iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,457 Blog Posts

The Hardest Market Ever

Folks, it doesn’t get harder than this, despite what all the know-it-all dipshits out there say. Please keep in mind, most of the bloggers you read are fake. They don’t really run money, nor live the lifestyle of a gentleman. When a market tumbles by 65%, then rips by 50%, then chops around for months: that’s a pretty horrendous market.

How about recently?

Well, we had the best fucking July in decades, which led to the worst August since 2001. Anyone who is telling you this shit is easy is either lying or faking it. Look, I pride myself on being right and knowing exactly what the market is going to do and when. For the most part, that is still the case, as the market is playing out as expected. However, the week to week trendless bullshit is taxing, even for me. I don’t like to be hedged for so long, which is basically me saying: “I don’t know.”

I just got back in from a 5 hour flight from San Diego and I did not sleep for a second. Instead of dreaming of goats and fairies, I read the Wall Street Journal (7 days worth) and watched CNBC Asia and Europe, until I got bored. After that, I put on some degenerate cartoon, where there was some fucking Merlin-like magician, who turned himself into a lion then exploded in front of an audience, which turned into a demented invitation to his next act by way of writing on the wall from the blood of the dead lion. Gone are the days of Papa Smurf and Plastic Man.

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84 comments

  1. maxx99

    welcome back !

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  2. logicalthought

    >>I read the Wall Street Journal (7 days worth)…<<

    There's this great site called "wsj.com"… For $50/year, it lets you read it every day, even in California. I'm using it right now on vacation in Arizona, and it really works.

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    • Treepart

      yea but it’s hard to wipe your ass or wrap a fish up with wsj.com.

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    • Diver Dan

      Hey Logical. Duh!
      He was on a plane!! I would not be surprised if he read it online on the plane, if it was offered.
      He didn’t take the time to read wsj while he was touring So. Cal with his family.

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  3. BlueFielder

    Impressionable verbiage …. I’m most upset by the ‘Goats & fairies’ part .

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  4. Berniecornfeld

    Your TLT call this spring was fucking brilliant. I should have just gone TILT on TLT and gone to the beach this summer

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  5. egghead168

    Agree, it’s hard. Too many gaps and reversals. But as long as you follow your rules, you can still make money.

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  6. Dr Fly

    Logicalnthought

    I sub via ipad. I dont look for discounts that are already cheap. I appreciate the journal and glad to pay 18 per mo

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  7. HuggieBear

    You are long and hedged at the moment, no?

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  8. alphadawgg

    Well said. Tough market to try to make money in as it is throwing off a lot of mixed signals. All the uncertainty has created the choppiness, as the players are trying to figure it out and position and reposition themselves for the next big move.

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  9. AfterIt100

    At least whatever one may lose in the intial move can probably be made up by the severity of the definitive move afterward

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  10. eyh6

    Long live Plastic Man!

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  11. wilmer

    It’s a degenerate’s market. Anyone with honor has been on the sidelines.

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  12. SteveTheNeghbor

    Welcome back Neighbor Fly.You may have noticed a few changes to your house. I didn’t want to tell you on the phone and spoil your trip. It seems some of the neighborhood people aren’t happy with you. All damage was done on the first night you were gone. And, by the way, did you know it was illegal to discharge a firearm after 10:00PM? I had to go after some of the neighbors who were repelling off your chimney into the skylights. The paint job on the side was done because I had to cover the graffiti. You know, stuff like: “FLY FIX YOUR LAWN, FLY MOVE OR ELSE.”
    Steve, Jr. was on the roof filming so if you need evidence let me know.
    It appears old man DeLucca wasn’t happy with you throwing Genoa salamis at him, eighty-five year old Mrs Greenbaum didn’t like your throwing beer cans at her, and the O’Brien family didn’t like your throwing corned beef and cabbage at their door on St. Patrick’s Day.
    Welcome home Neighbor.

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  13. ruggyup

    Sounds like DeLucca is a wastrel, throwing away good food or, maybe he prefers Lebanese, the old lady clearly has sensitivity issues and the O’Briens should have been thankful for the gifts considering the state of their accounts at the Anglo Irish Bank. You are a kind and thoughtful neighbor. I am very happy here 1,500 miles south. Cover your shorts.

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  14. buylo

    Ok, time to fine-tune the PPT and begin day-trading aka scalping.

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  15. J

    Talk about the WSJ

    What the fuck did they do to that August newspaper by slicing a 1/3 down lengthwise. I saw this earlier in the year as I hadn’t been back to the US for years.

    Murdoch deserves 30 years in solitary for that.

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    • IBD

      Hey J, Free the Crocodile! Let him go! Scott has all the market answers, but the Fly ignores him.

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      • J

        IBD:

        It sounds as though he’s a tax crook. If owes the money, he needs to fork up, that’s all.

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  16. Deaf Dumb and Bling guy
    Deaf Dumb and Bling guy

    What’s your call Purdy boy? Well… We’re waiting. Same market different day.

    ‘This tape is so easy it is frightening. Down. Half way back. Kiss down trend line. Repeat.’

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  17. TheArtist

    FAZ and FAS now equal…both 17.30

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  18. TheArtist

    this tape is what you call “double sided”
    sticky on both sides…

    carry on.

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  19. Quint

    ” the week to week trendless bullshit is taxing” – try day to day trendless bullshit…or hour to hour with these friggin algobots…

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    • Minute Trader

      No,no… Todays news says last Qtr was pretty good. We have conviction my friend.
      Never short a retarded market.

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  20. Satanfeller Luciforgan
    Satanfeller Luciforgan

    The market plan seems to be to psychologically prepare the general investing public for a drop in the value of the US dollar, in addition to a later conversion of US dollars to Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) or the Bancor (the planned world reserve currency of the new world treasury run by the IMF) that will **NOT** be a 1-to-1 conversion.

    The psychological prep is apparent through the blatant manipulation of markets for increased volatility and increased market synchronization, so that true diversity in a portfolio is nearly impossible. Gains are difficult to achieve for the average investor. The average investor then gets accustomed to the belief that losses are acceptable.

    Much money stands to be lost through such currency conversions. Since the psychological prep is happening now, that means this is a good time to get into other currencies — Chinese yuan, etc.

    Just a guess based on careful observation and lots of reading.

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    • Jakegint

      Here’s where the paranoid schiz stuff runs into reality.

      What do you think the IMF is, exactly? Even more so than the UN, the IMF does not exist without the U.S.

      So you’re going to have to go back and make up a new international (preferably secretive) global scary organization to come up with your bancor/SDR/whatevah.

      ________

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  21. Rand

    We take care of grafitti artists here in texas. Nothing like getting a double load of rock salt in your behind to make you want to move on. And in texas you can discharge ANY gun at any time in defense of your property. Gotta love texas! If they live, they get put in prision. 90%conviction rate in harris county. We send only one warning, the rock salt, anything more, its the morgue or the cell.
    You all come back now, ya hear?

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    • Deaf Dumb and Bling guy
      Deaf Dumb and Bling guy

      Try that shit in Austin and you’d better find a change of venue lawyer.
      Also TWIMC… Texas sucks, move along nothing to see here.
      I can’t breefff.

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    • Heaterman

      Rock on Texas. Not a state but rather a state of mind.

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  22. Trading_Nymph

    Trivia…I never read the Wall Street Journal……For most Pro Bloggers, IMHO I am really surprised how little most know. Very few put in the needed work to truly follow the market properly, being a true market junkie that does it for the passion and would do it even if money was not involved cuz the Challenge of the entire thing is like Mt Everest to a Mountain Climber…..I can spot a fellow junkie a mile away…and sadly most Pros that blog at other sites aren’t…..even though they think they are great….for myself, the hardest part of this market is getting my stupid Math right….lol….I am still pissed….Fly, California says you should move here….

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  23. EasyMoney

    I gots this stock markets thing. Buy every other day- Sell every other day. Easy Japaneesy!!

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  24. The_Real_Hmmm

    The Fed is in a bit of a predicament as I see it, with a hopefully manageable outcome. Their original intent was to buy up MBS to push down mortgage rates and guarantee any further losses from banks/holders. Using ZIRP to influence credit easing allowed them to control the short end of the curve but what they didn’t expect however was the expediency of pre-payment as a result of pushing down mortgage rates. As mortgage rates increased refinancing picked up and pre-payment (risk of MBS holders) increased significantly. As the Fed let agency MBS to run-off, they used the payments from principal to purchase up the curve into long term UST with the expectation to flatten the curve. This was done to diversify their holdings into their goal of eventually holding a majority of their portfolio in Treasuries. Their other desire was to flatten the yields of other debt instruments that prior MBS holders would have invested in by buying said UST. This will lower the yields on corporate yields and help bolster balance sheets.

    The interesting problem is that as the Fed purchases more UST they are lowering long term yields which in turn could push mortgage rates lower and further increase refis and pre-payment which will cause the Fed to be flush with cash. Managing a ton of cash could limit what the Fed could do without tipping their hand towards an inflation policy. They should start helping small banks that do not have access to public capital markets for financing. I think it’s important to watch mortgage rates, Fed purchases, and MBS pre-payments. The Fed is also talking about changing their communication techniques in FOMC minutes by saying that they will target rates lower than currently priced in, instead of being vague and just saying “for an extended period.” It should also be noted that they do watch Fed rate futures and use that to influence purchases on different term debt securities.

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  25. Carsony

    The bears will get crushed. The economy is healing give it a rest
    and will have a healthy recovery.
    Obama do something for small business, create new energy jobs,
    or keep your month shut. Your sprit saps us.

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  26. Cascadian

    <>

    Window dressing.

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  27. noodle

    seems whenever we get directional oil goes 10 bux

    either 65 or 85 yo

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  28. alphadawgg

    ….eating brunch right now as I watch the this market hover around 10,000. Fried egg sandwiches, blueberries, strawberries almonds and yogurt. Glass of V-8 (no vodka).

    Then off to ride my ATV in the woods just to piss off the environmentalist neighbors down the road, followed by lunch and a kayak excursion on the lake.

    My, the market is exciting today…..

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  29. TraderCaddy

    Put a motor on your kayak and then do circles on the lake in front of your enviro neighbors.
    Try the fried egg (or scrambled with onions) on a toasted bagel with a couple of slices of bacon and some melted swiss or cheddar.

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  30. No One

    Hurricanes coming
    Literally and figuratively.

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  31. VXX

    10….9…..8…..7…..6……

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  32. FIG

    I sense that Fly is feverishly adjusting his portfolio. When he unveils his new strategy, the plebs will be astonished by his newly minted extreme bearish sentiment. Le FLy is no fool. He knows a sick market when he sees it. The double dip is now a certainty, the only question is whether it starts next week or a month from now. Either way, a prudent investor is getting his short ETFs on with high expectations for massive gains in short order.

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  33. Minute Trader

    Flat line. Is it dead? Somebody kick it.

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    • TraderCaddy

      Going to tread until 2PM Fed minutes.

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      • Minute Trader

        You got SMH tee’d up. Looks like it needs to go green.

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        • TraderCaddy

          Scalped long this AM for small gain, but, basically, just waiting to see the 2PM reaction to Fed.
          If stocks get hit actually looking to see how XLF,KRE (Financials doing well) etfs react and if they do nothing on a general hit I’ll be in for some in and out.
          SMH has been trading tick for tick with FXE the last few weeks.

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          • Deaf Dumb and Bling guy
            Deaf Dumb and Bling guy

            I have FXE on my long charts as well. Currency moves provide some king of knee jerk and momentum.
            UUP on short charts.

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  34. Russian Saylor

    The Hardest Market Ever.. I second that

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  35. HawaiiFive0

    Welcome back!

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  36. deadjim

    Incorrect sir. If you know the trend (DOWN) this market has been easy since May. Swings have been holds for weeks, market bounces are defined within Gann line support and fibonacci support as well. If you’re patient and wait for the market to rally, you get your short entry. Timing this on a day to day basis is IMPOSSIBLE. I agree the market is hard, but it’s not as bad as it would be if you’re questioning whether or not this market can go higher. It CAN’T go higher. Not from here. We’re going to 9k DJI MINIMUM, and that is your bounce area. If you’re not already short, you don’t want to short this unless you just simply enjoy losing money. Average in your short, win.

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    • Purdy

      Banned!

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      • deadjim

        ?

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        • Purdy

          just screwing with you ..but I don’t agree that it’s been easy since May. Depends on how one trades and time frame. GL

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          • deadjim

            totally agree. time frame is everything in this market, and the market is quite difficult if you’re unsure of the direction. if you have the mindset of “short rally, looking for bottoming action on bear ETFs” it’s actually been pretty tame. I mostly swing FAZ/TZA/SPXU/BGZ.. but staying with FAZ this time around. Currently I’m not short too much here, been waiting for a bounce for several days. 250 shares from my original 500 from 13-13.82 area.. hoping to add some in the mid 15s, but may have to bite the bullet up here. Downside is a 1-2 at most, but average in 50 shares at a time and you remain calm through the chop.

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  37. deadjim

    By the market can’t go higher from here, I mean, April highs will never be seen again until we drop. From there it’s a whole other ballpark. Monthly charts says March 09 is COMING OUT.
    Now tell me this market is hard again

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  38. deadjim

    incorrect twitter. link should work now

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  39. Derrr

    Since recent market is neither a bull market i will dub this market the Exploading lion market in honor of your Merlin like cartoon

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  40. buylo

    Are you sure you are trading the US market and not the Roomanian?

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  41. tm

    I think July 09 was better…

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  42. Sierra Investor

    MVIS & APPL rumor flying!!! PICO P in Ipod..

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  43. Purdy

    “The Fly” on how tough this tape is:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZ38wu5Fp6w

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  44. Bill Clinton

    I don’t want to hear any of you fuckers talk bad about my time in the White House again. EVER.

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  45. Mr Goldblum

    Up or down, will this market please make up its fuggin mind?!?!

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