BTW: PPT nailed oil.

Here is historical overall stats, for the oil drilling and exploration sector—

No. Date Rank Technicals Fundamentals Hybrid Score Hybrid Change – Daily
1 2009-01-07 197 0.59 3.89 1.98 (Strong Sell) -33.88%
2 2009-01-06 44 2.32 3.88 2.98 (Sell) -5.98%
3 2009-01-05 15 2.65 3.88 3.17 (Buy) -3.57

No.

I will, however, fuck with indiv Chinese bastard stocks.

Boston commercial RE down 86.5 fucking percent!!!!

Short BXP??

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2009/01/07/boston_area_commercial_real_estate_sales_plunge/
Boston-area commercial real estate sales plunge

’08 decline creates pricing uncertainty
By Casey Ross
Globe Staff / January 7, 2009

Sales of Boston-area commercial properties plummeted 86.5 percent last year, with about $1.35 billion in property changing hands compared to $10 billion in a red-hot 2007, according to the global real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle.

The drop-off portends a turbulent 2009. Now, real estate investors don’t have data to guide them in pricing properties in the soft economy, making it less likely that buyers will come forward out of fear of overpaying.

“Its a huge challenge right now for investors to figure out if they’re getting a fair price,” said Lisa Campoli, executive vice president at commercial brokerage Colliers Meredith & Grew. “During the last downturn in the 1990s, we had the S&L crisis and some banks went under, but there wasn’t the global lack of confidence we’re seeing right now.”

Commercial real estate is the latest sector to be hit by the deepening recession, with the fallout just now sweeping through Boston and other markets. Rents are starting to fall sharply as vacancies pile up.

The impact is especially severe in New York City, where there is a large increase in space available for subleasing, a key measure of weakness in the office market. Available sublease space in Manhattan has increased 43 percent from the end of 2007 as foundering financial companies have rapidly shed jobs and floors of offices.

In Boston, the numbers are not as dramatic, although real estate firms are starting to see similar weaknesses. Available sublease space nearly doubled in the fourth quarter of 2008 from the third quarter, to about 900,000 square feet, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Rents are beginning to slide some, too, though industry officials expect a greater drop in lease prices in coming months.

Still, Boston is not expected to see sublease space jump to 2004 levels, when a wave of financial mergers and turmoil among technology firms put 2.5 million square feet on the market.

Real estate professionals say the relative strength of Boston’s office market – its low vacancy rate and lack of new construction – should help fuel a rebound in sales activity in 2009.

However, insurance companies and other large lenders to commercial buildings continue to reserve cash, which only begets stagnation because buyers cannot finance transactions.

“The key to any meaningful transaction volume in 2009 is the opening of the credit markets,” said Michael Smith, managing partner at Jones Lang LaSalle. “When credit becomes available, transactions will begin to flow again.”

When that happens is anyone’s guess. The uncertainty in credit markets is being fueled by a reevaluation of the way property acquisitions are financed. Real estate professionals say they expect lenders to become stricter, requiring buyers to plunk down 40 to 50 percent of the purchase price in cash in order to get a loan.

Those numbers are analogous to residential lenders requiring 20 percent down payments from home buyers. In both cases, lenders are seeking a return to far more conservative standards after years of little-or-no-cash-down transactions.

Ironically, industry executives said, the impact of those deals may end up helping to fuel the rebound, because owners who stretched to buy buildings in 2006 and 2007 are now facing debt burdens that will cause them to put those assets back on the market, likely at a much lower price.

Edward Maher, an executive director at Cushman & Wakefield, said the firm expects to market about a dozen downtown major properties in coming months. “There are buyers with plenty of dry powder waiting to get back in the market,” he said. “The only problem is, nobody wants to be first.”

PTR = the chinese XOM.

They goin’ down like a cheap ho

punk ass terrorists, prepare to die

Devil dog is a retard. I’ve been at this ‘space alien magician’ shit for a long time.

then they do what they do. but its bs

or can it. jack respects the new black president

then kills a shitload of terroists. no thats way to quick

and schools them while dating a russian super model

and also, real estate of course varies in turbulence, city to city and state to state. Where I live in NC, real estate has not gotten so off balance as it has in all the “hot” spots where the bulk of the problems have occured because of greedy little pimpheads trying to think housing and condo prices would never ever stop going up and bought in at such stupid levels, they all deserve to step in front of a moving train to get it over with….these assheads bought in for speculation mostly and got burned and brought others down with them. Other problems leading into this right now real estate situation are the 100% mortgages banks were eager to hand out like lollypops, and lastly the millions of people out there (and believe me, I’m an architect and see this shit all the time) who simply have not the slightest clue what a house costs to build in the first place and they put their trust in the ball licking “appraisers” who don’t know there asshole from a hole in the ground and can’t tell an asshole if Dennis Kneale was standing in front of them, these asswipes kept appraising houses at higher and higher levels month after month and the banks and idiot buyers took it at face value and here we have the now. It’s just like Jonny Depp said in Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, people are only seeing the high water mark. The high water mark, forget that, take home values from 5 years ago and reset them to today, that is where we will go from here and start over……all the asswipes that bought in, in the last 4 years can just suck pipe, fuck them if they are whinning…..

There was this dipshit builder right up the street from me who bought 90 acres, cut it up into 108 lots and put in around 5 million dollars worth of roads and curbing and entrances etc. then built 8 spec houses to get the thing started. He finished the last spec house in april of 2008 and put them up for sale, all the remaining lots and the 8 houses. All the homes are $800,000.00 to $1,000,000.00, between 5000-11000 sq ft. here it is Jan of 2009, and not one of those houses has yet sold, and all the lots are still unsold…….this is an example of one of these idiots.

Anyone who bought a home 5 years ago or more is fine. All that are complaining are the boneheads of recent.

But the actual situation is this, all across the USA, housing sales will be flat to minus for 2009 because not only are people broke and living on credit cards, no one will be able to whip up 40,000.00 large in cash to put down on a modest, 200,000.00 dollar house when all they have been used to is putting zero down and living fat on credit cards……

That shit is coming to an end. people will play hell coming up with cash to put down on a new house, and even those who have the cash will still be leary of jumping in first due to the possibility of the house falling further in value even from today……

It is all on shake-ee ground right at the moment.

But the rich are still rich….just less rich, which to someone not rich is still fucking rich……

Up here in Bend, Oregon, we have the third worst R.E. market in the U.S., still 47% overvalued after about a 35% correction.

Credit Card companies worldwide are cutting back cardholder credit limits on a trailing basis (i.e, if you have a $5K line and a $2K balance, you just found out your credit limit is now $2300) whoopee: $300 bucks of available credit!

You now need a FICO of about 720 or above to even get a decent auto loan at 8-10+% interest.

Real Estate here is simply not selling. We have over a 14 month inventory, of mostly newer homes. Sellers think there homes are worth way more than they are.

Gasoline, normally higher here because it has to be trucked over the Cascade range, was recently at $1.53 a gallon, now at $1.65. My thesis on that is the stations simply weren’t moving enough fuel to make any money (most folks don’t have to drive far daily up here)

The popular topic at the local Sportsman’s Warehouse is: Move out in the country a ways (we are a city of 78000), kill a few Elk, get a generator/solar panels, plenty of food & a water-well, build a semi-underground concrete and cinder block bunker, stock up on guns and ammunition, and load up on cases of quality liquor (perhaps even building a still)

In addition, get some gold coins, or at least some gold dust, to trade along with your liquor and guns & ammo (a few good looking women could help, also).

This is what they call “preparing for the next leg down” up here in Central Oregon.

Any Questions?

GNE- Go back to licking your ass. You can’t hold a candle to The Fly, as evidenced by the lack of post in your comments section.
Keep on being bullish. as a wise man once said, “Let us be thankful for the fools. But for them the rest of us could not succeed.”

Thanks Danny,

How did you guess?

And T Moe my cat is right here watching.

T MOE
http://www.benelliusa.com/firearms/large/m4PGDesert12Ga.jpg
i fix your link.
wise man once said, “let us be thankful for the fool…”
what makes you think I’m a bull?

if you gotta leak in your sink.
feel free, it’s your sink.

no liquor?
don’t count on the drain game.
or a large desert12ga
or a mormon trying to sell you something.

Yo Fly, I’m a drunk college kid. Do I piss you off? Not in the least right? What if one day I make more money then you. One of us will.

Ouch?

A few things-

“The Fly” has family in Bend, OR.

Comm RE deliquencies are through the roof.

Restaurants and retailers will be shutting down for good, shortly.

Again, remind me why you like stocks?

“Low-er rates”?

Stocks going up on bad news?

Fiscal irresponsibility by our gov’t on an epic scale?

Unemployment ripping?

Question-

How will you fell when stocks start reacting to bad news?

Something to ponder

More bad news on the job situation. I suppose its all priced in..

Unemployment Claims Crash Multiple Websites

Massive Jobs Contraction In Small and Medium Sized Businesses

As Pink Slips Mount, So Do Concerns

LastGasp-a-rino takes down Dimon, a peg or 2.

Coincidentally (or not), JPM looks like a short.

ISRG collapsed AH. FYI

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

Dont forget to stay on top of the earnings calendar lest ISRG surprise buttsekks you.

BTW, those of you that bought the dip before the close yesterday are going to get your face ripped off. Enjoy!

WHATS NEXT
WHATS NEXT
WHATS NEXT

Cant get this out of my head. He should make a “that was easy” staples button, but have it say his phrase “Whats next, whats next, whats next”

1/12/09

Devildog is irrelevant.

Write it down.

-DT

We know that , DT

Been to the Bend, Ore. area while at Sunriver Golf. Always thought the area was overpriced real estate wise relative to the population. That was about five years ago.
The salmon fishing was good though.

We interrupt this thread for an important message:

The Lunatic Fringe has taken control of this blog.

Readers are advised to get in the funnel voluntarily and support our thesis of the GREATER GREAT DEPRESSION.

NEW LOWS BY JANUARY 12th. REVOLUTION STARTS TODAY.

WRITE IT DOWN.

CNN Money headline:

Number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits fell last week by 24,000 to 467,000. More soon.

Devildog;

If you are ahead money sell out and learn how to trade. I am serious fucker. Your EGO will be all you have left in the end. You still scare the piss out of me. Can you look at youself in the mirror and say I am smarter than 10′s of millons of people or just lucky. If your predictions are true a gun and money in a body belt will due best. Your stock gains will be worth nothing sell out and hide your profits now genius.

Macke’s beloved Wal-mart just took a run-ee shit……

Lets short something……lets try UYM

Freaking dollar is a tough trade, Jake. You have actually turn on a bloody dime. I’ve made some money over the last day or two, but i gotta tell ya it’s hard. On more than one occasion I’ve got in then the price action shows something else and I’ve turned in the matter of minutes.. turned and gone the other way.

you couldn’t give gold away in the Asian market today it looked like it was going to crap out and now look at it.

—————-
Funny comment , Fly

I could see the buck at 1.7 to the Euro or 1.05. Both seem plausible over the next several months. I think though a stronger dollar looks more so.

DXY crashing (down 98 cent). Oil bears about to be tarred, feathered, set aflame.

Caution.

________

Your entire thesisfor a bull market is the collapse of the dollar.

What the fuck is wrong with you and the Kid?

Why do you equate my belief that this bullshit will reflate with “a bull market leaning?”

Not to sound like one of Danny’s Sociology professors, but “it’s all relative” is important right now.

_______

Yogi, my LT target for the S&P is 150. Hopefully, that will hold.

DEVILDOG…time for your medication now…

Jake, please keep buying stocks.

Ronny James DEO, up for a second day.

Odd, no?

_______

Dawg:

I will continue to trade stocks, which is what you do in this kind of market.

I will continue to watch my Giants in the playoffs this weekend as well, which is what you do when your owner is not a Sleestak who purchases high price trash in the free agent market, only to discard it at season’s end.

Jerry Jones – the new patron saint of Giants fans.

_______

Asking Devildog for an S&P price target is like asking Ray Charles for a ride to the airport.

Welcome back from the weekend! As the rest of the market returns from the holiday break, we should see more volume and volatility creep back into stocks. Only tomorrow will tell as to whether or not this is a positive or a negative for stock prices.

At the moment, futures prices are trading slightly lower. The Dow is off by 44 points, the S&P down 5 points, and the Nasdaq is down 7 points. Crude oil is up another buck, trading at $47.30. As we talk technicals, take a look at a 5 day chart of the mini S&P futures contract.

Looking at the chart above of the mini S&P futures contract, prices are a little extended to the upside. It would make sense to see the averages retest old resistance levels as support. This means as long the S&P holds 915, the Dow holds 8900, and the Nasdaq holds 1600…the trend still points to higher prices. In fact, if those support levels are tested this week, that will offer the next best point in which to add to your bullish inventory.

On an intra-day basis, heading into the open keep in mind the daily pivot points, courtesy of thinkorswim.

S&P

R2 954.57

R1 940.33

PP 918.42

S1 904.08

S2 882.17

Dow

R2 9199

R1 9076

PP 8895

S1 8772

S2 8591

Below is this weeks Weekly Watchlist. There are a tremendous number of price patterns and bullish/bearish trading ideas to consider this week, despite the tremendous advance in stocks last week. As always, click on any of the links to be taken to thumbnail charts. Enjoy!

Price Patterns

Triangles

ACM, CBRL, FDO, EBS, LHCG, SAFM, TWP, NTRI, AXB, RYN, GPN, BCR, CLH, MEE, ENER, SII, NOV, GMXR, OIH, LTM, NST, GB, GTIV, BLK, CF, NS, APC, AMGN, NTRS

Inverse Head & Shoulders

FCX, KSU, HOS, WTI, ESV, CAM, MELI, X, ZEUS, TBSI

Flags

HEI, UNH, MLM, VMI, CMP, JOSB, RYAAY, IPCC

“Buy the Dips” (Bullish Stocks Near Support)

RNT, NFLX, GTXI, PEET, REGN, WTR, WCN, BTU, ORA, QCOM, BRCM, UBB, BRP, GOLD, POWL, MDT

“Sell the Rips” (Bearish Stocks Near Resistance)

SAFT, LG, FLO, KMB, PRAA, OMI, CLX, SIVB, SYNA, GLF, CSX, NSC, DNEX, LUFK, CHTT, AXYS, CVS, FAST, CHE

Potential Breakouts

CMO, NAT, CMN, NLY, ORLY, ASPG, GPC, AVAV, XLU, TBT

started PCX 300 @ $7.15

USO filled that 1/2 gap, btw.

_______

and started General TSO’s chicken 200 @ $14.20

if congress gives oil companies money, thats when i am officially out..

DannyBoy – “Only 0.55?” You need a lesson in option pricing.

Snipe –

For the benefit of certain loyal readers, that’s “Karen TSO’s Chicken.”

________

Devildog is going to be mad because it looks the market is CHURNING and it looks its going to bounce and not going down. Indicators are already start looking oversold in just 1 1/2 days.

Jake, I don’t give 2 shits for the cowboys so trying to piss me off that way is a waste of time. I haven’t watched a “pro” football game in 5 years including the super shit bowl. I’m a road race series fan only. Try again.

Freddy, please keep buying bull market stocks.

Karen (choking) TSO’s chicken

I am already up 48% in 6 days thanks to the bears, im just waiting for my turn…dont worry, when it bounces, i will see what you do.

Devildog,

Go hate now.

Return (6 days) 48.51% Annualized Return 2,811,840,977,298.77%
High 48.51% Volatility 103%
Low 3.95% Sharpe Ratio 27,205,770,141.30

DRYS is rolling over……..

freddy, stick your stupid indicators up your ass. New lows ahead. Write that DOWN.

__________________
punyandy Says:

Asking Devildog for an S&P price target is like asking Ray Charles for a ride to the airport.
_________________

Priceless!

Not a peep out of the Devil Douche when the market is up, but when it’s negative, he spews his chocolate diareah like a drunken monkey.

moe

Not sure it’s as bad as you portray it to be. Yes, stimulus is a shitty thing to do spent badly the way the congress is about to. However you don’t try to constrain deficits in a recession or you actually do end up with a depression.

it’s claimed that 40% of the stimulus package will be in short term tax relief so it’s not so bad. The other thing is that the spending is going to be spread over several years whereas the tax part of the package will be almost immediate relief. if that’s the case it will be short term positive as tax cuts will help out.

It’s a homies (XHB,ITB etf) kind of daytrading day?
Plus regional banks (KRE etf).

he isn’t a Marxist. he’s a middle of the road dem and has a pretty decent cabinet excepting the idiots in the environment side. However the enviro crazies will be trumped by the economics team.

the other thing he’s mentioned is that entitlements may get shellacked which is actually a good thing.

it’s claimed that 40% of the stimulus package will be in short term tax relief so it’s not so bad.

If it’s “short term” it is.

What is wrong with these Dems that they don’t understand it’s the SPENDING that should be “short term” and the tax cuts that should be long?

I mean, all politics aside, economically speaking a SHORT TERM TAX CUT means absolutely bubkis, since tax cuts’ greatest effects are in their ability to change LONG TERM CAPITAL PLANNING by the investing/operating private markets.

This is Econ 101, folks, can we send them a class?

____________

I know Jake but it could have been worse. Watch though, once they set up the tax relief it will be almost impossible to take it away as the crying will be heard from coast to coast.

Don’t forget the Reagan also imposed short term tax relief in the form of accelerated deprecation allowances etc. and it did help get things moving in 81.

no, it’s not socialist.it’s interventionist, which may sound similar but it isn’t as socialism and interventionism are two entirely different things.

yes, i agree that stimulus spending is a rotten way to go about things as tax cuts and tax relief to firms would be a much better way to go, but it isn’t going to kill the economy as you suggest it is. Short term it will help it.

Economic management philosophies move in cycles I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Friedmanism makes a come back in 6 months.

Look they constrained the deficit in 29/32 and it absolutely killed the economy. it was part of the reason there was a depression.

What would kill the economy is if they tried to freeze wages and firing. if they did that it will turn into a depression and I don’t think Summers is going to suggest that. Summers is actually a pretty decent mainstream economist with his head screwed on and he will be the one who the prez will listen to as he’s attached to the white house.

Obama is actually speaking at George Mason University today. Somehow I don;t think a socialist would be making speeches at George Mason which sells a pretty free market economic philosophy.

Done with homies longs.
Looking for SMH,GG short setups.
And why isn’t Leave It To Beaver on Anymore? May have to cancel my cable.

I am about to kill this bitch KIM, she wants to go down like Blow Job Betty but then changes her mind. What is up with this, retail closing stores and this ho thinks she will make money?

Bullshit! Only Government? Truly socialist

Gold and gold stocks love the Plan.
I am going to get one of those windmill turbine jobs. Guess I’ll be moving to the Texas panhandle.
Do it for the kids.

Bot some MVIS. Perfect stair step level.

They will receive a lot of press via MacWorld and CES.

Gotta go either to Lubbock or Midland. Whichever has better jalapeños.

Goddamn I love snake oil!!

The five minute Throat Trade – short when The One starts speaking, close when you hear the final applause.

Article on Commercial RE for FLY

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2009/01/07/20090107biz-officespace0108.html

Devildog, you’re an idiot. Stop being such an arrogant perma-bear. Being right means nothing. You almost as bad as “mustard seed” perma-bull Larry Kudlow.

Making money is everything, it’s obvious you have been toasted last few weeks. You were the loser lately, admit it and move on.

No market collapse today.
Russell 2000 (IWM +), and banks and may financials doing well.

caddy, you’re wrong.

I don’t know about what DD says about Larry Krudlow but he certainly has an “Al Capone” stylish sense of fashion.
I think he gets his suits at that Hong Kong tailor that keeps advertising in the Journal.

EB, I don’t scare out of my positions due to rally bullshit when I know the S&P is going to 150. I have not lost a penny and being SHORT from 9/19 for the next new lows at 650 – 700 is when I will cover for this swing. I will make your gains look like the day trading decimal dust they are. Now fuck off and buy some stocks for the next leg to 1100 please.

Amazing, SPX and INDU are at the 20ma and 50ma and they already oversold. Gold and silver trying to turn up from oversold.
Looks like churning so far…
JAJA

Artist, would love for that to happen. Maybe the masses will kill his elitist ass during the Revolution.

Anyone else like the AMTD 4 SWIM deal? I think it rocks and AMTD is a winner.

for the SRS lovers, many of these REITS are trading at PE’s much higher then what the actual properties are worth from a valuation standpoint, ie. GRM’s, cap rates etc…..the reits are overvalued by 2x..