I’ve canceled my plans to vacation in the middle of nowhere, in order to witness the great fuck up of 2008. It’s coming. I can sense it.
Hey, anyone else notice how done our auto industry is? I’d buy Ford Motor Company [[F]] and General Motors Corporation [[GM]] , only if I was playing with counterfeit bills.
Gold is just plain weird. It’s hard to trust the price, when the U.S. government owns more than 8,000 tonnes [sic]. Nonetheless, I have it plugged into my asset allocation models at 4%.
Over the last few days, I took losses in Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] , Walter Industries, Inc. [[WLT]] and a variety of commodity fuck ups. As you know, I took gains in banks and now look forward to the next chapter of my investment life.
I’m a big believer in the end of the world, at least temporarily. So, there really is no need to be long commercial RE. Hell, the way I figure, Vornado Realty Trust [[VNO]] is about to get ape raped, amidst the elimination of NYC’s financial industry.
I guess some longs makes sense here too, ahead of the bailout. But, the smartest way to play the trickery is to be hedged. Never let the same event fuck you twice, is what “Grandpa Fly” used to say. God bless his soul and his fire arms.
In closing, you’re all assholes. I know that was entirely uncalled for; but I could careless. “The Fly” has lots of things to do, ahead of tomorrow’s funfouse of financial fuckery, so buzz off.
Hey, one last thing: is anyone else scratching their heads over that ridiculous capital raise, via Buffett, by General Electric Company [[GE]]? That smells very fishy.
Okay, time to go. I’ll be selling the rest of my longs tomorrow.
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Markets closed…let the fun begin! I’m pumped!
“funfouse of financial fuckery”
classic! nice alliteration. hahahahah
funny stuff 🙂
Short away when the VIX, VXO, QQV hit their 10 sma
which would be about 36, 40, 37
I’m still in some commodity plays such as SCHN and CLF but i must admit they are starting to make me sweat. I guess i will just hold them until ultimate support (zero) at this point. Fuck you Uncle Sam.
anecdotal evidence, but today i saw the first ‘auction’ banners on condo buildings in downtown seattle.
i think it’s the first of several in the future. there’s an obscene number of vacant condo-skrapers here, and there are dozens still being built.
I erased Big Mike from the name above – odd, no? There can only be ONE end of world so forgetaboutit. Inflation and oil will fall – stocks will bottom – Warren Buffett will own the USA.
Paulson: Bring out the Gimp.
Bernanke: Gimp’s sleeping.
Paulson: Well, I guess you’re gonna have to go wake him up now, won’t you?
Mr Fly, snap the fuck out of it and put your rally cap on backwards! We’re going up thanks to government cheese before the next big drop!
Here are some of the special-interest provisions that are now part of the Wall Street bailout legislation. The bill started at 3 pages, grew to 106 pages, and is now 451 pages.
Film and Television Productions (Sec. 502)
Wooden Arrows designed for use by children (Sec. 503)
6 page package of earmarks for litigants in the 1989 Exxon Valdez incident, Alaska (Sec. 504)
Virgin Island and Puerto Rican Rum (Section 308)
American Samoa (Sec. 309)
Mine Rescue Teams (Sec. 310)
Mine Safety Equipment (Sec. 311)
Domestic Production Activities in Puerto Rico (Sec. 312)
Indian Tribes (Sec. 314, 315)
Railroads (Sec. 316)
Auto Racing Tracks (317)
District of Columbia (Sec. 322)
Wool Research (Sec. 325)
Is the auto industry poised for a rebound in light of the 25B loan and declining fuel costs?
“In closing, you’re all assholes.”
Same thing I said at my grad speech.
Danny,
I bet you made yo Mama proud that day….not a dry eye in the house…..
Fly, by “selling longs”, does that mean you are selling your “long SRS”? which is actually reducing a short, thus effectively going long?
(im hoping to hear either an answer or an insult, preferably both)
Danny,
Did you graduate top of your class?
no way kidstock — there is a major consumer disconnect.
Chevy? Like a rock? (slogans
Ford? Drive one. Yeah, sure
The cars suck and blow at the same time, something physicists thought impossible until only recently.
They should have used the fat margins from trucks and suvs to plan for this, they didn’t they deserve to fail. If that impacts jobs and the economy, well, that’s what happens when you fuck up a major industry.
no KS, I didn’t, it was a totally fabricated memory
unfortunately. Cuz I was laughing thinking about it
>>Hey, one last thing: is anyone else scratching their heads over that ridiculous capital raise, via Buffett, by General Electric Company (GE: 24.50 -3.92%)? That smells very fishy.<<
“G.E.’s concessions to Mr. Buffett are steep. The perpetual preferred stock carries a dividend of 10 percent, and can be repurchased after three years, at a 10 percent premium. Berkshire Hathaway will also receive warrants to buy $3 billion of common stock at $22.25 within the next five years.”
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/01/buffett-to-invest-3-billion-in-ge/index.html?hp
I was predicting their demise when gas started tickling over $2/gal and they did not skew production towards more efficient vehicles.
That Buffet, GE deal smells like the ratings agencies were a ball hair away from knocking down the AAA rating. GE will do, and did, anything they can to keep the rating. 10% on $3 billion is a small amount compared to the slightest increase on the rest of the trillions that they borrow! Its good to be King Buffet!!!
anecdotal evidence, but today i saw the first ‘auction’ banners on condo buildings in downtown seattle.
How much for Frazier’s pad? I always liked his views.
_______
Does anybody know what “wooden arrows designed for use for children” could possibly be in the Porky Pig bailout bill?
Does it have some thing to do with Dracula in Romania?
Lived some of my formative years in Seattle. What an awesome city. Frasier’s apartment, as expected, was fictional. Although there are some sweet pads around Belltown.
______________
btw, MU sucks at earnings. Stock is holding up, for now. Nonsense. Obviously, they’re worth 0.
MOS reports in a little bit.
Charlie Rose is supposed to interview Buffett tonight.
I’m sure he’ll talk about what wonderful world class companies GS and GE are provided Congress doesn’t stick the sausage to us.
The Ford Edge is all over the road. It’s not the cars that’s the problem, it’s the legacy costs.
__
Lived some of my formative years in Seattle. What an awesome city. Frasier’s apartment, as expected, was fictional.
Oh.
Damn.
___
Run
While we’re waiting it out, have fun with this:
oops…
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3213/2905661608_8b21252078_o.jpg
@JG: Of course, you can just do what they did and put a giant painting of downtown Seattle on the outside of your windows, facing in. And there you have it!
And don’t forget to wear some socks with your sandals!
Buffett is a straight up gangsta pimp. Notice he doesn’t give the dudes from CNBC any time. Just the ladies. Number One Ho: Becky Quick. Until she screws up and quits earning for him.
Danny,
agree:
Chevy? Like a rock (swimming, at the deep end)
Ford? Drive one . Yeah, sure
funny
The cars suck and blow at the same time, something physicists thought impossible until only recently.
I think we will start to see many (bad) things thought impossible.
I think Warren has a thing for Becky and is now thinking with his little Buffet.
Becky won’t let him in her pants until he is THE richest dude in the world. After all she can bone any old rich guy…but THE richest guy, now come on.
So, Warren is running out of time and needs to go and score a big one that pushes him over the top.
Just a theory…
MOS is meeting it’s maker
Been there done that
Because there hasn’t been enough posted about the bailout:
(But this is actually pretty good.)
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/10/01/banking-crises-around-the-world.aspx
There goes Barney Frank again- blaming the Repubs. for the problems. He just lost some votes again. It’s obvious he wants to derail this and then blame Repubs again.
The man is brainless.
Jake: I guess you’ve never owned a Ford! Their engineers (especially in Germany) are some of the stupidest sumbitches on the planet.
http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1831863
36 days before general election
AND
oversold markets
AND
big liquidity tap?
The economy is indeed fucked to all hell. But the next 30 days will likely be a balls out short crusher counter-trend bitch ass rally that nobody wants to believe and everyone will short — 400 points up — and get dicked for another 400.
This is the endgame for the Republican party — this whole bullshit bailout plan. And PPT will be hitting it with full force. Most likely they’ll save their ammo for two weeks to one week out from Nov. 7.
There will be a monster rally — maybe right after opex Friday.
Technicals won’t predict shit because the market is controlled. But it’s coming.
When Son of Bailout passes, keep in mind that
Disorientation
Shortness of breath
Chest pain
are not always symptoms of a cardiac event, but can also result from some cockamanny theory about how Congress will act despite the fix being in from both parties, both candidates, and the lame duck.
Remember that if Washington were that reliable or smart, the economy and markets wouldn’t be in this mess. And take satisfaction in knowing that even though it won’t help the 401k’s of you or anyone you know, it will do a lot for some offshore accounts.
Sir Douchebag
You are correct, lad.
I wasnt sure if you were cc’d on that email.
“We don’t have a lot of leeway on time,” Reid told reporters in the Capitol. “One of the individuals in the caucus today talked about a major insurance company — a major insurance company — one with a name that everyone knows that’s on the verge of going bankrupt. That’s what this is all about.”
I bet the FDIC has no mo’ funny money.
When you succeed
and no bailout passes
and credit markets finish seizing up
and your neighbor loses his bullshit job
and you lose your bullshit job
and your all American town can’t pay
garbagemen,
cops,
teachers,
or nurses
and your hospital closes its doors
and the cops are working for free,
then not at all,
and your grocery store has a selection that the Soviet Union would pity,
then closes,
and when President Obama declares marshall law for much of the country,
but can’t enforce it because too many troops are in Iraq, Afghanistan or trying to help Israel in the new war against Iran,
and your wife is asking no one in particular,
“What are we going to do?!”
you can just look at her and smile and say,
“What are you crying about, honey, our side won.”
BUTCH: You okay?
MARSELLUS: Naw man. I’m pretty fuckin’ far from okay!
BUTCH:What now?
MARSELLUS:What now? Well let me tell you what now. I’m gonna call a couple pipe-hittin’ niggers, who’ll go to
work on homes here with a pair of pliers and a blow torch.
Hear me talkin’ hillbilly boy?! I ain’t through with you by a damn sight.I’m gonna git Medieval on your ass.
BUTCH: I meant what now, between me and you?
MARSELLUS:Oh, that what now? Well, let me tell ya what now between me an’ you. There is no me an’ you. Not no more.
BUTCH: So we’re cool?
MARSELLUS:Yeah man, we’re cool. One thing I ask — two things I ask: don’t tell nobody about this. This shit’s between me and you and the soon-to-be-livin’-the-rest-of-his- short-ass-life-in-agonizing-pain, Mr. Rapist here. It ain’t nobody else’s business. Two: leave town.
Tonight. Right now. And when you’re gone, stay gone. You’ve lost your Los Angeles privileges. Deal?
BUTCH: Deal.
Fly is correct. I sold MOS on the pop before the close. The hedge fund guys are selling commodities into the ground due to redemptions. I’ll pick some up in about 7 years.
Correction. I will buy some commodity plays on the 16th before options expiration on the 17th. I still think the FED will cut rates .5 right before the open and commodities which should be pretty well beat to death by then will counter rally.
Anyone else think the ferts are pretty much a buy after this MOS miss? Even if 09 estimates come down by 50%, they would still trade for a 7-10 pe across the board. I think they’re good somewhere in here & 5-10% lower for a decent trade. I suppose one must assume they will overshoot on the downside as they did on the way up, so one could be patient and pick spots.
When the time is right I’m buying MON.
Short Selling Ban extended till midnite 10/17
This is from the Economist, November, 1929:
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12327393
Check out AGM
MON is in a giant head’n shoulders on the weekly. Looks like it has room to the downside. Its only 30% off its high. The ferts have been cut in 1/2. I’d wait a little but I’m sure it will just trade with the whole group.
Bid 6.80 ask 7.33
Congress is Christmas Treeing the bailout package like a motherfucker.
Even with hours of airtime, Kudlow cannot shut his rye hole for one moment of contrary opinion.