmael
(To the Bears)
Get to the Crappa!
Where Oh where have all the scalpers gone? This buy n hold shit is not working unless your name is Cramer.
cramer is rasing cash..
To be “LONG” this Market … and to be … uhh … adding LONG positions going into the weekend …
… while … preparing to leave for an “Island Getaway Weekend” … seems ill advised ! IMO
—
At the very least … shouldn’t some sort of “hedge” have been put on ???
—
Are our memories so vague as to forget the HELLISH “rollercoaster” we have witnessed this past week ?
Come on people … think about it !!!
Do you REALLY THINK … it’s “upward and onward” from here … I mean REALLY ???
I THINK NOT !!!
—
As for you, Fly !
Love ya man !
But … think about it !!!
.
Your feeble attempts at offering me FINANCIAL ADVICE have been duly noted and your life will be discussed during tomorrow’s summit.
I am +8% YTD, with around 17% cash. That is sufficient.
I do not cower in the face of adversity, which is why I am PLUTONIUM PETEY and you are alf44.
What the fuck was that about, alf44?
In The Land Of The Blind … The One Eyed Man Is King !!!
.
… to be “BALLS TO THA WALL ” LONG STOCKS here … into the weekend … without downside protection …
… be it PUTS … be it INVERSE ETFs … be it “WHATEVER” … is … well … “DUMB” !!! IMO
—
There !
I said it !!!
.
Look!
There’s at least a 50% chance that you are wrong!
… sigh !!!
.
How ANYBODY could give that “common sense logic” a thumbs down is mind-boggling !!!
What-ev !!!
.
we r at the crossroads. with p/es where they r it would seem a bargan is at hand, but if they are lower what then? all cash at the moment, my intent is to get in and out and not hold anything for a while.
this may throw a monkey wrench in the machine. no?
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/news/germany-still-opposes-larger-rescue-fund/6273849/
Yeah the germans are screwing it all up.
One of their big banks is going to have to get sacrificed. That will both scare the german public, and wake them up to the fact that the money they lent the italians / spanish / irish / portugese / french / greeks etc. got spent, and the fuckers ain’t paying it back, and the germans don’t have enough muscle to make them. Once this is accepted they will grudgingly go along with massive ECB money printing and enjoy the nominal stock gains like everyone else.
State of America: The Pity Train has derailed at the intersection of Suck It Up & Move On, and crashed into We All Have Problems, before coming to a complete stop at Get the Hell Over It. Any complaints about how we operate can be forwarded to 1 (800) waa-waaa. This is Dr. Sniffle reporting LIVE from Quitchur Bitchin’. Suck it up cupcake, Life doesn’t revolve around YOU!!!!!
im laughin my ass off, thanks
Hi, Fly
Thanks for your love for all of us here (No Homo, No Hetero) in being willing to keep the blog going, even during your vacation. I hope you and your family have lots of fun .
so r u metro, the way to really fly?
i dont like the letter W, theres too many ups n downs
im wacthin the straw poll, id rather be watchin the stripper poll
http://www.theonion.com/articles/drunken-ben-bernanke-tells-everyone-at-neighborhoo,21059/
No doubt someone saw this and it is THE reason for this past weeks volatility. Just sayin….