I mentioned this earlier today. I wanted to follow up. Inside of my Raw Commodity Index, I track everything possible, via ETF’s. From lead to tin to fucking cattle, it’s represented by this index. Now go ahead and take a looksy at the chart and tell me where it says “top.”
Disclosure: Fuck you and your charts.
Double Disclosure: MOS has $10 bucks in upside, near term.
My chart says buy Wendy’s above 4.90.
FIG , CIF
AGNC volume went nuts when it touched $28.50 after hours today ……
Shoulder in November…… Head……………….now! It’s a huge Bernake clam head if you look closely…….
Cain Thaler???? Ha
Fly please ban me for life.
Thks
Best of luck.
I second the ban for life.
was wondering how youd take it…….looks like you took it in the gee-gee.lol
V — sorry, but when we were tabulating up the votes, there was an “NFW” in your columnn.
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It says “top” right here- “blog post on this index.”
Drop the s in “post” and spell it backwards and one gets top.
Sorry.
Just finished playing Scrabble while watching the Magic BB game.
Thank you. I was just about to make that very point to someone the very minute your post arrived. You saved me the trouble.
From a fundy perspective commods have to rise. Supply of oil, grains, & industrial metals is stretched tight, and getting tighter. And supply is not rising as fast as demand, straight up. If you want to talk down commods, then you have to explain whose demand is going to drop, and why. I don’t care what “the trade” or “the charts” think.
Likewise, from a fundy perspective, the precious metal selloff is bullshit, because it represents the new risk-off mentality on inflation (more accurately, the impending debt deflation), and that is underpinned by nothing but air…air that smells like bearded clams sitting in a dumpster for a week behind a Chinese restaurant.
We’ll have to face debt deflation one day and one way or another. It’s the elephant in the room. Who’s going to inoculate the PIIGS? Who’s going to withdraw all the liquidity that’s been injected to keep the banks alive? Putting aside the “tallest midget” argument, where’s the real bull case for USD? Manufacturing? Sure we can ignore it while the QEx and POMO game is on, but that doesn’t make it go away…and don’t miss the turn when the full faith and credit turns out to be less than half-full. 2007-2011 is only the skirmish, pre-season games. The big game is the wholesale deflation and contraction of the global economy over the next 100 years, as growth finally finds that its limits are in fact real. Declining supply of commods against a growing (and young) population will ultimately force the great contraction…hallucinations of bearded clams aside.
Anytime PM’s go down, it’s because of brazen manipulation by the EE or the Clam. This is bullshit, it’s getting annoying. Coming from someone fully invested in EXK, the silver crowd is beginning to feel a little too crowded for my liking. There’s too much whining any time there’s even the slightest dip. What’s keeping me in a silver miner? The forthcoming wave of muni bankruptcies. Give till about May or so, when cities start telling their states to off themselves, and then you’ll see where silver runs.
True, but we do still have lots of state buildings, highways, and monuments to monetize. The Comcast State Capitol Building! Geico State Route 48! Heinz Yosemite!
I think I would personally pay to re-name some of the myriad tax dollar paid public works vandalized by Robert C. Byrd’s name in W Va.
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What evidence do you have for a stretched supply in oil? Crude oil inventories are at 5-year highs.
Sorry, meant to add this is based on YoY comparisons to account for seasonality.
Yer too micro. Look at global supply/demand balance and spare capacity…then discount the claimed spare capacity numbers appropriately based on the reputation of the claimant (cough) and you’ll see that 87 pushing 88 mbpd of demand is dipping into the marginal supply zone. The margin was around 6% at the depths of 2009, and is likely back to 2% now. Get it down to 1% and you’ll see the next fireworks show…I say Q3.
Yes, Q3 could be the point where supply really gets tight. But your original post implied supply was already tight. It’s not. Obviously it appears the market is already pricing in the shift in supply / demand which is what the market normally does. If everything goes to plan then the market is right and your thesis is correct.
But if the market is already pricing this in, just any one of many things that can go wrong with the assumptions will cause the price of crude to plummet from its current levels.
I don’t see any need to worry about assumptions and what the market is pricing in. Yes supply is tight, where I define “tight” as under 3% spare capacity. How do you define it? Brent is over $100 for a reason. No correction needed (or likely) until it’s over $110-120, the point at which US demand should start getting destroyed. US inventory levels are virtually irrelevant to the global pricing now.
“US inventory levels are virtually irrelevant to the global pricing now.”
THAT is a fact that many with meager brains have yet to process. Fundamentally ignored by a host of prognosticators but it will become readily apparent this time around.
Yup.
Right on cue, check out the Deputy Executive Director of IEA on FT today, confirming that it’s all about the fundamentals & supply is too tight – virtually demanding (in diplomese) that OPEC open the taps, now.
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2011/02/01/ft-video-100-oil-considerable-concern/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
yea, nice post here Mr Fly. I agree, was surprised to see JJT moving last week, i was like huh. but yes, its all on the move. but then, I read an article in the FT about tin, and if i recall, its being used in packaging,
(and mines are running out) its in short supply…. and then i started thinking about this recent Rock-Tenn deal, and noticed many package companies been on the move,, so ima like hmmmmm
thanks again for the posts during the day, enjoy the dry witty humor but clear concise info.
If countries are destabilizing around the world because of current food prices, where will the instability level be at 10 to 20% up from here? Long term, another 4 to 5 coup attempts won’t be good for world indices.
One thing we’ve learned from egypt and greece–
When one country becomes unstable, all the neighboring countries stock markets start crashing 15-20% in near straight lines (whether its fair or not)
Until IMF steps in and gives them a bunch of funny money from the central banks that they own (or are owned by depending on your tinfoil hat tolerance). This goofy global money bubble is far from over imo.
Just looking at the chart, and not focusing in on the lack of restocking so far in China, I can’t tell you where it will top…but resistance points are 119.56ish, 128.56 ish, 143.12ish and 166.65ish, just by looking at the small part posted using Fibo which Physic Geeks who create trading programs seem to really love.fwiw.
btw, these two China Insurance Companies do look like they were messing around with their figures, (not a seeking alpha link) http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=462972&type=Business
Looking at the same stuff Fly.
The market is so overbought though. You gotta weigh the push higher due to the falling dollar versus lower demand as the economy continues to suck donkey balls.
Hoping to see a pull back and then get in. Everything looks pricey to me now. Then again I have been saying that for the last 3000 points on the DOW.
The clam has created one tough fucking market to invest in. Blowing bubbles does no one any good in the long run.
When this pops it’s going to be epic.
It will benefit holders of oil wells, piles of PM, etc.
Fly, it would behoove you to respect us more
else risk us going Egyptian on your ass
Tonight, I got home extremely late. So I’m afraid it’s Haiku Post night, my Cat calling the Kettle ochre friends.
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STFU
Go Red Flash!
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Loving commodities. 100% long now, largest pos is CHK, accumulating MOS, MON, IPI. Spring planting around the corner! Bot ANR on the takeover dip. Other faves CMI and TEX