The Fed is purposely flattening the yield curve by buying treasuries, which is fucking the banks and their little scams. Essentially, instead of raising rates to encourage banks to lend money, the Fed is crushing yields so the bastards at BAC will fish for higher returns. That’s why the stock prices of all banks and brokerages have been hit, as of late. The Fed is forcing them to accept more risk and get off the government’s tit. Nevertheless, we have ourselves a very difficult tape to read here, with TLT/FXY through the roof and gold and oil still so damn lofty.
My conundrum is this: if I release my hedges, I risk going into the worst month of the year, historically, fully exposed to the market at a time when red lights are flashing vis a vis the bond market. If I sell all of my longs or some of them, in order to let my VXX run, I risk missing out on an epic rally, which will be fueled by a pullback in treasuries and yen. I think it’s fair to say the market has no fucking idea what it’s doing right now.
At any rate, I’ve been talking to my people, trying to get a clear direction on the markets. When I figure this shit out, I will be sure to let you freeloaders know. For now, I remain steadfast in my ability to eat sandwiches, with aggressive/abrasive manners.
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The Fly is God!!!!!
Zombie, you are so fucking Gay it hurts! You Ball Licker!
Bye-bye August, good fucking riddance!
No kidding. If I eat anymore sandwiches I am gonna turn into that fucker Jared!
amen emen imen omen umen. this may become a chant.
LOL!!
VXX is the gayest hedge known to man.
Watch your mouth or I’ll ban you from the internet!
thanks for throwing us low end pickers a bone.
Like a wise commenter stated, the H. Omen just means that the market is very confused and looking for direction due to a number of highs and lows both equal to or greater than 2.8% on a number of occasions.
This signals confusion of direction in the market, and when enough investors can’t figure it out they fold up the tents and move along to something they can figure out – like Druckenmiller and Pellegrini returning funds to investors.
If you are looking for a traffic direction signal, perhaps it is not a red, yellow, green we are looking for but YIELD
Cash is king, I can’t wait for your list for long term investments that include dividend payers along with a fixed income recommendation. We may be picking up nickels in front of a steam roller by staying in, the only thing keeping me long is anticipated B.B. actions.
Yield is right, stocks paying high yields have been doing fantasticly
…tack on some covered call writing to those dividend stocks, and now you’ve got some decent cash flow.
Freeloader, how dare you, Fly!
I am a “Distinguished Gentleperson” of The PPT.
The banks that need to be able lend are the smaller banks that are not only not on the gov’t tit, they are being penalized for past capital ratio inadequacies and are being asked to pay fees to assuage public anger about the bailouts – bailouts from which they themselves did not benefit. GS doesn’t loan shit.
I agree that the FED is pressuring rates down, but with this bunch, I’d look for reasons that are short-term, political, and that serve the big institutions.
BAC, WFC, Chase, Citi all used to lend huge huge amount of mortgage and consumer shit. I believe that is who Fly is talking about. Spurring regional banks is a two edged sword. Instigating the bigger banks is far more effective in forcing an outcome one way or the other. No?
buy buy buy buy buy
Freeloader? How fucking crude! I pay my dues (if I did not I would be instantly shat upon), I pay homage to the PPT deity and I don’t blow my nose on my shirtsleeve. So, WTF?
US markets are simply not trending right now. I don’t understand why you don’t turn to Latin America or South East Asia, even if it’s only their ETFs like GXG, ECH, THD or EWM. Of course there are also great individual plays like BAP. Just imagine you were a Japanese investor – there’s no way you could have made money in the past years focusing on domestic equities only…
Now if we can only get Jack Bauer out of the religion market and into forcing banks to lend:
http://justificationbygrace.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/jack-bauer-school-of-evangelism.jpg
funny
It’s the mortgage holders who are pre-paying their debt that is forcing the Fed to flatten the curve. The Fed did not expect the velocity that cash has been inflowing from their MBS holdings. They want that money from the mortgage holder to go towards consumer items (it’s starting to by Y/Y comparisons) and/or credit expansion. The Fed’s, and any banker’s enemy is the too responsible debtor.
The banks haven’t been lending with strength since collateralized debt issuance shit the sheets. For them it’s more fun to play Minesweeper with the Dow 30.
VXX will slowly bleed if the market is range bound or flat. Not a good hedge. You might as well just go all cash.
Phil-
Are you Phil_From_Brazil? If so, do you have an email??
“I think it’s fair to say the market has no fucking idea what it’s doing right now.”
Ahh, yes. Blame the market!
Care to expand upon your point?
Hey I’m just kidding. I’m mostly short, but I had thought the market would move up a tad the last couple days too. I still think it will.
It will. The shadows in the urinal were feeling lonely while Fly was away on vacation. So they’ve been talking to me. Good thing Fly is back!…they were creepy.
“…………. trying to get a clear direction on the markets…………………”
that’s I said back on Friday!!!.
Enjoy the Salmon sandwich. Welcome back!
Looks like hurricane earl is going to visit DC.
If that happens I will have no electric power for two weeks. Thank you BGE
I’m sure the local communities refused upgrading their infrastructure over the last 20 yrs.
You are correct.
Nice hipster track selection, Fly. Way better than the hip-hop crap you are always playing.
Might be fun if you took requests.
Reminds me of Johnny Cash.
I think the FLY learned that it’s not worth trying to trade while on vacation…..just going to loose money and piss off the wife and kids for lack of quality time. You can’t pay enough attention to it while your out throwing Jonny into the waves or wipping the ice cream off his face…
Go to cash or set stops before you leave and don’t look at it again till you get back, that’s what I do.
Don’t Trade and Swim!
From what I’m hearing, don’t think or swim either.
hourly inverted head and shoulders on ndx, so no double bottom. basically long, but if that level is touched, then short the bounce imo
CNBC marching the experts through to tell us there is no bond bubble…Yet the govt prints money then buys into the treasury market with it!…You get more insight from a paragraph on Fly’s blog,then a whole week of programming from CNBC…ridiculous
TheUrinalShadow says: Fly, I will be talking to you soon.
Earl is coming to destroy the Fly once and for all
Hey do you guys wanna see someone who’s more wrong than Purdy in action….here’s a classic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_igpyewuzQ
Fly,
Despite all the negativity, almost all my longer term readings are near oversold.
Doesn’t mean we can’t take another hit, but something to think about.,
Too many chiefs
No Indians
Fly, you constantly tell us about your gains when it is convenient, but i havent heard about what your up on the year now??