I sold out of the rest of my CLH and TER this morning, alongside some other loose ends, upping my cash position to 50%. For my personal, I am heavily overweight ERY. The potential downside persists as long as QE3 stays off the table. The rationale behind my VXX trade last year was based around the treasury market. I didn’t believe QE2 would help and I was wrong for assuming that. I thought the sheep (you) would be funneled into the treasury markets, by our government, via a weak equities market. They call it “flight to quality.” I call it “fucktarded.”
So if QE2 is really coming to an end and leverage is being pulled at the CME, what is the bullish case for equities/commodities?
I am not suggesting it’s all down from here. However, I do think we should trade with a bit of vigilance until we reach an appropriate oversold range.
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…Hello darkness my old friend….
wake me up when these asshats stop relatng the dollar index to stocks ever f-ck tick !
mght as well trade fx ..for losers!
Yeah, because there’s been no correlation over the last 9 years, right?
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Inverse Dollar Trade B’yotch’s. Skynet algo’s see all!
Spike da market one ‘mo time. 10 handles spooz uppity up. Then stay away and smoke cigars on a boat like Tommy Vu.
LOL. Is that the little Viet Namese dude w. the yacht and the wimmens in bikinis?
I remember being a kid and seeing those commercials and laughing even then.
And then there were the two dwarf brothers, right?
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LOL Yep Jake!
Watch these for a good laugh:
http://youtu.be/K853GykeGH0 (original)
http://youtu.be/GfdHYjMGEto (In Living Color spoof)
The Fed can end QE, but someone still has to step in and buy the Treasuries. It ain’t the Chinese, because they are net sellers. It ain’t the Japs, because they may have to liquidate Treasuries in order to pay for their nuclear disaster and its ramifications. So, if the Fed (through their PDs) is the only buyer, and the Fed doesn’t buy, then T-bill interest rates have to climb. The USG can’t pay any higher interest on debt that it can’t even pay at this low interest. One way or another, there will be QE. It just may be called something else. Also, the Fed must continue to buy those junk mortgage backed securities (at face value) from the six jumbo, Wall Street holding banks that run the Fed.
That said, I bought SLW, at the open, at $32.79. Regardless of what the Fed does or doesn’t do, I ain’t owning this shit at the end of the day.
There is always someone that ends up buying US assets if foreigners buy US dollars. It doesn’t matter if it is not the Chinese. Someone outside the US is long of US Doll. That’s what a float is all about.
QE2 will end, however interest rates are at zero and because the Fed is targeting the quantity of money it will supply as much funds as is needed.
People are far too bearish because Q2 ends.
And aren’t commodity prices falling a good thing for the US economy. At least I thought so.
From April 6 to May 4th, foreign buyers accounted for $51 billion in Treasury buying, while the Fed bought $80 billion. Without the Fed buying, this bond boat sinks. A turd, by any other name, still stinks like a turd. You can use the same metaphor for QE.
Dude…
Of course the bond buying by the Fed dissuaded buying by others. And of course long end rates will rise once the Fed disappears. But the Bond market sinking?
You are basically inferring that because the Fed was a large buyer others won’t appear after June. that’s a huge assumption to make especially if you look around the world and ask where are these buyers going to go.
Europe? hardly
Japan? Please
Gold? Chinese buying from the IMF and no impact on the market because it was an off market transaction still sent the price up 200 bucks.
Buyers will filter back as they have no choice. Rates will go a little higher, but that is what is expected.
You really have no understanding of the Fed. The Fed buys Treasuries and MBS through and from the PDs. See if you can guess which Treasuries and MBS the PDs are selling the Fed. Do you have even the slightest understanding of what higher Treasury yields will do to the Fed/Wall Street bank carry trade?
“Rates will go a little higher, but that is what is expected.”
Do a little homework so that you can get some kind of an understanding as to what every interest rate hike of 1% would do to the payment on Government debt.
I% rate rise in bonds as soon and the Fed lifts it’s bid. Are you smoking crack?
You’re moving the goal posts and changing the argument now. You implied that because the fed was the majority buyer of bonds in QE2 we should immediately assume other buys won’t reappear once it leaves the scene. That’s amateurish and what I would expect from a rookie trader or an avid follower of “Zerohead”.
this is kinda fun!!
“You’re moving the goal posts”
You and I are not even on the same playing field.
“That’s amateurish and what I would expect from a rookie trader or an avid follower of “Zerohead”.
I am no leader, but I am certainly no follower. As to whether I am a rookie, how about you and I compare profits made since 2003 to find out which of us the more successful speculator. Let’s bet the nominal sum of $10,000 on the outcome. I’m sure I can get one of my banks to escrow the funds. We can publish the results of the bet right here on the Fly’s site. This site is all about winner-take-all. So let’s see who the winner is. Maybe some of the posters here would be willing to place a few side bets.
“You and I are not even on the same playing field.”
Of course we’re not, you rookie.
You’ve been trading since 2003. I’m impressed. Okay Baron. Lets do history of employment. In my history of working on the street since the 80’s I ran trading groups that made a combined 650 million in revenues by my estimate. And all spec trading had to be approved by me.
My own spec profits were around $1 to $25 million a year and never had a losing year.
If you can’t beat that then stop talking shit and wire the money to Fly and I’m sure he’ll be honest enough to send it on.
But I digress, you rookie.
Not to say that I don’t believe you, but since you’ve never had a losing year, and you have no problem posting your amazing accomplishments, perhaps you’d like to post your true identity. I’d love to research you.
I’m one of those trust but verify people. Consequently, before I mail anything in, I’d just like to make sure that your assets exceed your liabilities. One of the last guys who bragged to me about his net worth, declared personal bankruptcy. It turned out that he was on the hook for over $150 million that he couldn’t seem to make the payments on. The yacht he used to travel back and forth to Hong Kong, and the 599GTB Fiorano he once owned, are no longer in his possession.
“Not to say that I don’t believe you, ”
I don’t give a shit you don’t believe me. However you owe me 10G.
“but since you’ve never had a losing year, and you have no problem posting your amazing accomplishments, perhaps you’d like to post your true identity. I’d love to research you.”
And you can fuck off.
“I’m one of those trust but verify people. ”
I’m one of those people that doesn’t give a shit.
“Consequently, before I mail anything in, I’d just like to make sure that your assets exceed your liabilities.”
“Yea. Wait by the fax it’s on it’s way.”
“One of the last guys who bragged to me about his net worth, declared personal bankruptcy. ”
I’m not bragging, you doofus. You are. You took out what you thought was your huge swinging dick and it was really one that was no bigger than one belonging to an unfed mouse.
“It turned out that he was on the hook for over $150 million that he couldn’t seem to make the payments on.”
Nice friends you have.
“The yacht he used to travel back and forth to Hong Kong, and the 599GTB Fiorano he once owned, are no longer in his possession.”
Are you Hong Kong Chinese because all you dudes seem to have stunted egos.
“If you know anything about the Street, which you obviously don’t, the revenues I’m referring to wasn’t my money, it belonged to the banks I worked for. And yes, Bank traders generally make money and it isn’t unusual to have traders make money every year.
Now go away as you’re starting to bore the shit out of me.
BDR — you might want to hold off. Ozzie J’s a currency trader.
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And I can vouch for his identity.
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Baron
TBT is pretty much on the lows of the year. It’s at the lows of the year one month away from when the Fed stops QE2.
You think the people trading in that instrument perhaps aren’t aware the Fed is getting out, which is why it hasn’t traded higher?
As I said, you’re an amateur and ought to be up on fraud charges for stealing the name of a great, great man and taking it as your moniker.
Are Bill Gross and Jim Rogers amateurs? Ad hominem attacks are usually launched by those who are devoid of knowledge and/or logic.
Will you two chill out here? How about just discussing market data rather than making personal attacks? You would think you were discussing politics– which seems to be all about personal attacks for some reason.– maybe because it’s far easier than finding likely solutions to problems and backing them up with informations.
Frog
STFU. We are talking markets… possibly the most important event to happen this year in case you missed it.
We’re talking about the end of QE2 and what effect it will have on markets.
I think there will be buyers even if yields go higher because higher yields will be matched by higher GDP and economic activity.
I don’t think it will happen because I’m sanguine about GDP so I don’t think rates will go higher although the rate aspect isn’t that important to me. In fact I would prefer to see as it would mean the bull continues and I prefer trading the bull.
Meanwhile the Red Baron thinks rates will go higher because of some simplistic ideas, he listens to Bill Gross as well as that bow tie dickhead and he reads zerohead.
“Meanwhile the Red Baron thinks rates will go higher because of some simplistic ideas, he listens to Bill Gross as well as that bow tie dickhead and he reads zerohead.”
.I may be a red state baron, but I am no Red Baron, and you misquoted me. I stated that “if ” the Fed stops buying Treasuries, rates will go up. However, I never said the Fed will stop buying Treasuries. In fact, I said that the Fed will continue to buy them, but will not use the term, “QE” when doing so. Consequently, because I don’t believe that the Fed will stop buying, I don’t believe the rates will move much, if at all.
I’m sorry that you couldn’t understand what I wrote. Upon your request, I’ll endeavor to break down what I write, so that it is simplistic enough, even for someone as professionally accomplished as you claim to be, to understand. If that is not good enough for you, then, in the words of the immortal Fly, you can “fuck off”.
Rogers talks his book about commodities and can’t be trusted.
Bill Gross also suffered the biggest loss in Bond market history so he’s been wrong before.
I wouldn’t trust one single hedge fund manager that goes on TV as they are always touting their own position.
What’s your point. Do you even have one?
Answer the point above. If the bond market is going to take a serious hit after end of QE2 why is TBT trading at the highs of the year approximately one month before the end of the party. Are you, Rogers and Gross the only people that know something the rest of us doing? Is there something secret about this that we don;t know the Fed is going to end QE2.
Rates will go up but only when it matches economic activity and to be honest I have grave reservations that will happen because nominal GDP is still below 5% when the fed leaves the scene.
As i said.. another rookie avid “zero head” reader.
All you fucker preaching Wehrmacht Germany in the 20’s are still missing the fact that banking lending is anemic, Velocity is still shit, and MZM is looking like it will sag.
“All you fucker preaching Wehrmacht Germany in the 20?s are still missing the fact that banking lending is anemic, Velocity is still shit, and MZM is looking like it will sag.”
As far as Main Street lending goes, velocity has been shit ever since the The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 was put into place. Why should the six big Wall Street holding banks lend to Main Street, when they are making giant bucks on the risk-free Fed carry trade? It must be sweet having unlimited funds at amazing leverage for the use of front running clients. How can those assholes, who are purported to have assets that equal 63% of GDP, not have trading days that make north of $100 million and successive perfect trading quarters? If you can’t see that the Wall Street economy has almost totally decoupled from the Main Street economy, then WTF can you see?
too much sloshing around still from QE2 for any kind of real market crash at the moment – they are just going to slosh it around from sector to sector for a while.
I though I would be graceful and deliver this info to you now and here instead of submitting a lotto-style note only to wait 1 to 3 years while being only possibly selected out of your hat, and then waiting another 10 years for a response
You’re so vain…Ben Bernanke.. just pull the trigger already..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQZmCJUSC6g
AG bouncing….
dead cat????????
Bouncing too are ONN and OCZ, nicely positioned techies. The rest – deboned, fileted, emasculated, bubble butt humiliated. Don’t burn your bras girls, things are still falling and none of us are in our cups yet. See ya’ll at the Bull and Bear for a tumbler.
Bill Gross will buy back in on the Treasuries when rates go up.
Yields will only go up once/if economic activity improves from here. Otherwise rates will stay bid once the Fed gets out. If yields track economic activity that way, then rising yields shouldn’t be much of a problem until next year of so.
Do you agree that for ERY to really move the needle you need
a dramtic sell off in XOM ? Could happen , but not likely , however ,
if I see 17.02 then I will go large with ERY .
One more item to consider , a had a major major CNBC oft time guest tell
me last evening that we will see QE 3 given the recent data .
The play here is long commodities . I know this is a tough trade to make ,
but that makes it all the more rewarding .
We will hear a little more hint of this over the next 72 hours .
OK Here comes that SPOOZ spike I was talking about. ;o)
Stop thinking so hard. EXK and AG are now a Buy.
XRT XLY XLK green , and every restaurant stock I track is green 2 days in a row. That is not the kind of sector rotation you see at the start of a downtrend. Looks like a blast off to new highs setting up for the market, over the next few weeks. Would make sense, because bears too accustomed to getting a pullback last 2 summers. Big bear trap brewing.
And we’re back up again. Is this pattern feeling familiar? Clams riding on horseback tossing out pumpkins filled with cash and smoke. May with only 1-2% growth in the commodity riddled TSX?
Impossible.
Weeeeeeee my crude oil bottom call working great.
4% down right off the bat today. Go out and cut the grass and back to even when I get done. Sometimes I sweat these swings and lose perspective. Always have to remember that if something is going to go up it will go up, but it won’t likely be a straight line from A to Z.
Fly–
Can you those people on the Frost Bank ads on your page to stop staring at me while I try to read and contemplate?
Hard to concentrate with that ass floppin around the place, too. But I ain’t complainin.