Does This Look Like a Market Ready to Drop?

I’ve always been schitzo when discussing markets, so bear with me. Let’s just forget about the whole depression aspect to this economy and only base trades by price action. Does this look like a market topping or about to head for another leg up?

And the top rated stocks in Exodus. Lots of virus related names in there, including a position of mine CODX.

If you sit there with your Austrian book of economics and live by it, you’ll never make any money in this rigged game. You need to rethink your approach and ignore reasonable suggestions in favor of the obscene. While you may believe I am being tongue in cheek, I am not. I am merely a reflection in the calm waters of the Federal Reserve, water that liquifies everything and nourishes the soil for the crops to be eaten later.

Admittedly, I was reticent to press the envelope on very small cap stocks these past few days and the past week I reduced my potential returns by having too much cash and hedges. Nevertheless, I am in fact very much willing and able to careen recklessly into markets next week — in celebration of the great big titted opening of the global economy!

Mid afternoon I decided to cut loose my shorts. The breadth was too strong and my dreams of fire and brimstone were not be realized. It’s a hard thing giving up on a dream — but something it’s for the better. Heading into today I was all long and short at the same damn time, so I unwound a bunch of positions and rejiggered and then reshuffled and then did it again at the end of the day.

Here were the results.

CAR +5.3%
WORK +6.9%
PINS +4.65%
BE +0.8%
(HEAR -9%)
SPCE +4.1%
(DRV -4.4%)
(TZA -13.3%)
(FAZ -5.2%)
(DRIP -9.9%)
NGD +4%
GMAB +2.3%
FTCH +6.9%
SPLK +1.3%
GWRE +1.3%
SIG +12.1%
GLUU +5.6%

I closed the day roughly 35% cash, a gentleman by all sorts of measures, beaming with promise of fortune. Members of Exodus are making too much money and quite honestly our servers cannot handle the amount of new FUCKED FACES signing up, so until Stocklabs is launch, I might need to limit the amount of new subscribers. The situation, sadly, has become untenable. We are, quite honestly, making too much money to be interfered with by the unwashed public canaille.

Good day and I will see you on Monday inside Exodus — where fresh bowling balls get tossed at the heads of the innocent daily.

The Dow closed up nearly 500, WTI 5%. Who gives a shit anymore?

There isn’t a need for us to have an economy in order to oversee higher stock prices. This much has been made indelibly clear by the recent market events. As we spin higher and Joker-dance to new highs, bear in mind the futility of thinking about business cycles and how they affect stock prices and just know that the Fed will always backstop markets and print more money than you ever thought was possible — and all dips should and will be bought indefinitely for there is an incessant need and desire to crush the spirits and pockets of those betting against America.

America shed 20 million jobs in April — new record, upping the unemployment rate to around 15%. Dow futures are roaring, up more than 300.

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By the way, I am still long DO — up 23% today in bankruptcy. I held all of my inverses because markets did not accelerate into the close and oil weakened, REVERSING a 10% spike to close lower by 3%.

Gold was most impressive and I knew it would. I am positioned there with 10% 0f my assets.

Notable news: Paul Tudor Jones is long Bitcoin. I am long ETH and buy some every month.

Bottom line: I am fully invested, save 5% cash. My longs and shorts are designed to counter one another and I am hopeful to liquidate them and at some point DOUBLE DOWN on my shorts for my greatest and best trade of the year.

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Big spike off the jobless numbers. I stopped paying close attention to the numbers when they stopped meaning much to stock prices — but we’re in the ballpark of 33 million unemployed. My guess, we bottom unemployment at 66 million on the same day stocks hit record highs.

Everything is back to normal. WTI is +10% to over $26, gas prices at the pump and SOARING, SAAS stocks are hitting RECORD highs. Things are really great. Heck, look at that new IPO DraftKings, DKNG — filed for shares and still shot higher. Hell, there isn’t even a thing called sports anymore, but alas we are drumming higher.

Now if you’re a cynical fact based trader, this is frustrating beyond belief. I get it — but you cannot let reality get in the way of a little fantasy. This morning I sold some of the stocks I bought yesterday.

Here was my catch.

CWH +6.7%
JMIA +6.6%
NEWR +4.8%

I held onto my inverses, while added three additional stocks to my ledgers. I was strongly considering closing out my inverses and I might still do it — but it looks like the market is basing here and might trade sideways for a few hours or more. In the process of trying to find stocks to buy, I noticed only banks were keeping their highs, and select retail, so I ditched my plans to cover the shorts and be patient.

Option B would be to double down on them, which I really do not want to do. The trend is higher, so betting heavily on the short side would mean I was attempting to find a counter-trend. The timing on those trades are tricky.

As of now, I am 45% cash, with a blend of both long and shorts.

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Self-promotion over.

I added to shorts at the end of the day, to offset any losses I might endure in my longs. I have an interesting blend of longs and shorts. My shorts are via ETFs and longs are loser stocks with heavy short positions in it — subject to wild squeezes. I will most likely sell all of my longs in the coming days and prepare to be FULLY SHORT into the reopening of the American economy.

The news isn’t baked into the cake yet and people are feeling awfully giddy, when considering the fact you CANNOT FIND A FLIGHT FROM RALEIGH TO NJ even if you tried.

Look, the time to get long was when I maxed out of fear and sold my retirement account and quant. Those monies are still sitting stupidly in cash, accruing dust. My trading account is on fucking fire and I quite honestly am having the best of times trading these ranges.

Into tomorrow’s open, top picks are short banks, short oil.

Banks are weak. Commercial Re is weak. But tech is powerfully strong, as well as any low brow heavily shorted stock out there, sans the mortgage space. We have ourselves a classic dichotomy of the haves and have nots. Because of this, I executed several trades in Exodus today, while at the same time ADDING to my short position. I am attempting to place a delicate trade here and if I pull it off, I will pop champagne corks into the faces of my enemies.

Let the record show, Le Fly has been BOOZE FREE since early November — because he made a pledge, a personal challenge of sorts, to forgo BOOZE until Summer. Guess what? Summer fast approaches and I can hear the whiskey bottles clanking in my cabinets dying to breathe some fresh air.

I have an immense bias against this tape. But price action has forced my hand to be long. My shorts are in place — because they are mostly in the areas still weak in the market. The only way I will close out my shorts is of a fucking COVID-19 vaccine is discovered today.

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Big move in yields this morning, indicative of ‘normalization.’ Yesterday we saw the VIX collapse and oil sky rocket. Now bond yields are soaring. By the looks of it, things are getting back to normal again. Have a look at $BYND, +14% — because fake meat is better than no meat. Your summer grills will be filled with soy.

I am still short banks and CRE — because fuck stocks. And I am not a fan, dare I say, of sharply higher prices built off the backs of nothing. Very soon, chards of metal will be bustling throughout your city streets and I will, once again, reign victorious.

I am trying to get a flight into NJ during May and it’s not possible. The earliest I can fly is LATE JUNE — which tells me we’re entirely fucked. Rent is due. People are living out of soup cans again — and you’re over there buying soy burger stocks — pretending all is well. Well, I have news for you.

ALL IS NOT WELL and prices of these fucking stocks will soon get the idea. You just sit there and wait for it.

I’ll post an update around noon.

From all of the winship, a losing streak was born — bred out of hubris and comfort. With today’s mashing of the tape, I traded the intra-day and lost. My cardinal rule of only trading opening rips and dips was disobeyed; ergo, and this goes without saying, I was RINSED.

BEHOLD my new streak, 8 consecutive losses.

(ALLY -3.7%)
(TEX -3.4%)
(MITT -6.3%)
(IVR -4.2%)
(MFA -2.2%)
(RWT -1.4%)
(FNGU -1.95%)
(LABU -3.7%)

What do we make of all this? Entering today, I was 20 for 20 with the longest dick in the world. Now I am both flaccid and short in scope and girth. I closed the session net short — because fuck stocks. It was an angry traded, rooted in revenge. I have pent up hatred and it’s woefully unhealthy. Nevertheless, I press on amidst corona and all of the perfidy to shape a world in my image.

The Nasdaq closed up 100, halving its gains. This halving gave bears like me an entry into the colosseum and now I am fairly certain lions will soon be introduced and the gates closed. Lucky for me, I am 75% cash and will reintroduce the gentleman’s MARTINGALE STRATAGEM soon, in order to extricate myself from this malaise.