iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,250 Blog Posts

Citi to Writedown 24 Bill/Market Set to Surge

In retardo land, when your biggest bank is being rumored to have lost 24 billion big ones, betting on degenerate lotto tickets, stock futures go up.

Of course, there is a “ton of good news,” mainly circled around the [[IBM]] chuck wagon. Then, we have other “good news” out of [[SHLD]], fucking itself again, getting ready to dive down another 10 spot.

What’s another 10 spot between friends? After all, aren’t we all friends with Cramer’s buddy/pal/money manager Eddy Lampert, CEO of SHLD?

Considering the severe oversold condition of the market, investors are piling into this “good news” environment, scared to miss out on some important sea change & shit.

With my currency, I’d rather buy cheap whores and vodka, than try to hitch a fucked ride on the “guess who will lose 15 billion plus tomorrow” shit train.

Aside from that, [[AAPL]] looks ripe for a bounce, going into Macworld.

NOTE: Today is Lindsay’s last day hosting Wallstrip. She did a great job hosting the show. I wish her the best. The new host will be Julia Alexander. Another win for Howard and those CBS fuckers.

UPDATE: I have meetings to attend. However, before I leave, I’m calling this bounce dead. Sell it twice and buy some [[FXP]], if that’s your style. [[CHL]] cannot get a deal signed with AAPL. They’re all assholes at CHL.

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50 comments

  1. calvino

    Eddie, you are a genius, along with your main baboon Jimmy. Called your bullshit SHLD on Thursday.

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  2. Woodshedder

    Hilarious…

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  3. kd

    fly,
    when citi writes down 24 bil and yet the markets are showing bullishness, doesn’t that mean bottom is being formed? People are starting to shake off bad news and moving forward.

    Also, would you nibble a little at mvis at this levels? and when do you think may be a good time to jump back in full force.
    thanks.

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  4. Juice

    we are very close to a tradable low … who gives a shit about IBM, yet the market is up on that nothing news while SHLD eats shit, which I may buy a little.

    I doubt this pop holds but the next one later in the week may hold.

    When the market gets very volatile in both directions, a short term trend change may be upon us.

    Be forewarned newly minted & growling bears.

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  5. wow

    Two weeks ago the talking shills at CNBC saying stay away from financials! stay away from financials! Now the retards are starting to call bottoms! Yeah, bottoms usually form in a couple weeks! ALL IN!

    Financials are great long-term shorts this year… why am I so convinced? Same retards were telling me how “contained” the subprime/housing fiasco is are now trying to tell me we’ve seen the worst of it..

    Will be adding MER short today in this “strength”… Financials will be red by end of day. Fake bottom… mmmm bottom.

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  6. The Fly

    KD:

    MVIS can bounce here. However, I am not timing my buys on price. I will buy the closer they get to launch.

    When the market ignores bad news that is good. I admit.

    Let’s see how this plays out.

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  7. Richard A.

    ducati998
    do tell what the problems are.

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  8. The Fly

    Richard:

    Ducati is just making that up.

    He thinks all stocks bake numbers, which may be true.

    Nonetheless, ignore him, like old Grandpa in the attic.

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  9. calvino

    Piper .. a big gushy fuck you with the wrong side of the Coke bottle.. getting out of DECK for our clients are we??

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  10. The Fly

    Piper Jackme can have their DECK bounce. I, on the other hand, will have its demise.

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  11. calvino

    yge gonna roll over, the 8 mw order is bullshit and they dying as we speak

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  12. calvino

    bidu and fslr already rolled over, this bounce is running on farts

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  13. howard lindzon

    thanaks to you guys at ibankcoin.com

    where’s that genius bilderberg, the awesome shortseller

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  14. Art Vandalay

    Woodshedder said, “Art, what’s your timeframe? You bettin’ on a bounce, or do you think this is THE bottom?”

    This week a near term tradable bottom could occur. Bears need to be on guard. If I were a dyed in the wool bear, I still would not be putting on new short positions at this juncture.

    Doom and gloom may already be baked into financials. Citi news has been expected by some analysts over a month ago. Institutions have clearly been selling, but they soon may say, “I’m tired of this shit” and start buying again to bank coin. Yes, they are complete market whores.

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  15. WildWestie

    Wow, Fly makes Altucher’s column on Real Money this week:

    Microvision (MVIS – commentary – Cramer’s Take – Rating): Down 22% on the week as a large investor stated that he was going to sell his stake.

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  16. wow

    art,

    Citi bounced from 26.50 to 29s, MER from 47s to 55s without a whole lot of fanfare… how much higher can these things possibly bounce?

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  17. Shorticus, Demigod of Financia
    Shorticus, Demigod of Financia

    They will all bounce into my crystal toilet bowl, thanks to my Bolshevik servants in the “financial press.”

    All I require of these servants in the “main stream business news” field is a four year degree in Marxist economics.

    I am an easy touch, in that way.

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  18. Art Vandalay

    If MER closes above 50-day early this week, we could see more confidence from traders for the long side.

    However, this market could still go either way at this juncture ( my favorite word of the week). Honor your stops both long and short and be ready to trade the Costanza way.

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  19. The writedowns in banking/financial land witnessed thus far are just an “Appetizer”.

    Prepare oneself for the seven course meal.

    “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet”.

    “It’s Only Just Begun”.

    When the Jury delivers its verdict, forget the “B’$$”, the numbers will assuredly run into the “T’$$”.

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  20. Woodshedder

    DECK offering up a decent short entry. I would get a partial position here and wait and see if there is any follow through to the upside this week for the rest.

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  21. Art Vandalay

    Ratio of new highs / new lows is improving. The market is setting up for a much needed bounce. Barring no negative surprises from financials reporting earnings this week, we will be moving higher.

    PPI and CPI will probably be benign, in line.

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  22. jeff

    http://www.zshare.net/download/6505775e268f47/

    Bilderberger

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  23. alphadawgg

    Ag stocks, in general are doing well.

    MOS is now digging out Shorticus’ heart with a spoon.

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  24. Woodshedder

    Art- this struck me as funny, “Barring no negative surprises from financials reporting earnings this week…”

    What makes you think CPI PPI will be in line and benign.

    Believe me, I’m all for a bounce so that I can really get short.

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  25. calvino

    Ah Shitty bank, finally announcing the layoffs, bye cows!Does anyone think Vikram Vandaloo got his lamb job because he’s not going tobe sacrificed as the most hated CEO in the history of Shitty bank? yum yum

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  26. tehdrunky

    hey fly,

    would you short intc, or stu ahead of earnings?

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  27. Shorticus, Demigod of Financia
    Shorticus, Demigod of Financia

    MOS is on my “hunting list.”

    It tires, like the tracked doe that it is.

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  28. CubsRock

    So Bears. If financials and home builders continue uptrending, what leads the market down?

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  29. ottnott

    The new capital for the banks is just a blood transfusion.

    When do you get blood transfusions? When you are bleeding so badly that you might die without the blood. Does the blood transfusion fix everything? Everything but the holes where the blood is pouring out.

    When you see the banks have to work so hard to scrape up some capital, one could pronounce that a bottom is here. Or, one could wonder if, maybe, capital so hard to come by will not be as easily lent as the capital already flushed down the drain. And, one could wonder if, maybe, an environment where capital is not as easily lent is an environment where the economy’s growth will slow or reverse.

    One could, but that would be time that could better be spent applying for new credit cards and putting them to work.

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  30. ottnott

    So Bears. If financials and home builders continue uptrending, what leads the market down?

    financials and home builders

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  31. Woodshedder

    “So Bears. If financials and home builders continue uptrending, what leads the market down?”

    Everything else. Or the other 80% of the S&P 500.

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  32. ottnott

    From The Big Picture:
    The Baltic Dry Shipping Index (BDI) is the key gauge of shipping rates for the world’s busiest 24 key shipping routes.

    Last Thursday, the BDI fell the most it since 1989 plummeting 384 points (4.6%) to 7,949. (single day change). The BDI is now 28% lower than its Nov. 13 2007 record peak of 11,039.

    The potential of a U.S. recession is starting to spread to othr contraries, all chatter of “decoupling” and “containment” notwithstanding. If this is foreshadowing a broader global decline, we should expect commodity prices to suffer as well.

    There’s your other 80%, Wood, unless the drop in shipping rates reflects a decrease in shipments of container loads of mortgage-backed securities.

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  33. calvino

    My case?? I’ll tell you my case.

    Cubs left-hander Ted Lilly melting down in Game 2

    Cubs sluggers Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez going a combined 6-for-38 with zero extra-base hits.

    The D-backs’ Eric Byrnes hustling to beat out a double-play ball in the clincher, enabling Arizona to score its third run of the 5-1 victory

    Brooms brooms brooms!!!!!!!!

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  34. Art Vandalay

    “What makes you think CPI PPI will be in line and benign.”

    Woodshedder-
    Regarding PPI, producer pipeline pressures aren’t making it to consumer prices where core commodities prices are flat from a year ago.

    Regarding CPI: Core commodity prices are flat yoy as energy (21% yoy) and services (3.4%) provide the only pressure. The seasonal adjustments for energy were made in Q3/Q4. The markets will see oil back down under $90. There’s a better than 50/50 chance that crude inventories will show an increase for last week, when they are reported this Thursday.

    Market consensus for CPI and core CPI is 0.2%. It’s the same 0.2% for PPI and core PPI.

    2.4% annualized growth is at the higher end of the Fed’s range, but still not sufficient to get their panties all bunched up.

    The market should rally once the numbers are confirmed tomorrow for PPI and Wednesday for CPI. I think some folks are thinking the same way and we may see a rally at day end in advance of tomorrow.

    The market has only heard bad news of late. The situation is ripe for positive surprises. And we haven’t even factored in a surprise rate cut by the Fed. This is going to be a deciding week for the market to continue the downward slide, or recover.

    Developing……

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  35. CubsRock

    Thanks for your responses.
    Well something such as MER does like like a good short from here, but with rate cut on the way? That will help them and especially the home builders.

    calvino: At least it didn’t hurt as bad as in 2003, I was depressed for weeks.

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  36. Woodshedder

    Art, I don’t doubt that what you say is possible, or even true; however, I’m wondering if this is your own opinion, or if it is represented in the data someplace.

    I have a hard time believing that producer pipeline pressures aren’t making it to the consumer.

    Core commodity prices flat YoY???

    Pressure from Oil will be relieved, no doubt.

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  37. Art Vandalay

    A near term decline in commodity prices will ease inflation fears due to the US$.

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  38. Art Vandalay

    Annual growth surged to 7.2% in November, above the 17 year high reached in September 2005 and presumed to be the peak. The core stands at a tame 2.0% yoy from July 2005’s decade high of 2.8%. The problem is energy prices which are up 24% yoy after a 93% annualized surge over the last three months. However, to date producer pipeline pressures are not providing any lift to consumer prices. CPI core commodity prices are flat from a year ago despite the powerful upturn in core PPI prices. That is, wholesale/commodity pricing pressures aren’t yet really pressuring retail prices.

    Category(numbers in sequence for Dec, Nov, Oct, Sep, Aug)

    Finished Goods 0.2%E (Dec), 3.2, 0.1, 1.1, -1.5
    Core 0.2%E (Dec), 0.4, 0.0, 0.1, 0.1
    Capital Equip………. 0.3, -0.1,-0.1,0.1
    Consumer Foods……… 0.0, 1.0,1.5,-0.5
    Energy…………….. 14.1,-0.8,4.1,-7.0
    Intermediate Matls….. 3.7, 0.1, 0.4,-1.3
    Core…………….. 1.0, 0.1, 0.1, -0.5
    Crude Materials…….. 8.7, 2.4, 0.1,-2.9
    Core……….. 0.5, 1.4, 1.6, 0.8

    See http://www.bls.gov

    Sorry about the table above going “homo”.

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  39. Stupid, but lazy

    Art,

    You haven’t taken into account the “basket of goods” used to calculate inflation.
    Core inflation = the things that haven’t gone thru the roof, yet.

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  40. The Spider

    Fly,
    I thought I read on a thread that you sold half of MVIS?
    Seems to me you may have sold all?
    Any comment

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  41. Employee8

    Woody …..

    CPHD

    Nice!

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  42. Art Vandalay

    Stupid,

    The 200 categories of (basket of) goods and services fall into those major headings in the “homogenized” table I presented.

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  43. TraderCaddy

    Art Vandalay makes for a good burrito at Moe’s Mexican eatery.

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  44. Stupid, but lazy

    Art,

    That falls into category 3.
    Types of lies:
    1)lies,
    2)damn lies and
    3)(gov.) statistics

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  45. zephler

    the fed borrowed almost as much money last week as post 9/11….looks like everything will be ok!

    http://www.investmenttools.com/thefed/fed_borrowing.htm

    Isn’t it great to print your own money….

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  46. Sierra Water

    Life is good when you own a portfolio full of bottlerockets via agri micros and unleveraged gold shares. COIN up 60% today. GRO up 20%. FEED up 20%. I am actually shorting gold stocks right now. Who would of thought.

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  47. Shorticus, Demigod of Financia
    Shorticus, Demigod of Financia

    So Bears. If financials and home builders continue uptrending, what leads the market down?

    OttNot:

    financials and home builders.

    Curse your far seeing eyes! You’ve stolen my retort!

    Have you submitted your application for High Priest at my Athenian Temple?

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