Beware of the Animale

We should be down 300-400 points today, considering the Yen and bond markets are unhinged. Take into consideration the bloodbath in Europe, we are fortunate to have such lovely, benign, robots controlling our markets. Those French robots must be real assholes. I bet they smoke cigarettes on the trading floor.

I made a commitment to refrain from making any trades, until after 10:30. The reasoning is to allow the excess to get out of the tape, considering  all of the pole smokers who jumped in/out of the market, following the HORRIFIC housing numbers. You must understand, days like today is when you lose it all, literally. The tape looks so bad, it’s as if the stock Gods are granting us all a gift, in the form of FREE SHORT SALES. Hell, we can short anything and get rich. Oh, but wait, it gets dicier. All of a sudden, the dollar goes down and inflationistas start diving into empty pools again, via large directional long bets. Eventually, the pool is filled with a bunch of dead bodies, making it safe for newly minted inflationistas to jump in, without fear of death. Then the rally begins.

In no way am I suggesting, at such an early hour, that we will have a pool over flowing with inflationistas, which effectively will lend towards a robust bounce. That would be most preposterous, small pleb. I am only offering an alternative ending to the fucked up story-line we are given.

In short, keep your eyes on the metals, banks and tech. Dollar weakness is good. But we need some deterioration in the Yen and bond markets, if we are to witness a bounce of stupendous proportions.

You better get to throwing coins at your pagan statues, for today’s set-up feels more like an ambush. I cannot believe what I am seeing, with regards to FXY/TLT. Even more so, I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS FUCKING HOTEL HAS CRAPPY WIFI.

Either way, be very careful out there and keep in mind, this market can remain irrational for as long as it wants. From my early looks, most sectors are getting poleaxed to the point where a down 3% day would not surprise me. A lot of people think we can bounce here, which is true. However, don’t count on Hail Marys winning the game. Do yourselves a favor and get hedged, even if you hate doing it. Do it.

More later.

UPDATE: I am staying put until 10:30 NYC time.

I’ve been thinking about today’s stock market “debacle”, while devouring the best food known to mankind. Then it dawned on me: we were only down 40 points. You fucking n00bs. Check this out. Are you listening? I kan spall chit wrung al dey lung an steel git mor traffik then u. I could write like a complete imbecile and still check in at 40,000 page views by this time tomorrow.

Do you know why?

ANSWER: I’m “The Fly”, motherfucker, while you’re just some guy talking shit.  See pal, I make shit, while you just talk it (it really was not meant to sound as disgusting as it just did). I don’t even proof read this shit or “brainstorm” for ideas. I just flow, like the Earth shits into Louisiana.

Everyone is so fucking concerned with stock prices. There is so much apprehension, due to bonds yen and a stalling U.S. economy, that a plausible and likely counter-trend rally is setting up to smash your fucking balls in with a meat cleaver. I’m not talking about some bullshit IKEA meat cleaver either. I’m talking 1950’s style hardware, pal.

Here’s the set-up:

Bank of Japan wakes up and helps push yen lower, which will RAPE all current momo players, leading to a full scale route on the currency. As a result, the NIKKEI will spring board higher, as well as most Pac-Rim indices. U.S. markets will be fueled by the deflation of the deflationary treasury bubble, oddly enough. And, finally, GDP data will be benign enough to support a late year rally. Nonetheless, we still go lower in September. But, this shit is building up; trust me when I tell you: PROTECT YOUR FUCKING MUSTACHES.

In the meantime, I will continue to play both ends of the trade and support a 15%+ cash position.

My flight to California cost me a fucking bundle, having missed the morning spike—then subsequently pummeled under a sea of red. I don’t have numbers in front of me now. But, let’s just say, today had to be one of the worst days in a long time for me, with longs down as well as my fucktarded “hedge” VXX.

It would be preposterous for me to suggest today was meaningless. The bulls are pussified into a deep stupor. They are scared of the yen and the bond market and deserve to be splashed with howitzers to the face. In order to console my grieving soul, I will head out to spend a few g’s on meaningless shit.

A more detailed assessment will be posted later on tonight.

One of the more humorous developments of my ongoing internet saga is the persistent willingness of “readers” aka “FLANS” to offer their tiny tidbits of advice. Mind you, this advice sometimes is delivered in the form of a roadside bomb or by gentle comments left on my bastard of a blog. Well, I am here to tell you, in the most generous of ways, to “fuck off and mind your p’s and q’s,” a favorite term of Grandpa Fly by the way. “The Fly” does not require your services and finds it, shall we say” reprehensible,” that a person of your low class standing in life would even dare talk to me, let alone offer advice.

Might I suggest a website of lesser quality for you to peruse and talk, in order to feel, shall we say “more at home?”

iBankCoin is the beluga caviar of this financial blog game. We are to finance blogs what Yankee fans are to Mets. Do not fuck with us, else our attorneys will be contacting you shortly.

Do not ask questions about the markets, when it is not open, for I am not interested in talking to you about it. If I sound somewhat “perturbed” it is because I have an early morning flight to the gayest coast in America tomorrow; and I am busy packing my bags into the old space shuttle. So if you’re in Kansas, or some ridiculous state like that, and witness some UFO in the sky dropping garbage all over your bullshit park, feel safe in knowing it is “The Fly” en route to SD (no relationship to the publicly traded company with the transvestite CEO).

As for the markets: I will make lots of money, AND MORE, shortly—as it is bounded by the laws of mathematics.

The following names are typically sucking dick, on a regular basis, during the month of September—no offense to gay guys of course.

No.	Ticker	Seasonality – Average Monthly Return	Seasonality – % Months DOWN	Seasonality – % Months UP	Seasonality – Month	Seasonality – # Months DOWN	Seasonality – # Months UP
1	BDN	-6.08	79.17	20.83	September	19.00	5.00
2	RRD	-2.50	76.00	24.00	September	19.00	6.00
3	TIN	-4.22	78.26	21.74	September	18.00	5.00
4	CLDX	-5.21	78.95	21.05	September	15.00	4.00
5	TRMB	-7.29	77.78	22.22	September	14.00	4.00
6	SPA	-3.54	77.78	22.22	September	14.00	4.00
7	WIRE	-3.34	77.78	22.22	September	14.00	4.00
8	AAN	-3.92	76.47	23.53	September	13.00	4.00
9	ANAD	-10.74	80.00	20.00	September	12.00	3.00
10	NOOF	-15.72	100.00	0.00	September	12.00	0.00

Using The PPT new seasonality tools, I scanned for names that have flawless records in the month of September. Behold are the results of such a masterful screen, all thanks and praise to the Godly folks at iBC.

No.	Ticker	Seasonality – Average Monthly Return	Seasonality – % Months DOWN	Seasonality – % Months UP	Seasonality – Month	Seasonality – # Months DOWN	Seasonality – # Months UP
1	PFWD (acquired)	13.38	0.00	100.00	September	0.00	6.00
2	MNKD	17.41	0.00	100.00	September	0.00	6.00
3	LF	7.67	0.00	100.00	September	0.00	8.00
4	GHL	11.83	0.00	100.00	September	0.00	6.00
5	FTWR	18.44	0.00	100.00	September	0.00	6.00

Off to pack for a plane.

Are you willing to bet that there will be no mergers on Monday, following a huge one on Thursday? I reckon many people of your ilk, the low class burlap kind, will be clamoring for cash into the bell. Why don’t you make yourself comfortable, right near that vat of acid, so that I might kick you into it, as a gesture of good faith for your lack of humanity?

If you have an issue with my trades, boy, fade me. There is nothing stopping you from betting against me. Hell, you might get lucky for a day or two, maybe even a week. But I fucking dare you to come here three months from now and show me your body of work, depicting how you outperformed the greater indices by trading against me. I am NOT Drunkenmiller. I will paint your face red, then let off a few rounds of my Desert Eagle in it.

Whether the market rebounds today or not is immaterial. Should this be the beginning of a long downtrend, I will adjust and profit from it. In the short term, my money is betting on a long bias. Having said that, in order to raise some cash, I sold out of my ATHR/GMCR positions; but I added to my BUCY—just in case “merger Monday” comes to fruition.

In short, the problem with you bearshitters is that you think too emotionally, like little bitches in Paris. I fade you with all of my life force and spit on your person, whether you like it or not!

The market is being rational, which is catching everyone off-guard. For the past year or so, the market was behaving in a way that made no sense. We’d see perpetual melt-ups, for no good reason. Most people just chalked it up to “government bullshit,” and proceeded to buy high beta securities, with the backstop that manufactured inflation would bail out investors. People figured, Ben Bernanke was on their side and the data didn’t matter. Lo and behold, something has changed. We are in mid-August and the mood is different.

Bonds are out of control to the upside. Let me note, bonds are ALWAYS out of control to the upside in August: do a little homework. Stocks are getting clobbered, rightfully so. And, the relief rallies are short lived. People are confused because the market is actually making sense. We’re so used to trickery and manipulation that the real thing now seems to be untrustworthy.

Nevertheless, we are oversold and should get a relief bounce. According to my investment thesis, I should not have all of these fucking longs on my books; but I do. You cannot change the past, so quit bellyaching about it—dick sucker. I am most astutely interested in altering the future, which is why I just added to my TNA position.

For the love of nuclear wars and salmonella, we need a little irrationality in this market place. One for the road, please.