The Bannings Will Continue

Despite my better efforts, the majority of you are still commenting on iBC without top hats and gloves. Consequently, as 2011 winds down, I will be banishing quite a few of you from court. However, don’t let that get in the way of a healthy and grotesque fart, as you drive down the freeway belching with your wife.

It is true, I am being injured, yet again, by the shares of DECK, which happens to be a 15% position. This alone is dropping my gains by 1% today, as shares sink to fresh lows amidst earnings shortfall fears. It’s also true that I’ve been outspoken about my disbelief that warm weather equates poor Uggs sales. Moreover, I’ve been an ardent supporter of the valuation and growth prospects of DECK. With a cost basis just over $90 and very few days left in the year, this is definitely leaving a mark. If it’s not an over-reaction, then someone has some inside info and is selling ahead of that news. Believe it or not, I am not the CEO or CFO of DECK and have no idea what the fuck they are doing in Kangaroo land.

Perhaps it’s just me or the cloud that is following my top hat, but today’s 100 point melt up feels anemic.

If this wasn’t the time of year when people panic sell and book tax losses, I’d just cut the loss on DECK right here, right now. However, since I am in a patient mood and since I’ve yet to see any news pertaining to weaker than expected sales, other than some opinions of third rate analysts, I am inclined to wait and see.

I predict I will lose a great deal of money in DECK today, thanks to seemingly warm weather.

Apparently, we’ve all become Barney Rubbles, walking barefoot throughout the wilderness. The stock is down another $4.5 on no news.

Separate from DECK, the general market looks okay. I am not enthralled because breadth is still weak. But that will likely change throughout the day, as shorts gets compressed into panini sandwiches and eaten with fries.

If it wasn’t for Europe, I’d be rather constructive over US equities. Hell, the news isn’t that bad and companies are banking some serious coin. But then you have the big eastern mystery that is China. It can longer be debated, China is slowing. How else can you explain the draconian pullbacks in commodities? You know they are building ghost cities to keep people working. Well, apparently, they’ve slowed down. Consequently, the prices for raw commodities have plunged.

Either they are an incredible buying opportunity now or the party is over. It’s your call. I’m too busy eating granola.

2012 will be the year to “pay the piper.” All of the drama of 2011 will be resolved in 2012. The year will start off with a bang, with indices spiraling lower amidst renewed panic of imminent european bank runs. This contagion will spread to latin america, asia and finally the United States. For the year, I expect the S&P to drop by a staggering 50%, marked by bankruptcies in almost every industry known to mankind. There will be panic and most certainly pain. Most of you will not make it out of 2012, as the market gobbles your portfolios whole. Nevertheless, you will continue to read iBankCoin, as it is your duty to do so.

Here are some more specific predictions.

• BAC will file bankruptcy
• Most large European banks will collapse, alongside the fucking euro.
• Bank runs will become all the rage in Europe.
• Nigel Farage will be raised to legendary status.
• Obama will in fact WIN a 2nd term.
• Mergers and acquisition with the software sector will remain prolific.
• The first half of 2012 will be mired with an astounding 35% loss in the S&P 500.
• The market will stabilize during the summer months, post collapse. However, renewed panic will present itself in the fall.
• US GDP will barely stay above 1%
• Unemployment will be in the 8-9% range.
• Europe will be in depression.
• Chinese GDP will fall to 6%
• Indian GDP will fall to 4%, pushing its currency to new lows.
• QE3 will be enacted in early 2012. The initial response will be positive, then fade.
• TLT will trade north of $200.
• In late 2012, signs of a Japanese debt crisis will emerge.
• The European Union will collapse, alongside the euro.
• Multiple EU countries will be considered insolvent.
• The VIX will trade up to $100.
• FAZ will zoom.
• Venture Capitalist will suffer their worst year in a long time, mired by negative publicity regarding the mispricing of IPO’s and the second dot com bust.
• Social networking companies will be viewed as a value, post collapse.
• Facebook will withdraw its IPO.
• “The Fly” will positively nail the 2012 Armageddon trade with space alien magician precision.
• The dollar will soar, as well as the Yen.
• The United States will begin armed conflicts in both Syria and Iran.
• Oil will fall to $60
• Gold will fall to $1,200, then soar to $2,100
• Silver will fall to $15, then double to $30

The world will not end but it will suck.

As you can see, RBCN is up today, offering “The Fly” a semblance of respite in an otherwise abysmal day. According to the scientific laws granted to us by The PPT, TZA is increasing in value, making a winner out of those who adhered to its rules.

I find it interesting to see gold and silver getting punched in the cock, so late in the year. It’s almost as if the stock Gods designed to punish John Paulson one final blow before 2011 was completed. Without a doubt, both gold and silver will be worth buying soon. As a matter of fact, it may be worth buying now, providing you have cash reserves to average down. However, my plate is filled to the edges with LULU, DECK, RBCN and GSVC. My cash position is about 25%.

All in all, the end of the year will prove to be uneventful. The Italian bond auction of late January looms and there is no one who can know, without a doubt, what is on the singular mind of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel. Because of that, one much tread carefully in this market and respect the macro-catastrophe that will come to fruition.

NOTE: At 5pm, iBC’s annual predictions will be released.

We were overbought and now we are working it off. My best guestimate puts the S&P 3-4% lower before we are oversold. However, that will not scare me out of my positions, as it is my custom to ride through shit storms. As you know, I own TZA on two occasions, one was the initial purchase and the other an average down. I should have bought my third and final tranche yesterday; but I was preoccupied eating almonds all day.

I did warn you about gold and silver, didn’t I? Your heads must be made of cement and metal to ignore the warning signs. Don’t worry, it will be a buy soon, at lower prices.

Finally, I’ve come to the conclusion that moving down south is not possible for Le Fly. Frankly, the level of sheer ignorance is too high in many of the places I’ve scouted. Unlike others, I do not base where I live on tax burdens or political ideologies. If I were to do so, I’d live in Greenland. No, I will pay my taxes, albeit a very high amount, and adhere to the laws of the state. I’ve concluded that New Jersey is my best bet, for a variety of reasons. Mostly, I appreciate the close proximity to NYC. I only tell you this to dissuade you from sending me ridiculous brochures through the email, pitching your state to me. Governor, I spit on your state and shit on your flag.

As I sit here at 2am, reading a good book, accompanied by a sublime cup of Earl Grey, your behavior disturbs me. As God is my witness, I’ve tried to culture you to the ways of a gentleman. Much to my chagrin, the majority of my work has been ignored, as the lot of you opt for burritos and french fries instead of a proper Michelin meal. You singularly tarnish my person. However, I will not yield.

Over the course of 2011, I’ve been forced to ban over 400 so called “readers” of the site for rude and ungentlemanly behavior. To be candid, I cannot blame many of you for your actions. Firstly, the ignorant and the poorly bred lower tier of our society starts at a disadvantage, not knowing how to demonstrate proper decorum amongst other gentlemen. Secondly, the internet is filled with hucksters and TIMS, which in turn makes “The Fly” that much more unbelievable. To witness the superfluities of iBankcoin and to be threatened by the caprices of some whimsical, almost majestic, space alien magician is almost too much to bear. For that, I offer you 10,000 apologies.

However, my question to you is, Sir, where is thou top hat?

I mean, really, do you expect me to endure this baboon-like behavior forever, without yielding to my own whims of removing the comments section altogether? You are far too generous with your boorish demeanor.

Although we do monitor most of you via direct access to your laptops and webcams, I cannot be concerned with your behavior outside of iBC. But when you are here, rest assured, the law will be upheld and all trespassers will be held in contempt. To put it bluntly, untoward mannerisms, even spastic, involuntary, actions of the head, feet and hands WILL NOT be tolerated. You will be subject to swift action, which entails mustache removal and/or full ban, without pardon, to be reeducated by a certain Greg Solomon.

Good Day.

Slowly but surely, I am regaining my coin. I expect the last days of 2011 to be marked with light volume uncertainty, paving the way for an explosive start to 2012. As I’ve told you before, preparations for the unthinkable have been arranged for, as I’ve always erred on the side of prudence instead of greed.

My positions in DECK, LULU, RBCN and GSVC are rather large and are designed to press my rights upon the market to further endow my pantry with expensive foods.

Although uneventful, I enjoyed today’s inaction and subtle fuckery as a form of oasis away from the otherwise turbulent waters of the stock market.

Going with my current strategy of supporting current positions, I added to my RBCN holdings.

I just had some oatmeal that tasted salty. Sometimes, my insistence to avoid sugar goes a bit too far. I will be the first to tell you that. However, our food supply is poisoned by chemicals and shit (literally). I find it difficult to eat without thinking about what I am ingesting. Naturally, the men with long beards and full mustaches decry organic food to be for the effeminate. They boast while greedily feasting over bowls filled with carcinogens, then die of brain cancer shortly thereafter.

What is the price you are willing to pay to fuck the people who poison your water and food supply? For the average pleb, the solution is very simple. Fuck them while treating yourself. Shop at Whole Foods or Trader Joe’s and buy organic only. I refuse to support the dick-suckers who try to fuck me with their chemicals. Sadly enough, eating healthy is expensive these days. Most Americans sustain themselves on Taco John’s, Mcdonald’s or Murder King. Sometimes they “treat” themselves to “healthy” food via Chipotle or Panera Bread.

It’s all shit. Both Panera and Chipotle use franken-meat, laden with e-coli, and their meals are geared to support the households of your local cardiologist.

Over the past 5 years, Le Casa del Fly has made wholesale changes to what we eat and where we shop. I dine out about 1-2 times per month, as opposed to 3 per week a few years ago. When we dine out, soda is never consumed. As a matter of fact, my two youngest children (8,7) have never tasted soda. It is, without a doubt, extraordinarily unhealthy and does nothing to promote growth.

How does one make money off this trend? If I was interested in buying organic retailers, I’d position in HAIN, WFM, TFM, BGS, CALM, HANS, UNFI and short MON.

Eating healthy requires discipline. Most people are too busy to care about themselves. In many respects, we are all fatalistic in that regard. However, I not only view eating healthy as something that helps me; but as something to punish the purses of greedy vendors of toxins.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVDqWNqsEAg

UPDATE:

I was going to do a post about tax loss selling; but then I changed my mind. I am sick of preaching about what to do or what not to do. This cannot be my fate, explaining the most remedial investment philosophies to people dressed in sub-standard ballroom garb.

Amazingly, the market is flat and my stocks are just sitting there, eating peanuts, watching the teevee. For all intents and purposes, the year is over. Most money managers are on vacation until 2012 and have closed out big positions. As for me, I am about 25-30% cash and feel inclined to buy more TZA rather than add to my stupid positions.

I will be lucky to close out 2011 with a 10% gain. Barring some sort of fucked up crash, I will make at least 5% in 2011, by all measures an abysmal year. However, when looking at things through a different scope, my assets are moving higher. I have made money every year since 2002. Despite 2011 being lackluster, I know it’s only a matter of time before I catch a monster winner. I will not rush destiny, for time cannot be altered, only managed.

Having said that, there is nothing of great interest to me now. Everything is sort of bland and I am bored.