“Weak U.S. jobs data on Friday confirmed the worst trading week this year for European and U.S. stocks, and now analysts are warning that investors should brace for further trouble ahead as fiscal tightening begins to take its toll.
Friday’s jobs report came in well below expectations, raising concerns that the recovery in the world’s largest economy is weakening. March’s participation rate was at its lowest since 1979, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Just 88,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, although the unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent in February.
“In the labor market, at least, we see a real risk of even worse news down the line,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors said in a research note on Monday.
Weakening labor demand, not rising layoffs, is the key problem with the U.S. economy, according to Shepherdson. The weakening demand is mostly coming from smaller firms that are below the radar of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey, which reflects national factory activity.
The National Federation of Small Business job survey has done a decent job in foreshadowing movements in payrolls in recent years, according to Shepherdson, and it’s this report—due to be released on Tuesday—that’s warning of troubled waters ahead, he said.
“While actual job creation appears to be rising, plans to create jobs [in March] took a dive, falling 4 points to a net zero percent of small employers who plan to increase total employment. It seems that the stamina for growth is waning,” William C. Dunkelberg, chief economist for the NFIB said in a press release last week.
Looking at the figures, Pantheon’s Shepherdson said there could be a degree of respite in the official employment numbers for the next couple of months, before a distinct change…..”
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
