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Monthly Archives: October 2011

Occupy Detroit impeded by cold, rainy weather

The 100 or so assholes camped out in the middle of a Detroit park (ironically dedicated to and adourned with the statues of business men who would be ashamed to live here nowadays) have thankfully had to suffer some of the most miserable, rainy October weather imaginable, up to now.

May the plagues against them continue…

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The past week’s weather hasn’t always been conducive to their cause, with rainy days and cold temperatures, but members of the Occupy Detroit movement say they’re undeterred and will stay the course at their encampment in Grand Circus Park downtown.

“We’re still basically a work in progress, but I continue to remain wildly optimistic about what we’re accomplishing here,” Sarah Coffey, 38, one of the volunteers in charge of organizing the group’s informational meetings, said late Sunday afternoon.

“In order for us to transform society, we have to bridge the differences between the races and classes. And when you stop to think about it, is there any better spot to begin than in Detroit?”

Ann Arbor residents Marcia Mai, 59, and Bob Davis, 87, said they came downtown to observe what was happening.

“We’re here to show some solidarity with the young people, and it’s great to see they’re actually doing something about the gross inequalities that exist in the country,” said Mai, who said she did her share of protesting during the 1970s.

“I’m encouraged because people are here and they plan to remain for the long term,” Mai said. “And why not? Their future has been impacted by a loss of jobs and homes, and the fact that they’re committed to being here is very moving to see.”

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Libya moving to implement Shariah Law

This naturally includes such principles as totally banning interest on loans because it “pits man against man” or some such nonsense. Awesome…

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The transitional government leader Mustafa Abdul-Jalil called on Libyans to show “patience, honesty and tolerance” and eschew hatred as they embark on rebuilding the country at the end of an 8-month civil war.

Abdul-Jalil set out a vision for the post-Qaddafi future with an Islamist tint, saying that Islamic Sharia law would be the “basic source” of legislation in the country and that existing laws that contradict the teachings of Islam would be nullified.

In a gesture that showed his own piety, he urged Libyans not to express their joy by firing in the air, but rather to chant “Allahu Akbar,” or God is Great. He then stepped aside and knelt to offer a brief prayer of thanks.

“This revolution was looked after by God to achieve victory,” he told the crowd at the declaration ceremony in the eastern city of Benghazi, the birthplace of the uprising against Qaddafi began. He thanked those who fell in the fight against Qaddafi’s forces. “This revolution began peacefully to demand the minimum of legitimate rights, but it was met by excessive violence.”

Tens of thousands gathered in the eastern city of Benghazi Sunday as Libya’s transitional leader declared his country’s liberation, three days after ousted dictator Muammar Qaddafi was captured and killed.

President Obama congratulated Libya on their declaration of liberation.

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Dozens remain trapped after quake in Turkey

ANKARA, Turkey – Rescue teams on Monday sifted through rubble of flattened multistory buildings to try to reach dozens of people believed trapped beneath after a 7.2-magnitude earthquake struck eastern Turkey.

Cries of panic and horror filled the air as the earthquake struck, killing at least 238 people as buildings pancaked and crumpled into rubble.

Tens of thousands fled into the streets running, screaming or trying to reach relatives on cell phones as apartment and office buildings cracked or collapsed. As the full extent of the damage became clear, survivors dug in with shovels or even their bare hands, desperately trying to rescue the trapped and the injured.

“My wife and child are inside! My 4-month-old baby is inside!” CNN-Turk television showed one young man sobbing outside a collapsed building in Van, the provincial capital.

The hardest hit area was Ercis, an eastern city of 75,000 close to the Iranian border, which lies on one of Turkey’s most earthquake-prone zones. The bustling city of Van, about 55 miles to the south, also sustained substantial damage. Highways in the area caved in. The temblor struck at 1:41 p.m. local time, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

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Karzai says Afghanistan would back Pakistan over U.S. in war

KABUL, Afghanistan – Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said if the United States and Pakistan ever went to war, his country would back Islamabad, drawing a sharp rebuke Sunday from Afghan lawmakers who claimed the country’s top officials were adopting hypocritical positions.

The scenario is exceedingly unlikely and appears to be less a serious statement of policy than an Afghan overture to Pakistan, just days after Karzai and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Islamabad must do more to crack down on militants using its territory as a staging ground for attacks on Afghanistan.

“If fighting starts between Pakistan and the U.S., we are beside Pakistan,” Karzai said is an interview with private Pakistani television station GEO that aired Saturday. “If Pakistan is attacked and the people of Pakistan need Afghanistan’s help, Afghanistan will be there with you.”

He said that Kabul would not allow any nation, including the U.S., to dictate its policies.

Both Washington and Kabul have repeatedly said Pakistan is providing sanctuary to militant groups launching attacks in Afghanistan.

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U.S. schools fear worst of cuts to come

LANCASTER, Pa. (AP) – Teenage girls in ponytails and boys in long athletic shorts dash across the gym at Abraham Lincoln Middle School, pausing their game of indoor tennis to motion “Y-M-C-A” with their arms as the Village People’s song blares from the loudspeaker.

It’s a scene happening less frequently these days. Budget cuts and teacher layoffs have forced the school to cut some PE classes, reduce library hours and eliminate small literacy classes for problem readers and Spanish for sixth- and seventh-graders.

“I’m scared to death. As we continue to look at fewer and fewer non-classroom positions that are there, at some point it’s going to impact core classroom positions and that’s a very, very scary thing,” said principal Josh Keene.

Educators across America, like Keene, are bracing for a tough reality. Even in a best-case scenario that assumes strong economic growth next year, it won’t be until 2013 or later when districts see budget levels return to pre-recession levels, said Daniel Domenech, executive director of the American Association of School Administrators in Arlington, Va. That means more cuts and layoffs are likely ahead.

“The worst part is that it’s not over,” Domenech said.

Already, an estimated 294,000 jobs in the education sector have been lost since 2008, including those in higher education.

The cuts are felt from Keller, Texas, where the district moved to a pay-for-ride transportation system rather than cut busing altogether, to Georgia, where 20 days were shaved off the calendar for pre-kindergarten classes. In California, a survey found that nearly half of all districts last year cut or reduced art, drama and music programs. Nationally, 120 districts primarily in rural areas have gone to a four-day school week to save on transportation and utility costs, according to the National Conference of State Legislators. Others are implementing fees to play sports, cutting field trips and ending after-school programs.

Districts have little choice but to put off buying textbooks and technology and training teachers, said Rob Monson, a principal in Parkston, S.D., who is president of the National Association of Elementary School Principals.

At Abraham Lincoln Middle School, Keene says he’s worried — not just about offering electives next year, but whether class sizes in core subjects will jump from around 25 to 35 or 40. His district received $6 million less from the state this year, which meant six staff positions in his school were cut. Even if state funding remains the same next year, the district expects to have from $5 million to $7 million less because of increased pension obligations and other expenses.

Recognizing the reality districts face, President Barack Obama included $30 billion in his $447 billion jobs creation package to save teachers’ jobs. The Senate rejected the jobs package as well as a separate measure focused on saving the jobs of teachers and first responders. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has said the plan resembles “bailouts” that haven’t proven to work and only perpetuate economic problems.

Not everyone sees all doom and gloom in schools’ budget woes. Some say many districts haven’t wisely spent tax dollars or didn’t adequately prepare for the end of the $100 billion in federal stimulus dollars for schools. And that while the number of students per teacher in America dropped from 22.3 in 1970 to 15.3 in 2008, according to the National Center For Education Statistics, they say the reduction hasn’t made a noticeable difference.

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Long term health care looming issue with administration decision

WASHINGTON (AP) – The Obama administration’s decision to pull the plug on a financially flawed long-term care insurance plan is likely to worsen a dilemma most middle-class families are totally unprepared for.

A nursing home can cost more than $200 a day and a home health aide averages $450 a week, usually part-time. Yet long-term care is one major health expense for which nearly all Americans are uninsured. Only about 3 percent of adults have their own policy, and Medicare doesn’t cover it.

Families confront their financial exposure when a frail elder takes a turn for the worse, a teen is calamitously injured in a car crash or a middle-aged worker suffers a debilitating stroke.

The demise of the Community Living Assistance Services and Supports program, or CLASS, means it could take a decade or longer before politicians seriously engage the issue again. By then the retirement of the Baby Boomers will be in full swing.

“Long-term care is a critical issue, and people are in total denial about it,” said Bill Novelli, former CEO of AARP. “I am very sorry the administration did what they finally did, although I understand it. It is going to take a long time to get this back — and fixed.”

The irony, experts say, is that paying for long-term care is the kind of problem insurance should be able to solve. It has to do with the mathematics of risk.

Most drivers will have some kind of accident during their years behind the wheel, but few will be involved in a catastrophic wreck. And some very careful drivers will not experience any accidents. The risks of long-term care are not all that different, says economist Harriet Komisar of the Georgetown University Public Policy Institute.

“A small percentage of people are going to need a year, two years, five years or more in a nursing home, but for those who do, it’s huge,” Komisar said. “Insurance makes sense when the odds are small but the financial risk is potentially high and unaffordable.”

Komisar and her colleagues estimate that nearly 7 in 10 people will need some level of long-term care after turning 65. That’s defined as help with personal tasks such as getting dressed, going to the toilet, eating, or taking a bath.

Many of those who need help will get it from a family member. Only 5 percent will need five years or more in a nursing home. And 3 in 10 will not need any long-term care assistance at all.

For those who do need extended nursing home care, Medicaid has become the default provider, since Medicare only covers short-term stays for rehab. But Medicaid is for low-income people, so the disabled literally have to impoverish themselves to qualify, a wrenching experience for families.

Liberals say the answer is government-sponsored insurance, like the CLASS plan the Obama administration included in the health overhaul law, only to find it wouldn’t work financially.

The administration was unable to reconcile twin goals of CLASS: financial solvency and affordable coverage easily accessible to all working adults, regardless of health.

Conservatives have called for private coverage, perhaps with tax credits to make it more affordable.

Some experts say it will take a combination of both approaches.

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Banks seek to limit imminent losses from Greek debt

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The world’s biggest banks are squabbling with European leaders over the size of losses on their Greek bonds as they seek a deal to cut the country’s debt load, two people with knowledge of the discussions said.

The financial companies, represented by the Institute of International Finance, proposed a loss of 40 percent on Greek debt, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because talks are confidential. The European Union is calling on investors to forfeit as much as 60 percent, making a compromise at 50 percent possible, the person said.

The talks are part of an attempt to solve the two-year-old sovereign-debt crisis that has pushed Greece closer to default, roiled global markets and dented confidence in the survival of the 17-nation currency. EU leaders are scrambling to reach an agreement on bolstering the region’s rescue fund, recapitalizing banks and relieving Greece to avoid contagion spreading to Italy and Spain before another summit in two days.

Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the group of euro-area finance ministers, said talks on private-sector involvement in a second aid package for Greece are focusing on losses of “about 50 percent, 60 percent.”

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EU PMI contracts most since July 2009

LONDON (Reuters) – The euro zone’s private sector tipped further into decline in October, according to business surveys on Monday that showed the bloc’s economy is in serious danger of lurching from stagnation into outright recession.

Shrinking order books and plummeting confidence sent euro zone factories into contraction for the third month in a row, and service sector companies for a second month.

The Flash Markit Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity at thousands of firms from banks to restaurants, sank to 47.2 this month from September’s 48.8, well below a Reuters consensus of 48.5.

In fact, none of the 35 economists polled by Reuters thought this preliminary reading of the services index would fall so far below the 50 mark that divides growth and contraction.

With Europe’s leaders laboring over effective means to fight a sovereign debt crisis that threatens to unleash a new global financial crisis, the PMIs showed little hope of cheerier days ahead soon.

“Most indicators seem to suggest it is going to get worse not better in the coming months. So there is a significant chance of a contraction in the fourth quarter,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at survey compiler Markit.

He said the current level of the indexes, which have a good record of tracking economic growth, could signal a quarterly rate of decline approaching half a percentage point.

The services new business sub-index fell to 46.2 in October from 47.1 in September, its lowest reading since July 2009 when the euro zone was still escaping the worst recession since World War II.

A Reuters poll conducted earlier this month showed a 40 percent chance the euro zone will slip back into recession, while economists now expect the European Central Bank to reverse some of its monetary policy tightening later this year.

German manufacturing contracted this month for the first time in two years, according to individual country PMIs released earlier on Monday. The service sector rebounded unexpectedly but that was perhaps the only bright spot among this month’s surveys.

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China PMI rebounds modestly

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s vast manufacturing sector expanded moderately in October to snap three months of contraction, reflecting the resilience of robust domestic demand that is likely to soothe fears of an abrupt slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

HSBC’s flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) also showed price pressures eased in China, underlining consumer price data that has shown a slight pullback in inflation from three-year peaks.

The flash PMI, designed to give an early snapshot of the month’s factory activity, rose to 51.1 in October from September’s final reading of 49.9 as new orders and new export orders expanded.

The reading surpassed the 50-point level demarcating expansion from contraction for the first time since June, when the PMI was 51.6.

“Thanks to the pick-up in new orders and output, the headline flash PMI rebounded back into expansionary territory during October, marking a steady start to manufacturing activities in the four quarter,” said Qu Hongbin, China economist at HSBC.

“Meanwhile, inflation components within the PMI results confirmed stable output prices growth and slower input price inflation. All these data confirm our view that there is no risk of a hard landing in China,” he said.

Qu expects annual industrial output growth to hover around 13 percent in October and the central bank to keep monetary policy stable in the coming months.

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EU outlines bank plan, rescue fund

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European leaders reached the halfway mark of their marathon to end the debt crisis, outlining plans to aid banks and ruling out tapping the European Central Bank’s balance sheet to boost the region’s rescue fund.

Stocks advanced and the euro rose after Europe’s 13th crisis-management summit in 21 months, which also explored how to strengthen the International Monetary Fund’s role. The leaders excluded a forced restructuring of Greek debt, sticking with the tactic of enticing bondholders to accept losses to help restore the country’s finances. China said today that it had “faith” in the European Union’s ability to tackle the crisis.

“It seems that progress has been made over the weekend to get to a ‘comprehensive package,’ but it is unlikely to be a bold one,” said Juergen Michels at Citigroup Inc. in London. “There remain many open questions.”

Greece’s deteriorating finances have narrowed Europe’s room for maneuver in battling the contagion, which threatens to pitch the country into default, rattle the banking system, infect Spain and Italy and tip the world economy into recession.

The complete blueprint won’t come together until a summit in two days, giving German Chancellor Angela Merkel time to go back to Berlin to brief her lawmakers and seek their approval for the next steps. Like yesterday, it will start with all 27 EU leaders before the 17 heads of euro economies gather on their own.

‘Options are Converging’

“Work is going well on the banks, and on the fund and the possibilities of using the fund, the options are converging,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy told reporters at the Brussels summit yesterday. “On the question of Greece, things are moving along. We’re not there yet.”

The euro rose as much as 0.4 percent to $1.3951, trading at $1.3897 at 9:49 a.m. in Berlin. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.5 percent to 240.12, its second day of gains.

The mayhem began in Greece in October 2009, when an unexpected cash shortfall left the new government unable to pay for its election promises. Since then, 256 billion euros of bailouts have failed to stem the tide, which rattled France this month, prompting Standard & Poor’s to warn the country may lose its top sovereign credit rating.

Expressing concern over the potential impact on their nations, world leaders including President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao have stepped up calls for Europe to defuse the risk to the global economy.

European leaders reached the halfway mark of their marathon to end the debt crisis, outlining plans to aid banks and ruling out tapping the European Central Bank’s balance sheet to boost the region’s rescue fund.

Stocks advanced and the euro rose after Europe’s 13th crisis-management summit in 21 months, which also explored how to strengthen the International Monetary Fund’s role. The leaders excluded a forced restructuring of Greek debt, sticking with the tactic of enticing bondholders to accept losses to help restore the country’s finances. China said today that it had “faith” in the European Union’s ability to tackle the crisis.

“It seems that progress has been made over the weekend to get to a ‘comprehensive package,’ but it is unlikely to be a bold one,” said Juergen Michels at Citigroup Inc. in London. “There remain many open questions.”

Greece’s deteriorating finances have narrowed Europe’s room for maneuver in battling the contagion, which threatens to pitch the country into default, rattle the banking system, infect Spain and Italy and tip the world economy into recession.

The complete blueprint won’t come together until a summit in two days, giving German Chancellor Angela Merkel time to go back to Berlin to brief her lawmakers and seek their approval for the next steps. Like yesterday, it will start with all 27 EU leaders before the 17 heads of euro economies gather on their own.

‘Options are Converging’

“Work is going well on the banks, and on the fund and the possibilities of using the fund, the options are converging,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy told reporters at the Brussels summit yesterday. “On the question of Greece, things are moving along. We’re not there yet.”

The euro rose as much as 0.4 percent to $1.3951, trading at $1.3897 at 9:49 a.m. in Berlin. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.5 percent to 240.12, its second day of gains.

The mayhem began in Greece in October 2009, when an unexpected cash shortfall left the new government unable to pay for its election promises. Since then, 256 billion euros of bailouts have failed to stem the tide, which rattled France this month, prompting Standard & Poor’s to warn the country may lose its top sovereign credit rating.

Expressing concern over the potential impact on their nations, world leaders including President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao have stepped up calls for Europe to defuse the risk to the global economy.

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Asia Trades Higher

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Most Asian equity markets gained sharply on Monday after European leaders indicated progress on a plan to resolve the region’s debt crisis and preliminary data showed Chinese manufacturing is improving. Full Story here

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“WE CAN’T WAIT FOR LAWMAKERS TO ACT”: Obama Takes Law-Making Into His Own Hands

With his jobs plan stymied in Congress by Republican opposition, President Obama on Monday will begin a series of executive-branch actions to confront housing, education and other economic problems over the coming months, heralded by a new mantra: “We can’t wait” for lawmakers to act.

According to an administration official, Mr. Obama will kick off his new offensive in Las Vegas, ground zero of the housing bust, by promoting new rules for federally guaranteed mortgages so that more homeowners, those with little or no equity in their homes, can refinance and avert foreclosure.

And Wednesday in Denver, the official said, Mr. Obama will announce policy changes to ease college graduates’ repayment of federal loans, seeking to alleviate the financial concerns of students considering college at a time when states are raising tuition.

The president’s announcements will bookend a three-day Western trip during which he also will hold fund-raising events in the two cities — both Nevada and Colorado are election battlegrounds — as well as in Los Angeles and San Francisco.

The “We can’t wait” campaign is a new phase in Mr. Obama’s so-far unsuccessful effort — punctuated until now by his cries of “Pass this bill!” on the stump — to pressure Republicans to support the job creation package he proposed after Labor Day. It comes after unanimous votes by Senate Republicans in the past week to block the plan; House Republican leaders have refused to put the measure to a vote.

Polls show overwhelming support for pieces of the $447 billion package, which includes expanded tax cuts for workers and employers, and spending for infrastructure projects and for state aid to keep teachers and emergency responders at work. But Republicans oppose provisions in Mr. Obama’s plan that would offset the costs with higher taxes on the wealthy.

Should the bill ultimately fail, Democrats believe they at least have the better political argument, and they vow to exploit what they call the Republicans’ obstruction in the 2012 campaign.

Yet any political benefit would be small consolation for the White House, given the forecasts of nonpartisan economists that without such a stimulus plan, the economy is likely to relapse into recession next year just as the president faces re-election.

“The only way we can truly attack our economic challenges is with bold, bipartisan action in Congress,” said Dan Pfeiffer, Mr. Obama’s communications director. “The president will continue to pressure Congressional Republicans to put country before party and pass the American Jobs Act, but he believes we cannot wait, so he will act where they won’t.”

Privately, some Republicans worry that they could suffer from that line of attack. On Sunday the Senate Republican minority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, offered an alternate narrative, saying that Mr. Obama, for all his complaints about Republican opposition, had given little prominence to his signing of three free-trade agreements that won bipartisan approval this month.

“They’re ashamed to mention any of the things that they do with Republicans because it steps on their story line,” Mr. McConnell said on the CNN program “State of the Union.” “Their story line is that there must be some villain out there who’s keeping this administration from succeeding.”

By resorting to executive actions, using his wide-ranging authority to oversee federal laws and agencies, Mr. Obama seems intent on showing that he is not powerless in the face of Republican opposition but is trying to strengthen the economy and help Americans in trouble.

Aides said Mr. Obama would announce at least one initiative each week through the rest of the year, including steps to help returning veterans and small businesses. Yet the officials acknowledge that the coming policy changes, executive orders and agency actions are generally less far-reaching than the legislative proposals now before Congress.

Recent executive actions provide examples of what is to come.

READ MORE HERE 

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The Tipping Point – America is Back, Baby!!!

By , International Business Editor

5:53PM BST 23 Oct 2011

World power swings back to America

The American phoenix is slowly rising again. Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy. Manufacturing will have closed the labour gap with China in a clutch of key industries. The current account might even be in surplus.

Assumptions that the Great Republic must inevitably spiral into economic and strategic decline – so like the chatter of the late 1980s, when Japan was in vogue – will seem wildly off the mark by then.

Telegraph readers already know about the “shale gas revolution” that has turned America into the world’s number one producer of natural gas, ahead of Russia.

Less known is that the technology of hydraulic fracturing – breaking rocks with jets of water – will also bring a quantum leap in shale oil supply, mostly from the Bakken fields in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas, and other reserves across the Mid-West.

“The US was the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth last year, with a net 395,000 barrels per day (b/d),” said Francisco Blanch from Bank of America, comparing the Dakota fields to a new North Sea.

Total US shale output is “set to expand dramatically” as fresh sources come on stream, possibly reaching 5.5m b/d by mid-decade. This is a tenfold rise since 2009.

The US already meets 72pc of its own oil needs, up from around 50pc a decade ago.

“The implications of this shift are very large for geopolitics, energy security, historical military alliances and economic activity. As US reliance on the Middle East continues to drop, Europe is turning more dependent and will likely become more exposed to rent-seeking behaviour from oligopolistic players,” said Mr Blanch.

Meanwhile, the China-US seesaw is about to swing the other way. Offshoring is out, ‘re-inshoring’ is the new fashion.

“Made in America, Again” – a report this month by Boston Consulting Group – said Chinese wage inflation running at 16pc a year for a decade has closed much of the cost gap. China is no longer the “default location” for cheap plants supplying the US.

A “tipping point” is near in computers, electrical equipment, machinery, autos and motor parts, plastics and rubber, fabricated metals, and even furniture.

“A surprising amount of work that rushed to China over the past decade could soon start to come back,” said BCG’s Harold Sirkin.

The gap in “productivity-adjusted wages” will narrow from 22pc of US levels in 2005 to 43pc (61pc for the US South) by 2015. Add in shipping costs, reliability woes, technology piracy, and the advantage shifts back to the US.

The list of “repatriates” is growing. Farouk Systems is bringing back assembly of hair dryers to Texas after counterfeiting problems; ET Water Systems has switched its irrigation products to California; Master Lock is returning to Milwaukee, and NCR is bringing back its ATM output to Georgia. NatLabs is coming home to Florida.

Boston Consulting expects up to 800,000 manufacturing jobs to return to the US by mid-decade, with a multiplier effect creating 3.2m in total. This would take some sting out of the Long Slump.

As Philadelphia Fed chief Sandra Pianalto said last week, US manufacturing is “very competitive” at the current dollar exchange rate. Whether intended or not, the Fed’s zero rates and $2.3 trillion printing blitz have brought matters to an abrupt head for China.

Fed actions confronted Beijing with a Morton’s Fork of ugly choices: revalue the yuan, or hang onto the mercantilist dollar peg and import a US monetary policy that is far too loose for a red-hot economy at the top of the cycle. Either choice erodes China’s wage advantage. The Communist Party chose inflation.

Foreign exchange effects are subtle. They take a long to time play out as old plant slowly runs down, and fresh investment goes elsewhere. Yet you can see the damage to Europe from an over-strong euro in foreign direct investment (FDI) data.

Flows into the EU collapsed by 63p from 2007 to 2010 (UNCTAD data), and fell by 77pc in Italy. Flows into the US rose by 5pc.

Volkswagen is investing $4bn in America, led by its Chattanooga Passat plant. Korea’s Samsung has begun a $20bn US investment blitz. Meanwhile, Intel, GM, and Caterpillar and other US firms are opting to stay at home rather than invest abroad.

Europe has only itself to blame for the current “hollowing out” of its industrial base. It craved its own reserve currency, without understanding how costly this “exorbitant burden” might prove to be.

China and the rising reserve powers have rotated a large chunk of their $10 trillion stash into EMU bonds to reduce their dollar weighting. The result is a euro too strong for half of EMU.

The European Central Bank has since made matters worse (for Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France) by keeping rates above those of the US, UK, and Japan. That has been a deliberate policy choice. It let real M1 deposits in Italy contract at a 7pc annual rate over the summer. May it live with the consequences.

The trade-weighted dollar has been sliding for a decade, falling 37pc since 2001. This roughly replicates the post-Plaza slide in the late 1980s, which was followed – with a lag – by 3pc of GDP shrinkage in the current account deficit. The US had a surplus by 1991.

Charles Dumas and Diana Choyleva from Lombard Street Research argue that this may happen again in their new book “The American Phoenix”.

The switch in advantage to the US is relative. It does not imply a healthy US recovery. The global depression will grind on as much of the Western world tightens fiscal policy and slowly purges debt, and as China deflates its credit bubble.

Yet America retains a pack of trump cards, and not just in sixteen of the world’s top twenty universities.

Read the rest here.

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Emerging Creditor Markets: Euro Zone Fund May Draw on China, Brazil

The mostly likely method for leveraging the euro zone’s bailout fund involves using it to provide bond insurance while combining its firepower with a special purpose vehicle drawing in funds from China or Brazil, European Union officials said.

After a summit of EU leaders on Sunday to try to come up with a comprehensive solution to the crisis, officials indicated that twinning two of the options for scaling up the 440 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility might end up securing broad backing, and the summit’s conclusions reflected that.

One official indicated that the special purpose vehicle could be attached to the EFSF itself, while others said it would involve the IMF. The options will have to be narrowed down by another summit on Wednesday. But Sunday’s summit conclusions referred to the IMF as a possible partner.

“The G20 should ensure that the IMF has adequate resources to fulfill its systemic responsibilities and should explore possible contributions to the IMF from countries with large external surpluses,” the conclusions said.

Export-giant China, which has the world’s biggest foreign currency reserves, is often referred to in G20 statements as an external surplus country. It has a sovereign wealth fund managing assets of over $230 billion.

READ THE REST HERE 

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ARAB SPRING DEMOCRACY: New Libya Unveils 15th Century Throwback Strict Islamic Law

Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, the chairman of the National Transitional Council and de fact president, had already declared that Libyan laws in future would have Sharia, the Islamic code, as its “basic source”.

But that formulation can be interpreted in many ways – it was also the basis of Egypt’s largely secular constitution under President Hosni Mubarak, and remains so after his fall.

Mr Abdul-Jalil went further, specifically lifting immediately, by decree, one law from Col. Gaddafi’s era that he said was in conflict with Sharia – that banning polygamy.

In a blow to those who hoped to see Libya’s economy integrate further into the western world, he announced that in future bank regulations would ban the charging of interest, in line with Sharia. “Interest creates disease and hatred among people,” he said.

Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates, and other Muslim countries, have pioneered the development of Sharia-compliant banks which charge fees rather than interest for loans but they normally run alongside western-style banks.

SOURCE

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