No Deals For You

See, everyone is fixated on the amount of write-downs at our dumb banks. However, what is being lost in the greasy sauce, somehow, is the health of the underlying business’.

During the tough times of 2000-2002, there were no deals. Deal firms were fucking starved, forced to push out cornball preferred offerings.

Nothing hot.

Speaking to friends, I can tell you, deals are in jeopardy of being canceled. When markets dive, the risk appetite of investors vanishes, making speculative deals, via secondary or ipo, nearly impossible to price. And, if they do get done, expect them to be priced down.

My point: deal firms like [[LAZ]], [[GHL]], [[TWPG]] or [[COWN]] will suck wind, indefinitely. Moreover, big brokerage firms, like [[LEH]], [[MS]], [[MER]], [[JPM]], [[BSC]] and even [[GS]] will suffer too.

Also, any companies with loads of debt and a need to go to market for capital will be shorted, until oblivion. If XYZ corp relies upon the markets for capital, while those markets are essentially shut down, they will be forced to either default or raise cash, via undesirable means—such as PIPE’s.

In short, examine the stocks you own. Make sure they have pristine balance sheets and avoid the temptation to bottom fish.

In my opinion, all of the stocks mentioned above are shorts.

I sold out of my remaining [[GLF]] and [[BBY]] positions.

I sold short 1,000 [[DECK]] @ $127.52.

UPDATE: I sold short another 1,000 @ $127.67.

Disclaimer: If you sell short DECK because of this post, your only son will wear Uggs. And, you may lose money.

Currently, I am short [[DECK]].

The bear case is simple: specialty retailers, eventually, get thrown down the sewer—especially when the consumer is flat broke.

Comparing DECK to [[CROX]], DECK is overvalued by all metrics.

If DECK were to trade at a similar multiple to CROX, the stock price would be reduced to $55 per share.

Food for thought.

I bought 5,000 [[DUG]] @ $39.06.

Disclaimer: If you buy DUG because of this post, you will become addicted to oil. And, you may lose money.

If we are heading into recession, as sure as I’m sitting here, the major indices will be 10-15% lower by mid-year. Take notice of the abysmal start to 2008 as a warning shot.

If your approach to the market is to go long stocks, all the time, regardless of reason—you are in for a rough lesson.

See, unlike you low-end fuckers, “The Fly” learned a thing or two, playing down markets in 2000-2002.

Right now, [[FXP]] is my largest position. Look you, all bubbles come to an end, no matter how sophisticated the puppet masters are. Remember MNCS?

Also, with President Bush talking down oil in the middle east, I want to buy more [[DCR]] and [[DUG]].

Finally, my [[DECK]] and [[LEH]] shorts are working here. And, on the back of that homo [[C]] number, I am bulking up on my [[SKF]] position.

Basically, “The Fly” is a big ol’ bear & shit.

UPDATE: Citigroup- Credit rating cut to AA- by S&P following loss- Bloomberg (28.13 -0.93)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41BjWZ-NSzs 450 300]

We just booked the worst retail sales since the recession of 2002.

Very nice.

Aside from that, [[CHL]] and [[AAPL]] have officially ended discussions, essentially assuring the iPhone will not be sold in China. On that news, [[FXP]] is shooting higher in premarket trade, as CHL swan dives.

And finally, [[C]] only lost 10 billion and change, while cutting the dividend. However, investors are keen to their stupid games and are dumping shares in the premarket.

The good news is, there is still dumb money in the middle east to float their [[C]] boat. The bad news is, China is no longer interested in investing in Western banks.

Hmmm, I wonder why?

While Chinese investment groups have bought big stakes in Wall Street firms like Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley, the scuttled deal suggests there may be limits on how much the Chinese government is willing to invest in the Western banking system. The exact reasons for the breakdown are unclear, and it is possible the two sides may return to the negotiating table.

It’s a disgrace that we have been reduced to third world status, while they’re the rich fuckers.

Reverse roles and shit.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYD1tUD71C8&feature=PlayList&p=8AF18B710B3DB739&index=24 450 300]