Gobble,
Gobble, gobble. Gobble, gobble, gobble GOBBLE!
Gobble,
Gobble Gobble.
Developing…
UPDATE: Check out Gio’s video, which conveniently touts his Godly call on solars.
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,443 Blog Posts
A late night word from Elmer Fudd:
BANG!
BANG BANG BANG!
BANG!
Anyone remember Taleb’s turkey story in “Black Swan”?
OH MY GOD–a live, IBC exclusive interview with Hank Paulson. Un fucking believable.
Fly
Can you please remind he readers that gold is very very gay.
I love how people who recognize that the market has rallied for no good reason (except turkey) over the last three sessions now suddenly expect the market to go down because there are good reasons. It doesn’t work like that. We’re either trading on fundamentals or we are not, and right now we are not. So, for now, it doesn’t matter if we SHOULD be at Dow 5,000 or if equities SHOULD go lower. They are not. To suddenly expect this market to start trading to where it should be is nuts.
Gobble gobble
I think that ‘umm if I hear the word systemic or Tsunami, one more time, I will puke Turkey.
Fry, the market fell for good reasons, and has rallied, for good reasons. It is trying to find an equilibrium. It will over and undershoot it, over and over again.
The question is then whether or not fear is more powerful than greed. (Yes)
The other question then is whether the market has once again overshot, when it had the largest 2 day rally in over 20 years.
Who knows. It really doesn’t matter. We know it will turn again, pullback, consolidate, all of that.
The ultimate question is will our stops/max pain get hit before it turns again.
o.k now what – What was the turkey story in black swan? I’ve been meaning to read that book.
Did you know you can read that book for free online. I have the link if anyone is interested…
The bear will eat your turkey before you get any.
Scum bucket and DD will be riding a tandem bicyle when the market rally kills their short positions.
*bicycle
Ha! Elmer you may get some pathetic turkey but you’ll never get me, sucker.
The turkey story reminds me of DD actually.
Basically, a turkey lives in the barnyard and gets fed each day by the farmer’s wife. In the beginning, he listens to his instincts and is cautious and scared. As time goes on, and he continues to be fed each day, he grows more and more comfortable, increasingly confident in his great life. What he fails to realize is that each new day he grows increasing confident and self-assured only brings him one day closer to Thanksgiving.
Happy Thanksgiving DevilDog. Don’t be a Turkey.
Gobble Gobble
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69uayjrwHJ8&feature=related
Vote: stuffing should be made IN the turkey or OUT of the turkey
I vote OUT
BOOMER
Anyone trading the minis right now? This channel is working well between 848 and 850.50. I have traded it 6 times already tonight in 10 lots.
Boomer: I vote BOTH – you can never have too much stuffing.
Given the Flys cooking skills…
…that Thanksgiving turkey just might give the markets an explosive case of diarrhea.
From oversold to overbought so fast!
Frightening.
I’ve always heard it isn’t safe to cook the stuffing in the turkey but then again, I don’t cook so what the hell do I know.
http://www.manhattanmedia.com/02138/
Gapping, been considering trading those. I watch them every night. I wouldn’t mind getting an email from you with any insight you have. I’ve never traded futures.
Gapping, you looking for a break to the up or downside, out of this coiling range?
My guess is down.
Question for the cognoscenti: What we experience a black swan event on or around Turkey Day? Will it be called a Black Turkey?
^^What if…
How come there is no edit feature? What is this, 2007??
Fuck you bearshitters.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aoPHoLjgduGY&refer=latin_america
That guy is a baller.
Wow,
That explains that early day, high-volume run-up Monday morning (11/21) of C to $6.50 a share.
What a friggin’ PIG this stock has been since.
P.S.: I am long C since last week.
P.P.S: mdawsz, I agree on the lack of edit features.
Black Swan event for short sellers per Barton Biggs:
http://www.howwealthworks.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4421&view=previous&sid=878f6378680434bd0c99c4d2abd174d4
Back in Lawn Guyland Bulletin:
Mrs. Jake approaching the food court in the USAir terminal @ LGA steps behind an NYPD officah explaining to the restaurant manager — My Cousin Vinnie-style — that he was on the lookout for “two utes.”
Mucho smiles for the Girl from Flyover.
______________
Stuffing outside the bird? Madness, unless the intent is to add to the stuffing that cooked in the bird. Mmmmmm. Stuffing.
I found this picture remarkably disturbing: http://i145.photobucket.com/albums/r230/justinober_bucket/thanksgiving_turkey_2.jpg
The only way to prep the bird is to brine it.
No way…
The Fly is watching The Food Network….specifically “Good Eats” with Alton Brown.
You gotta love the guy for that!
Holding strong (and long) all 6,000 shares of AMAT @ $8. Probably into mid December unless the stop is hit. Also, long 2K JBL but sold some.
Covered RJF short today.
Damon, the Fly and I discussed brining, on this blog, last Thanksgiving.
Good times!
Tomorrow, it goes into the cooler and placed outside in the cold NYC weather.
This year, I am using chicken stock, instead of vegetable.
As the cook in our house:
Chicken stock rules (although, being married to a “vegetarian”, it makes it hard to use)
Oh…and yes, she still gets a lot of meat, if you know what I mean!
With Turkey, I think salt brining kills salmonella and pulls excess moisture from the bird.
However, as an lifetime ocean captain/fisherman, my specialty consists of fresh caught Pacific Ocean pelagic fishes.
HOWEVER, I will hand it to you east-coast bastards with those giant, high fat, sashimi-grade Atlantic Bluefin Tuna.
Or is it Twofin Bluna?
Hookup!!
I bought a turkey at the grocer (not wally world) today – 18.5 pounds of premium young turkey. For… wait for it… $8.00 total. Furthermore, the shelves as well as customers carts were overflowing with goods. Tomorrow will be a good day.
>>Tomorrow, it goes into the cooler and placed outside in the cold NYC weather.<<
That reminds me of the year my German Shepard went out for a walk in the neighborhood one Thanksgiving morn and came home with someone’s turkey …. just dropped it on the back porch as if to say, “here ya go, thanksgiving turkey, courtesy of our neighbor Steve” … never heard who lost it for sure but never said anything about who found it either …. good times!
Keep a lid on that sucker, Fly or risk no breast or stuffing.
In 1973, as a young boy, I traveled to Caracas for 3 weeks. My mother worked for Gulf Oil – Latin America in Coral Gables. It was a boondoggle. I remember fishing on a big boat — not much else. We never went again. 35 years later, she sent me this today obtained from a very credible source. I don’t understand all of it as it is disjointed but enough to share…
——————————————————–
The world is in an economic depression. . . .
King Abdullah arrives in New York today. Oil in London closed below $55/bbl and trading was briefly suspended. Sterling is at $1.48 to the US dollar. When I started writing this post on Sunday I said that motor gasoline prices in the US at the retail pump would end the current week at below $2.00/gallon. This
occurred yesterday.
Oil rallied in New York today but it flies in the face of real demand. I expect to oil to trade at or close to $50/bbl over the course of the next two weeks. The rally in futures prices is unsustainable. It should rally some as all traders will be long against the box for the weekend.The current freight differential between West Texas Intermediate vs. North Sea Brent is now about
$1.25/bbl. The spot tanker market is so prolapsed that even that I expect this differential it could narrow.New tankers are being scrapped in the building
yards at a forfeiture price of $50 million or above. At 10% the face value this is cheap. . . .
By next week it is my opinion that oil will trade in the high to mid $45-50bbl. You can put lipstick on a corpse but it is ugly. So far this US bespoke funeral is a closed casket affair, but I expect an open visitation soon. The US public will demand it.
Senator Chris Dodd is wrong when he decried to the remaining bankers who showed up at his Senate hearing today. We have been here before. It was Yom Kippur 1973
when Arab nations launched an abortive war against Israel and issued a world oil boycott. I was fortunate to be employed by the Gulf Oil Corporation and working
at a junior level for its Chairmen and CEO. The experience which I will review below is I believe is instructive. . .
The use of derivative swaps and unsecured insurance oil and product investment vehicles,special investment vehicles and surety bond exposures were all designed
to bypass the legal framework work of the Basel II rules governing such activities. The price of crude oil futures is simply now a means to register how extensive the economic damage is. The abuse is so enormous on the insurance side of the ledger is well over $ 1 (one) trillion. This is why oil prices went to $
147/bbl and retail gasoline went in excess of$4/gallon. This is the legacy that Ken Lay and Enron bequeathed to the petroleum market beginning in July 2004.
Those responsible for this are the US investment banking sector and those engaged in insurance and reinsurance. This is what AIG created. This is what the
US taxpayer now owns by default. Unasked , Congress and the White House have assigned an extra negative net worth to each taxpayer so far totaling $40,000. . . .
1973- so very long ago but very worth revisiting. I had joined Gulf Oil Corporation in 1970. I was working in the new Chairman’s office when the Yom Kippur war broke out. His name was Robert Rawls Dorsey and he had only one
question after being called at just before midnight on 6 October 1973. Gulf telex operators’ had alerted his principal confidante, L.K. Menzing, for whom I then worked who had at 8:00 pm sent me back to the Gulf Building to the
Gulf telex “room” to read all incoming telexes especially from our office in Kuwait where Gulf had 2.5mmb/d of oil production that would have to, at some point, be force majured. Net work news was immaterial Gulf was the first major Fortune 100 Corporation to set up a political intelligence unit for which I worked. We had better reporting on oil matters than the US Government, for good reason.
I helped prepare a situation report on the political risk as it affected Gulf Oil Corporation’s assets and took it to Menzing’s apartment in downtown Pittsburgh where he called Mr. Dorsey.
Dorsey had only one central question then is as applicable now as it was then:
” When will the public stop buying ‘Good Gulf Gasoline’ and
‘ Gulf NoNox’ ? ”
Dorsey having once run Gulf’s Point Arthur, Texas, refinery and having run Gulf’s Mene Grande office in Caracas, Venezuela and then headed Gulf’s
Kuwait Oil Corporation in Kuwait City, knew from where he spoke. A team was assembled overnight of about 25 people flown in from Gulf’s worldwide assets and a report was assembled in about seven days. The answer was $1.68/bbl.
Adjusted for inflation this estimate still holds up today. The American public stopped buying gasoline at $4.11/gallon.
There were no futures markets in 1973. This was an internal Gulf Oil document
that was shared with President Nixon who decided, after reviewing it , and likely similar estimates of the other four US oil “majors, decided to allow them to collaborate with the other two international sisters, British Petroleum
and Royal Dutch over the objections of the US State Department and the Justice Department. Henry Kissinger did not know a barrel of oil from a jar of mayonnaise. He classified the discussions at the time which, some of which have been selectively declassified. The Gulf records are not and I have most of them.
. . .
The wind farms , ethanol, green oil, shale oil and Canadian tar sands are old history. Gulf owned half of Colorado in 1974 and investigated ethanol with G.K.
Ludwig and floating cellulose ethanol producing refineries coursing down the Amazon on barges–knowing that its lab in Harmarville, had concluded that ethanol from corn or saw grass or carrots was then a 10 cent’s/gallon loser
at the then record price of $3.73 for Kuwait crude oil. It still is today. Boone Pickens shut down his wind farm today.
Saudi Arabia knows it and is feeling it as RTZ is reviewing its overpriced $10.6 billion investment in the Kingdom based on the very expensive oil economics of $140/bbl. . . .
Gulf coast refineries are losing about $10/bbl this week. Hurricane Ike is now
regarded as a blessing having shut down half of the refinery utilization when a
year ago a fire in a wastebasket at a refinery in Beaumont or Texas City was
front page news and worth a 25 cents/bbl pop in oil futures.
The US cannot regulate the price of oil. Maxwell asserts that a good price is $70/bbl. Given the exposure yet to emerge as to how much uninsured debt AIG took
on in commodities remains an open question, it is worth noting this: Goldman Sachs will post fourth quarter earnings of more than $1 billion. Goldman Sachs
asserted that it had almost no exposure to the credit default mortgage swap debt. If that is true then they either lost money in oil futures in a market
that they estimated would witness $200/bbl by end 2009 by their in house economists. AIG was Goldman’s largest customer in buying credit default swaps which it then re-sold or held on to. . . .
There are no real oil majors any more. OPEC is , however,is not the monopoly that the press portrays it to be. They are a barely competent oligopoly on their
best day. They also learned nothing from 1973 and did not invest in becoming a fully integrated consortium replacing the Seven Sister’s. They own about 40% of world oil production and complain that the US has inadequate refining
capacity. They are right. The last US refinery was built in God Hope, Louisiana and came on steam in late 1973 during the first “oil crisis”. There have been several more in 1977 ,1979, 1980 1986 , 1991 and the present
one–which for the US is an irony in and of itself. Both the White House and Congress enabled the “free market” speculative run up and are now worrying about the actual free market price collapse. Before the speculation
stated oil was priced at between $25/-30/bbl. This was in June 2004. . . .
Al Capone would have loved this business.
Gulf Oil Corporation was sold in 1984 by being forced to sell itself to survive. Their contribution in avoiding another depression has been lost to history. No one today wishes to be reminded of that and that of the other four
other American oil majors in averting a direct threat to the US economy.
Thanks for the hat tip…
No wonder i ran out of bandwidth. Thanks Fly. I had to upgrade my ScreenCast account and buy more bandwidth. Oh well, spend money to make money, no?
(u all realize i’m fading solars for a day trade tomorrow and Friday if i get a flat Vix)
anyojne know about all this shit happening in the emerging markets. A fund manager dude was telling me that there are are a lot of these fuckers need ing to roll over US doll demoninated bonds over the next 12 months for which they have no hope of doing. Russia is a good example.
Some of these places have US treasuries. What happens to treasuries if these fuckers have to sell at the same time? At the smae time the US is trying to finance 1.3 trill of debt…..
What happens to the stock market if US treasuries move up in yield?
By the way from my figuring RIO is bust. They have around $50 billion of debt and can’t sell assets at a decent price to repay the loan. Futhermore they have a heap of funding they they will have to do next year.
It’s fucked.
One way of playing commods is to go long BHP an short Rio.
Scully, so whats the moral of the story?
FOR ALL YOU BULL SHITTERS: “good fucking times”
According to Reuters, Paulson has turned his back on giving insurance companies part of the bailout
Reuters reports that Rio Tinto (RTP) is faced with selling assets,
Reuters reports that the head of Citigroup (C) says banks “went wrong” on real estate.
Reuters writes that Goldman Sachs (GS) has broken off talks with Sanyo over a possible deal with Sanyo.
Reuters writes that the Fed sent another $40 billoin to AIG (AIG).
Reuters reports that the economy shrank at the fastest pace in seven years.
The Wall Street Journal writes that as oil prices are falling oil companies are conserving cash.
The Wall Street Journal reports that tech shares may fall further
The Wall Street Journal reports that Tivo (TIVO) forecast a loss.
The New York Times reports that the great growth engine in China is slowing.
The New York Times reports that Morgan Stanley (MS) is working on a makeover as it becomes a bank.
The New York Times reports that the first audit of the $700 billion financial rescue plan is expected to be critical of the Treasury Department’s failure to set up ways to track how its bailout money is being used.
The FT reports that the FDIC may be low on funds to takeover troubled banks.
Bloomberg reports that the Fed risks spiting in the wind with its new $800 billion package.
Bloomberg reports that dividends are disappearing at the fastest rate since 1958.
Douglas A. McIntyre
yes but it’s not the Depression of the 30’s. It resembles hyper-inflationary Germany.
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/guestcommentary?art_id=10157
Mike,
A lot of this has been priced in with the DOW falling 52% from the top.
What we can look fwd to now:
1. most of forced selling / redemptions / deleveraging is done
2. china has reduced interest rates by 108 bp
3. continued stimulus / liquidity injections by FED via short term autions / rate cuts
4. SEC re-introducing up-tick rule?
5. Turkey gods
That’s true, Ed.
My thesis has been that this will be the great inflationary period when you can’t afford to keep cash. Mybe not here, dunno aboutt that but soon.
Ed
It wont stop soon and its not priced in. We will test the lows and break them. Spreads are still out of whack, credit markets are still messed up. no one is lending, etc
All the problems that were, still are.
Enjoy the bear market rally. We will be going down harder and further soon
AssNap – ever hear that the news is worst at bottoms? Go back to March 2000 and you’d think we cured cancer, world poverty & hunger was eradicated, good times forever were finally here
just saying .. not that this is THE bottom, but you ain’t gonna hear any good news right about now
Palin out with some Thanksgiving thankfulness
Juice
this is my problem in terms of putting everything together
Next years T issuance is gunna be around 1.5 to 2 trill.
Emerging market clowns have issued bonds that can’t be rolled over. Meanwhile those clowns that have US doll reserves will have to sell bonds.
On top of that you’re going to have the Fed monetize some of the debt.
What the fuck happens to bond yields and how can the stock market sustain distress in the government bond market.
This is why this shit looks so bad to me.
Sure the picture always looks bad at the bottom and maybe this is one of those times, but I really can’t see how the stock market can hold up with so much pressure in the gov. bond market addition to the Fed monetizing a good part of the debt.
This to me is the question. Can the stock market go up with higher bond yields and inflation raging along at 7% .
If the answer is yes. Then I would like to hear it. It could very well happen for the reason that the people simply move out of cash.
I dunno, which is why I don’t hold a lot of equity at the momoent.
What makes this shit worse is that the new clowns in the white house are brewing up a stimulus package of up to 700 billion.
This is total lunacy. Even Bush the spender balked atr that sorta size in doing a second stimulus package.
In our darkest hour, pessimism gripped the fucktards. I stumble into the blackness and declared, “It is always darkest just before the dawn and it is oh so black in here right now”. I think I’ll buy some WTU for an egregious 40% dividend.
You mourning [sic] folks are way too dark for me. Happy Thanksgiving.
Fly, good luck with the turkey. Brining and/or injecting is the only way to go (have you ever tried smoking one on the grill? It’s a bit of work, most of which consists of eyeballing the grill with a cold beverage in hand).
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
There has been a disconnect all AM between the NAZ futures and the DJIA and SPX futs.
If VIX continues down then NAZ stocks will be good for long trading. Watching SMH (chips)for early indications.
If not going to do some house painting or try a short or two.
Gonna watch EEM as it may be strong on a relative strength basis- China cut rates and Hong Kong was strong.
That is all.
Yogi & Boo Boo-
Yes, I have always smoked my turkey on the grill. I use a combination of mesquite wood and fruit wood (from my orange trees). I also put a spice rub, ala Memphis style, on the turkey.
I have covered my minis short from last night at 850.50 just now at 832. All of this bad news was known and I think people want to get buck nasty with the turkey today. Fat bastard shall ride again!
Fly with the mad Mexican buying shares of C how do you feel about the C you have on?
SILENCE!
I must summon the Turkey Gods from their early festivities, in order to bail the market out of its slumber.
youve got to deep fry the Turkey, thats the way
FYI…
http://www.proshares.com/ProSharesLaunches12NewETFs.html
The turkey gods are hungover and slow to the switch this morning. Bitch slap them.
AIG said it will use a portion of the $40 billion investment to pay off part of the previous loan from the Federal Reserve. It will reduce the maximum capacity of the loan from the Fed to $60 billion from $85 billion.
———-
Just a piece of that shit could have saved us… and you’all
from todays bailout
Dick
They didn’t want to save you because Leh was a bucket shop from the very beginning.
The only thing I’m upset about is that I no longer can use Lehman as a indicator for the top of the market. The top was always reahed when Lehman was hiring loads of I bankers.
hahahahahahahahaha I LOVE THANKSGIVING!!!!
KILL THEM TURKEYSSS!!!!
DIE GOBBLERS!!!!
THIS JUST IN….
THE TURKEY GODS HAVE BEEN HUNTED DOWN AND ARE NOW GOING TO BE EATEN.
The Turkey Gods are up over 900 points in the last few days. Beat them with your Turkey feathers if you must, but be ready for the backlash when they pull out their 40 cals later.
Smoke this!
I think the market is broken, my shorts AND longs are down this morning.
Dear Fry…perhaps time fo you to get rong china…
Close over SPX 900?
Led by materials, energy, financials, tech ?
GA, thats a Texas Hedge youve got there
gl
C up ~5% with Dow down 1%…
FLR and JEC and Fly’s PCR have been on fire
Buying some FXP here, just a hedge of course as a matter of risk balance.
Done daytrading for the AM. Thanks EEM,SMH.
Have to rub the turkey.
Hmm, some of the comments look like Dumbdog’s work. God he must be hurtin’ for cash now, what with his margin calls, viper repo, and his wife’s tit job repo.
Well, to Devildog and the rest of the perma bears – The market is still red, but my titanic sized positions in TNA are already green. 5% and climbing. You see, you cannot possibly match the kind of gains Fly, myself, and other like-minded individuals have been reaping of late, and will continue to you. While you play only 1 side, we throw our money behind whichever side will win in the following days, before the big moves come.
Fly your C call was completely godly. It has $10 written all over it. Did you have 250,000 shares?
Fly here is a bear that needs his wig pushed back, literally. http://skew.dailyskew.com/2008/11/peter-orszag-wig.html
We need a new post
lol my thoughts exactly
Those caught short in the last four days now have their scrotums sewed to their foreheads just as I predicted. What led me to the conclusion?
The shorts were vulnerable, the fed declared war on the shorts, and prices at the pump dropped putting cash in the economy again. When the DOW goes from 14,000 to 7500 you have to be very careful being caught with naked shorts. The pain will be infinite for those caught in the trap. Particularly those who no longer have the ability to cover their shorts and are caught in the squeeze.
nibbling on inverse ETFs here
Don’t do it boomer, at least not till 1 or 2 pm
Fly, let the bird brine, and get back to your office.
fly, hands off your bird and report back for duty!
Worst case scenario, the market reverses course between 1:30 and 2:30. Till then, we will go higher.
yep, i blew them out in seconds
come on, I want the golden bull. For old times sake.
TNA still good for a day trade.
Top Pick: CHK or DVN. Let it be known that I am a fucking weather fanatic. I can tell you with helicopter confidence that this winter is going to be one of the coldest we have ever had. Mark it down. If you want pair it with short oil.