Semiconductor book to bill stands around .61. Look for that to increase, as factory utilizations rise. In Korea, factories are running north of 90%, in anticipation of fervent demand. However, in Taiwan (semiconductor capital of the world), they are only running at 60%. As utilizations rise, demand for tools and supplies will follow. As a point in fact, right now there are major supply shortages, which is sending the price of chips up.
Some plays include [[CDNS]], [[AMKR]], [[SPIL]], [[KLIC]], [[TQNT]], [[ASX]], [[TER]] and long shot [[ENTG]].
As [[TSM]] and [[UMC]] upgrade to next generation facilities (40nm, 32nm), parts suppliers like [[NVLS]], [[LRCX]], [[AMAT]], [[KLAC]], [[ASML]] and [[VARI]] are worth buying.
As 802.11 becomes mainstream, [[ATHR]], [[BRCM]] will be your dominant players, with [[NTGR]] not too far behind. [[ARUN]] is a minor player and takeover target. And, [[RFMD]], [[SWKS]] are plays on chips in handsets. As end user demand increases, so does their chips.
[[OVTI]] is a great iphone 3 play, due to [[AAPL]] contracting them for embedded cameras. OVTI also has back up cameras on cars.The handset market is in the midst of transition, from idiotic flip phones to smart phones with touchscreens. [[STAR]] dominates the core router market in the U.S. with 80% CDMA share. Touchscreen supply and design makers [[SYNA]] and [[CY]] will benefit from phones going buttonless to iphone-like touchscreens. [[CLS]] is a dominant contract manufacturer for the handset market.
I could see [[CSCO]] eating STAR whole for lunch.
Demand for LCD screens have spiked, recently. As a result, prices are ripping higher, particularly for small screens (16×9). [[GLW]] makes the glass and [[AUO]] makes the damn tv. Margins are improving.
Due to bandwidth demand, thanks in large part to smart phones, 3g networks are stretched. As a result, [[VZ]], [[VOD]], and most major telcos, are upgrading to 4g. Key players will include: [[STAR]], [[ERiC]], [[ALU]], [[CIEN]] and [[LVLT]]—amongst others.
Bottom line: The above is a story that will play out over an extended period of time. I do not expect the above stocks to go up in a straight line. Food for thought.
UPDATE: I bought 10,000 CDNS @ $ 4.81 and 5,000 NVLS @ $17.57.
UPDATE II: I bought 10,000 [[ARUN]] @ $4.45
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Dennis Kneale is an idiot..
Michele Cabrera is at a cocksucking school in Venezuela…where all chubby beaner skanks end up…next stop Tijuana for the Sunday show.
Freddie Mac CFO blowing brains out is extremely bullish…
Cash and guns…
Bit harsh with that comment, no? You redneck 🙂
In future don’t leave anything behind. let it all out.
Scorcho:
Until we know otherwise I’m betting he caught the wife in bed with Fannie’s CEO.
Cash….right on dude. I’ve often wanted to hit one of those sunday shows.
New Thesis: Inflationary Hortex??
__________
J- i went easy on mackeral faced skank actually..
Artist – Tijuana sunday show is a life experience..high entertainment value…
Cheers Mates…good luck
It is starting to feel like all of the shoes have dropped and we begin to manage this mkt like an inventory cycle recession (although a deep one)
Good analysis, Senor Fly. Well done.
CROX is on fire
Fly,
Any ETF’s worthy of a play here? SMH or…?
C-N-G
Oye pendejo, cerra su boca sobre las mujeres.
You have a problem, no reason in showing your lack of class – keep tu racismo outside.
Gracias.
Fly,
PANL will be the leader in OLED screens for smartphones … they were just introduced by Samsung at AT&T stores.
http://eetimes.eu/germany/216900062
I understand the bullish outlook on these semi’s but most of them are losing money and have been for some time. Is this a cause for concern or are you simply speculating that sales / profits will be improving this year in this industry unlike most others?
CRE goes down in June when they can’t meet the baloon payments on their loans for their vacant buildings.
Thanks
This is a coordinated short squeeze.
It will not end well.
What you are witnessing is the market in the throes of death.
When the kicking, screaming, and gnashing of teeth is over, it is going to be very very ugly.
Everyone right now is betting that they will be quicker to the sell button than the next guy.
Good luck with that.
Cuervos- thanks…chupa mi la pinga bitch
Fly,
I will respectfully (because that’s the kinda guy I am) disagree.
I think everything you’re seeing is a headfake. You and I both know that everything relating to China is fake, false, full of lies, and just pure bullshit. While I hate to disagree with anything GS says, since they are the best, I don’t see it happening.
Even if China grows a little quicker, the rest of the world is fucked…we are all fucked. The thesis remains.
Did I just come back from lunch and sit down at my desk in 1999?
Woodshedder is right. Lighten up, people. This could run for a good bit longer, but at these levels it’s not worth the risk to try to time the top.
OVTI made the back up camera on my newest motorcycle build.
Artist…what kind of bike laddie..?
Cuervo,
where are you from?
Not 1999, Contrary Indicator. More like 2006 and the home equity loans are flowing free and turning into giant flatscreen TVs.
China can dial in just about any GDP it wants – for a while, at least. There is still plenty of space in the country for pouring underutilized concrete.
mr. shedder has been reading zero hedge.
Cash, it’s just a custom bike with a billet Patrick Racing 101 inch motor.
My CROX is bulging. Just how long term is this play?
30+ days in duration are rare. There have only been 5 of them in his lifetime.
Even if the trend has changed and we’re in a new bull, you should get a chance to buy cheaper.
Here is his commentary from Monday where he discussed this:
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
Artist…nice engine…a friend of mine built a bike with one- it rocks
Thanks for the homework.
Day Trade here
MBND 3.35
MAC, unbelievably has gone from 5.45 to 16.30 as of today, up 12% just today….. fucking insane.
WTF? The first sentence to my post wasn’t posted.
Basically, what I said was this is day 31 of what Jeff Saut calls a buying stampede and buying stampedes that are 30+ days in duration are rare.
fly has golden fingers
look at Crocs +30% in one day !!!
I really want to know fly’s YTD now
I would love to see a real pic of Cash and Guns. I bet he looks like the biggest douchebag alive.
Holy shit Fly. Nice CROX call. I followed along for some of that, but my smallish sack prevented me from adding and adding.
By the way, Chart Addict needs his own tab again. That dude has a gift.
Nice call on crox. I have always watched the piece of shit TASR. When that starts to run, its over very very soon. And it is starting…
SFLY 10 day cup and handle about to go VOLUME BTFO style!
Like many, many, many, stocks.
I’m selling down egregiously large positions like CROX and SFLY and DVAX on strength here. Getting ready to be in large cash and diversified smaller positions. The 7 week run been berry berry good to me.
Multiband corp
MBND will go parabolic if tech continues to run!
Cash n guns gives all white trash racists a bad image!!!
for the record..i like my idiotic flip phone