Oil Rendered Worthless; Stocks Soar

I’m over the DO debacle and ready to get back to work. I bought 5 stocks this afternoon, some in REITs, some in mortgage — maybe a retailer and a casino. Who knows? The point being, I am doing the exact opposite of what my instincts tell me to do — The Costanza Trade. We’ve all been there, doing the complete opposite because logic has been suspended, making a fortune in the process. In this instance, oil is down 22% for the day to $13 and markets are +300 like NO BIG FUCKING DEAL. The buying is so obscene, many oil stocks are up too.

How do we render such madness?

We don’t and we do not get mad at it.

Capitalism as we knew it never existed. The facade of free markets was exactly that, a marketing ploy to promote Empire America. What we have here is clear to see and it’s ugly and absurd. But why should I rebel and sell stocks short, only to harm myself?

I’ll play along, as long as I can, sashaying (no homo) in and out of stocks like a fucking Space Alien Magician (SAM), making profits and friends along the way.

I’m confident the market will run higher into the close. Be careful with your idiot short positions.

Since DO is HALTED FOR FUCKING TRADE, I am unable to sell it. This is like one of those fairy tales when the greedy bear stuck his paw in the honey pot one too many times and it got cut off for him. While the loss in DO is very manageable, for it was a standard 5% position, it’s disheartening to have it happen and equally disheartening to have it fucking halted all day without given the chance to trade out of it.

That being said, I imagine it will open DOWN 60% — which is a 300bps hit for me.

Meanwhile I liquidated everything else but one stock in my portfolio — now 90% cash.

$CAR +9.6%
$NMRK +11.7%
$FL +6.9%
$DRH +2.5%
($BORR -6.5%)

After everything is said and done, given today’s market gains, I stand to lose less than 2% today. See pal, I am even winning while losing. I’ll make that 2% up real quick and much much more and then DRIVE this gravity hammer into the heads of ALL oil longs in America. I hate you and your wanton greed is infectious and you should be stopped.

I am through with overnight oil holds, since they’re all subject to a surprise chapter 11. Plus anyway, the market is long in the tooth now and destined for the junkyard.

Looks like I will open for trade tomorrow FUCKED — since I have a 5% position in DO and she just filed for bankruptcy. WLL filed for bankruptcy and is up 350% since then; but usually a filing is met with some initial selling before the details are hashed out. It seems to me, this bankruptcy might be the one to open the floodgates to a tsunami of filings in the weeks to come — rendering the oil patch uninvestable.

With bankruptcies, you will see credit downgrades and mark downs at banks. We are still trading in fantasy land and I expect traders to buy dips until reality starts to seep in.

When should that happen?

About a month after the global economy re-opens we should start to get some estimates for revenues and earnings. Without imposing my bias, I think it’s fair to say the balance of 2020 will be decided by the after-shocks of COVID-19 and if it re-emerges following the end of quarantine. The next drop will be large and catch many by surprise.

Presently, we are -35 NASDAQS now and crude is stable at $16.55. I read a note by Goldman today which predicted another rout in WTI futures, possibly under $0. I also read that Banks of China clients took more than a $1b hit on the negative $37 WTI drama of two weeks ago.

Whatever happens tomorrow, I enter the day at 65% cash, which provides me with a lot go options — should I need to average down and implement a Martingale Stratagem to escape a poorly placed trade. I suspect markets will want to trade higher, but will eventually sink into the pits of hell. I closed out my shorts Friday because of the collapse in the VIX, suggestive that investors are normalizing. This of course means the next crash will catch many off-guard again. I of course do not know when it will happen, only that is will happen some time in 2020.

I’ll spare you my swing trader stratagems for a day and present you with a must watch interview from 84 year old, legendary, Carl “fuck you give me three seats on your board” Icahn.

ZH covered this in detail, essentially what we’re talking about here is the complete destruction of the retail mall in America.

It’s Carl vs. Ackman — the final battle.

Catamites busted loose today and made a fucking mockery of the market. If you ever thought Wall Street would lose, recent events prove that LITERALLY NOTHING can stop the buying. The global economy is in lock-down, oil is a worthless piece of shit, hotel vacancies are north of 90%, yet stocks are RUNNING towards RECORD HIGHS. I know, we’re down 10% or so for the year, a mere rounding error in the big scheme of things. Because of this, I closed out my inverses and went long a SUNDRY of highly degenerative securities in the efforts to produce WANTON amounts of profits come Monday morning.

I cannot tell you said securities, as I am sworn to secrecy. Those are for members of Exodus alone.

What I can tell you is that we’ve removed ALL ADS from iBC — because fuck ads and I heard your complaints. Now that I’ve removed them, it is YOUR DUTY as loyal readers to procure and purchase iBankCoin merchandise, in order to keep the servers humming along at a brisk rate.

My last 12 trades.

(FAZ -3.8%)
PE +12.9%
TECL +3.6%
SQ +2.5%
KL +5.6%
AU +5.1%
BYND +2.7%
LPI +31.5%
NUGT +3%
RIOT +9.7%
(FAZ -3.4%)
(TZA -6%)

Each position is equal weighted at 5% of my account — but TZA was a 10%er. Sure the loss sucks — but we move on. We do not wait around for shit to happen — we’re moving forward all the time.

Have a great weekend, fucked faces.

Travel is down 99% according to Discovery Financial; but that should stop stocks from shoe-stringing the fuck higher. I know that sounded really salty, but I am not salty about markets — but because Exodus is presently down. While we work to get it back up, likely brought down by the recent influx of new members, I’ll throw in my 2 cents about the futures direction of markets.

We’ll get the melt up and the feel good moments from now up until the economy re-opens. And then reality will sink in and forbearance will morph into foreclosures and businesses will close for good. Then and only then will investors seek comfort in SPY puts. Until we’re out of the black box of fantasy island  trading, expect more of the same.

I sold RIOT for +9.7%, another overnight trade. Here are my net results for today’s overnight trades.

LPI +31.5%
NUGT +3%
RIOT +9.7%

But that’s not the whole story. I have a double sized position in TZA and some FAZ, which needs to be dealt with. Do I hold into a VIX collapse over the weekend and literally hope for downside action, or do I clean the slate and walk into Monday a man of large balls and panache?

You’ll find out within the hour.

On the issue of the VIX index, she has collapsed by 11% today and has steadily gone lower since the bottom. Today’s drop is rather dramatic, suggestive that traders are feeling comfy again. I have to admit, this is the most normal thing I’ve seen in weeks and it points to normalcy, which under the circumstances is very good for markets.

It gets boring for you, but never for me — since I am the one winning. Here were are on a rather moribund and plain day and BAM! big dicked wins out from the gates.

Overnight sales.

LPI +31.5%
NUGT +3%

I could’ve sold for higher on the LPI, but settled for +31.5%. The trade was in fact easy and I would teach you my methods, IF I was a god damned teacher. I do not teach anyone how to do this, but merely head out there in the morning hours of the sea and procure fish for everyone else to eat.

I am a MASTER FISHERMAN and that’s all there is to it.

Presently, I am short with 75% cash, dialed the fuck down after a long week of back and forth. About a week ago I ended a 36 for 37 winning streak with some losses. I am now 9 for my last 9 and do not intend to ever lose money on a trade again. I’ll just win them all.

In case you’re wondering about the market today, let these NEW iBC MERCH store items serve as a reminder.

It was a delightful session, for me anyways. Markets shot out the gates like a cannon — thrusting all of the little people across the field — strewn and lazy, tired from the chop. They had all forgotten, markets did not bottom on Fridays.

Mid-afternoon news struck the tape and it raped everyone who was overweight and leaning long. The news was Gilead’s drug is NOT as good as people thought, similar to Dr. Trump’s hydroxy. The point is, the COVID-19 is an incurable scourge that was designed to decimate the elderly and the infirmed, the sort of eugenics the nazis could have only dreamed of. Now we are seeing it live and in action and there is really nothing to be done about it but sit inside of our homes and wait for the winds to pass.

I took today’s tape to DOUBLE DOWN on my shorts, book gains in gold and a day trade in BYND.

Here were my results.

SQ +2.5%
KL +5.6%
AU +5.1%
BYND +2.7%

Into tomorrow, I am 15% short in leveraged ETFs, long some gold, a sub $1 oil stock, a crypto proxy play, and some tinned foil. Cash position is 65%.

Our castles were built with sand and this Gilead news just washed them away.

BREAKING: Data on Gilead’s remdesivir, released by accident, show no benefit for #coronavirus patients https://t.co/rstX36a7lA via @statnews These are data from the China study. $GILD

— Adam Feuerstein (@adamfeuerstein) April 23, 2020

Markets went from +350 to negative in a blink of an eye and then it rebounded and then it dropped again. Presently, the Dow is +100, Nasdaq +50, but people are nervous. They do not want to get HOOKED. Having said that, I would not be surprised to see markets rally again — because NEW FUCKING HOMES NEED TO BE BUILT and people NEED their 7,000 sq ft homes and the 30 million people now without work get literally FUCK THEIR OWN FACES.

So will markets rally back towards the highs? Maybe. Should they? NO!

Nevertheless, I sold out of SQ today for +2.5% and doubled down on my short and have kept my gold, otherwise I am perfectly pleasant and EAGERLY awaiting to allocate some cash.

The destruction of WTI and Brent appears to have been a mechanical failure, caused by some hedge fund or some institution (s) getting burned out of the market thru forced selling. Now with the seller(s) out of the way, the price is normalizing again, likely towards the low $20s for WTI, high $20s for Brent. WTI is higher by a staggering 30% today and as you would imagine, traders are going bananas inside of the oil patch — bidding up companies that are most certainly bankrupted 100%+ for the session.

My only question, is it over?

Having seen these types of runs before, I would bet IT IS NOT OVER. My cowardice position in this tape, both long and short, both hot and cold, has left me flat for the day. I am sitting with a lot of cash and I am enjoying the quiet hours of the morning without having to panic about losing my shit in a volatile swing.

HOWEVER, there are two things I am going to do today.

1. Double down on my short the market bets.
2. Play a very cheap and tawdry oil in an attempt for outsized gains.

Why?

Because oil is where the wall of worry is and where the hot money is flowing to now — like it or not.

Oh and by the way, another 4 million + filed unemployment, bringing the total job losses in the US to 26 million over the past month.