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Monthly Archives: April 2013

Safe Haven Bets Keep Driving the Dollar Higher

“The Dollar Index (DXY) approached the highest level since August before a U.S. report forecast to show payrolls increased in March, underpinning optimism the world’s biggest economy is recovering.

The yen rose against most of its major counterparts amid speculation its slide yesterday when the Bank of Japan (8301) expanded monetary stimulus was too rapid. The euro weakened after retail sales in the 17-nation area dropped in February, adding to signs the region is struggling to recover from recession. South Korea’s won fell to a seven-month low against the dollar as the risk of conflict with North Korea spurred capital outflows.

“The dollar is becoming more of a pro-cyclical currency,” said Ian Stannard, head of European currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in London. “If we get a positive surprise from U.S. payrolls we are likely to see the dollar regaining ground and it could be the catalyst for a move higher against the yen.”

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, gained 0.1 percent to 82.769 at 7:05 a.m. in New York after rising to 83.494 yesterday, the highest level since Aug. 2.

The dollar rose 0.1 percent to $1.2921 per euro after rising to $1.2746 yesterday, the strongest level since Nov. 21. The yen gained 0.1 percent to 96.27 per dollar, after slumping 3.4 percent yesterday. Japan’s currency appreciated 0.2 percent to 124.40 per euro.

Payrolls Increase…”

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Gold Traders Unsure of Direction as Price Action Nears Bear Market Territory

“Gold traders are split on whether bullion will plunge into its first bear market since 2008 as economies improve or rally as central banks buy more debt.

Twelve analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and the same number were bearish. A further three were neutral. Gold slumped to a 10-month low of $1,540.29 an ounce yesterday and investors sold $9.7 billion from exchange-traded products since their holdings reached a record Dec. 20. Hedge funds cut bets on higher prices by 70 percent since October.

Gold’s 12-year bull rally is probably ending as the U.S. leads a global economic recovery, according to banks from Credit Suisse Group AG to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Commerzbank AG says it’s too early to call an end to the rally and Standard Bank Plc forecasts prices will climb this year as central-bank stimulus and record-low interest rates spur demand for a protection of wealth. The Bank of Japan said yesterday it will double monthly bond buying to bolster the economy.

“The main driver behind gold’s weakness this year has been the focus on global growth and that’s meant rotation out of defensive assets like gold,” said Joni Teves, an analyst at UBS AG in London. “There’s this weak sentiment and it’s been feeding on itself. Central banks continue to pursue exceptionally loose monetary policies and create a still supportive environment for gold.”

Gold Price

The metal fell 7.2 percent to $1,554.66 in London this year. A close at $1,520.18 would be a 20 percent drop from the peak reached in September 2011, the common definition of a bear market. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities dropped 2.4 percent this year, and the MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) of equities gained 4.7 percent. Treasuries are little changed, a Bank of America Corp. index shows…..”

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Europe to Halt 10% of Refinery Production as Gaz Consumption Hitz 19 Year Lows

“Oil refiners in Europe will shut 10 percent of their plants this decade as fuel demand falls to a 19-year low.

Of the region’s 104 facilities, 10 will shut permanently by 2020 from France to Italy to the Czech Republic, a Bloomberg survey of six European refinery executives showed. Oil consumption is headed for a fifth year of declines to the lowest level since 1994, the International Energy Agency estimates. Two-thirds of European refineries lost money in 2011, according to Essar Energy Plc (ESSR), owner of the U.K.’s second-largest plant.

“Purely from the falling European demand point of view, one bigger refinery or two smaller plants would have to shut in Europe every year,” David Wech, who helps advise oil companies and governments as managing director at researcher JBC Energy GmbH, said in a phone interview from Vienna. “And it’s not even assuming any negative impact from more competitive refining markets in other regions.”

A 50 percent jump in three years in U.S. diesel exports coupled with waning demand for imports of European fuels, as well as two recessions in five years in the euro region, have curbed profit from oil products at companies from Italy’s Eni SpA (ENI) to Royal Dutch Shell Plc. (RDSA) Refining margins dropped to $7 this month, from a peak of about $20 a barrel in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The losses are being compounded by the configuration of Europe’s refineries. Most of the plants, more than 50 percent of which were constructed in the wake of World War II, are geared toward gasoline production, though diesel now accounts for 75 percent of the region’s motor fuel needs.

Legacy Sites…”

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Banks Lobby Against Basel Rules Stating Credit Liquidity Risks Will Soar

“Banks are lobbying against international plans to tighten rules on securitization claiming they will tie up capital and starve the economy of credit.

Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN)BNP Paribas SA (BNP) and Deutsche Bank AG are among lenders that have written to the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in Switzerland to voice concern about reforms to be implemented from 2014. In a securitization, banks re-package assets, usually loans, and sell them in slices to outside investors.

Regulators are overhauling the rules after the widespread use of the technique in the U.S. mortgage market contributed to the financial crisis by spreading risk from lenders to the so- called shadow banking sector. The firms say the plans, which will force banks to hold more capital against any tranche they keep, would make transactions prohibitively expensive.

“The imposition of rules that serve to materially increase the capital requirements of securitizations could have the unintended consequence of creating disincentives for banks to be active in the securitization markets,” Rudolf Bless, Credit Suisse’s deputy chief financial officer, and Brian Chin, head of securitized products, wrote in a letter to the Basel group published this month. That could undermine “credit supply and overall liquidity of the global economy,” they wrote.

June Meeting

In recent months, banks have begun to look again at securitizations as a way of meeting the higher capital targets – – without cutting lending or raising fresh equity….”

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BRIC Index Slips Again, Now Down 10% From Recent Peak Highs

“Emerging-market stocks sank to a four-month low, sending the MSCI BRIC Index (MXBRIC)down 10 percent from this year’s peak as bird flu concerns sparked a slump in Chinese airlines and capital outflows from South Korea accelerated.

China Southern Airlines Co. (1055) fell 8.5 percent in Hong Kong on concern the widening bird flu infections may curb travel. Hyundai Motor Co. (005380), which competes with Japan’sToyota Motor (7203) Corp. selling cars abroad, slid to a 17-month low in Seoul as the yen traded near its weakest level since August 2009. Foreign funds unloaded a net $1.2 billion of Kospi index (KOSPI) shares this week, stock exchange data show, as the risk of conflict with North Korea spurred outflows. OAO MegaFon fell by a record in Moscow after JP Morgan Chase & Co. cut the stock’s rating.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipped 1 percent to 1,006.88 at 5 p.m. in Hong Kong, its fifth day of declines. The gauge has dropped 2.7 percent this week. The MSCI BRIC Index retreated 10 percent from its Feb. 1 high, heading for the threshold that some investors identify as a correction. Six people have died from a new strain of bird flu in China. North Korea said yesterday it passed a law authorizing “counter- actions” against U.S. aggression including a nuclear strike. Data today may show U.S. payrolls growth slowed after weekly jobless claims rose.

“Global funds are skeptical in investing in the emerging markets amid the political and health concerns,” Aneesh Srivastava, chief investment officer at IDBI Federal Life Insurance Co. in Mumbai, said in a phone interview today. “Markets will start factoring in the fundamentals once the current headwinds disappear.”

Kospi Drops….”

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The Aussie and Kiwi Dollars Hit Four Year Highs Against the Yen, Fall Against the Greenback

“The Australian and New Zealand dollars touched the highest in more than four years against the yen after the Bank of Japan (8301) expanded monetary stimulus, boosting the allure of higher-yielding assets.

The so-called Aussie and kiwi dollars retreated against the greenback as Japan’s easing measures increased demand for the U.S. currency. Australia’s bonds gained, sending yields to a one-month low.

“If you’ve got the BOJ pressing the long end of the yield curve, then Aussie-yen as a carry is going to be pretty attractive,” said Thomas Averill, managing director in Sydney at Rochford Capital, a currency and interest-rate risk management company. “One of the quickest ways to generate inflation is to weaken the currency and it’s a happy byproduct of their policy.”

The Australian dollar declined 0.2 percent to 100.36 yen as of 4:26 p.m. in Sydney after touching 101.13, the highest since August 2008. The kiwi fell 0.2 percent to 80.99 yen, after reaching 81.61, the strongest since July 2008.

The Aussie slipped 0.2 percent to $1.0419 and is little changed this week. The New Zealand dollar slid 0.2 percent to 84.09 U.S. cents and has gained 0.5 percent since March 29.

“What we’re seeing now is very much a different transmission channel where the strengthening dollar-yen is leading to some upward pressure on other dollar-Asia crosses,” said John Horner, a currency strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in Sydney. “With Australia trading quite closely with a number of those Asian currency pairs, it’s translating into pressure on Aussie as well.”

BOJ Stimulus…”

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Airline Stocks in China Crash and Burn Over New Bird Flu Epidemic

China Southern Airlines Co. (1055) plunged the most in more than a year in Hong Kong trading, leading a slump in shares of the nation’s carriers on concern an outbreak of bird flu may hurttravel demand.

China Southern, the country’s biggest domestic carrier, fell 8.5 percent, the most since Jan. 16, 2012, to HK$3.87, while Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (293) dropped the most in almost eight months. Shares in Air China Ltd. (601111)China Eastern Airlines Corp. (670)Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SIA) and Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN) also declined, causing the Bloomberg Asia Pacific Airlines Index to drop the most since May.

The death toll in China from a new strain of bird flu rose to six people as Shanghai began slaughtering birds at a local market and concerns of an outbreak sparked the biggest drop in Hong Kong stocks in more than eight months. Previous outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, and bird flu had emptied planes and caused some Asian airlines to post losses.

“People are worried the new bird flu would develop into a disaster like SARS,” Davin Wu, a transportation analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG, said by phone. “At least leisure travelers will be cutting back their trips to China.”

Shanghai, China’s financial hub, has reported six of the 14 human cases of the H7N9 strain of avian influenza confirmed by local authorities since the country’s health ministry reported the first cases last month, China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported yesterday.

Chicken Feed…”

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Samsung Crushes Earnings

“Even without Christmas or the benefit of a new hit device, Samsung Electronics Co. (005930)posted near-record earnings in the first quarter. Profit (005930) is set to surge when the Galaxy S4 smartphone goes on sale this month.

The mobile-phone business again was the company’s biggest earnings driver, with sales of cheaper handsets in emerging markets supplementing growth by high-end Galaxy models. Operating profit rose to about 8.7 trillion won ($7.7 billion) in the three months ended March 31 from 5.69 trillion won a year earlier, Asia’s biggest technology company said today…”

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Soros Says the Yen Could Fall Like an ‘Avalanche’

“Billionaire investor George Soros and Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the Bank of Japan (8301)’s plan to end deflation risks weakening the yen.

“If the yen starts to fall, which it has done, and people in Japan realize that it’s liable to continue and want to put their money abroad, then the fall may become like an avalanche,” Soros said today in an interview on CNBC.

The currency will have to depreciate “much more” for BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to reach his inflation target of 2 percent, Gross said yesterday.

Soros and Gross chimed in after Kuroda announced plans yesterday to double the BOJ’s monthly bond purchases to about 7.5 trillion yen ($77.8 billion) as it seeks to achieve 2 percent annual inflation in 2 years. Japan’s currency fell 18 percent in the past six months on speculation policy makers were planning to pump more money into the economy….”

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HR933

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xow6VC851C0 450 300]

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The Bearded Clam Opines on Kleptocracy

“Our April Fool’s wish: someone in the inner circle of power would finally tell the truth.

In an unprecedented abandonment of his carefully scripted responses to Congressional questions, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke unleashed what appeared to be a heart-felt and spontaneous disavowal of the financial and political systems of the United States.

Asked a question about the wealth effect, Bernanke paused and said, “The wealth effect. Ah, right.” He then smiled faintly and shook his head. “You want to know about the wealth effect? Well, I’ll be candid with you. This whole thing is a kleptocracy–the financial system, the political system, it’s one big kleptocracy. That’s the real wealth effect.”

Seeming to find his footing, Bernanke continued with a passion that startled the audience. “You know, I told myself to just repeat the party line for another year so I could step down quietly and let Yellen or another of the toadies take over, but I realized that I can no longer stomach the lies, the obfuscation and the plundering.”

“Yes, I have a plum position lined up at Goldman Sachs after my retirement. You know, give a few speeches and pocket a couple of million dollars, but I am tired of the dirtiness of all this money.”

Leaning into the microphone, Bernanke asked, “Aren’t you tired of the dirtiness of all the money you take? Aren’t you tired of the lies we’re all living?”

“I am supposed to be an expert in economics. So I’ll tell you how the system works in very simple terms. It’s no different from the late Roman Empire, actually. The trick is to get close to the seat of Imperial power, which in our country is the Federal government. You bribe those on the make–there’s always an abundance of them–to grant you special privileges, subsidies, contracts or a monopoly. You skim a great fortune off this proximity to political and financial power, and then you take this fortune and buy a rentier income–you know, thousands of rental homes, farmland, buildings in Manhattan, tax-free municipal bonds, and so on.” ….”

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The Fed, Mal Investment, and the Unproductive Use of Credit

“Great fortunes are built on the proper use of credit. Improper use of credit leads to mal-investment and wealth destruction.

We cannot understand our fundamental financial problems if we do not understand the proper use of credit. Credit has a key role in capitalism; credit-starved economies are underdeveloped economies, as economist Hernando De Soto explained in his masterwork, The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else.

In the chronically underdeveloped economies De Soto describes, households have assets–land, dwellings, small businesses–but since the assets do not have legally recognized status as “property” (because the system for recognizing and registering property is both cumbersome and corrupt), they cannot act as collateral for borrowed capital, i.e. loans.

As a result, the majority of the assets are “dead capital,” difficult to sell, pass on to future generations or use as collateral.

Great fortunes are built on the proper use of credit. The borrower needs capital to expand his/her enterprise, and the lender needs a fast-growing enterprise with collateral and an income stream to support a low-risk, high-yield loan.

We can profitably look to Colonial America as an example of a credit-starved economy. In the wake of the Revolutionary war and the ratification of the Constitution (1789), the U.S. financial system was a mess: debts left by the war burdened the new government, which historian Thomas McCaw noted “started on a shoestring and almost immediately went bankrupt.”

Differing views on the role of the central government, central bank and credit splintered the political elite, with Hamilton squaring off against Madison and Jefferson (though Madison’s views were by no means identical to Jefferson’s).

Meanwhile, in the real economy, ordinary farmers and entrepreneurs were desperate for long-term credit to fuel their rapidly growing enterprises. Though states were banned by the Constitution from issuing their own currency, states got around this prohibition by granting bank charters. The banks promptly issued the credit that an entrepreneurial economy needed.

The political elite, regardless of their differences, were appalled by this explosion of privately issued and essentially unregulated credit, but this access to credit–turning “dead capital” into collateral–fueled the astonishing growth of the U.S. economy in the 1790s and early 1800s.

The American economy in this phase was anything but orderly or well-regulated. Wild and risky better describe the financial and commercial chaos of the era, but this untamed capitalism led to more successes than failures, and the bankrupt enterprises and busted banks were absorbed by the fast growth of the real economy.

This chaotic explosion of credit and entrepreneurial drive was the opposite of central planning. Risk was everywhere; security in today’s meaning did not exist….”

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Fast Food Forward: Who Can Really Afford to Pay a Living Wage ?

“Stephen Warner works part-time at a McDonald’s in New York City, earning the legal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour. He hasn’t seen a pay bump since he started six months ago. Depending on how many shifts he gets, he says his take-home pay sometimes comes out to less than $100 for the week.

Hoping for a living wage, the 27-year-old said he plans to protest his own employer on Thursday, and he believes that several of his coworkers will join him.

“While I’m making $7.25, my money can’t take me anywhere. The price of living is going up it seems every day,” Warner, a Bronx resident, said in an interview Wednesday. “I appreciate the opportunity to work. But I want them to consider how much I make and ask [themselves] if they could live off of it.”

Warner has joined a rare fast-food labor campaign called Fast Food Forward. The union- and faith-backed effort drew national attention last November when itspearheaded strikes at several of New York City’s fast-food restaurants, criticizing the likes of Wendy’s, Taco Bell and Burger King for paying wages that workers struggle to live on. Warner’s protest Thursday will be part of what organizers are billing as the campaign’s second and larger wave.

Jonathan Westin, organizing director at New York Communities for Change, a community group closely involved in the campaign, said he expects between 400 and 500 fast-food employees in New York City to take part in Thursday’s one-day strike, or about double the number of those who participated last year. That’s a small fraction of the city’s tens of thousands of such employees, but Westin said the participation may be large enough to disrupt business at some of the affected restaurants.

Westin said many of the workers who plan to protest on Thursday were inspired by the actions of their colleagues last year. And many of those employees, he added, had been inspired by the strikers who walked out of Walmart stores on Black Friday with similar complaints of low wages and a lack of benefits like health care coverage…”

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Are Rising Home Prices A Recovery or Another Bubble ?

“Shah Gilani writes: Where there’s smoke there’s fire.

When it comes to rising home prices, the question is whether the on-fire price increases are a healthy sign of a housing recovery or a smoke screen masking another investor-led real estate bubble.

The answer is it’s both….”

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Heads Up as the Russell Index Has ‘Begun to Crack’

“Anyone who is telling you the markets began to crack on Wednesday is wrong.

The market began to deteriorate on Monday when the Russell 2000 RUT +0.46%  declined 1.6% in what seemed like a matter of minutes. Review the Russell ETFIWM +0.63%  for verification.

Small-cap stocks were leading the way up, they have been increasing aggressively for quite a while, this started when the Russell broke above 866 on the first trading day of the year, and on Monday the Russell hit 953. In as fast as it might take someone to secure a loan for a home, the Russell broke out in the Russell stood out until it hit 953.

However, on Monday that seemed to change. On Monday the other markets were resilient but the Russell remained weak. They all experienced a period of intraday weakness, the Dow Jones industrial average DJIA +0.30%  , Nasdaq COMP +0.05%  , and S&P 500 SPX +0.30%  too, but when Monday ended, only the Russell still looked exceptionally weak.

As in all cases where deterioration begins, investors also want to see follow-through to confirm downside moves, and that is again what happened on Tuesday in the Russell.

What’s more, it did not happen in the other markets then. But that may be because the Russell is focused on smaller cap stocks, which usually represent the riskiest category of stocks on the general market. Still, there was follow through to Monday’s weakness on Tuesday and that was important because it told us investors were beginning to take risk off of the table.

We have been talking about this since Monday when this began, pinpointing the double short Russell ETFTWM -1.09%   as an instrument that was increasing aggressively as these Russell declines transpired. When I wrote this, TWM was up about 7.2% since the break in the Russell began on Monday..

However, it wasn’t until Wednesday that the Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq actually began to crack. None of these are as broken as the Russell, in fact my observations tell me that the Dow Jones industrial average is still somewhat resilient, but the Russell was leading the way up when the market was surging, so it is no surprise that the Russell leads the market down when the reversal lower begins. If that reversal has already begun the Russell is already leading the way as well….”

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Unmasked: The Secret World of Offshore Tax Havens

“Although the mega-rich and influential often use complex offshore havens to hide assets, own yachts and art masterpieces and avoid taxes — often with the help of some of the world’s biggest banks — but lower-income individuals also use offshore accounts, a new study from the Washington, D.C.-based International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) reveals.

The ICIJ, in conjunction with a group of investigative journalists, cataloged a smorgasbord of shady dealings by the wealthy and others — including government officials — in an exhaustive 15-month investigation.

In all, 86 journalists from 46 nations used high-tech data to sift through millions of leaked documents going back decades.

Caught up in the net of the tax shelters are American doctors and dentists, Wall Street swindlers, Russian executives, international arms dealers and families of despots, among others.

“We already knew how secret and inaccessible the offshore industry is, but we were surprised by now vast and far-reaching it is,” said Gerard Ryle, director of the ICIJ.

“We expected to find only the mega rich using [offshore accounts],” he told CNNMoney. “But in fact we found it was being used by a much broader section of society.”

The exhaustive effort “sheds new light on the methods used to deceive fiscal authorities and hide money,” German magazine Spiegel stated.

According to CNNMoney, the hidden accounts included proceeds from Ponzi schemes and money drained from nations’ coffers, with the cross-border proceeds as high as $1.6 trillion annually.

“I’ve never seen anything like this. This secret world has finally been revealed,” Arthur Cockfield, a law professor at Queen’s University, told the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

The ICIJ said about 130,000 people were identified in the documents, many from unnamed sources believed to include banking industry informants….”

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Corzine Escapes Breach of Fiduciary Duty Lawsuit for the Moment

“A risky business strategy as well as “negligent conduct” by former Chief Executive Officer Jon S. Corzine and his management team contributed to the unraveling of MF Global Holdings Ltd., MFGLQ +2.56% a new report said Thursday.

The report, released by Louis J. Freeh, the trustee for MF Global Holdings, laid much of the blame for the company’s 2011 bankruptcy at Mr. Corzine’s feet, accusing him of implementing trading strategies with minimal oversight and exceeding board-approved limits for some European trades the company made under his stewardship.

The brokerage Mr. Corzine was trying to turn around was doomed due to “inadequate systems” and a trading strategy that had “fatally flawed” capital and liquidity assumptions, said the 174-page report, filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court Thursday morning.

Mr. Freeh planned to bring a lawsuit alleging breaches of fiduciary duty against former MF Global executives including Mr. Corzine, but held off to join settlement talks instead, according to the report and a person familiar with Mr. Freeh’s thinking.

Mr. Freeh agreed to postpone filing any suit until a mediator in a related MF Global civil case could complete his work, the person added. Mr. Freeh and other attorneys representing customers of the firm hope that settlement talks will result in faster distributions of payments to all parties.

Parties in the settlement talks are expected to meet next week, people familiar with the matter said. The talks are being handled by a mediator, retired California Judge Daniel Weinstein.

Steven Goldberg, a spokesman for Mr. Corzine, said in a statement that Mr. Freeh’s report “is a clear case of Monday-morning quarterbacking.” He added that the report “intentionally ignores the failure of” counterparties to fulfill contracts with MF Global, a result that contributed to the firm’s demise….”

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Companies Keep Running a Gauntlet of Pitfalls in China

“Recent troubles in China for Apple Inc. AAPL -1.13% and Volkswagen AGVOW3.XE -0.03% represent a growing risk for global companies, as their dependence on the booming Chinese economy leaves them exposed to Beijing’s shifting winds.

In some cases, foreign companies are coming under withering attacks from state-run media. In others, they are running afoul of Chinese regulators or government policies, such as an anticorruption campaign that limits ostentatious gifts.

On Monday, Apple apologized for its Chinese customer-service policies and said it would revamp them following more than two weeks of criticism from government-run media. It isn’t clear whether the spotlight will hurt Apple in what has become the tech giant’s No. 2 market after the U.S.

Late last month, Volkswagen said it would recall 380,000 vehicles following a television broadcast that said some of its cars suffered from maintenance issues. Analysts said the move could cost the auto maker up to $618 million. Fast-good giants Yum Brands Inc. YUM +0.12% andMcDonald’s Corp. MCD +1.32% took sales hits after state media accused them late last year of failing to quickly address problems with chicken suppliers…..”

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