Oil is up a super casual 18% this morning, back to levels of March. Brent is over $30 and everything appears to be very normal again. The whole sojourn into negative territory appears to have been a blip and without the pumps pumping and the Saudis scheming, oil is destined for extreme greatness. I’ve got to admit, I did not see this coming.
WUNDERBAR!
The Nasdaq is +125, the 10yr is selling off — now 0.666%. Heck, even natural gas is up more than 6%. Nevertheless, and in spite of all of this splendour, my fishing vessel came in this morning and I sold all of my fish. No big deal. Do not panic. I can always get more fish.
This morning’s catch.
ZM +3.7%
DOCU +2.3%
ETSY +6.8%
FVRR +1.4%
MTCH +2.1%
NNVC +5.6%
ROKU +3.5%
TREX +11.2%
ZM +1.1%
I am now 20 for my last 20 and probably will never lose in a trade again. I cannot lose; therefore, I will not.
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IMO too late to buy energy names. The time was 3-4 weeks ago when the news was all about negative oil prices and yet the energy stocks were going up.
Watch them fade this AM with oil prices up. It’s a sign.
I did sell my remaining oil etfs this AM and will wait for a better day.
F this sitting in front of a computer.
Time for a nice bike ride.
i’d be surprised if XOM and CVX don’t hold up into their ex div dates in the coming week as neither cut their divy.
Indeed, agreed, late to the game for energy definitely at this point,
I bought approx a month ago in grotesque size, 2 decent names up 76 and 64%, but I’m gonna let it ride For now anyway,
I thought it’d be a 3-5yr hold, but I’m amazed on the run in Just the last month
What bike do you ride ?
Not full gap fills in Qs and SPY …but gap fills nonetheless. May we please plunge now Dr Fly?
Will you buy $KL for earnings tomorrow? They are printing money hand over fist at $1,700 gold.
Trying an earnings play. Loading up on ATVI.
Damn this market won’t quit.
TheS&P futures couldn’t clsoe the 4/29 – 4/30 gap.
Bye-bye
That’s what you’ll hang your hat on? Yikes.
I guess it could try tomorrow, so probably not a big deal in itself.
Tried and failed again over several hours. That should do it. NASDAQ following suit
There is a disconnect when it comes to the stock market. As everyone understands, COVID-19 and the Lockdowns triggered the stock market colalps. However, the common thinking is that the improvign situation with COVID-19 puts things back to noraml and solves all the stock market problems. This is shortsighted and naive.
The economy is massive. We applied the emergency brake becuase we hit a disease that money couldn’t fix, so the deicsion was made to literally stop the spread no matter the cost (socialize the pain). However, just like a locomotive, once it finally stops, it take a while to get back again. In terms of stocks and bonds, the FED is providing enough liquidity that overshooting to the downside likely will not happen. The problem is that the market is not pricing in *any* downside at all – look at YTD performance.
So let’s start by where the economy was *before* COVID-19 (with the understandign that the economy is not the stock market). In 2019, GDP grew by 4.0% and waht up 20%. From 1961-2000, the economy only grew at a slower rate than that *once* in 40 years. In fact, despite what the 11-year Bull market might indicate, each of the last 12 rolling 10 year GDPs (1/1/1999-12/31/2008, 1/1/2000-12/31/2009, etc.) were all lower than **all 61* of the previous 10 year GDPs going back to 1947 (all the data I had). So COVID-19 just triggered a valuation correction that was a long time coming.
So now let’s talk about the recovery.
The economy is alos like a pyramid: the largets businesses depend on mid-siZed businesses as their customers, and so forth. The base of that pyramid is crumbling – that is the main problem and why their will be no V-shaped recovery.
This problem is not unforseen. The FED has zero power in to help the littel guy, but Congress does and has taken some steps in the right direction. However, the money is not making it to those that need it most.
First, look at small businesses and the PPP. If Congress really wanted to help the businesses that need it the most, they could have easily put a put caps on the loan size, thus ensuring that even if the big dogs went up to the food trough, there woudl still be plenty for others. Predicatably, this isn’t what happenned (https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2020/04/17/56528). Of course, it didn’t help that there was no incentive for banks to give laons to riskier customers, even if the loan was 100% backed by the Treasury. This means that those businesses will be permanently closed.
Secondly, the stimulus checks. $1300-$2000? Great, that’s takes care of 1 month.
Third, unemployemnt bonus. The problem with this program is that the states are mostly unequipped to deal with the massive volumes. Best case scenario is that this delays payemnt, but that still has serious consequences when people have no savings. The bigger problem is that unemployemnt runs out before the employment situation recovers.
Fourthly, evne when the economy reopens, the customer spending won’t reach previous levels until we get a vaccine. While so far trickle-down has predictably failed, the trickle up pain from the income hit that samll buinesses and the unemplyed will be felt.
One last thing. I think Biden deserves the benefit of the doubt. Not because he is running against Trump, but because of this:
“During 28 years as a state and federal prosecutor, I prosecuted a lot of sexual assault cases…When women make allegations of sexual assault, my default response is to believe them. But as the news media have investigated Reade’s allegations, I’ve become increasingly skeptical. Here are some of the reasons why:”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/29/joe-biden-sexual-assault-allegation-tara-reade-column/3046962001/