Travel is down 99% according to Discovery Financial; but that should stop stocks from shoe-stringing the fuck higher. I know that sounded really salty, but I am not salty about markets — but because Exodus is presently down. While we work to get it back up, likely brought down by the recent influx of new members, I’ll throw in my 2 cents about the futures direction of markets.
We’ll get the melt up and the feel good moments from now up until the economy re-opens. And then reality will sink in and forbearance will morph into foreclosures and businesses will close for good. Then and only then will investors seek comfort in SPY puts. Until we’re out of the black box of fantasy island trading, expect more of the same.
I sold RIOT for +9.7%, another overnight trade. Here are my net results for today’s overnight trades.
LPI +31.5%
NUGT +3%
RIOT +9.7%
But that’s not the whole story. I have a double sized position in TZA and some FAZ, which needs to be dealt with. Do I hold into a VIX collapse over the weekend and literally hope for downside action, or do I clean the slate and walk into Monday a man of large balls and panache?
You’ll find out within the hour.
On the issue of the VIX index, she has collapsed by 11% today and has steadily gone lower since the bottom. Today’s drop is rather dramatic, suggestive that traders are feeling comfy again. I have to admit, this is the most normal thing I’ve seen in weeks and it points to normalcy, which under the circumstances is very good for markets.
EXODUS COLLAPSES; EVERYTHING IS BACK TO NORMAL
Sell all, come into Monday a fresh man
Exodus 500 error. Black Hats on the move
Bogged!
Exodus screen is blank… Second time today… ???
Back up…
Crude futures are getting killed again today. So naturally finance writers – exhausted from working on their movie script late into last night no doubt – are all writing Friday pieces claiming that oil is up today.
The spot is up. Literally one month is up. Every other month in the chain is bleeding out.
Same thing in the VIX: May *futures* are 10% higher than they were last Friday.
I guess we see want we want to see.
I did close out my GILD postion earlier, because last night I rememebred waht I often forget: in the stock amrket, reality is less important than belief.
Markets rocket up on 125 patient subsample, with no *documented* results
Documented death rate is higher with 158 patients than with 78 pateint control, market drops then recovers
Market rise on Hydrochroloriquine study that doesn’t not factor 3 patients that get transferrred to ICU, nor the pateitn that dies. Drug alter proved ineffecit,ve market doesn’t care.
No one important wants to be neutral or short going into the weekend. Can you blame them? The panic related to the virus is over for good. The uncertainty (cause of the sell off) has diminished.
It isn’t that the *actaul* uncertanity has has chagned at all. Companies are pulling 2020 forecasts left and right.
Also,
– oil futures keep dropping;
– VIX futures aren’t dropping,
– HYG is not participating in the 2week rally, and
– 10-yr bonds were just 1 pip from making an ***all-time closing low** this week.
Did you notice that? Probably not. You’re educated enoguh to know the Dow is only 30 stocks and not that relevant, but the pros know bonds markets are more imporatn than even the mighty S&P. V-shaped recovery? Not what Smart Moeny is betting on.
This isn’t an end of uncertainty, it si the beginnign of complacency (again). Just push out the time frame of my put spreads.
What just happenned? Was somevody reading my post?
Exodus slimed for hours
Fed bucks for everyone
If that is the metric to celebrate I wish you luck.
The little VIX needle on the charts is only just beginning life at a few weeks of age.