18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,484 Blog Posts

Fly Buy: SMN

I bought 10,000 shares of [[SMN]] @ $46.95.

Disclaimer: If you buy SMN because of this post, your local garbage man will spit on your new car. And, you may lose money.

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Stick to the Program

Look, without question I feel the market will be much lower by March. All rallies will be theater, nothing of substance.

Should the Fed cut, I will sell into it, then bulk up on shorts. Because of my bias, I will not buy the dips, even for a trade.

Instead, I will hold cash, then reposition into double inverse etf’s. As of now, I’m looking to buy [[SMN]], which gets me short basic resource stocks, including [[MON]].

Don’t get me wrong, I think MON is a great stock. However, there is a ceiling to the amount I will pay for watermelon seeds.

By the way, what do you chart chomping type think of [[XOM]] here? My technician says: “it’s forming a head and shoulders top here Fly.”

Again, [[DUG]] gets you short XOM.

Bottom line: I’m covering some shorts, but will not attempt to play the upside, since it goes against my long term strategy. Getting cute with trades is the root of all tax losses.

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Here Comes the Bounce

Instead of buying into the bounce, I am covering some of my shorts, via selling [[FXP]], [[EEV]] and a few others.

In short, degenerate OTB guys are trying to catch an emergency Fed rate cut early, buying now. These fat losers think they will sell on Friday, then proceed to buy a new car or boat over the weekend.

Well, I got news for you, fuckface, “The Fly” already bought that boat. It’s mine.

As you can see, oil is breaking down here, dragging lower big-stupid oil stocks. With my money, I will press my bets in [[DUG]] and buy more. I feel oil is on the other side of the mountain now and will soon afflict great damage to those who are long [[XOM]], [[CVX]]— and other big stupid oil companies.

Keep in mind, if the Fed doesn’t cut by Friday, down we go again.

NOTE: With oil knifing lower, [[DCR]] is looking “gangster good.”

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Non-Position Update: MVIS

With the stock down more than 20% today, and some of you still in the stock (unfortunately), I did a little sniffing around.

Apparently two quant funds blew out over 1 million shares today, indiscriminately. Meaning: someone needed to get out, no matter what.

My sources, who speak with management, insist that everything is all good.

Bottom line: I’m not buying the stock because of my written in stone game plan, which is to go long 2nd half of 2008. Plus anyway, I’m bearish as a bear in a bear cave eating bear food.

However, it’s worth noting, people tell me “it’s a screaming buy.”

You’re welcome.

UPDATE: Look for the company to unveil its embedded version of the Picop in February.

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Lack of Panic Keeps the Market Down

The worst part of this market is the lack of panic. For the most part, this recent decline has been orderly.

The biggest misnomer is the untested theory that Asia has decoupled from the U.S. Well, for those of you who believe that, tell it to the fuckers in Hong Kong, who lost more than 5% in trading last night.

Near term, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bernanke and Co. step in and save the day, via an emergency rate cut. If he is serious about doing it, expect it to happen on Friday, which conveniently falls on option expiration day.

With my money, I may bulk up on my [[LEH]] short position, while taking profits on others. Thus far, I’m undecided.

Finally, it’s worth noting the queer nature of all semiconductor stocks. [[INTC]] shit the shower, big time. Expect many others to do the same.

On a pullback, I would buy [[SSG]], which gets you short the semi’s (double inverse), namely INTC, [[TXN]], [[NVDA]], [[AMAT]] and [[WFR]]—amongst others.

NOTE: Anyone know what the fuck just happened to [[MVIS]]? Fucking assholes, they are.

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“The Fly’s” Reorganized Top 10 Holdings

As you know, since early December of 2007, “The Fly” has been positioning for this leg down. Here are the results:

Top 10 Holdings

1. [[FXP]]

2. [[DUG]]

3. Cash

4. Short [[DECK]]

5. [[RIMM]]

6. [[CLX]]

7. [[AAPL]]

8. Short [[LEH]]

9. [[EEV]]

10. [[GME]] [[SKF]] is a close 11.

UPDATE: Danny followed up my “How Much Lower Will We Go” post, with some charts. The point I was trying to make, as you can see in the charts, the market will likely trade lower, before making a recovery. Make no mistake, the market will recover all of its losses and then some, eventually. However, I feel a real trading bottom may not come until March.

UPDATE II: Stock futures added to market data box.

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