The market is down 5% from the highs; but the internals are far worse. The average steel stock is down 20% in recent weeks, same goes for small cap tech. Anyone with some skin in this game knows exactly what I am talking about.
The tide will turn and the market will trade higher. Mark my words you little trollops. This market is primed to go higher, specifically for one reason.
THE TURKEY GODS.
That’s right. Don’t think I forgot about the powers of the Turkey Gods and their control over stock prices. This is the time of year when people stuff their fat faces with stuffing, corn and turkey. There is no time to be bearish, quite frankly.
Look, if the market is going to trade lower, it will do so AFTER Thanksgiving—on Black Friday. However, traditionally, this is the time of year for celebration and joyous behavior. We can all get back to ending the world AFTER turkey day.
With my 15% cash position, I am all but forced to trade lightly. I will not go “all in” here, due to the outside chance that the Turkey Gods drop the ball. I will reserve my 15% cash for “emergency” hedging opportunities or “must buy” situations. My current positions are downright dreadful, getting the full brunt of the “homo-hammer” — in recent weeks. I am appalled by the recent action in TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , Corning Incorporated [[GLW]] and [[MWW]] . However, that’s life.
In a word, this market is “coiled.”
Okay I Lied UPDATE: I could not help myself. I bought partial blocks of the following: [[CBD]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , CGG Veritas (ADR) [[CGV]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] and Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] . I am bulking up on foreign names and Cramer hatred, via EQIX.
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I’ll be charging my Thanksgiving Meal on my Citi Visa…..I will be making minimum payments @ 29.9% interest ….hopefully I’ll have some credit leftover to spend at Macy’s for Xmas
That’s what I call “Taking one for the Team” KC.
_______
or, perhaps…the outside chance that the Turkey Gods drop the…ah hem…”butter” ball…
Uhhh…as it were !
Sorry…couldn’t resist !
.
let’s all give thanks to the turkey gods.
Yes, indeed.
“It’s a helicopter, and it’s coming this way. It’s flying something behind it, I can’t quite make it out, it’s a large banner and it says, uh – Happy… Thaaaaanksss… giving! … From … W … K … R… P!! No parachutes yet. Can’t be skydivers… I can’t tell just yet what they are, but – Oh my God, Johnny, they’re turkeys!! Johnny, can you get this? Oh, they’re plunging to the earth right in front of our eyes! One just went through the windshield of a parked car! Oh, the humanity! The turkeys are hitting the ground like sacks of wet cement! Not since the Hindenburg tragedy has there been anything like this!”
http://www.in.com/videos/watchvideo-happy-thanksgiving-wkrp-turkey-drop-2125525.html
I really miss that show
“As God as my witness, I thought turkeys could fly!!!” – Arthur Carlson
One of the greatest lines in television history.
Fly you start to sound desperate… TURKEY GOD?! WTF?! I hope you are not trading base on some hope or “Turkey God” Or it may just be you are the one who turns turkey…
Yes. THE TURKEY GODS. They appear once per annum and never let you down.
Trade accordingly.
FLASHBACKS
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2008/11/26/gobble-gobble-motherfuckers/
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2008/11/25/a-late-night-word-from-the-turkey-gods/
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2008/11/25/ignore-this-run-and-die/
I hope we push past 10,500 on or before that day as those posts are classic!
I dunno how I’ll like a Turkey Day post sans swearing?
The Turkey, or Thanksgiving, Effect is a well-documented stock market phenomenon whereby the market is unusually bullish both the day before and the day after Thanksgiving.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/108353-the-turkey-effect-on-today-s-markets
Fly,
Can you shed any light as to what the heck’s goin’ on with FTK?
Do you have any thoughts on it whatsoever, other than it’s a whore of a stock?
The co wants permission to issue more shares, which will ultimately be diluted. However, at this stage, it’s the only option.
Best case scenario: business picks up and the co gets back on track with share price.
Worst case: dilution hits shares for another 50%.
I hate to say it but it’s current price is a good place to load up historically
It rarely trades below $1.50
Of course that is before any dilution
stocks trade better after the stock/cb/debt issuance is complete. no need to jump in yet.
what level pricing triggers the long awaited short covering? who do we think will rmanage the issuance?
RIMM calls rockin today. gobble gobble, baby.
My friend works at NUCOR running steel slab operations. He says production is around 60% capacity.
His last paycheck averaged out to $500.00/week. Keep in mind that a lot of NUCOR employees are paid $10.00/hr plus production bonuses. He made $90,000 annually in 2006.
could be worse, he could have worked for Credit Suisse and made 4.4 million in 2006 and only 4.2 million this year.
O.K. god damnit……….
ENOUGH of the fucking talk about Buffett buying Burlington you fucking whore media (car) people…..get onto something else. fucking christ……….
fucking fuck fuck
carry on.
LOL
I thought your were Bloomberg Only.
I am Bloomberg only, but it has talked about this Buffett shit every 10 minutes all day, so far, it has been talked about at least 20 times since this morning as if it were breaking news each time…..
and I’m sure we have 20 more visits about this before they stop.
but I’m sure CNBC has mentioned it 100 times since they are the Whores of Financial TV the world over…….which makes Bloombergs mention 20 times seem tolerable.
Agreed.
Yeah, this Turkey God theory worked out awesomely last year. Unfortunately it’s Nov 3rd and not the 23rd. Yes, the week of Thanksgiving last year the market went up. This was after the previous 3 weeks of November, which saw an approx 25% loss in the major indices. Then on the Monday after Thanksgiving the Dow gave up another 650 points. So you were hardcore short for 2008, except for those four days of Nov where you closed everything, reversed and went long, then closed again and resumed short? Or were you just long with a small piece of your portfolio at that time, and were just declaring overall victory (per usual), but in reality were just up on that minority portion?
I took turkey for a trade. I was short again after Thanksgiving.
Here’s a mid December post
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2008/12/11/oh-shit-were-in-a-bear-market/
I waffled back and forth, short/long. But the lionshare of my money was made short.
Sept post
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2008/09/27/its-not-funny-anymore/
The archive game is my favourite.
I think it’s the flyonwallstreet ones that first instilled my unwavering belief in that plutonium powered time machine you sometimes rant and rave about. And when I say rant and rave, I exclude the negative connotations some might associate.
This market is amazing – the $1.2 trillion welfare health bill and the Fed said no more buying treasuries after Oct. have not crushed it. The G-20 have put $12 trillion into stimulating the world economy and never been a recovery without the market predicting one.
Fly,
Are you sure Cramer hates EQIX? I’m looking at my market edge subscription via ameritrade, and TSCM rates EQIX as a buy as of yesterday?????
he put it in his “sell block”
What do you like about ICICI, other than the fact that it’s ex-US, and the symbol is almost IBC?
what is a “homo-hammer”?
“When one has been dealt a ‘homo-hammer’ or a ‘homo-hammer of death’ you are effectively on the receiving end of the market as a whole, who has decided to Angelo one of your stocks, or preferred bullshit sector.”
oh, thanks. i guess you got one once just to see what it was like.
why are you getting bearish on turn around day?
I forgot who was saying to short aapl the last few weeks. Good call. As I said then and still feel now. AAPL is not a $200 stock
3 years ago, the Chinese calendar was the year of the cow. We had Mad Cow disease. 2 years ago, the Chinese calendar was the year of the bird. We had Avian flu. This year, the Chinese calendar is year of the pig We have Swine flu.
Next year is the year of the rooster.
Just a little food for thought.
We’re all getting the clap?
Buy Yamana Gold (AUY) going into earnings. The late in season earnings announcement will have let them capture more gold sales at elevated prices.
The final Supper,,,,,,Burp.
ZIRP for life!
Send your money to NY and Washington. I wanna be a banksta too.
Fly 5% is a home run today. Don’t be so tough on yourself.
You don’t always need to slide into 2nd with your spikes up.
162 games is a long season.