The GOP will not support the bailout. They will look even worse to their constituents if they support it on Thursday, after shooting it down on Monday. Instead of standing up for what they believe in, they will be viewed as folding to ‘fat cat’ pressure.
With this in mind, there is NO WAY I want to be net long, following Monday’s train wreck.
Instead, I want to be long large blocks of [[SRS]] and [[EEV]] , while waiting for an optimal entry point into [[SKF]] .
Should that fucker print $90, get long in a very egregious way.
As you can tell, I’ve lost confidence in the bull story. There was a shot to goose step this market higher. However, at this point, everything is very anti-climatic. Sell the rips, buy the dips.
NYC is set to lose another 40,000 jobs, thanks to the financial meltdown. As sure as I am sitting here, SRS will print $100 by Halloween.
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Although you are correct in your assessment of the GOP’s stance on this bailout – you are wrong about the outcome. The Dems are going to shove this thing up Paulson’s ass, and then let the GOP get a taste of defeat. It’ll be a bill chalked full of goodies for the Dems. And Bush will be forced to sign it into law. John McCain will look the phucking idiot he is, and Obama will be red carpeted into the White House. The ultimate losers from this silliness … the crybabies in the GOP who shot the damn thing down in the first place, instead of hanging in there and working the bill to their advantage. PHUCK the GOP. They are phucking cry babies in diapers.
Possible switch voters on the bailout:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/14139.html
I guess this means it’s time to get 100% long.
OK, Here is the deal.
I’ve concluded it would be more productive to rub a cheese grater across my face then listen to that stupid Sue Herera.
She’s stupider than Barney Frank.
Thanks for listening. :tonofbricks:
GE confirmed earnings it seems. Hence the ramp in the market. It looks like GE was halted for a few minutes.
You really don’t think they can come up with the 12 votes needed to pass it? I bet they do.
Good thing I didn’t give PharmPhucker kudos for his last post save on (on the post before this one).
I laughed because I actually thought he was being ironic.
__________
PS — Dipshit — learn something about politics. If you think the Dopey Dems are going to sign this bill with no GOP support, you have been smoking your own back 40 hemp for way too long.
But I bet that’s some sticky icky shit.
_________
SGP looking like a good short here.
I’ve concluded it would be more productive to rub a cheese grater across my face then listen to that stupid Sue Herera.
“Stupid and beastly” is a bad combo for a tv news personality.
Lack of brains coming in a distant third, of course (especially for CN BS)…
Where have ye gone, Liz Clayman’s “girls?”
___
I was just going to recommend buying some of these beaten down REIT preferreds… what think ye, Gunners?
________
Why didn’t you take my call earlier?
By the way you forgot to wear those cute panties I gave you to wear this morning.
Fly is wrong. Please call the Maytag time machine repairman.
GOP will support the bailout.
Stay out of the House Members Only restroom after the vote, though, as there will be much puking.
Pharmfucker-Read some Politics 101 before you spew your ignorant shit you political moron.
These CNBC people are pretty smug when they talk about their GE stock.
Somebody needs to tell them the stock is still down after the Buffet news.
ge just gave buffett it’s left nut:
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) is buying $3B in GE preferred shares with a dividend of 10% and callable after three years at a 10% premium. He also getes warrants to buy $3B in stock at $22.25/share.
Heh. Buffett shows all the financial wizards the right way to reach for yield.
Let me ask you something JakeGint. If both McCain AND Obama are for this bill, and McCain’s party votes it down … who comes out smelling better than your momma’s cunt? Learn a lesson in politics son, corner McCain, then make his party look to turn their back on both him and our country … checkmate Obama.
You’re the only dipshit here Jake … politics is a game of chess. And McCain’s puny pawns are about to have their asses stomped by the Democratic party.
Hmmmm….
That doesn’t sound the like the deal a Triple-A company would be acceding to….
I mean, unless we are talking “Triple-A Towing, Weehawken, NJ.”
_____
I’ve given up trying to game this vote. But since last Friday, a lot of ideas have been offered that might take the onus off of a completely tax payer funded plan. So it’s possible that both sides can declare victory.
If they don’t do something, or appear to try, these wankers will be facing reelection with a cratering economy and a rep for putting partisan politics over the national good. And then we’re looking at four years of blame politics while Russia and China look like the adults in the room and offer their beneficent dictatorship to the world.
Long bullets, caffeine and various flavors of alcohol.
The GOP is going to support this bill. That is all but assured. It would be fucking suicide to shoot it down again.
Aside: When one has small children, one gets very “well read” in “the Doctor.”
As in “Suess.”
Theodore Geisel.
One thing I’ve noticed as I’ve pored over the oeuvre
(have you read “Green Eggs and Ham” over a thousand times? I have. No shit. And “The Lorax?” Fuggedaboudit. The boys, especially, love that fucking Onceler)
is that Suess mentions a Jersey town in at least two of his books (aforsaid Lorax and “Horton Hatches the Egg”).
That town is the same north Jersey coastal burg that Fly rumbles past on his “brain clearing” midnight drives:
Weehawken.
Odd, no?
__
I need a drink.
Cubs in 4 hrs and a Crash call from the one person I would trust calling one. jfk, October is going to be hell.
porsche car sales in the us dropped by 45% percent in september …
I cannot fucking believe I sold half my fucking Berkshire Hathaway this year.
That old man is kicking the youngsters down the stairs.
The GOP is going to support this bill. That is all but assured. It would be fucking suicide to shoot it down again.
_______
At 10 to 1 against in calls and e-mails, don’t bet on it.
I’m hoping my asshole votes for it, but then, he’s a Dem.
_______
Any word if Steve Gartman (I think that’s his name)(the Cubbies fan who interfered with the play a couple of years ago) is going to any of the games?
Pharmdouchebag —
You wouldn’t know chess from cheese pie. We’ll see if the Obester checkmates. It be nice to see him get in the game, first.
Know this though — the bill will not “work.” They will have to come back to the trough, hat in hand.
Whom do you think will take the heat for that?
Don’t even bother — I’m six steps ahead of you, sheep shagger.
_______
On a side note, the head of the Board of Chairmen at Hudsucker Industries has passed away. Oh, what will they do next?
At 10 to 1 against in calls and e-mails, don’t bet on it.
Jake, I can fucking promise you, it ain’t 10-1 anymore.
This deal is gonna pass overwhelmingly. Bank on it!
Sniper,
Promote that wide-eyed young fellow from the mailroom, I’d expect.
He’s invented this hoop thing you power with your hips…
You know, for the kids!
@CubsRock: How do you have any ‘real’ hope after all these years of fucktardery? I’m just waiting for the 2nd coming of Bartman!
6 months ago, the GOP (or anybody else) could have looked like heroes by killing this plan.
Today, the choice is to support a slightly modified Paulson plan or to come up with an alternative that can pass.
In Round 1, the House GOP did neither. If they repeat the performance in Round 2, a shitestorm will envelop them. Bad Things are happening in the economy, and the spin will be that the House GOP is holding its breath and pouting instead of doing something about all the Bad Things.
I say that in spite of the 10-1 constituent majority against the bailout and in spite of my own strong opposition to the Paulson plan.
OT:
Since I share a campus with the Geisel Library, my son’s preschool made regular pilgrimages to the Suess sculpture:
http://flickr.com/photos/mliu92/2623553678/
The shit is going to pass. you need to go crank one out and relieve your mind. Maybe only a short term pop, but we will get one.
Constituents are reportedly 50-50 on the deal now
Where is the PPT, C is only up 8% now, must be those evil shorts that knocked it down a buck
I have hope, but not as emotionally tied as I was in 2003. I was depressed for over a month in 2003 🙁
Ottnot:
Go fuck your toilet bowl.
I am not saying the bill will not pass. I am saying the GOP will NOT change their mind. If the Dems want to own it, they can pass it.
Just don’t count on it.
Burn me once….
Unloaded JRCC and HK day trades, + 5% gains each. Thinking small and trading quickly. Don’t wanna get beheaded!
stay away from Commercial RE longs. Commercial RE is going to lag this overall economic problem. just got out of a meeting with some leasing guys, looking at historical charts. back when thing went wrong in 1988, you didn’t see bad stats in Commercial RE until 1991. It takes a while for these people to vacate. then it takes a little while for service industries to vacate space, after the people they are servicing vacate.
Commercial RE is in the bottom of the first inning of this downturn. I’ve been hearing that people are calling that the overall economic downturn is in the 4th inning or so. well if that’s true, there is a lot more to come in CRE.
These leasing guys expect manhattan vacancy to rise to 13% and rental rates to decline 31.7%. (last two downturns had similar declines, 34% decline in rents after 9/11). that’s from TODAY’s stats. we aren’t 20% into the 31.7% decline. we haven’t even started yet. scary
ottknot-
abandon your 413 area code, and run away to P-Town with me!!!!
Its nice to see that Fly has his balls firmly back in hand(s?). I knew it was too early to write this blog off as third-tier.
Reid is not telling the truth. I have reviewed hundreds, if not thousands, of real property contracts. They contain mortgage contingency clauses so the buyer doesn’t lose his deposit if a good faith effort is made to obtain financing.
Idiot.
The Suess rocks. How many books can you read 1,000 times and still get back in the saddle for one more time?
Green Eggs and Ham. Know it by heart. Give me a page number. Go ahead.
Fox? Box? Train in the rain? In the fucking dark?
Oh, no. Not in the dark.
I still have a 2 and a half year old. Shit.
_______
Fly still wrong.
And I’m not touching the toilet bowl until my son learns to flush the solids. We have instituted a policy of banking coin (25 cent fine) when he forgets.
Area code 413 is on the wrong side of the country.
I’m on the side where he and his money found their final resting place.
FLY
GET A FUCKING GRIP… YOUR GETTING MORE WHIPLASHED THAN CRAMER
relax
I hope that Jake doesn’t read any of that Rainbow Fish crap to his kids.
I always read The Little House On The Prairie (Laura Ingells) books to my daughter and she liked Charlie and the Glass Elevator.
My son on the other hand liked Golf Digest and Sports Illustrated for Kids. The kid took AP English, never read the books and got an A in the class and a 5 on the AP test. My daughter was always mad at him since she worked hard in school.
Ott,
Regardless the relative merits of your arguments, please consider how the construction, “Fly still wrong” might undermine the credibility of an Asian dude.
If I believed in those gay little smiley face emoticons, there would be one here.
go fuck yourself
Sometimes a Cigur is just a Cigur.
If I believed in those gay little smiley face emoticons, there would be another one here.
Donny sure likes the game DIG DUG……..
I gotta agree. I read a lot of right wing blogs and these idiots are digging in their heels. They think the bounce yesterday was proof there is no crisis. If you try and explain that there really is a crisis, they just don’t want to hear it. Very scary stuff.
FLY, I think your were right to go long, only the timing was not correct. You can be sure, if the bill fails again, the FED will cut the rates. Each scenario is positiv for the stock market. intraday trading is really difficult, especially for small traders
Jake,
Have you been to the Seuss Museum in Springfield Mass? We have not been there yet, but are planning on taking our 3 year old son soon.
been there, great place, but small. Hit the Basketball Hall of Fame while you’re there to round out your day.
Owww, I hit my head off of $23 again. That hurts!
Jake, zip up; your aliases are showing.
Obama will win this election because he’s promised to build concentration camps in Alaska for the orderly extermination of Republican Investment Bankers and FatCat CEOs.
I’m a politician, which means I’m a cheater and a liar, and when I’m not kissing babies I’m stealing their lollipops. [from: The Hunt for Red October (film)]
As a Costanza trade, I am going long POT here…Also FCX and CHK.
FLY….you are wrong. Bill passes.
Bennet Sedacca
02:10:00 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Warren and the G’s
OK. So let me explain this to everyone.
The Golden girls, Goldman Sachs (GS) and General Electric (GE) are in great shape right? So they should be able to finance themselves at like +100, +200, +300?
But nooo. They have to call deep pocketed Warren Buffett to buy preferred shares at 10%.
If, for a single instant, you find this to be positive, think again, my friend.
This officially closes the window on everyone else.
Who on earth will lend to everyone else.
Simple answer. No one.
—————
Bennet Sedacca
01:26:14 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Calling all lemmings!!
OK. So now we have the list of ‘The Chosen’.
You know, the guys that are going to survive amidst the ruins of what used to be our financial system. Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) (huh?), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan (JPM), US Bancorp (USB) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
The big question, of course, is what will they earn, what is on their books, and what would you pay for them? How does 20x sound for something you have no idea what they will earn and what the credit market has decided thumbs down on? Personally 5x-8x is more my cup of tea.
But so be it. I wasn’t asked to be in the party. In fact, I was thrown out on my arse when asked to short the ‘non Chosen’.
Without further ado, below is a chart of ‘the Chosen’, a cumulative non weighted group of the ones that have been chosen to take over the world. Yeesh.
http://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/Theale/sg2008100147203.gif
If Congress has a clue, they’d realize the deal Buffett is doing with AAA rated GE is more dilutive/costly than deals money losing development stage bullshit biotech “concept” companies were doing 18 months ago. MVIS has probably raised capital on less dilutive terms. These terms scare the shit out of me, rather than inspire confidence.
Sardines anyone?
MOS heading up before earnings AMC. Bought some on the dip this morning. Commodities are set up for a bounce along with the FED emergency rate cut of a half point.
Via TH
Torch-bearers and wielders of pitchforks beware: battle-hardened troops coming home to deal with your passive-aggressive unrest:
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/09/army_homeland_090708w/
Be careful when you get all proletarian out there.
Some commodities will more than bounce with a half point cut, unless the whole world steps down together.
House Republicans have little incentive to cooperate.
They are making an observation and an assumption.
Observation: Their constituents hate the bailout plan.
Assumption: John McCain is going to lose.
Thus, House Republicans see themselves alone next year, facing Pres. Obama and a Democratic Congress.
Their calculation? They will get no benefit, and possibly good rewards, for opposing the bailout.
If the bailout passes (over their objections) and it works (stabilizes the markets), they will get no credit for this outcome. They would also get no credit or benefit if they supported it.
If the bailout passes (over their opposition) and it fails, House Republicans can say, “We told you so.”
If they block the bailout and the markets stabilize anyway, they will look like principled geniuses.
And if they block the bailout and the markets and economy slump further, Pres. Obama and the Democrats will not be able to add programs or raise taxes. Also, Republicans might be able to pick up seats in 2010 due to a poor economy.
One may not like these political calculations. But they are rational.
Fly,
You probably stopped reading this thread long ago, but are you still holding any SNV?
C to raise a hundred billion gazillion dollars after close. The stock will fall to 2 cents per share on the dilution.
“The best result we can hope for is that the economic necessity of getting our fiscal house in order will, at last, force us to give up our world empire. Without the empire we can then concentrate on rebuilding the Republic.”
And I DON’T watch cnbc.
Anonymous@3:40 nailed it.
The theory that House Reps would blow chunks now in order to return in 2010 (and more greatly in 2012) as great saviors began last spring.
Two years from now, after things have been really bad, they will successfully blame everything on Obama and sail back into the House…
In theory.
OK. So now we have the list of ‘The Chosen’.
You know, the guys that are going to survive amidst the ruins of what used to be our financial system. Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) (huh?), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan (JPM), US Bancorp (USB) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
To my great frustration, that is basically a list of the SKF components (if GreenWriter had it right in a posting some time back).
A few of the gems in the Porky the Pig bill-
Huge Senate PorkBarrel in Bailout Bill now (451 pages)
New Tax earmarks in Bailout bill –
Film and Television Productions (Sec. 502) –
Wooden Arrows designed for use by children (Sec. 503) –
Earmarks for litigants in 1989 Exxon Valdez incident, Alaska (Sec. 504)
Tax earmark “extenders” in the bailout bill. –
Virgin Island and Puerto Rican Rum (Section 308) –
American Samoa (Sec. 309) –
Mine Rescue Teams (Sec. 310) –
Mine Safety Equipment (Sec. 311) –
Domestic Production Activities in Puerto Rico (Sec. 312) –
Indian Tribes (Sec. 314, 315) –
Railroads (Sec. 316) –
Auto Racing Tracks (317) –
District of Columbia (Sec. 322) –
Wool Research (Sec. 325)
Believe me, this is the tip of the iceberg. Vote them ALL out.
Donny sells DIG for 60.40.
…A tiny, goat-bartering Republic existing on the outskirts of a bloated Chinese-Russian border where the Amish represent the new cutting edge of American technology and Humongous rules the Midwest with his ethanol-raiding marauders.
I still own SSO, and of course my position is positive 2.3%.
The Senate will pass the bill tonight, and the House will pass it tomorrow or Friday.
DIG — DUG
Have you been to the Seuss Museum in Springfield Mass? We have not been there yet, but are planning on taking our 3 year old son soon.
I have not, but I have been to the Basketball Hall of Fame there.
As an aside, a big lug from Springfield College (one of the biggest producers of PE teachers and coaches in the country, no shit) messed up my knee so bad in a college wrestling match there that I still get “the pains when it rains” to this day. Fucker.
I have a reunion coming up next year and will be not far outside of Springfield, so I appreciate the heads up.
_________
Jake, zip up; your aliases are showing.
No bid, Bud. No aliases on this thread. Seriously, I’d tell you… I’m no “anonymizer.”
One tip — all of my “people” now have links in their names. If there’s no link, it’s not me.
________________
Understood. Sounded a bit like you.
My meeeestake…
Ha ha, Jake, I set you up, but by accident.
Everyone leave JG alone. This really is me, Barney Frank the Fucking Gay Politician.
Yogi & Boo Boo,
Next year come earlier and check out the Cheese and Goats along with the Green Cheese Museum and the NBA Hall.
Aside: Haha Jake, I knew you were some psycho right wing fiscal conservative and I wanted to leave a lasting memory. Let it rain 40 days and 40 nights!