You know, I can’t give a valid reason for the market rally, aside from a pending stimulus plan and/or the market is sick of going down? Knowing full well how stupid people are, I bought up blocks of UYM, as if my head was on fire. The rational thing to do, in my opinion, is to fade the rally. I might start doing that, sometime very, very soon.
Until then, when in Rome, you might as well do as the Romans do and snatch the purses of slow minded tourists. And, you might want to buy what has been tossed aside, such as oil and other commodities.
But, in the long run, it is a mistake to believe the economy will inflate, at least right away.
Enough of the annoying voice of reason. Let’s talk about what’s running:
Infrastructure plays: ACM, PCR, FWLT and FLR.
Oil: RIG, NOV, OXY, HP
Tech: RIMM, AAPL, HPQ, IBM
However, at the end of the day, you must smoke ample doses of crack cocaine to think the market will go much higher, with SKF, SRS down at these levels. I don’t even want to talk about FXP.
My recovery plan was put into place on Friday. I ate a lot of losses in shorts and hedged with going long UYM/KBR. And, I built up a cash position of more than 30%, which will help me make quick/scalp trades.
As of 12pm, the only moves I made was to cover my GVA short and buy more UYM.
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hey fly whats your ytd gains at now?
http://gawker.com/5063337/the-secret-pleasures-of-dr-doom
Meatballs Nouriel Roubini partying like a rockstar! How funny!
Something is definitely brewing here…Vix is down only 1.4% after a 300 points move…either the VIX will breakdown or expecting rally to fade; you chose.
triple top breakdowns on many of the iETFs…
ERX.
Told you Pop.
Is it possible at all the GS loses less than $1B? The street has $2B on the expectations table, with whispers of a $4B loss. If GS can lose less than $1B, or god forbid somehow manage to claim some measly green number, then you bet the market can go up from here. I GS beats expectations, we will knock on the Dow 10,000 door before Xmas. I think they report a week from today, right?
I bought a huge 300 share block of UYM myself today!!
Market is anticipating the GM and F bailout. Apparently it will be good news.
Don’t fight the tape, the Fed, the Treasury or global policymakers.
Once again FLY sees tomorrow while you stare at your charts of today.
Goldie, a block is 10,000 shares. 3oo shares is 3 lots.
Government stimulus gone wild by almost every government in the world is making bearded women and abnormally tall midgets put the global growth trade back on.
Umm Dale,
Get a sense of humor bro.
This is just another one of those times where “the Fly” is actually winning, despite the appearance of losing badly.
-DT
GS reports Dec 16th
“The Snuggie” , A blanket with sleeves!!!!
Fuck Yeah….The Recession is Over!
The Snuggie Rally is on!
Again, buy TNA AND USO
MY cost of TNA @25 USO @34
Told you, guys!
mrkcbill-
How did that bet workout for you?
You can fight the Fed, the Treasury or global policymakers. But never never never fight the tape.
I am boring.
The valid reason is technicals…..it will not last too much longer…
Ed GS reports may be a little better than everyone thinks..
I bought a truck load this morning and am up enough to not worry about much. I will for sure what I am going to do by end of day being shit scared of what could happen tomorrow.
Stocks are up because I made short bets in my trading account.
There is no other reason.
You’re welcome.
Anton- I sincerely appreciate your efforts. Forget about that whole “drawing the line” thing if you don’t mind.
_____
Jake,
I am your hero to zero.
On a separate topic: The Iggles? Really?
time to step into the 3x short TZA… there are so many techincal red flags challenging this market right now not to mention the fundamentals (stocks > 15x 2009 earnings and almost at 2010 normalized earnings)….
I can’t divulge all the technical reasons to be short but any trader on this board knows what I’m talking about.
THIS IS THE EASIEST SHORT EVER…
I don’t understand why the FLY is messing with the UYM though when basic materials are the least overbought group…. a levered index short here would do the trick here.
The fly will win regardless of what he does but he’ll win less with the UYM than with the TZA.
Donny,
I haven’t been walking right for a day or so.
Sooners are fucking strong and well coached. 60 pts 5 weeks in a row! Congrats I be watchin on 1/8 …Go Big 12
FLY: SRS at these levels…Are you putting more hedging in place in the 80’s???
I’m putting a post up to explain my thoughts.
The Fly,
Thanks in advance.
Buying some SRS near 85 for a trade… all the stocks in that ETF are bumping up against resistance.
buying until 9200
I will be short there.