iBankCoin

Oil Patch Enters Crazy Town; Traders Bid Up Trash in Reflation Mania

The destruction of WTI and Brent appears to have been a mechanical failure, caused by some hedge fund or some institution (s) getting burned out of the market thru forced selling. Now with the seller(s) out of the way, the price is normalizing again, likely towards the low $20s for WTI, high $20s for Brent. WTI is higher by a staggering 30% today and as you would imagine, traders are going bananas inside of the oil patch — bidding up companies that are most certainly bankrupted 100%+ for the session.

My only question, is it over?

Having seen these types of runs before, I would bet IT IS NOT OVER. My cowardice position in this tape, both long and short, both hot and cold, has left me flat for the day. I am sitting with a lot of cash and I am enjoying the quiet hours of the morning without having to panic about losing my shit in a volatile swing.

HOWEVER, there are two things I am going to do today.

  1. Double down on my short the market bets.
  2. Play a very cheap and tawdry oil in an attempt for outsized gains.

Why?

Because oil is where the wall of worry is and where the hot money is flowing to now — like it or not.

Oh and by the way, another 4 million + filed unemployment, bringing the total job losses in the US to 26 million over the past month.

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14 comments

  1. alty

    Not sure how some of your readers ended up on IBankCoin. I think they were looking for IAmRightMarketIsWrong.

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    • tjnyt

      I have a knack for picking tops and bottoms, especially bottoms, otherwise a very bad trader. I am here to observe the psychology of the group.

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  2. Dave Portnoy

    Grampa Fly lost his crystal ball, he was pin point accurate in his predictions 2009-2010.
    Now is mostly frustration. Soon he will be assimilated to zerohedge

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  3. soonerxii

    surprised HYG is only up like a buck

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  4. purdy

    Did CNBC’s having Chamath Palihapitiya on for a second lengthy interview signal a trial balloon? …or perhaps a debate among the ticks?

    Tick: “Should we …must we ..sprinkle big money on the eaters in order to avoid social unrest …as well as to create the inflation that will perhaps make the eaters feel that they got paid.”

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  5. numbersgame

    Did somebody just sneeze? Markets going crazy

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  6. spinthathamster

    What happened? Some hedge fund manager just read the news about unemployment in usa and production in europe, sober for the first time in 5 weeks?

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    • edge

      I see no info. This market acts like it’s ready to blow up.

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      • spinthathamster

        Volume has been very low for 2 days. Only hfts, fed and some random sellers around. That’s why it can creep ever higher and that’s probably also why it can go down 100 sp points in a minute if some fund suddenly dumps a couple of shares.

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  7. wolfdaddy

    Fly- you should consider adding slim apped to your IBC apparel. Hot seller

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  8. heckler

    News leaked that GILD is full of shit. Don’t get HOOKED FAGS

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  9. roguewave

    I am super pussified right now. I’m scared of the stock market volatility.
    I’m sitting it out in the calm harbor of the old man crypto market.

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