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Monthly Archives: April 2013

Inflation Eases More Than Expected in China

China’s inflation eased more than forecast from a 10-month high as food-price gains ebbed, reducing pressure on policy makers to tighten credit as the world’s second-largest economy recovers from a slowdown.

The consumer price index rose 2.1 percent in March from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing. That compares with the 2.5 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg news survey of 38 economists and a 3.2 percent gain in February when spending for the Lunar New Year holiday pushed up prices.

Slowing price gains are a boost for Premier Li Keqiang as he seeks to sustain a rebound from the economy’s weakest annual expansion in 13 years. Authorities have drained cash from the financial system this year, with central bank GovernorZhou Xiaochuan saying that China should be on “high alert” after February’s inflation figure exceeded forecasts.

“Market concerns about central-bank tightening, which have been heavy after a high inflation reading in February, will be greatly relieved,” said Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong. “The central bank may have no need to raise benchmark interest rates or the required- reserve ratio this year.”

Food costs rose 2.7 percent in March from a year earlier, less than half of February’s 6 percent pace. The CPI fell 0.9 percent from February, the biggest drop in seven years.

Producer prices fell 1.9 percent from a year earlier, the 13th straight decline, compared with February’s 1.6 percent drop and matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 32 economists.

Stocks Rise…”

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Thailand’s Currency the Baht is Popping Off Japanese Easing

Thailand’s baht jumped the most in 10 months, breaching 29 per dollar for the first time since 1997, as demand for the nation’s bonds rose amid unprecedented monetary easing in Japan. Stocks dropped to a two-month low.

The currency jumped 1 percent from its April 5 close to 29.02 against the greenback as of 4:51 p.m. in Bangkok after reaching 28.93 earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest advance since June 4. The yield on sovereign debt due June 2023 fell three basis points to 3.46 percent, the lowest level since Nov. 6. Local financial markets were shut yesterday for a holiday.

Today’s baht gains were “too fast” and the Bank of Thailand is ready to intervene if the currency’s moves are not consistent with fundamentals, Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said in Bangkok. Capital controls are not being considered, he added. Global funds bought $292 million more Thai government debt than they sold last week, adding to net purchases of $9.6 billion in the first quarter, official data show. That compares with $31 billion for the whole of 2012.

“With floods of cash in Japan where rates are so low, investors are seeking higher returns and in this region, Thailand looks good thanks to its stable economy and political situation,” saidTsutomu Soma, manager of Rakuten Securities Inc.’s fixed-income business unit department inTokyo. “And the weaker yen won’t be harmful for Thailand as it doesn’t compete with Japan, unlike South Korea or China.”

Best Performer…”

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Why US Jobs Market Is Going to Get a Lot Worse

“Weak U.S. jobs data on Friday confirmed the worst trading week this year for European and U.S. stocks, and now analysts are warning that investors should brace for further trouble ahead as fiscal tightening begins to take its toll.

Friday’s jobs report came in well below expectations, raising concerns that the recovery in the world’s largest economy is weakening. March’s participation rate was at its lowest since 1979, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Just 88,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, although the unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent in February.

“In the labor market, at least, we see a real risk of even worse news down the line,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors said in a research note on Monday.

Weakening labor demand, not rising layoffs, is the key problem with the U.S. economy, according to Shepherdson. The weakening demand is mostly coming from smaller firms that are below the radar of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey, which reflects national factory activity.

The National Federation of Small Business job survey has done a decent job in foreshadowing movements in payrolls in recent years, according to Shepherdson, and it’s this report—due to be released on Tuesday—that’s warning of troubled waters ahead, he said.

“While actual job creation appears to be rising, plans to create jobs [in March] took a dive, falling 4 points to a net zero percent of small employers who plan to increase total employment. It seems that the stamina for growth is waning,” William C. Dunkelberg, chief economist for the NFIB said in a press release last week.

Looking at the figures, Pantheon’s Shepherdson said there could be a degree of respite in the official employment numbers for the next couple of months, before a distinct change…..”

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Pay Close Attention to Markets as a Bull Bear Battle Rages On

“Check out this chart of the S&P 500.

Notice something about the past several days?

 

 

You might not, because it’s a little hard to read, but we’ve now had 13 straight days of alternating red and white days, meaning 13 straight days of alternating positive and negative closes.

And while Friday was a negative close, today is looking positive for US futures, so it could be 14.

Last week, when the streak was at 11, that was already a record seen not since the early 80s….”

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Gapping Up and Down This Morning

SOURCE


NYSE

GAINERS

Symb Last Change Chg %
RIOM.N 4.54 +0.21 +4.85
EGL.N 22.41 +0.85 +3.94
ADT.N 46.32 +1.49 +3.32
RESI.N 20.00 +0.60 +3.09
SBY.N 21.37 +0.60 +2.89

LOSERS

Symb Last Change Chg %
APAM.N 37.99 -1.16 -2.96
BFAM.N 32.89 -0.77 -2.29
MRIN.N 15.12 -0.23 -1.50
AGI.N 12.46 -0.18 -1.42
AIF.N 19.75 -0.25 -1.25

NASDAQ

GAINERS

Symb Last Change Chg %
ISSC.OQ 7.02 +1.50 +27.17
BVA.OQ 6.47 +1.37 +26.96
NIHD.OQ 5.48 +0.94 +20.70
DRAM.OQ 2.44 +0.40 +19.61
IRIX.OQ 4.84 +0.74 +18.05

LOSERS

Symb Last Change Chg %
RIGL.OQ 4.50 -3.02 -40.16
RDWR.OQ 29.07 -8.51 -22.65
ANCX.OQ 12.00 -3.20 -21.05
FFIV.OQ 73.21 -17.21 -19.03
PDII.OQ 4.85 -0.59 -10.85

AMEX

GAINERS

Symb Last Change Chg %
REED.A 4.06 +0.14 +3.57
AKG.A 2.92 +0.09 +3.18
SAND.A 9.21 +0.21 +2.33
MHR_pe.A 25.33 +0.38 +1.52
BXE.A 6.23 +0.09 +1.47

LOSERS

Symb Last Change Chg %
FU.A 3.74 -0.11 -2.86
NML.A 20.40 -0.21 -1.02
CTF.A 20.01 -0.09 -0.45
EOX.A 6.35 -0.01 -0.16

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Hussman Says The Economy and Earnings are Getting FUGLY

“Fund manager John Hussman of the Hussman Funds sounds the alarm again in his most recent weekly note.

Specifically, he suggests that the economy is much weaker than most people realize and may, in fact, be in a recession.

And then he observes that corporate earnings, which have driven the stock market to a record high (without adjusting for inflation) are based on record-high profit margins that will almost certainly drop.

First, here’s Hussman on the economy:

While there is no shortage of smug observers who believe that recession risk does not exist and never did, the fact is that the strongest leading indicators, as well as the most timely coincident data, have deteriorated and danced along the border between economic expansion and economic recession for more than two years. Meanwhile, repeated rounds of QE have produced little but short-lived bounces to defer a recession that historically would have followed such deterioration more quickly. The chart below offers a good picture of this process.

 

 

 

Notice the successively lower levels, as each round of quantitative easing has smaller and smaller effects on real economic activity (speculative activity in the financial markets aside)…..”

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$GE to Buy $LUFK for $3.3 Billion

“(Reuters) – General Electric Co said it will buy oilfield services provider Lufkin Industries Inc for about $3.3 billion to expand its oil and gas business.

The offer values Lufkin at $88.50 per share, representing a premium of 38 percent to the stock’s Friday close. Lufkin shares rose to $87.97 in premarket trading.

Lufkin, which makes artificial lift technologies and industrial equipment, has operations in the United States, Canada, Latin America, the Middle East and Europe….”

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Slovenia’s Bond Yields Rise on Default Expectations

“Slovenia’s creditworthiness is deteriorating at the fastest pace in the world after Cyprus as investors speculate a banking crisis will force it to follow the island nation and become the sixth euro country to need aid.

Credit-default swaps insuring Slovenian debt for five years soared as much as 66 percent to a six-month high of 414 basis points on March 28 from 250 on March 15, the last trading day before Cyprus announced plans for its rescue. It’s now up 34 percent at 336 basis points, compared with a 45 percent increase for Cyprus and 18 percent for Portugal in the period.

Slovenia’s two-week old government is struggling to prop up banks hit by recession and saddled with bad loans worth about a fifth of the country’s economic output. Cyprus, which accounts for 0.2 percent of the euro region’s economy, was forced to inflict unprecedented losses on uninsured depositors and senior bondholders as part of the 10 billion euro ($13 billion) rescue of its financial system.

“Since the Cyprus resolution, Slovenia has been in the spotlight,” said Bas van Geffen, an analyst at Rabobank International in Utrecht, Netherlands. “The country’s smallness is now clearly a drawback in the post-Cyprus era, which has fueled speculation that the country might be the next Cyprus.”

Credit-default swaps on Slovenia, which accounts for 0.4 percent of the euro economy, have surpassed those for Spain, Italy and Croatia. The latter was approved to be the 28th member of the European Union last week.

  • Portugal Swaps…”

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Danish Central Banker Warns of Popping Bubbles

“Policy makers steering the global economy have pumped the financial system with so much liquidity that any exit risks popping potential asset bubbles or stunting a recovery, Danish central bank Governor Lars Rohde said.

“The risk is we stay in this climate too long and that the carpet bombing of liquidity spurs inflation,” Rohde, 59, said in an April 5 interview from his office in Copenhagen. Though there are no current signs of consumer price inflation “there is inflation, perhaps a bubble, in some asset classes,” he said. “Equities (MXWO) are trading close to all-time highs. Segments of property markets across the globe, for example London, also display symptoms of this. How do we exit this without killing whatever nascent recovery there might be at that time?”

The warning from the head of Denmark’s central bank, which has kept its deposit rate below zero since July, comes as policy makers in Japan, the euro area and the U.S. deliver unprecedented monetary stimulus to drag the global economy out of the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Easy money has fueled equity prices, helping send the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to an all-time high on April 2. The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond hit its lowest on record last week.

“We’re in a landscape where we’ve never been before, with regard to extreme monetary accommodation over a very, very long period of time,” said Rohde, who took over as the head of Denmark’s central bank in February. “What does that end up doing to a society? It’s been a necessary policy, but I have my concerns about what the long-term risks are.”

Crisis Policies…”

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Gold Futures Tick a Little Higher as Investors Weigh Data

“Gold futures gained in New York as investors weighed the outlook for continued economic stimulus in the U.S. after jobs data trailed estimates against continued outflows from exchange-traded products.

Gold jumped 1.9 percent on April 5 after U.S. payrolls in March were lower than economists’ expectations, bolstering the case for prolonged central-bank stimulus. Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETP backed by bullion, fell 0.9 metric ton to 1,205.31 tons as of April 5, the lowest since June 2011.

“What is important for gold at this point is that the recent U.S. economic data has eased the pressure that was weighing heavily on the market last week,” Joni Teves, a London-based analyst at UBS AG, said in a report today. “This should feed into lingering concerns about theU.S. economy and the potential for deterioration in data to push out tapering of QE further into the future.”

Bullion for June delivery rose 0.2 percent to $1,578.40 an ounce by 7:31 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Gold for immediate delivery fell 0.1 percent to $1,578.78 an ounce in London….”

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German Industrial Production Climbs

“German industrial output rebounded in February, adding to signs that Europe’s largest economy is stabilizing after a contraction in the fourth quarter.

Production (GRIPIMOM) rose 0.5 percent from January, when it contracted 0.6 percent, theEconomy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast a 0.3 percent gain, according to the median of 41 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, production dropped 1.8 percent when adjusted for working days.

Germany’s economy probably returned to growth in the first quarter after it shrank 0.6 percent in the final three months of 2012. Still, business sentiment in Germany dropped in March amid renewed concerns about the sovereign debt crisis and its impact on the 17-nation euro economy, which is struggling to emerge from recession….”

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$CEDC Files for Bankruptcy

“Vodka seller Central European Distribution Corp. (CEDC), headed by Russian billionaire Roustam Tariko, filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection amid heavy bond debt and with a pre-approved restructuring plan aimed at cutting about $665.2 million in liabilities.

The company, based in Warsaw, Poland, lists a U.S. address in Mount LaurelNew Jersey. It claimed $1.98 billion in assets and $1.73 billion in debt in court filings filed yesterday in U.S. bankruptcy court Wilmington, Delaware. Its stock trades as CEDC on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

CEDC said in February that it had proposed a debt-for- equity plan to reduce liabilities by more than $750 million. The company’s immediate financial crisis involved $257.9 million in 3 percent convertible notes that matured March 15.

The company said yesterday in a statement that holders of existing 2016 notes will receive $822 million, consisting of $172 million in cash, $450 million in new secured notes and $200 million in new convertible notes — an estimated recovery of about 83.7 percent….”

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Bird Flu Concerns Take Down China Stocks

China’s stocks fell after a two-day holiday amid concern a bird flu outbreak and property marketcurbs will hurt the nation’s economic recovery.

China Vanke Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co., the nation’s biggest developers, slumped at least 2 percent after Beijing increased the minimum downpayment on purchases of second homes. Air China Ltd. (601111) and China Southern Airlines Co. paced declines for carriers on speculation flu deaths may deter people from traveling. Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co., whose drugs the government said may combat the virus, jumped 10 percent, leading gains for health-care stocks….”

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