iBankCoin

Battered Wife Syndrome

There comes a point when an investor loses his desire to make the hard trade. Instead of going with his gut, he will go with the herd, buying or selling, because it’s easy. Deep down, he knows the herd is always wrong, but follows them anyway, in an effort to outsource investment decisions.

If this is happening to you right now, pay attention, else find your account in a very egregious negative equity position.

The herd is stupid, full of gay bovine, who rather play Jenga at night, than study the history of the stock market. These people wear green leotards and frequent Broadway plays, on a regular basis, in order to conform. They visit third world nations, in order to “take in the atmosphere,” and donate money to criminal charities. If you are sick of losing money, instead of following them, go to cash.

Let’s say you made a few bad trades, and your account went from 100k to 70k. At 70k, you may begin to panic and switch positions to better suit the current trends. The only problem with doing that is you are late. You already missed the meat and potatoes of the rally. More often than not, switching teams, after a good kaning, will send your bullshit account down to 50k.

Let’s get more specific:

Say you are long 1,000 FAZ, 500 FXP and your head is on fire. First, dunk your head into a toilet bowl and flush, in order to douse the flames. Then, instead of selling all of your losers (FAZ, FXP), why not hedge it via a FAS or UYM long?

That’s exactly what I did on Friday. I sold 1/2 of my inverse shorts, regardless of the losses and went long UYM, FAS and KBR. As a result, I’m on the fucking hamster wheel to nowhere, FAST, today, up no more than .00001%.

But, my next move will be Godly. I will attempt to time my sells to coordinate with a near term top, always a dicey endeavor. However, at the same time, leave enough cash aside to correct mistakes, via going long/short for scalp trades.

Bottom line: Don’t give up, just because you’re a loser without a brain. Think about the market as a battlefield, where every decision you make gets you closer to killing that fucking homo in the green leotards.

If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

151 comments

  1. Duane

    wow, first… lol

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  2. Jakegint

    Better yet, instead of lighting and dousing one’s hair all day long, why not take a step back and look for a cycle bottom?

    Re-read your comments section on Thursday and Friday.

    It was filled with Devil Dog acolytes.

    _______

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  3. 4fl3x

    I’ve been hedged for almost 2 weeks and my account has gone down every day.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  4. Ed

    R u going to get another visit from the 9ft lady with brass knuckles tonight?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  5. Jakegint

    Anton:

    Re; Iggles.

    I made a short comment yesterday about that. We shot our last offensive coordinator for insisting — Costanza like — that Eli Manning would be the first weak armed QB to be able to throw the ball in Giants Stadium in December, no matter the evidence to the contrary.

    I think we may have another OC (Gilbride) in our cross hairs if he doesn’t “get the email” very, very soon.

    I am especially concerned given the high likelihood of our having home field advantage throughout the playoffs — in Hoffaland — in freaking January.

    ___________

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  6. TuckerTrades

    Well said Mr. Fly,

    Obama said it is going to get worse before it gets better, so it has to be true…we are atleast 1 year out from the end of the recession so six months out from a sustained rally…

    Short just feels right into this rally…out of all the short ETF choices FXP sucks

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  7. Boring Guy

    Dont try and solve a crappy position with another crappy position. You just end up with 2 crappy positions.

    Position size, stop loss, target.

    I am boring.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  8. The Fly

    a few things:

    Titans are 12-1

    I am fully hedged.

    I am not going to sell my longs today. That seems too easy.

    Jake has morphed into the opposite of DevilDog, also very annoying, indeed.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  9. The Fly

    Boring Guy:

    What do you do for fun?

    Library duties?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  10. Big Mike

    Well said, Fly…

    So your saying theres no hope, and I should jump off the bridge?

    Market is rallying because its discounting Obama’s stimulus. Watch…whenever he officially announces the plan, market will barely go up or could sell off, as the famous “Buy the rumor, Sell the news” rhetoric will come in play.

    TOP PICK: SHORT ZLC (goes down whether market up 1,000 or not)

    I do agree, the upside is rather limited…too late to ride this rally. Ill say we finish in the red today, although marginally.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  11. Juice

    Don’t know how you come up with your plethora of adjunctive adjectives, but I tip my hat to your moxy.

    MMM a fly in the ointment. I may short some more.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  12. Danny

    Well said.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  13. Boring Guy

    buying SDS here btw. tight leash. daytrade.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  14. Whaddya tell a wife with 2 black eyes? Nuttin’, ya already told her twice.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  15. Donny

    This Bullshit rally is just that … Bullshit. Only a complete idiot would actually believe that we’re only going to have another (typical) recession. We’ve had massive destruction of capital all over the globe.

    This rally is nothing more than the eye of the storm. Bulls that buy with conviction, instead of trading, will certainly be deBalled … Again.

    8)

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  16. Dinosaur Trader

    Or, perhaps this is the scenario where “the Fly” is indeed losing badly when in fact he appears to be losing badly.

    (This will be my last “fly-hating” comment. I just wanted to give it a whirl.)

    -DT

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  17. Karl Marx

    Listen to Volcker today – under Obama, financials will be more tightly regulated than a nuclear power facility. Reduce earnings estimates on top of the rest of the shit this decade and then ask how much money you can make off gravel and culverts?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  18. The Fly

    DT is a registered sex offender.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  19. Steve The Neighbor
    Steve The Neighbor

    Yes, I have this syndrome and I need help.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  20. bravo

    Watching the Greek riots reminds me of living in Detroit in the early 90’s. Gunshots abounded, especially after the Malice Green death. Ahhh, good times, especially the Coney Island Dogs….

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  21. TraderCaddy

    The only problem with Paul Volcker is that he uses an Apple IIE and believes that the NY Times is a good newspaper.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  22. Rudolph the Brownose Reindeer
    Rudolph the Brownose Reindeer

    Fighting the tape is fruitless and leads to deballing. However, this rally is bullshit. Fund managers are desperate to paint the fucking tape as much as they can so they are only down 25-30% for the year instead of 40-60%.

    The new deal is just like the old deal, worthless.

    PS:

    Fuck you santa!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  23. GW

    LOFL..gay bovine playing jenga….classic FLY…..
    Classic hedge 1000 UYG with 100 FAZ

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  24. CAP

    During the last 3 months, the market repeatedly raped the bulls. Now the market has started to rape the bears. The market is a serial rapist with a penchant for bestiality.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  25. hmmmmm

    Meredith Whitney wears her underwear on the outside of her pants and arm wrestles Macy’s perfume department men.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  26. T MOE

    Dow up 200 points the S&P up 20 and the VIX off only .23

    Rally not sustainable

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  27. colombian guy

    this post is sort of what i did based on your sacred teachings.
    i skipped the flushing part ,thats why i am -.467 on the red unlike you.

    apart from señor tropicana is there anyone else in disgust with FXP ? im not trading that shit ever again.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  28. T MOE

    What’s up MS? Not taking part in this rally

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  29. Boring Guy

    Fly,

    Indeed I love libraries. It is from books that i know that 30% bear market rallies are totally possible. And that is why I am sitting in cash and scalping my sweet QLD/SDS rather than pulling my comb-over out.

    Stay flexible.
    Stay disciplined.

    I am boring.

    .

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  30. bravo

    Rebecca Jarvis vs. Erin Burnett…who ya got?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  31. Jakegint

    Jake has morphed into the opposite of DevilDog, also very annoying, indeed.

    Opposite stance of Fly = “annoying.”

    Now, my feelings are bruised.

    ______

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  32. told you to buy

    FLY SAID ON FRIDAY!!
    “Looking at some of my Godly indicators, I can tell you with a certain amount of certainty, barring martians landing on the NYSE and buying up all of our companies on the cheap this afternoon, we should close down between 2-5%.”

    THEN YOU SAID YOU “went long UYM, FAS and KBR “?? What are you talking about??

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  33. TraderCaddy

    MS has PMS.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  34. Goldie

    No contest Rebecca Jarvis

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  35. sniper6

    I feel like I need to be shorting something here, just don’t know where to start. I think maybe PCX, up like 20% today? That can’t last for long!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  36. Jakegint

    As for the Titans…

    If they can beat the Steelers at home in December, they will earn my undying respect. The Steelers look to kill people in that frozen bowl full of Rust Belt efftards in December.

    Until then, recall — Drunky Collins was once my quarterback, and my Giants memory is elephantine, at least.

    Watch the back foot!

    _______

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  37. marlin Y

    How in the world can SKF be flat on the year while UYG is down large?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  38. Anton Cigur

    Jake,

    I am convinced that “larger forces” are at work, as evidenced not only by the Giants’ loss, but by the 49ers win against the other NY team. I have played in pick up games with better organization than the SF team.

    I tell you that the fabric of reality is definitely becoming unraveled, like some bullshit Banana Republic sweater, with the nonsensical stock market rally and these sports book-shattering football results.

    It is surely a sign that somewhere in the world the anti-Christ has been born.

    As to Fly’s most recent post, I think myself and idiots like me are too late to hedge and way too early to feel anything but pain with these fucked inverse etfs, so I’m just going to stand here and bleed, St. Sebastian-style, and try not to become insane with indignation and remorse like our permabear friend, Mr. Dog.

    Time to again wander away from this beloved blog for awhile and go “do some work,” as if it mattered, and maybe eat a sandwich.

    While I am now totally convinced that I have less than no skill at trading, and in fact, may be “trade-tarded,” I still do know something about catching a high-quality buzz and recommend to you, Mr. Gint, a very affordable red wine that I have been buying by the case (for as long as I can afford to) for the holidays from Orin Cellars called “The Prisoner.” http://www.orinswift.com/wines/the_prisoner.php

    Thanks for your attempts to offer sensible advice last week.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  39. pn

    Erin has nice lips.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  40. Fly Jr

    Pop told me to sell ERX Friday.

    Glad I didn’t listen.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  41. Pete

    CAP…for a guy that sucks his own dick…you have a decent vocab with words like penchant and bestiality…impressive.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  42. DEVILDOG

    Sorry boys…slept late today…very wild weekend. NEW LOWS this month.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  43. jungleegirl

    The herd is stupid, full of gay bovine, who rather play Jenga at night, than study the history of the stock market.

    Brilliant prose. Fly, will you marry me?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  44. bravo

    With all these these public works jobs being rolled out, new roads, bridges, etc…, how does that help the hapless paper pushing, service sector unskilled slob that is getting laid off. I mean, is a mortgage pusher gonna suddenly get hired by FLR and start designing bridges? Or handling heavy machinery?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  45. sniper6

    I feel like I need to be shorting something here. Partly out of boredom, partly because this little rally doesn’t seem to have legs, partly because I am 100% long and uncomfortable with that. Maybe a short on PCX, up 20% on the day, that shit can’t last too long. Am I wrong to feel that way?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  46. Fly Jr

    Market prints 10k this month.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  47. El Scorcho

    Columbian Dude,

    I’m holding my FXP (bought in at $53), and I’ve got a buy order in at $25 for double my current holdings.

    Also, bought large quantities of April SRS/SKF calls this morning as everyone from Nashville to Katmandu was running around soiling their Spiderman underoos.

    My investing philosophy: Grab your nuts or grab your ankles.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  48. Jakegint

    Just ran through today’s comments thus far.

    Majority beartarded.

    “Disbelieving.”

    Tell you anything?

    ________

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  49. Thunderpup

    Clear for takeoff to 950.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  50. Danny

    yeah, it tells me that a bunch of suckers got caught short and that once they finish squeezing the last of the late to the party shorts, the rally will fall apart.

    we need institutional buyers, not a lack of sellers. Why do you think heavy players will come in here Jake?

    From my work and sources, they aren’t. I think upside is capped at 920, maybe 950. Risk reward and personal preference dictates if the percentage points are worth chasing.

    A buy at 850 – 875 seems much more prudent.

    Watching for the late day squeeze/breakdown.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  51. Pete

    Jakegint says:
    Just ran through today’s comments thus far.
    Majority beartarded.
    “Disbelieving.”
    Tell you anything?

    Yes…you are apparently bored to tears.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  52. Jakegint

    RE: above.

    Rebecca Jarvis — hot AND smart!

    _________

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  53. marlin Y

    bump

    How in the world can SKF be flat on the year while UYG is down large?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  54. Pete

    Rebecca is smokin

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  55. hmmmmm

    Meredith Whitney makes all of her recommendations at 3:16.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  56. Danny

    marlin – compounding losses

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  57. sniper6

    mmmmmmm, Rebecca Darst is pretty sweet too. I am definitely thinking, multiple O’s for her.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  58. marlin Y

    Yah, I know about compounding losses and slippage but 90% difference? Isn’t that a bit, ummm, severe?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  59. Jakegint

    Anton sez:

    I am convinced that “larger forces” are at work, as evidenced not only by the Giants’ loss, but by the 49ers win against the other NY team. I have played in pick up games with better organization than the SF team.

    All logically explainable. The Eagles, with a healthy Westbrook and a chastened (new Papa) McNabb are very dangerous, I don’t care who they play. Note the (ten days ago, important) ass whupping they put on the Cardinal Air Circus in Philly. They also ALWAYS have a decent defense.

    The Niners, otoh, are “reborn” at least temporarily, thanks to the wide eyed insanity of Mike Singletary, may his line ever increase. I fuggin love that maniac.


    It is surely a sign that somewhere in the world the anti-Christ has been born.

    Well, it is interesting that this “Fly Jr.” character has just made the scene….

    _____________

    Thanks for the Prisoner rec — I’ve seen it on the shelves but never indulged. I do like the meritages though, and will try this Zin heavy one.

    If you like Zin, I’ve been a long time fan of Seghessio Vineyards, but was enjoying paying $15 a bottle for it. Now that efftard Parker (or one of those mooks) put it on “a list” and it’s $40!

    Fuckers!

    _________

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  60. mdawsz

    marlin Y,

    Answer: Short both of them. The inverse ETF’s are destroyers of wealth. Same principle for FXP and FXI (but note that FXP is 2x leveraged).

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  61. Small Fry

    On a technical level, it seems like if we are at 900 on the S&P at Noon, it could go close to 1,000. Some great short plays coming up. SHLD is going ridiculous on the stock buyback news from a few days ago. Target price: 0. And SRS at 85? Talk about CHRISTMAS!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  62. Fly Jr

    Meredith Whitney shorted WFC at 22.

    LMFAO

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  63. Fly Jr. – what will the market do in the final hour today?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  64. Danny

    Marlin – I don’t think you do. Slippage is something entirely different.

    if you have skf at 300 then the fins rally 30%, it has a 60% loss from 300. It wasnt designed to show a gain from x date based on an index. daily movements ONLY!

    that answers your question.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  65. Big Mike

    How can you bulls out there be so bullish when the bond market is not improving and predicting something much worse?

    Something has to give, don’t you think? If the market goes to 1050, I am all-in on the short-side.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  66. Danny

    jake, answer me damnnnnnn youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  67. Jana

    God, I lost my ass playing Strip Jenga one night with those leotard ‘tards. They distracted me with musical renditions from Wicked.

    I’ll never make that fucking mistake again.

    It’s Strip Ants in Your Pants for me from now on.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  68. cheesefries

    Selling QLD and CHK and buying SRS and FXP

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  69. wildraptor

    It’s so funny that ever since I’ve been wearing these green leotards that my portfolio has been rockin’. You bears best get on the bull train or risk having your gall bladders removed.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  70. Fly Jr

    Go up.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  71. Fly Jr

    My Pop has lost all confidence. He wants me to take over the family blog and business.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  72. chivasontherocks

    stocks up big

    oil up

    dollar down big

    light at the end of the tunnel getting further away

    life is good

    so far for the day

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  73. Jr., “The Fly” is the Godfather – really – no kidding.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  74. CAP

    Danny – I’ll answer for Jake.

    * Downtrend line has been broken.
    * Up days have been accompanied by higher volume vs down days
    * 9 of the last 11 sessions on the Dow and S&P have been green signaling a trend change

    Institutional buyers don’t come in at bottoms. They came when its safe(r) to buy stocks i/e after a 10% move off the lows. The market didn’t bottom because of institutional buyers. It simply ran out of sellers. With all the cash on the sideline, performance anxiety into year end could play a huge part in a bull run. Dow 10,000 is not out of the questions before New Years. This is a crazy market and the craziness can run both ways i.e up or down. We have seen the downside, now its time to see the upside.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  75. Jakegint

    we need institutional buyers, not a lack of sellers. Why do you think heavy players will come in here Jake?

    Bear rallies come on stockinged feet.

    When UUP breaks below $25.90, then the elephants will make themselves known. Right now, they play in the dark pools, away from Danny’s prying eyes.

    _______

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  76. The Contractor

    Jarvis looks like Beavis’ little sister.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  77. Jakegint

    God, I lost my ass playing Strip Jenga one night with those leotard ‘tards. They distracted me with musical renditions from Wicked.

    Was that the guys from Macy’s?

    _____

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  78. The Contractor

    Is it not too late for hedgies to run this up to make one last hurrah for the year?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  79. kidstock

    Hey Fly…try swinging for singles instead of hitting one outta the park. Home runs will come in time.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  80. hmmmmm

    Meredith Whitney doesn’t own a dryer, she uses her clothesline.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  81. Zomer

    Stuck with FAZ and FXP with fabulous Adjusted cost basis of $60 and $85 respectively. Feels great. seeing as I am stuck and thought about selling, went and read Denniger market ticker which made me feel better about my positions.
    Other than reading some bear blog, any other advice out there. Jump ship….?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  82. Jakegint

    I concur with Cap on some of that.

    _____

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  83. cheesefries

    Did I just see Merlin driving his 64 Impala down Broadway?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  84. Fly Jr

    The “godfather” is getting senial.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  85. Danny

    CAP –

    “We have seen the downside, now its time to see the upside.”

    That is a GAMBLERS FALLACY. I don’t rule upside out, but “we’re due” is not the reason.

    Let me do a little theatrics here, as I have been waiting for a chance to do a little screenplay.

    ——–

    Father, I need $100 to buy stock in the local land and pineapple company.

    What has piqued your interest in Mr. Barnaby’s pined apple orchard, my charming son?

    Well father, the security has advanced 9 of the last 11 days.

    And of the severe drought coming, my boy?

    Surely it has been priced in, need I show you the downtrend line we broke on the daily price graphing?

    That won’t be necessary. What makes you think, my clever boy, that after this initial pop, Barnaby’s Pined Apples won’t suffer further, unexpected duress?

    Because up days had more volume than down days.

    and Fin.

    Sorry Cap, but the only thing that wasn’t just googleeyes in those explanations was Jake’s comment re the dollar, which is correct.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  86. Fly Jr

    Volume is picking up.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  87. Danny

    and Cap, although I do really disagree with you, I wasn’t tryin to insult your point of view at all, I just really wanted to write that screenplay iso don’t take that as a personal attack. Any allusion to you being my son or that your intelligence is similarly diminutive is incorrect and not the point of my awesome screenplay

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  88. Generational OIL BOTTOM Picker
    Generational OIL BOTTOM Picker

    Having been correct calling the:

    GENERATIONAL OIL TOP at above $130 this spring;

    GENERATIONAL STOCK MARKET BOTTOM about Nov 20;

    GENERATIONAL GOLD-SILVER PRICE BOTTOM at the end of last week, I now offer you…TADA!!!!

    A GENERATIONAL OIL PRICE BOTTOM!

    The $40 price reached over the weekend is an UNSUSTAINABLE BOTTOM.

    The crude producers like Saudi, Russia and Venezuela can’t stand that low a price, and will shortly be curtailing production which will get the price up to $50 to $100, most likely $70, within the next year.

    Position yourself accordingly with your investments. And our Government should RIGHT NOW be topping offf our Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

    GAWD is is boring to be so right so often!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  89. Thunderpup

    Didn’t realize the oil market was in such contango.

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/12/08/50144/profiting-from-a-contango-not-so-easy/

    Does look bullish.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  90. gatorman

    Gators 45-OKies 14

    that Nicolle chick on FBN in the mornings would kick Erin’s cosmetically-enhanced ass 7 days a week, and look damn fine doing it.

    Master Fly, when can I get my PPT machine, and is compatible with my kids Wii system?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  91. chivasontherocks

    there is nothing more dangerous than a little knowledge

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  92. Jakegint

    Experience helps.

    That’s why I still listen to my elders.

    On certain subjects, at least.

    _______

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  93. Fly Jr

    I kept telling Pop that $40 oil was a joke. The towel heads have Dubai skyscrapers to finish and citigroup stock to buy.

    Shorting energy here has got to be the dumbest idea Pop has had in a loooooooong time.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  94. Gary Schilling

    Hey fellow Bearshitters, I’ll be on Bloomberg @ 3:15 pm.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  95. Fly Jr

    The PPT machine needs new batteries

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  96. punyandy

    Fly Jr is trying to be the anti-Devildog. Both are annoying as hell, and complete paper traders.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  97. Danny

    Bulls can have their time, it doesn’t matter to me, just don’t get too excited.

    you realize there is strong resistance all over the 9 area in hte SP

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  98. chivasontherocks

    Jake,

    amen to that. you know Jake, to this day, i like to run things by my dad. he is 82. some things not all.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  99. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Jake – FWIW – I’m with you on this rally. We will see how far it goes in the fullness of time. My guess is it goes much farther than anyone suspects, and get’s a lot of sheeples believing it’s a new bull market, before the bear returns in full DevilDog form.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  100. Woodshedder

    Perhaps the long trade is the hard trade?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  101. Fly Jr

    Dow prints 10k this year.
    Book Dano

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  102. Goldie

    F,C,UYM,SCHN, Got my SRS hedged with URE… I’m feeling Flyish today!!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  103. Fly Jr

    New ETF by Rydex to be rolled out this week. I guess it shorts the PPT.

    Maybe Pop can hedge himself with it?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  104. punyandy

    Fly Jr –

    Say hi to Angelo Mozillo for me.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  105. Neil Sedaka

    Bennet Sedacca

    11:25:00 AM

    No positions in stocks mentioned.

    MS Cutting 2009 Earnings Estimates
    I hear Morgan Stanley (MS) just lowered its 2009 EPS number to $53.

    The interesting part of this exercise is that the buy side started at $110. So it only missed by, if MS is right, a mere 50%.

    S&P GAAP #’s are in the $49 vicinity and my firm’s estimate is closer to $40-45.

    So if folks think that stocks are ‘cheap’ at 900 SPX, I beg to differ. Can they rally? Of course.

    But with initial claims now averaging 500,000 a month and job losses mounting, I humbly disagree with stock buyers who are buying on the belief that stocks are historically cheap.

    Granted, my firm is neither long nor short, but I’m looking forward to Santa Claus giving me a better dark side opportunity.

    Bennet Sedacca

    01:03:16 PM

    No positions in stocks mentioned.

    What if…
    …Insurance companies had to mark their bonds to market? Like the rest of us. At present they only mark them when they stop paying or become ‘impaired’.

    And like Met Life (MET) just stated, it sees ‘corporate bond losses for a couple of years’.

    And I could go on and on and on at how pitiful the portfolios are at these companies.

    They include Hartford Financial (HIG) which doubled on Friday.

    Unlike many others, I have taken the time to review their portfolios. And they are, in a word, horrible.

    Bennet Sedacca

    10:07:20 AM

    Position in AXP

    The credit market speaks…
    …What is it saying? PHOOEY.

    I am not seeing any real improvement in credit. Spreads remain wide in all but are being pushed around by Benny and the Feds.

    And liquidity remains lackluster, and close to non-existent.

    I had a few million AXP bonds to sell. Rotsa ruck. Others I speak to are having the same problem.

    So stocks can rally, but unless the Fed and Treasury back-stop the entire credit market (they can’t, it is to large), risks remain high.

    More in an article later.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  106. Jakegint

    amen to that. you know Jake, to this day, i like to run things by my dad. he is 82. some things not all.

    A valuable luxury. Don’t take it for granted.

    ___

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  107. Fly Jr

    Pop – don’t worry, I’ll pick up dinner tonight.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  108. ZenProfit

    shhhhhh, don’t tell anyone: XLF

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  109. Tim the Enemy

    I believe the world is getting set up to have their rug yanked out from under their feet, but not until we’re around 1150 on the S&P. It’s going to be awesome. I can hardly wait.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  110. Aris

    here’s how i played this rally:

    fri (mid afternoon): took a position in FAS, because every cell in my body said ‘NOOOOOooooooo’

    mon (@ open): sold 2/3 of position for a nice gain, because every cell in my body said ‘NOOOOOooooooo’

    mon (now): pissed off, left $$ on the table

    the end.

    i love this market.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  111. Market Yoda

    Bears not afraid?

    Mmmmmm, you will be, you will be.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  112. shortcover

    egregious Santa Claws rally is now in full effect…9700 by year end anyone? then…6800 by spring…

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  113. 4fl3x

    With the Chicago Tribune filing for bankruptcy, I think the Cubs should apply for some tarp money.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  114. Fly Jr

    Everyone’s bearish.

    Further confirms this market has legs. Short the PPT

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  115. Fly Jr

    Maria Bartaroma gains 3 lbs a day

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  116. anjing bau

    Jake if I am standing on my head the SPX has a 6 handle….

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  117. ok, now what?

    One picture is worth a thousand words. Puts this year’s market in perspective.

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/12/2/102214/940/743/668445

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  118. Fly Jr

    GROWING CONIFENDECE MARKET REACHES BOTTOM

    The rally that followed Friday’s release of a stunningly weak non-farm payrolls reading has been extended in Monday’s trading, reflecting investors enthusiasm for President-elect Obama’s infrastructure investment initiative. Like similar recoveries that followed apparent market bottoms in July, then again in September as well as October, the market’s recent performance has seen stocks rally impressively off what seemed to be the floor, only to make some investors regret getting too optimistic about the prospects for a recovery. The market seemed to put a solid foundation in place with the bottom reached Nov. 20, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 declined as low as 747 intraday. That was followed by a 19% improvement in the succeeding five sessions of trading, which lifted the index to 896 points.

    While that move gave the bulls some reason to hope that the bottom had been effected, the subsequent action proved a lot more sobering – the index lost nearly 10% in a single trading session – and gave investors another lesson in the hearsh realities of the traditional bear trap or sucker’s rally. Last week’s announcement by a board of economists that the U.S. had, in fact, fallen into recession a year ago, gave the market the conviction that the fundamentals have proved to be as dismal as the market action, a factor only borne out by the payrolls reading that showed the U.S. economy relinquished 533,000 jobs in November.

    But from Friday’s intraday lows to Monday’s session highs, the S&P 500 has tacked on a whopping 11%. While there’s no guarantee that the market is going to hold onto its improvement through the close of the session – predicting the final-hour action has become a bigger sucker’s game than the homliest of bear-market rallies – there’s a growing conviction that the market may have established the lows for the cycle. What’s more, some analysts believe that the data – no matter how unseemly – is a reflection of the economic downturn’s last gasp.

    It’s time for investors to ”get out of the bunker mentality,” Lazlo Birinyi, head of the respected research shop, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Monday. Birinyi said that he believed the market established its bottom two weeks ago, and that – while he wouldn’t get too aggressive about buying stocks right now, given expectations that the economic tumult is going to continue – investors can start to nibble on equities from this juncture.

    Keith Lerner, strategist at SunTrust Robinson Humphreys, said he wouldn’t be surprised to continue to see economic readings like Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report – but that shouldn’t put off the bulls. Historically, the data continued to reflect weakened economic conditions even after the market itself bottomed out, because the market uses its discounting function to anticipate a recovery. Back in 1974 – the last time the economy lost as many as half-a-million jobs in a single month – the S&P bottomed out in October, but the dismal payrolls data continued, with the worst of the readings showing up in December. In fact, the economy didn’t show payrolls growth until May 1975.

    ”The character / tone of the market did seem to improve” after Nov. 20, Lerner said in a report Monday, noting there’d been ”more of a balance between bulls and bears instead of the one-sided fight dominated by sellers” that we’d been accustomed to for much of November.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  119. the Bull

    Nothing like completely missing this move, FUCK ME!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  120. Aris

    “Maria Bartaroma gains 3 lbs a day”

    hahaha

    i too think this santa rally has some legs, just based on confusion and stop-losses on the short side.

    i won’t be long after the last week of this month, however. a jan flush has too high of a probability.

    a marcia flush is less probable, but if greg starts screwing around with joe namath again, i may have to reevaluate.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  121. Fly Jr. misspells 300 words per day.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  122. Fly Jr

    anonymous sucks 300 cocks a week.

    He’s long chapstick.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  123. Pete

    Is it plausible that “Fly Jr” is just DEVILDOG participating in this blog on up days?

    They are equally annoying.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  124. Fly Jr. is senial (sic).

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  125. Karl Marx

    DD has balls, but Fly Jr has a taint ravaged from hours of self-mutilation stemming from chronic gender dysphoria.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  126. Fly Jr

    Wow. All you shorts get pretty nasty when you’re getting your heads handed to you.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  127. ALLPROz

    HD not behaving well on such a glorious day…hmmmm…can’t rise on this tape?..possibly gone too far too fast last few weeks as it has held better than most of late…

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  128. ZenProfit

    Adami was praising HD this a.m. on optionmonster.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  129. newbie here

    thinking of picking up some DUG into the close… crazy or no?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  130. Employee8

    bot a few lots of DAN for an auto bailout lottery ticket ….

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  131. ALLPROz

    Loaded up on HD a few weeks ago…will trim 75% and let the rest pull back…and if not…bonus!

    XLB builder index gapped up today should come down and offer another entry before proceeding to Obamanomic Bulltard rally…

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  132. ALLPROz

    Loaded up on HD a few weeks ago…will trim 75% and let the rest pull back…and if not…bonus!

    XLB builder index gapped up today should come down and offer another entry before proceeding to Obamanomic Bulltard rally…

    Adami most likely unloading some shares today as he sits there praising them…knucklehead…

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  133. Malaka

    Redeemed himself with 600 shares of GS today to take back some of my losses from last week sold out before the close at 77.50 a share…

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  134. Lady Guenevere

    Mr. Fly Dont give up your writing job 🙂

    Your disgruntled manic moods are good reading.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  135. 4fl3x

    SPX up around 6 points today, rest was all premarket futures manipulation. Lots of buyers out there…

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  136. Damon

    They tried to rally the close, but I could smell blood (could you?)

    Watch this auto-bailout FAIL and futures SINK.

    I sold my long pos in MOS and shorted it near the close.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  137. Fly Jr

    no way in hell the bailout in some form fails. no way.

    My pop hates blogging when he’s losing egregious amounts of money. So he wants me to proxy blog.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  138. El Scorcho

    Who was it that called $80 SRS the other day? (when SRS was still $120+)

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  139. Fly Jr

    why do all bears look like Mr. Dithers?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  140. Sir Douchebag

    Glad to see Chart Addict is holed up in a cave.

    Whatever happened to that 26% one day gain??????

    LOL. I knew we wouldn’t hear dick after last Friday…

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  141. Rodney Dangerfield
    Rodney Dangerfield

    Hey Fly Jr. we’re sorry your IQ is playing handball against the curb.

    My wife’s stinky toenails are smarter than you and not as insidious.

    Thanks for STFUing in advance:)

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  142. Fly Jr

    My IQ is genetic. You just insulted Sr.

    He lost around 7% today so I must defend his honor.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  143. The Chart Addict

    LOL!

    I made +2% today, +9% last week. Up +272% for the year.

    Suck that bitch.

    P.S. I did post Saturday, fuckface.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  144. ALLPROz

    Chart Addict,

    I love your charts, they are a time saver as I trade technicals with a dash of sentiment reading thrown in for seasoning…keep up the good work and needless to say, ignore the hate mongers…

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  145. Damon

    I meant short term fail on the bailout…enough to cause uncertainty!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  146. Jimmy Chin

    Chart Addict…I like your posts too…keep em coming. Thanks.

    Jimmy

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  147. The Chart Addict

    I’ll do this all day long. Keeps me entertained.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  148. Olmax

    Awesome Fly, Just God Damn Awesome.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  149. pn

    Heads up for T-pup, Karen Tso shirt is about to pop a button.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  150. PCX hat hot

    I do agree with all the concepts you have introduced in your post. They’re really convincing and can definitely work. Nonetheless, the posts are very brief for newbies. May you please lengthen them a bit from next time? Thank you for the post.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"