18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,662 Blog Posts

What’s Good For Oil is Good For Oil

Oil stocks are fucking ripping today, with monster gains in [[HOC]], [[DRQ]], [[VLO]], [[TSO]], [[OXY]], [[WNR]], [[FTO]] and [[DK]]. Within oil, refinery stocks are up the most, due to nice gains in gasoline. In my opinion, it’s still too early to load up on the refiners. I’d rather wait until mid March, at the beginning of the “driving season.”

Farm related stocks have gone parabolic, with outrageous moves in [[CF]], [[POT]], [[MOS]], [[AGU]], [[LNN]] and [[MON]].

Without doubt, there is a looming shortage of food. I’ve outlined my food commodity bull case numerous times. However, I believe too much cash is chasing too few stocks, effectively inflating the commodity related names to unsustainable levels. Thus far, buying [[SMN]] has been a fucking loser, thanks to the gains in MON. Nonetheless, I will continue to average in, in order to take advantage of when the fucking wind comes out of the sector. Trust me, at some point, they will break lower.

With regards to the general market tone:

Brokerage stocks are weak, with losses in [[BSC]], [[GS]], [[CS]] and [[LEH]]. In addition, retail related names are weakening, as the morons who manage your money realize that higher commodity prices, at a time when people are “jailhouse poor,” is a worst case scenario.

Don’t get me wrong, I do not wish death and destruction to all stocks, just the ones I am short.

Right now, [[REW]] seems like a low risk short side play, with [[MSFT]] being the largest holding. Keep in mind, MSFT is breaking the bank for a 3rd rate internet company ([[YHOO]]). With all the arb players leaning on Softee’s stock, I think buying REW is a no brainer and a good bet against big tech.

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Bagels Are on Fire

So, England nationalizes Northern Rock and I’m supposed to feel better about myself? I don’t think so, fuckfaces.

At the end of the day, the price of a bagel is out of control inflated, selling for nearly $1 per, thanks to skyrocketing flour expenses. We have commodity prices running like internet stocks circa 1999, unemployment on the rise and a “tapped out” consumer—due to depreciating home values. And on top of that, we have the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression.

Don’t you fucktards get it?

The price of the bagel is going up. How can we live with 1 dollar bagel expenses and what will we eat?

Answer: We can’t. Nothing.

Seriously, because food is so vital, paying very high food expenses can actually deflate other prices—enabling the Government to declare low core cpi data. Think about it.

If people aren’t shopping at [[M]], because everyone is spending their money on inflated essentials, the price of 100% wool sweaters will drop.

In the meantime, I anticipate a long/arduous battle for the market. There are too many money managers, with far too much assets. These men are stupid, mind you. They will “acquire” shares of XYZ in the middle of a “thermo-nuclear” war because that shit will be “priced in.”

With my money, I will sell short more [[RIMM]], [[LEH]] and “acquire” more [[SRS]] and [[DUG]].

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Setting Up For a Flush

Throughout the day, I made a variety of changes. I significantly pared back my short positions in [[LEH]] and [[DECK]], while bulking up on [[REW]], [[SMN]], [[SRS]] and [[DUG]]. Also, it’s worth noting, I sold a few thousand shares, very quietly, of [[SKF]]—near the highs of the day.

Chinese related stocks sprinted higher, as did select retail— like [[M]], [[GME]] and [[ZUMZ]].

For the most part, “The Fly” is extremely bearish on the markets, but will take his time averaging into selective inverse ETF’s. The key to building a winning position, is to avoid going “all in” at once. Instead, buy or sell in 10% increments. Meaning: if you are interested in buying 100k worth of SRS, buy 10k at a time.

Trust me, it will give you peace of mind and allow you to manage your bullshit trading accounts like a pro.

Early next week, I expect the financials will remain steady, with tech leading the way down. Short term, I will be focusing my efforts on “hitting” big tech, while trying my best to “machine gun” commercial real estate stocks, via buying SRS.

Finally, it’s worth noting, good ol’ [[HANS]] spiked today. While I’m a big fan of their products, I do believe their recent price hikes (per case) is related to higher transportation and raw material costs. I could be wrong; but I’d avoid buying the stock above $40.

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Fly Buy: REW

I bought 4,000 [[REW]] @ $73.10.

Disclaimer: If you buy REW because of this post, your employer will go bankrupt. And, you may lose money.

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Fly Buy: DUG

I bought 1,000 [[DUG]] @ $42.71.

UPDATE: I bought 1,000 @ $42.21.

Disclaimer: If you buy DUG because of this post, your toilet bowl will explode. And, you may lose money.

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