Entered and Exited a Bad Soiree — Heading Back in Again, However

This morning, after feeling my oats by CEMENTING a 20 for 20 winning streak, I dove headlong into the mortgage space, errantly. I did so with a God like complex, chest filled with hubris — only to be quickly dispatched out and over a barrel. The newly minted positions quickly began to take on water. Now a novice trader, like you, would hold and feel and feel some more — but I knew if shit went sideways tomorrow, all of my efforts, all of my feeeeeeeeelings, would be hurt miserably. So I sold and began the hunt.

The results.

(ALLY -3.7%)
(TEX -3.4%)
(MITT -6.3%)
(IVR -4.2%)
(MFA -2.2%)
(RWT -1.4%)

Rounding errors.

I then had a bias of selling short, since I was wrong about my picks — my god the entire market must be collapsed. WRONG AGAIN. I found strength overtly concentrated in mega cap tech, SAAS, utilities, gold, and healthcare.

That’s where I am positioned now. I do so in spite of my feelings. I wanted to sell short and burn the world down for ruining my winning streak. It was going to last forever and I was going to come on here and boast and attract so many new members for Exodus — the fucking servers would crash permanently and I’d have to call the national guard to get it back up and running again. Maybe next time. There’s always next time, right?

So now I toil and I watch, BIG ASSED CASH position, eagerly eager to wait for a trend shift so that I can apply bearish positions and look smarter than everyone else again, instead of riding in the bus with everyone else.

Oil is up a super casual 18% this morning, back to levels of March. Brent is over $30 and everything appears to be very normal again. The whole sojourn into negative territory appears to have been a blip and without the pumps pumping and the Saudis scheming, oil is destined for extreme greatness. I’ve got to admit, I did not see this coming.

WUNDERBAR!

The Nasdaq is +125, the 10yr is selling off — now 0.666%. Heck, even natural gas is up more than 6%. Nevertheless, and in spite of all of this splendour, my fishing vessel came in this morning and I sold all of my fish. No big deal. Do not panic. I can always get more fish.

This morning’s catch.

ZM +3.7%
DOCU +2.3%
ETSY +6.8%
FVRR +1.4%
MTCH +2.1%
NNVC +5.6%
ROKU +3.5%
TREX +11.2%
ZM +1.1%

I am now 20 for my last 20 and probably will never lose in a trade again. I cannot lose; therefore, I will not.

Market got real slow like molasses mid-afternoon and I saw it as clear as the day is long. Shorts ran out of steam and imploded, leaving room for retards to move in with margin accounts. We ran +100 NASDAQS since then and I positioned in 50% allocation — all trades and theories posted in real time in Exodus.

Today’s catch.

DRIP +1.8%
SOXS +3%
FAZ +6.2%
DRV +5.8%
NUGT +6.2%

If I didn’t have an army of 1,000+ traders to see me doing in real time, no one would believe me. See you tomorrow on the opening spike.

Stocks opened down sharply, rallied, and then flatlined for hours. In the meantime, there is an under-current of strength found in tech and biotech.

Most of the weakness is concentrated in industrials and finance — setting up what I believe will be a niche trade. I just went long 9 stocks, heavily weighted towards tech. I do not have shorts — because dull markets usually succumb to bull-tards. The day is young and the trend can change from now until the bell; but I doubt it.

Why get mad when you can just close out positions and try again later? Sure, we all wanted stocks to drop 4% at the open, just like Europe today — but it’s not happening. So we have a few options.

1. Stick around and hope shit works out.
2. Double down our bets.
3. Book gains and forgo intra-day nonsense and try again later.

I chose the latter. He were my weekend hold results.

DRIP +1.8%
SOXS +3%
FAZ +6.2%
DRV +5.8%
NUGT +6.2%

Small gains — nothing to boast about. But it’s better than not winning at all. Plus, there is the added bonus of EXTENDING MY LIFE by not sitting here and lamenting over stock prices ‘misbehaving.’

The Nasdaq is down 35, the Dow -300. It doesn’t look interested in plunging yet. Maybe later.

Whether you’re bullish or bearish the prevailing and indisputable trend for 2020 has been to close out overnight trades in the morning and reapply them near the close. Even during the worst spates, it is rare to see markets down more than 3 consecutive days. If we gap down tomorrow, I’ll be closing out my shorts. I might hold onto my gold — because hedging, and if we head into 3:30pm down more than 500, I will likely go long.

The allure of getting short into tomorrow’s dip will be immense and we might be heading much lower; but these things work their way lower in increments. Unless we get a massive catalyst to the downside, such as no drug can beat COVID-19 and we are not going to open up the economy until August, I suspect we will consolidate recent gains until the economy reopens and then people realize how fucked we truly are — sending stocks back to the lows.

Futures are off 275, Nasdaq -75 with gains in gold and stark losses in WTI. I am not going to get excited about my prospects until 6am, since these overnight moves are suspect.

I get a lot of emails asking me to describe position sizing, methodology and/or process by which I partake to trade well. There isn’t one way to trade. We all have our tools and instincts and methods, none are better than the next. The only thing that matters is the net result. I have found, through years of trial and error, the only way to permit my natural talents to shine is by preventing blow ups. I had been prone to blow ups because I like to take outsized risk. A long time ago, I stopped trading speculative stocks in an effort to prevent large drawdowns. But that was not the remedy for my disease. Position sizing was and is at the core of all trading errors. You can be the best trader in the world and get caught flat in a bad news release or black swan/unforeseen event and get washed out of the market.

This event will break your confidence and make you believe you’re not a good trader — because, after all, you blew up. But the only reason why you blew up had nothing to do with picking stocks. It was the sizing of those positions that was wrong.

I do not think people should trade with less than $50k in their account. You can get away with $25k, but nothing less than that. If you do not have $25k, build up your account over time and be patient. Reason being, pikers tend to minimize their account values as ‘nothing’ and gamble with it, in a foolish attempt to ‘turn nothing into something.’

My position sizes are always 5% with a maximum of 15% and the max is rarely taken — only during periods of high conviction. Losses are more or less stopped out at 10%, but more frequently much less than that. Each position should be considered every single day and if you would not want that position to be started today — it should be sold. I never trade with a bias, always malleable to the point that people think I’m crazy — long and short, sometimes both at the same time.

Lastly, and this is an important one, I never look at my account value and extrapolate cow-eyed plans for it — saying to myself ‘well if I can achieve these returns over the next 10 years, or 6 months, I will have X amount in my account.’ Fuck that. Most people fuck themselves by making plans with their money. They let gains or account sizes get to their heads and start to treat the money differently. If up big, you get cautious and trade like a pussy. If down big, you trade like an even bigger pussy. The size of the account should not affect your trading. You have rules and methods, stick to them.

On the issue of where the market is going next. We’ve had some really big gains the past month — up 50% or more in many industries. But stark losses still exist and we’re only one major leg lower from feeling the pangs of this shut down again.

We’ve had a nice symmetrical lift off the lows and now we’ve broken lower. Can we regain the trend line or have we started a new leg lower and resumption of the bear? Stay tuned.

I was honestly going to buy the close, for a sundry of reasons. Then I bore witness to the founder of Barstool Sports brag about being down a milly, attempting to leverage long more into the fires, and then knew what I was seeing was in fact an Easter Egg in the matrix — a clue in the simulation of what is to come.

I got a chip in the big game indeed. Down a million and cool as a cucumber. #ddtg #fintwit pic.twitter.com/UMb6qGiXna

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) May 1, 2020

Davey Day Trader wasn’t built for the Pinstriped Mix Matched Collar Wall Street game, but instead outfitted to bet on dog races and eat sloppy slices of pizza with homeless people to make the mob chuckle. Come Monday, the Orcs run wild again and they will EAT Mr. Portnoy’s fucking face. I have a high conviction in this and also long gold. Bear witness to NUGT closing at $66.6.

See you fuckers on Monday.

My trades for the week.

CAR +9.6%
NMRK +11.7%
FL +6.9%
DRH +2.5%
(BORR -6.5%)
AMC +23%
SKT +15.8%
KSS +13%
MITT +11%
MGM +3.9%
NYMT +1.9%
GOOS +1.3%
RRGB +18.6%
BLMN +15%
HA +15.6%
SIG +14.1%
KIM +7.3%
ELF +3.6%
LB +1.6%
XAN +4.2%
HUD +1.1%
MAC +2.1%
(ARI -2.4%)
(SABR -1%)
SPR +0.5%
(MIDD -4.5%)
(CSOD -1.7%)
(INMD -3.3%)
SOXS +9.1%
REYN +8.7%
FNGD +4.4% x3
FAZ +8.5%
DUST +8.6%
CODX +11.6%

Lots of downside pinaction for your pinheads today. All of you faggots were TALKING SHIT and now you’re not. See how the market works to humble you into submission?

I already had taken profits at the open on my fucking SHORTS — but then I parlayed 5% of my account into CODX for fun — and because I could. I just sold it for an 11.6% day trade. Very easy, very clean.

Going forward, we have a decision, don’t we? Will markets resume it’s nonsensical babbling higher, or will ORCS RUN WILD and fuck shit up?

Truthfully, it is rare to see markets down more than 2 days in a row, so the odds of you shorting into the hole and living to tell the tale are against you. Cautious men will sit this trade out, but I will not and will post my big ball’d positions in Exodus — after 3pm.

I placed a serious of MASTERFUL trades yesterday and now I am all out of them. Are you capable of trading like me? No, absolutely not — positively. Can I teach you how to trade well and with dignity? No, it’s not something that can be taught or learned. You either got it or you don’t.

That being said, I had been building my 3x short FANG position over the past week, having averaged down 3 times to reduce my basis. It was an endeavor, but I ended up with a 15% position up 4.4%, instead of a single sized position down 15%, which is where I would’ve been as of yesterday.

Here are today’s fish.

SOXS +9.1%
REYN +8.7%
FNGD +4.4% x3
FAZ +8.5%
DUST +8.6%

I am still holding DO in bankruptcy and the balance in cash, or 95%. Markets are off more than 450, Nasdaq nearly 200. Oil is up 2.2% and I suspect all sorts of fuckery will ensue. But here is the truth, so listen to me very quietly. Intra-day moves are for asshats. Play the close and the opening rip or dip and then fuck off. If you’re interested in pressing shorts here — GOOD LUCK. The way they have this market wired, you’ll blow up. I made my money and now I will circumvent my estate and drink some coffee, black — never with any sugar.