Currently, I am short [[DECK]].
The bear case is simple: specialty retailers, eventually, get thrown down the sewer—especially when the consumer is flat broke.
Comparing DECK to [[CROX]], DECK is overvalued by all metrics.
If DECK were to trade at a similar multiple to CROX, the stock price would be reduced to $55 per share.
Food for thought.
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Great idea, thanks. Plus, CROX at least had the medical field going for them to buy their ugly fucking shoes. DECK is a stupid fucking fad, honestly, how long will it last…
http://www.laist.com/attachments/la_malingering/pink%20uggs%20with%20miniskirt.JPG
Would you buy the March 125 puts here?
A lot of young women will have no money by then and furry boots will be out of style for all but eskimos.
Is the PG down?
Silence of the lambs?
Not to mention, DECK chart was PERFECT short setup.
I will break away from work here this afternoon and get the chart posted.
Will you be adding to it?
DECK will soon visit my cousin Vulcan in Hades.
Wood-
Wow, DECK had a nice 3 bar pullback from 132 to 146 by Thursday last week. I missed that one–looking at the March 125 puts….to play catch up.
Dryads in miniskirts, however, will always remain a “buy.”
Fly,
When do you think mvis will be near production?
With NKE taking it tail-gunner style, DECK has yet to feel some real pain.
That said, I am still looking for a 2 month low coming within a week.
Alpha, I missed it too, but then Piper Jackme gave the perfect opportunity yesterday with their upgrade. Yeah, thanks Piper for allowing me to get short at good price.
KD:
I think they will get the standalone out for x-mas of ’08.
However, I’m not so sure on embedded.
Short DECK is the best idea ever. I’ve despised that stock since 2003. I’ve shorted it three times, had decent gains a couple of times. I had so much conviction in the trade I watched those gains evaporate and ultimately got my face ripped off each time. Everything seems to be lining up this time.
I think the disastrous retail sales numbers increase the chance Bernanke does an intrameeting easing. We all know it’s too little, too late, but that won’t stop a massive short covering rally.
AXP increased loan loss reserves last week and Bob Pisani wants you to believe people are surprised about the performance of Citi’s credit card receivables? Bob Pisani is an asshat.
Anybody want to joint venture the purchase of CWTR here? We can move all production facilities to Romania where it has the strongest customer base.
nice call on FXP
I suppose you are holding on
Basics update:
Increased position on all my basic holdings:
Shorts:
RTI (-2.54)
OLN (-4.25%)
IYM (-2.49)
Longs
SMN ( 4.56)
It’s not FXP, but it’s steady.
Mr.Flea
Just a short note here…..I’m long and my panites hurt…Bla Ha Ha !
pud-
this is PURE CONJECTURE on my part, but it “feels” like today will be the day we get the suprise token cut.
Not trying to say you guys’ DECK short is a bad idea, but just wanted to add an FYI that DECK also sells Tevas and Simple shoes. Although most of their run was due to UGGS. What I think of UGGS is summed up in that one episode of Bam’s Unholy Union on MTV when Bam warned his fiancee about wearing her UGGS. She didn’t listen, came home in a pair of UGGS, he had his boys hold her down while he ripped those things off and threw them in the fire.
the sector spotlight graphs look very bullish, WOW, everything is a gap up and staying there
GCO is an example of the “Shoe Trade”
Nashville based, and in the crapper, although they have much legal troubles compounding their problems
Fly,
Do you think embedded will be delayed by just a month or two, or more like 1 year or two? What makes you feel that way?
Do you think HUD and eyewear will be delayed also?
Thanks.
S&P Raises VMI To BB+