So, we are half way through 2009 and the market is flat. I must admit, I am shocked by how well the market has responded to a flurry of bad news. However, I understand why it is going higher and that is why I am up 60%, year to date, with a very bullish bias.
In late 2008, I made some dire predictions for the market, underpinned by delusions of deflation. I thought, there was no way the credit markets could return, and as a result, commercial real estate firms/underfunded banks would fold under the pressure. Must to my surprise, the exact opposite occurred.
Maybe it was the devils from Goldman or just plain Leprechaun luck, but the credit markets are back in full force, financing all types of stupid shit. Hell, even the ipo market is back. One tell on how the credit markets are doing is via the price action in [[JNK]] . Put it on your little monitors and watch it very closely.
If you recall, I predicted a 50% first half slide in the markets and a monster 2nd half recovery. My year end prediction was for a decline of 15% in the Dow, which is still entirely possible. We have been blessed with some sort of odd version of “investment inflation,” whereby the price of “stuff” has increased due to asset allocation, as opposed to fundamentals. Some people scoff at such a move as manipulative fuckery. However, I view it in a very bullish way.
See folks, money is circulating again and it’s being invested, in a very egregious way. There are strong signals coming out of the technology space, in particular 4g/smartphone/semiconductor names. And, for the love of green shoots and red robins, oil stocks are ripping out the eyeballs of overzealous short sellers.
Going forward, I believe the markets will trend higher, until it is proven the “so called recovery” is false. To be honest, I have no way of knowing if the economy is going to continue to rebound; that’s the whole beauty of this rally: no one knows what the fuck is going on. We’re all sort of throwing shit against the wall and hoping that it sticks. In my estimation, we have at least another month or two of “easy money,” as economic data is obscured by government fuckery and inventory restocking. If the recovery is proven to be legit, we will end the year above 10,000. If not, well, we might see the market go back to the lows.
As a manager of assets, it is my job to gauge the temperament of the market and make directional bets. In my opinion, as long as people have hope, the market will go higher. Right now, much to the chagrin of many bearshitters, this market is chockful of hope.
As for my investment style, it is about to change in a dramatic way. I will be moving away from the randomly selected small cap space, in exchange for a heavy technology oriented theme, as outlined, exclusively, on The PPT. It will be egregiously Godly. And, most importantly, it will be profitable.
That’s all.
Via The PPT, here are the top 50 winners for 2009, thus far:
1 | DDRX | 6,319 |
2 | VNDA | 2,300 |
3 | DTG | 1,228 |
4 | CTIC | 1,114 |
5 | AIG | 1,093 |
6 | UEC | 880.65 |
7 | BGP | 820.00 |
8 | NEPH | 742.50 |
9 | SMRT | 702.65 |
10 | PRSC | 656.55 |
11 | IFON | 632.00 |
12 | HEB | 580.56 |
13 | ANPI | 561.54 |
14 | STEC | 507.59 |
15 | WAVE | 499.11 |
16 | VVTV | 490.91 |
17 | PIR | 483.78 |
18 | DNDN | 436.90 |
19 | GSAT | 435.00 |
20 | PALM | 434.53 |
21 | NGSX | 417.09 |
22 | RAD | 400.00 |
23 | RFMD | 399.00 |
24 | LNET | 398.57 |
25 | CBOU | 397.06 |
26 | ENTR | 388.00 |
27 | VCI | 387.88 |
28 | ONTY | 371.25 |
29 | NBS | 361.70 |
30 | CHUX | 361.50 |
31 | DFT | 357.49 |
32 | SPPI | 357.05 |
33 | VM | 355.95 |
34 | COT | 351.56 |
35 | APAC | 350.41 |
36 | KIRK | 342.26 |
37 | CHLN | 335.66 |
38 | RT | 332.69 |
39 | MRNA | 332.35 |
40 | MGPI | 330.15 |
41 | TSTR | 330.00 |
42 | ISLE | 328.44 |
43 | ISCO | 325.00 |
44 | AGEN | 320.85 |
45 | NAVR | 320.00 |
46 | CMRG | 319.23 |
47 | KERX | 318.32 |
48 | JVA | 313.25 |
49 | WZEN | 309.76 |
50 | BZ | 309.30 |
fig
Scratch AIG from that list. We did not account for reverse split.
Fly,
I don’t see your ISRG in that list. Shit was a great fucking pick. Or did that belong to last year?
Free:
The above list are the biggest % winners year to date.
Any interest in a PALM short here? $16+ seems over valued.
I don’t care if the market goes up or down.
Just do something.
The markets should only be open during the summer between 9:30-10:30 and then 2:45 and 4:00 (plus pre-market and AH).
Wow…I figured VNDA had the top spot locked up…wtf is DDRX!? Dance-Dance-Revolution-Xtreme??
Added to my CYTK big time here @ 2.95
Anyone think Jim Iuorio has a Michael Jacksonesque face?
GLW is telling you…all the “good news” in tech is priced in (see their raised guidance yesterday). This earnings season is gonna be a disaster with expectations as high as they are in tech-land.
Just sold PALM and HIG and SIRI. AIG was punted earlier in the week. Made 2 1/2 points on PALM, scratched on the others.
Not liking the set up for continued upside from these levels. Waiting for 30+ VIX to buy again.
Thanks Master Fly.
Good to hear you are going to dump FTK for something Real 🙂
Hopefully you will add some hedges this time, tech will fall the hardest if we do go down.
Fly,
are you still doing King of the Peanut Gallery with the new IBC? I am preparing for my crown… 🙂
Sold SIRI as well, +10%
Tried to sell PALM short at $16.30 and received this message from TDAmeritrade:
“Order Canceled: We’re sorry, but this stock is not available to sell short.”
What the fuck?
word
Yo Fly, dont you think tech is starting to get a little suckers heavy? Every Tom Dick and Harry on CNBC believes Smartphones and tech will deliver us from evil …
CYTK can get to the $4 – $5 range. Trading it there will be it’s own story.
Shrt term: I think it can 3.20 can bank you coin from under 3 now.
We just bought more Bell & Howell and EJ Korvette stock for Wally’s college fund.
Fine growth companies.
I traded about 23 out of 50 of those names.
Obama supports Fly’s thesis: http://tech.yahoo.com/news/nm/20090701/wr_nm/us_telecoms_broadband_1
The Fly, That is some fine writing. Shamanic. Nobody reads the “entrails” like you, sir. Thank you.
“Must to my surprise, the exact opposite occurred.” yeah, here we call losing your shirt to the market =)
Can’t wait to watch Karl Malden tonight as Lt. Mike Stone in Streets of San Francisco.
This is all an expectations game. Expectations for earnings and the overall economy are sky-high right now. All the good news is “priced-in” folks. All of you counting on a continued rally (especially with earnings season coming up) are in for a rude awakening.
Case-in-point: GLW raised its forecast yesterday and the stock has gone SOUTH ever since. Why?? It was expected and PRICED-IN!
Ward, June, I’m afraid I have some bad news…
You may want Wally and the Beaver to go outside for awhile.
Obama is Michael Jackson boyfriend…
WTF is going on with GLW? drops on good news.
Sold on news. No big deal.
We call that a buying opportunity on GLW.
FRPT getting its stool pushed in on OSK armor contract news.
I’ve started new positions in SDS to play the coming market weakness. Minimal LONG exposure at this time.
Glw: $15.88 AH. Fucking manipulation