18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,598 Blog Posts

My Weekend Will Be Better Than Yours

I just wanted to say that to you, my readers, in parting.

I’ll have you know, I just sold out of my gold positions—including Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] and [[DGP]] . They’re rather pointless, aren’t they?

In their place is nothing.

“The Fly” is buying nothing, with both hands, in size—going into BBQ weekend.

This is the last hoorah for the summer of 2008. All in all, it was rather benign. I never take long vacations, so my highlights are usually somewhat subdued. Nonetheless, I enjoyed myself a great deal and look forward to banking some major coin—during the fall and winter months.

My thoughts about stocks and asset allocations are constantly changing. I never stick to one mantra or investment style. Instead, I think dynamically, always on the prowl for a new angle.

If there is one thing I can drill into your stupid skulls is to think dynamically—which includes questioning your own philosophies, not just others.

All in all, the stock market is a bastard of a place to make a living. I remember getting into the business, more than a decade ago, and all of my friends and colleagues were so “psyched.”

We were all going to be rich, thanks to the stock market, Gordon Gekko and our Godly skills.

Fast forward 10 years, 90% of my colleagues have quit the business, either because of the emotional drain or good old fashioned failure.

If you’re in the business and feel it’s not for you: quit being such a piker and get to work.

You only think that way because you want success served to you on a platter, during a specific time of the day—preferably when you’re not busy. Nothing in life is easy to attain, minus stupidity and death.

If you want to make lots of money, put the work in and quit thinking about happy hour or weekend trips.

Off to the butcher.

Top picks: Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , [[DIG]] , [[SKF]]

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Fly Buy: SKF

I bought 1,000 [[SKF]] @ $116.

UPDATE: I bought another 2,000 @ $115.78

Disclaimer: If you buy SKF because of this post, the banking system will collapse. And, you may lose money.

UPDATE: I will not be adding to SKF or starting any bank shorts until next week. In addition, I will not buy any SKF over $110. I will add to this position sub $110, down to $90.

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Time to Price in Obama

“The Fly” hates politics, so don’t start with your low-end babble. However, for the sake of knowledge, I did a little research on McCain’s maverick pick: Palin.

At first, I hated it. Then, I loved it. Now, I hate it again.

First of all, recently, she had a baby—who was born with down syndrome. Now, I applaud her for having the baby and not taking “the easy way out.” However, she went back to work—only 3 days after giving birth. What kind of huckery is that?

I mean, as a parent, I’d be appalled at my wife if she did that.

Also, it’s worth noting, her husband works for BP. As you know, “The Fly” has nothing but love for the oil companies. But, this will not go over well with people who hate oil men.

Pricing in an Obama win will be very arduous. You have to discount the market by at least 10%, considering his stance against free trade and capital gains.

On the plus side, it’s time to take a serious look at alternative energy stocks. I foresee the Obama administration funding alternatives, like a drunken Ben Bernanke at a Bear Stearns X-mas party (I know that made zero sense).

Separately, the market is boring me to death. Not even a “Deacon of Death” can get the oils going.

Contrary to what the market is saying, I still like the oils here.

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Calm Down; The Market Sucks

Late in 2007, “The Fly” predicted we’d be down 15% in 2008. I stand by that prediction, and more (if that makes any sense). We are likely to “enjoy” the bigger sized losses in 2009, as industries from planes to autos say “see ya later, I’m gonna go ahead and file for bankruptcy.”

I told you “The Fly” was on the verge of making his second best market call of 2008, via timing the banks with NASA-like precision. Right now, I have a 15% cash position and bountiful energy plays. My only short positions include a very small piece of [[SKF]] , Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] , Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] and Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] .

Look you, I’ve been in this business for awhile now; and I pay attention. Some people just go through the motions and enjoy their money. I, on the other hand, would stay in the office, studying the market till 11pm, while my colleagues were out getting drunk and doing lines of blow off bar stools.

The market cannot be trusted during August-October. If you believe the market has “bottomed,” because August was fairly decent, you are delirious.

Remember, mutual and hedge funds have been boot stomped this year. That will not be resolved smoothly, when the quarter ends and people want their money back. And, don’t forget, companies will begin to warn of earnings shortfalls, sometime very soon.

Finally, the banks are still broke. They need to raise more capital. Anticipate a flurry of dilutive secondaries to hit the tape, within the next 4 weeks.

With my money, I will keep my cash position at 15%, maybe nibble on some [[DIG]] and [[IEO]] , should it dip some more, and prepare to buy some serious rib eyes for a BBQ “The Fly” is hosting this weekend.

NOTE: None of you are invited. So sorry.

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The Gods Love iBC

My secret to market mastery is magical—like Mickey Mouse, minus the gay ears and friendly demeanor.


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I Am Here to Help

While it’s true, “The Fly” is into sticking his chest out and spitting on 2nd place finishers; he also likes to play “financial vigilante” in his spare time. I share my thoughts with you, not only to build a 1st class financial website, but to help those of you on the outside trick the trickers at their own game.

The arguing on this site is healthy; after all, we are men. Men are programmed, through erroneous DNA, to hate one another. That’s why we punch each other in the face at parties and cut each others arms off during battles.

I’d ring alarms if, all of a sudden, all of you miscreants started to play nice, planning trips with one another.

As for the market:

I was up nearly 4% today, thanks to my long positions in banks, [[UYG]] , [[RKH]] . My energy plays took a step backward. But, I was able to knuckle my way in at the lower levels today.

Cognizant of possible light volume, end of August trickery, I sold out of my bank longs and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] . I don’t want to press my luck, with the economy at a grind here—only growing 3.3% for the Qt. (rolling eyes).

My energy positions are bountiful. I will likely take some off the table tomorrow, ahead of the long weekend. There are so many short positions out there; I expect they will get squeezed.

Also, I like Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] and all of the military stocks, including Northrop Grumman Corporation [[NOC]] , General Dynamics Corporation [[GD]] , AeroVironment, Inc. [[AVAV]] and Lockheed Martin Corporation [[LMT]] .

However, at the present, “The Fly” is into pressing his luck, via egregious long bets on Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] , [[DIG]] , [[IEO]] and Arena Resources, Inc. [[ARD]] .

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Fly Buy: WNR

I bought 30,000 shares of Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] @$9.15. And, I bought 3,000 Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] @$80.15.

Disclaimer: If you buy WNR or EQIX because of this post, President Obama will outlaw oil. And, you may lose money.

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Feeling Luck, Punk?

Who wants to go short oil, into a long weekend, with a hurricane of death coming?

Tell me.

If so, you’re either a riverboat gambler or a degenerate OTB guy (no offense to online gamblers).

In my not-so-humble opinion, the easy trade is to get long Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] , Valero Energy Corporation [[VLO]] , Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] , [[DIG]] and [[IEO]] into tomorrow, as Gustav shows his balls of fury.

If you choose, you can sell out tomorrow and take your winnings to the local race track. Or, you can roll the dice and hope Gustav will do some damage to those rigs, that cannot be fixed or walked away from.

Every once in awhile, it’s worth a shot to throw some dice. However, I suggest doing so, only if you have big gains (like me) to fall back on. If you are some sort of destitute loser, sit this one out or hedge it with a long [[DTO]] position.

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