I do not believe in system trading or technical based trading. I have a strong belief that human instincts are an invaluable tool, when making quick decisions. However, I also believe that in order to get good ideas, one must have great contacts and/or a mechanical system that will present ideas.
Hence, I created The PPT.
My opinion of the market is to fade the rally. For the love of celestial bodies, states are running out of money and corporations are giving people the ax, on a daily basis. While it’s true, the market usually rallies, 6 months prior to an uptick in the economy; I want to float the idea out there that “this time is different.”
Nonetheless, since the current trend is up, I ran some interesting screens worth perusing.
PPT Overall Scores: (3162 total)
Average Technical Score: 2.164 Sell
Average Fundamental Score: 3.596 Buy
Average Hybrid Score: 2.771 Sell
————————————————————
NOTE: All of the “Top Ranked” Screens below define Hybrid Scores, which is a combination of technical and fundamental factors.
Top Ranked Mega-Caps (50 billion or more)
1 DCM 4.44 82022360000
2 MCD 4.26 66371148080
3 NTT 4.07 65711916666
4 FTE 3.76 68559655227
5 WMT 3.71 213929635436
6 VZ 3.64 94275673618
7 AZN 3.64 55637150000
8 NVS 3.59 107763900000
9 JNJ 3.53 159038243893
10 IBM 3.49 108376755731
Top Ranked Large-Caps (10-50 billion)
1 CBY 3.79 11155407266
2 PSA 3.77 11351456541
3 LOW 3.76 31240493415
4 WAG 3.76 23764530558
5 SO 3.67 28217962551
6 AFL 3.65 20322979106
7 APOL3.65 11944629620
8 LLY 3.64 39759258055
9 PKX 3.64 17020718089
10 BR 3.63 34546790733
Top Ranked Mid-Caps (5-10 billion)
1 NLY 3.8 7658835099
2 VFC 3.77 5767962278
3 GPS 3.72 9155944486
4 FFH 3.7 5084037219
5 PH 3.7 5999716175
6 PBCT3.68 6479118839
7 CEPH3.66 5131366857
8 FRX 3.65 7130657709
9 SHW 3.65 6686811503
10 TSP 3.65 6572655364
Top Ranked Small Caps (1-5 billion)
1 ORH 4.52 2685682419
2 BJ 4.23 2176082243
3 DLTR 4.17 3661358701
4 SF 4.08 1054817148
5 COGT4.05 1149060894
6 ORLY4 3571518717
7 THOR4 1438842982
8 AHL 3.86 1543918429
9 WMS 3.86 1308245223
10 GVA 3.85 1685826408
Top Ranked Micro-Caps (under 1 billion)
1 OCN 4.54 498596414
2 ACET4.44 223954709
3 SHEN4.44 584037576
4 APSG4.34 192485248
5 SUR 4.3 631962470
6 JOSB 4.26 390782133
7 INT 4.18 877740000
8 EPIQ 4.15 575120980
9 MNRO4.15 399705564
10 ALK 4.1 896532785
Potential Short Squeezes (stocks ranked “buy” or higher, with large short positions)
1 BKE 3.86 63.2
2 JOSB 4.26 38
3 AMED3.08 36.7
4 VLCM3.54 36.1
5 CMG 3.52 33.8
6 SUP 3.58 33.2
7 INWK3.04 32.6
8 ETH 3.08 32.1
9 PNRA3.71 31.9
10 RATE3.54 31.8
Stocks with the Biggest Hybrid Change Last Week (ranked a buy or higher)
1 BJ 87.17 4.23
2 NZ 81.46 3.72
3 PHHM77.01 3.08
4 PMTC66.48 3.03
5 SAFM65 3.3
6 FNF59.13 3.66
7 HBHC57.69 3.28
8 SDXC56.86 3.2
9 JAS 56.04 3.23
10 ASF 54.68 3.14
That should keep you pea-brained pigeon fuckers busy for a few hours.
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How ’bout them Cowboys !
.
Friday was just a lot of short covering. Fade the rally.
Cowboys wear chaps. Enough said.
As for the ppt, though I have no idea how it calcs the fundamentals, I find it bearish that the technicals overwhelm the fundamentals, because the latter should be shaky. What I mean is, we know most measures of fundamental business strength should be under severe pressure as the economy spirals downward.
That and I have a huge pile on the mid- to long term short side, so I’m wishing.
Why does anybody think this recession is 6 month away from finish anyway?
There are absolutely no signs whatsoever that we will see any uptick until at least late next year, probably more likely 2010. All the bad numbers are accelerating.
Two Thousand Stocks in my Head…..
This is time is no different to the times we were told it was different on the upside. There is nothing really wrong with states running out of money. In fact no one should be surprised they are. They hired like crazy and spent big amounts during the crisis and now the chickens are coming home to roost. They haven’t got rid of any tax eaters yet so of course they would be running out of money. Fire the tax eaters and they wouldn’t have as big a problem. Everything is mean reverting. Don’t be scared people as it’s only a recession.
Thanks for your work, Fly.
These same assholes calling for the end of the bear market are by and large the same assholes who said that there would be no bear market. How they keep getting on TV is beyond me.
Of course we will have a big rally at some point, we all know that, and we have to respect the odds. I’m still leaning bearish, planning so somewhat heavily for this week, but I’m ready to change sides quickly. It’s nice to have some bullish ideas floating around.
You can’t ignore Friday’s move. The job data was horrible, also way above expectations and the market was given all the chances in the world to crater and it didn’t. That’s important from any perspective.
Friday was short the rumor(shitty employment #’s), cover the news IMO. Nothing has changed. If this was real then where was the volume?
Bill Fleckenstein, a bear’s bear who has been predicting this meltdown since most of you were in high school, has announced that he’s closing his short-only fund.
Think on that, newbie bear cubs.
That’s the point isn’t it. The volume was very light, which may indicate that a lot of the forced selling may have become a trickle.
People use low volume on an up move to to indicate the bear is still around. They say the market indicator for higher prices is heavy volume. I think that’s wrong down here. Buy volume won’t pick up until we’re 10-15% higher. It’s the dearth of selling that’s really interesting to me. There’s only going to be light volume on the upside for a while. It’s the light volume on the sell side that ought to be concerning to the bears.
However anyone trying to figure this market out on a daily basis needs their head handed to them on a platter. The market should be traded only in two ways. Very short term.. no longer than a few hours or very long term. Everything else is meat grinder stuff.
HOW ABOUT THOSE COWBOYS???? GO STEELERS!!!!!
Is Romo retarded?
Damn, he is retarded!!
>While it’s true, the market usually rallies, 6 months >prior to an uptick in the economy; I want to float the >idea out there that “this time is different.”
This time is not different and the uptick in the economy is not coming in the next 6 months.
No kidding asshole. However, all of the bottom now talk is based upon that assumption.
The uptick in the economy will come when it does. What that comment doesn’t help us with is figuring out the policy mix in comparison to the different times. We are now approaching zero interest rates and the Fed has built up an unprecedented balance in the space of a few months. this hasn’t happened in the past in the way it has now, so the ballast on the other side is huge.
We don’t know if it is a month 6 or 12 before months before the market turns. But we we do know is that people are buying government bonds at close to zero and that inflation is coming. What happens when a herd of elephants chases protection into hard assets?
Fly…
Don’t you think that at the back of everyone’s mind is the thought that the economy for 09 is a wash out.. a complete write off. Don’t you think the real betting is on what happens from 2010 onwards.
Most people think that bank balance sheets of the money center banks etc. won’t repair for all of 09. That in itself is a good pointer of how they see things in terms of the rest of the economy.
Thanks for the list Fly.
The volume is light because all the toxic crap is hiding on the fed’s balance sheet or else behind shady accounting shenanigans. Anything could happen, but I happen to feel that the loss of confidence combined with remaining dleveraging which isn’t well hidden will cause a major market crash the day after after dubya skips town.
there wont be inflation …the money that vaporized in the past months is simply being reprinted …
your gold & silver is still worthless so pack it and ship it ..
The Sooners are Gator Bait.
fly,
An “essay-off,” huh?
I’d consider your challenge as long as you submitted urine to ensure you weren’t all hopped-up on Monster.
-DT
What money has vaporized, arch? Stop talking shit.
M1 has started to increase since the Great balance sheet build up. it’s increased!
The trouble is that people go to these dead ender sites where they’re talked into shit like that and they end up believing it.
No, money supply hasn’t fallen, money hasn’t vaporized and the increase hasn’t just replaced it.
That’s dead fucking wrong. You ought to be clipped over the ears for spouting crap like that.
No, money supply hasn’t fallen, money hasn’t vaporized and the increase hasn’t just replaced it.
That’s dead fucking wrong. You ought to be clipped over the ears for spouting crap like that.
any attempt to rationalize that comment and you will be deballed
Nice list of buy candidates. Thanks Senor Tropicana.
Btw, what makes me bullish here & now are the thousands of charts I have perused, besides the fact that we went up on 1/2 million jobs lost in one lousy month. The charts, they all have higher prices written all over them. Everyone knows the economy is fucked 8 ways to Tuesday, but so what. The charts are pointing north, for now. Hop on or get run, the fuck, over.
That said, who knows what happens mid week. Maybe we hit another elevator shaft. Or maybe the elevator goes to the penthouse.
As of this moment .. precious metals up .. oil up .. futes up. If oil starts going up, dragging oil companies for the ride, the indices will tack on a quick 10%. Get long DXO, UGA, DIG, ERX, OIH
and its time to buy TBT
Developing ……
The Sooners are Gator Bait.
Nevertheless, we will enjoy the opportunity to take our whipping from a vastly superior opponent!
Senor Fly, I checked your top 10 mega caps vs American Bulls and they are all buys there too – odd, no? FTE is a typo. I realize that you had to lay off Vincenzo, but running all these top 10s vs American Bulls and other stock ratings would be interesting. IBD says we are still in a confirmed rally.
Another Tip From Wall Street
“Leave your stock certificates in your mother’s attic.”
http://www.dagblog.com/humor-satire/another-tip-wall-street-300
FYI
Layoffs expected to decimate Wall Street ranks
Sunday December 7, 2:40 pm ET
By Stevenson Jacobs, AP Business Writer
Wall Street layoffs to dramatically reshape US financial industry, curb risky products
NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. financial services industry is witnessing the bursting of yet another bubble. This time, it’s the industry itself.
Bloated by years of frenzied growth, Wall Street banks and other firms are shedding tens of thousands of jobs and slashing entire divisions in their most drastic downsizing since the Great Depression. The moves promise to upend financial services and investment options for Americans from Wall Street to Main Street.
>No kidding asshole. However, all of the bottom now talk >is based upon that assumption
only flies are trading based on assumptions
>That said, who knows what happens mid week. Maybe we hit >another elevator shaft. Or maybe the elevator goes to the >penthouse.
It may go up or it may go down. It does not really matter as long as i can pretend that i am spewing smart thoughts out of my ass…
Okay. We just found out we have been in a
r=recession for a y=year
Given the stock market looks forward 6-9 months, lets be conservative and say 6 months, so:
r + y = 6
Now, we all agree that we are some h=historic l=lows here, or:
h+l=hl
So the market needs to have a sustained rally to keep Wall Street (and the economy) from completely disintegrating. So:
sr(e)-d=0
And since zero gets us nowhere, and Santa Claus is coming to town soon, or:
SC+T=IBankCoin
We rally, it’s long overdue, and nobody really cares (except the bears) beyond that!
The egregiously stupid Giants loss today (how many offensive coordinators do we have to fire before they recognize that Manning cannot throw the ball in Giant Stadium after Thanksgiving?) was ALMOST assuaged by the sweet comeback ass-kicking the Steelers administered to the most detestable Crackboys. Can to imagine what the Steelers will do to the Titans? It’s gonna be ugly.
______
Fly, nice list. Thanks for the early Christmas present.
Are we still having our Christmas party?
im changing my screen name to TexasHedge, if anyone cares. I just figured out this twitter shit, so im going with TexasHedge on both.
im trying to figure out a way to organize all the websites i visit on a daily basis. Any ideas, besides google reader? or bookmarks
seems like i find more and more info and blogs i want to keep track of on a daily basis, but it all seems so unorganized.
TH
If you own FXP prepare to have your fucking balls chopped off and shoved down your throat. Early Asia trading is deballing the bears.
Holy Cow Batman, Asia is really starting to melt up, I guess they think unemployment benies pay enough to buy big flat screens.
Oil will rally and XOM will swan dive simultaneously.
Okay — here’s a gift for all the retards for tomorrow:
Buy OIL
Buy companies that sell oil, make oil, or equipment to find oil.
Then buy more.
Loaded up on ERX on Friday at Fly’s son’s recommendation.
Chip off the old block, apparently.
________
Baltimore Ravens 2008 NFL Champions.
Quick trades for the morning:
long ERX, UYM, FCX
long TBT, BKE, JOSB
etc.
However, they may be sold at the end of the day or before. Do not forget how heart wrenching this market has been. Bulls have had their hopes shattered countless times this year. What would happen to sentiment if the market went up 300, then reversed and went down 300?
Remember what type of tape this is: rent ’em, don’t own ’em.
Good night.
This crowd is a glutton for punishment. I guess the 2x ETFs + wicked volatility weren’t good enough. ::rolls eyes::
Hang Seng is up 6% today, probably on the HSBC and the CCB news…
j is starting to make sense.
Odd, no?
sir douche, there’s a co. that makes oil?! holy flaming kuala bear shit!! should i short oil now that its a renewable resource?
Has The Fly capitulated to the upside?
long ERX, UYM, FCX
long TBT, BKE, JOSB
Throw AFSM in there, for shits and giggles.
I found that one two weeks back noodling around in your machine. Looks like the machine found it again (hybrids list).
__________
Fly What about your fav… nov…. not yet? why? thanks.
WOW. HSI is up 8.7% and rising. There is going to be a MAJOR upside move tomorrow. We could see DOW + 1000. Shorts prepare to lose all of your gains from this fall.
FXP will be down in the 30’s tomorrow, count on it.
Top pick: Short FXP until liquidation and long DXO
Well every time HSI is down 8%, FXP seems to only be up 3% in the morning.
I currently don’t have a pos in FXP, but I bet it’s barely going to be down.
Vix Double Top.
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2008/12/double-tops-in-vix.html
suck my balls
FREEDOM!
An OEW reminder ….
“Primary wave B should provide a powerful rally, and then Primary wave C should unfold in another series of abc’s into the final bear market low. Typically the C wave of any bear market is more devastating than the A wave. Please keep this in mind during the Primary wave B phase of the bear market. B wave rallies during bear markets are often mistaken for new bull markets. This mistake often lures investors into buying into the rally rather than selling. Remember we’re only about halfway through the recession.”
You have been notified … so don’t turn around and get all giddy when we see 1150 spx and proclaim a new bull market … last chance to sell your losers and get short for the mother of all elevator shafts down to the real bottom … january will be a sucker rally … sell the inaugeration and/or infrastructure spending bill … jmo
Dow futes currently up 168, spx up 20 to 893 (896 confirms chg in trend and WaveB) … just saying
watch FXP tomorrow
Nat gas cant rally to save its life!!!!
Whats up with that.
I’ve posted this before but not in some time. This should be printed out, framed and placed in ones place of business, for an inspirational reminder of why one is in this business.
Money Maxims, by an Indian born philosopher/teacher/whatever he was.
Get ready for SPX 1000 … then prepare for a nastola drop of 10-15%, where the DevilsDog reappears in full splendiferous regalia, heralding the coming necessity of hoarding firearms, beans, rice & water in ones underground bunker, replete with communications command & control center and meditation pyramid, constructed of copper (of course) according to extraterrestrial standards & specifications.
Shit this looks easy….just load up on ERX DXO UGA TBT.
Wasn’t $100 oil a bubble?…..Fly don’t forget rule #1 Oil is for Asshats.
On more of a Main St. view… Real Estate is tanking….Jobs are tanking…. Autos are tanking…..25% of Real Estate is underwater. All people with money are hunkered the fuck down after taking forearm shiv to the nose. People that need dough aint gonna get it. Next
TexasHedge all I can say is wtf.
As the Dog keeps reminding us, it’s nature’s way, Juice.
Juice, you will not be able to prepare for the drop. It will happen when least expected.
Fly-
You may not believe in tech trading systems but the most the best performing hedgies use tech trading systems. Most are black box systems that are impossible to learn, but they continue to beat the pants off of most hedge funds.
With regard to the market. I still feel that there are more redemptions to come. This rally is giving them even a better opportunity to start selling. Of course the million dollar questions is when will it happen.
Until it happens I will spend my time adjusting and repairing my positions . This rally is slapping me around right now, but I am about to come back with a strong upper cut to the chin to mother market
E8, I’m listening, IYO what point would Wave B have to roll past to be considered as the real deal and not just a setup for more carnage?
PPT is broken.
ERX will moonshot – just like I predicted.
Fleck closing out his short fund?
Oil oversold for bounce…ERX does look good here…
Ol’ Jack B
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/fleckenstein-shutting-down-short-hedge.html
If we open above 896 spx it is the real deal but we’ve already done minor wave a and b within this major wave B so the first pivots to focus on are 961 and 1061. The spx could ultimately test 1105 and 1180 before WaveB ends per OEW.
Texas Hedge with Silver??
Do I see that shit up 85 cent under the Quickster’s blouse?
_______
thanks, much appreciated.
“There’s nothing bearish about higher prices”
“Do not short stock when sap is running up the tree”
“Wait for signs of reversal”
SPX 1k.
Use a stop.
Have an open mind.
DAG is another good 2x etf for commodities …
Thanks Juice – guess it’s old news but still interesting. I’ve always enjoyed Fleck’s dose of doom and gloom, although I lost a few bucks on his NSTK recommendation a while back.
Not impressed with the pre-market SMH and some of the chips. Gonna watch to see if it catches up at the open or will be an indicator of a NAZ fade.
Also TLT is up and TBT is down. Shouldn’t be that way if market skyrockets. The $$ should be leaving treasuries. Something smells.
FLy;
WTF. If you think human instinct is the key to the market [having a high IQ puts you low on the human instincts list]. Are you a contrarian to human instincts? Human instinct is the herd and 90% don’t make money. Your human instinct is much different than the average person. Do you mean the human instinct in high IQ people? They don’t have much instinct.
893…894….895…896…897… that should confirm WaveB!
Like to see UUP fall below 26 right Jake?
guess I gotta consider picking up some SKF here as a hedge
ERX is banking coin.
The PPT needs new parts
I called the CHK bounce on Friday.
anyone fading energy is an ass clown
LOLOLOLOLOL Aubrey fucked them. Biggest trap ever.
By the way look at DXO take off. Buy it.
Sold my longs at the open, fading this rally, and will consider going long around Wednesday/Thursday for this nonsense x-mas rally.
The regional banks (KRE etf) also smell funny.
Crazy.
I want to add to my shorts but I can’t get myself to do it here.
I want to sell my longs but I need the hedge.
Hah, The Market wins.
CHK up over 40% since I bought it Friday. I’ll take that anyday
Break away gap on declining volume won’t last! Waiting for weakness to short the shit out of.
Tony-
My thought exactly. This rally has not had any volume behind it. The big volume comes on down days.
Tough to buy up here … only very select buying .. we may need to test SPX 850 mid-week.
Instead of getting a trim at the barber, mother market has given you a bowl haircut. You must now walk around society questioning everything. Good Luck.
Get long some GDP around $29.
fxp WAS made by the devil
Is Merlin going to make a cameo today?
Fly Sr’s DUG is burying him.
Hope he’s out shopping for new batteries for the PPT
LMAO at meredith whitney
LMAO at everyone who says XOM goes to $40
BWAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Come on out, DevilDog
I said I expect the market will go lower..but late next year I expect to be able to buy stocks, and between now and then there will a time to short stuff and buy things perhaps…I’m just getting ready for the next idea…all short was my last idea…and I don’t want to do that anymore….though I expect lower prices after a decent rally at some point…I’m not saying I’ll never short or that I’m itching to go long…but I do need to clear my head from always being short..
No, I do not think the worst is over….but I think there will be a big rally – then at least one more huge leg down….by that time there should be some great opportunities and I want to be ready to start to capture them…and in the interim, there may be more chances to go both ways….hence my decision…I’m not bullish yet at all …just unwilling to be short essentially exclusively anymore…
—–
Hi Bill,
As you wind down your fund, will you still be looking to take advantage of future shorting opportunities in the fund. Or are you basically going to call it a day now while you’re presumably on top, so to speak.
• I will still try to make money, in the lowest risk way I can, I expect to be short to some degree, again, after the next rally..but I’m not sure I’ll get long for this rally – right now it seems too dangerous to me.
There goes TBT. Whew. I was getting a tad concerned!
I am not going to lie I have purchased a dump truck load of GS. Feeling a bit like big mommas house and up over a buck a share today. I also purchased some QQQQ thinking it should do real well before the 3pm mark.
Any thoughts ?
LMFAO at the energy shorts.
Talk about late to the party
Meredith Whitney has ropes around the posts of her bed. The breakaway table and 2×4’s are in the closet next to the aluminum ladder and championship belt.
Told you so.
I told you the fly would phone it in sick on Monday.
Loser.
Witness the DRYS
DVN to 72 ….
What do you say to Tim, Fly. Come out and defend yourself. New thread please
Fly Jr.-
Damn dude. You are pretty impressed with yourself, no? I am not long or short energy so I couldn’t care less what it does, but your constant chest thumping leaves me to believe that you aren’t right very often.
“roll over.”
I have to make up all the money my dad has been losing.
Almost everyone that is interviewed on CNBC calling this the bottom,makes me even more cautious and bearish. The so called experts are way to giddy with this rally.
Goldie…if “SKF is an ATM machine under 120″…you better call the fucking repairman…it just ate my ATM card along with a pile of my cash. Thanks for the tip.
I’m with you Moe.
Homies are done.
Short at will.
this is a schizophrenic market…
no it’s not,
yes it is!
Once the Autos get this 15 billion it will only open the door for more $$ down the raod. They will burn through that cash faster than a redhead whore with a pile of blow. More money for bailouts to come. Lower dollar in the future?
T MOE- It’s a joke on the taxpayers. They haven’t gotten it right in the last twenty years+ so how are they going to find religon in three months?
Like to see UUP fall below 26 right Jake?
Sorry, in meetings all morning while the joyousness was taking place.
To answere your question, yes, and I’m really looking at a drop below $25.90 to signal the offical “witch is dead” for the fiat dollar death knell for this cycle.
_________
hey ,sniff, sniff, anybody know where I can get some blow???
My dad is getting ass raped today. Maybe he should rename his PPT system to PPH?
People Pushing Hemmorhoids?
I have been looking all over the house for dad. I heard a wimpering noise coming from his office – maybe I’ll check under his desk.
Ha Ha! Govt. thinking about using its power to force the sale of mortgage bonds and modify the loans. And we are not falling into socialism? ha! what a joke
Jr – maybe your ort to get your own pad and ski-daddle on outta here. you talk too much
Europe closes much higher. Easy tell that the DOW will close over 300 up
Fly Jr,
Suggest you change your name to gnat and embrace the buzzing blue light.
Fuck off!
Wait til the Gov comes up with the idea of buying up all the real estate and creating jobs by hiring people to maintain them.
wow. the ass raped Shorts on here are poor losers.
BWHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH
I can’t wait to see all those I bankers from wall street out on the street as a flag man for a road repair company. I’m sure they are going to take those great paying jobs that BO says will be created. Along with the white collar jobs from the mid west.
fly jr is contrarianass with no brain , fake . dow is near shitting out lil shit
Fly Jr,
you and devildog both go fuck an armadilo. Playing Monday morning quarterback is definitily profitable when you have no skin on the game.
Enough of your chess pounding.
Did The Fly go to Paris with Howard?
Something fishy here?
Qs gotta hold here ~29.85. I buy small QID stop loss at hours lows.
Dow Chemical to slash 5,000 jobs, close 20 plants
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dow-Chemical-to-slash-5000-apf-13771397.html
Very bullish.
See Fridays time stamped posts.
I called the ERX, CHK and erergy rallies then.
Severe ownage of you shorts
Good morning El Scorcho. Just wake up?
Thanks for that update, though i imagine most people saw that news at least three hours ago.
Fly Jr, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
What have you done for us lately, Jr.? What is for tomorrow?