“The Fly’s” Greatest Hits of 2012

The Facebook IPO: A National Disgrace

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A STORY OF DECAY AND DESTRUCTION

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The Important Matter of Making a Fortune

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Exactly 11 Years Ago Today, I Destroyed Myself

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iBankCoin Calls the Election For OBAMA–FOUR MORE PEAS

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BONUS:

BUTTERBEER

Ragin Cajun is doing his 6th annual stock pick of the year contest–always fun. This year, however, we are asking you to take personal responsibility for your picks and post them to newly launched website Chartpin.com.

Whether you are a technical guy or fundamental, upload a chart and give a brief rationale as to why you like the name, affixed with a $tickersymbol and (#Stockoftheyear2013) hashtag <—yeah, you MUST do that shit.

RC will grab the picks, link to them, and submit them for the 2013 contest.

When will you learn the whole democrat versus republican debate is just a ploy to distract you from the true culprits?

I’m not going to curse or yell. Instead, I am simply going to lay out a scenario that is likely to grip America.

Because our politicians are drug addles sex fiends, more interested in being paid off than serving the American people, we are heading into a self-inflicted recession.

Let me repeat that point and elaborate on what that means.

Due to the incompetent people who you elected to take care of very important things, economic growth will fall by 2-5% in 2013, which in turn will mean an acceleration of the unemployment rate–upping the amount of foreclosures and plunging the economy into another crisis. Stocks will plummet by at least 20%, paving the way for a bonafide bear market.

Grover Norquist is not the King and Obama is not our dictator. It is a crime that we are still talking about this, just days before the end of the year.

Providing they come to terms on a deal, US corporations, who are rich with cash, will begin to invest again, helping people keep their fucking homes.

Don’t invest your money in anything. Keep it in cash because: 1. The fix is in. 2. Our elected officials are drug addled sex fiends.

If this isn’t tyranny, I don’t know what is.

I found two metrics interesting and worth monitoring.

1. Year over year mobile device usage.

2. Year over year browser usage.

Time is running out to avoid a strike at 14 ports from Boston to Houston that could choke off half of the ocean containers carrying goods to and from American shores.

The unions are people too.

We need to go over the cliff, breach the debt ceiling, absorb a fucking port strike and higher taxes, all the while avoiding economic compression, based upon the ideal that “it’s all just a non-event.”

Good luck with that.

This is a premium product of The PPT, a daily blog that I publish; but it’s here for you–free or charge! Sound the trumpets and cook your finest living lamb, for knowledge is about to be dropped on the dirt bomb throwers.

REJOICE!

I apologize for not updating regularly; but it’s rather pointless considering the markets are stuck in between Congress and end of year traditions. Nevertheless, I will tell you what The PPT is saying today.

Over the past two weeks just about every investor has been mesmerized with the short selling pimp hand of Bill Ackman from Pershing Square. Well, what else is Bill up to?

He’s been making back some coin in JCP lately, and making even more in BEAM. He’s a big owner of Burger King, BKW. But I can never see that stupid company working out. I am interested, however, in FBHS and BEAM.

Feel free to look up your favorite hedge fund managers to see what they’re up to.

None of the major ETFs are oversold; but TVIX is overbought. If there is one thing worth betting against in 2012, it is volatility. Over the past 12 months there have been 11 overbought signal for TVIX by The PPT. Of them, the algorithms have been right 10 out of 11 times, with TVIX getting crushed, on average, for -12.7% over 10 days. XIV is attractive.

Look, the overall hybrid is below 2.7 and tech score under 2.00. This is a bearish tape, regardless of today’s intra-day reversal.

Auto-makers are still strong. Naturally, my favorites are TM and HMC. I’m also a big fan of shorting yen, especially into rallies. You can do that via YCS–which is also the top ranked ETF in PPT’s universe. The number two ranked ETF is DXJ, which is a combo of short yen, long Japanese exporters.

Another interesting stock is PRSC; but the volume is too thin for me to buy.

Read the description of the company and try to figure out HOW  CAN THEY LOSE in 2013?

The Providence Service Corporation provides and manages government sponsored social services and non-emergency transportation services. It offers home and community based counseling services, which include home based and intensive home based counseling, substance abuse treatment services, school support services, correctional services, and workforce development; and foster care and therapeutic foster care services. The company also provides not-for-profit managed services comprising administrative support, information technology, and accounting and payroll services; intake, assessment, and referral services; monitoring services; and case management services. In addition, the company provides non-emergency transportation management services to state Medicaid programs, local government agencies, hospital systems, health maintenance organizations, private managed care organizations, and commercial insurers, as well as to individuals with limited mobility, people with limited means of transportation, people with disabilities, and Medicaid members. Further, it offers school transportation services to school children, including special needs students who are physically fragile or mentally ill. The company has operations primarily in the District of Columbia, United States; and British Columbia, Canada.

Bottom line: Volatility is not a good hold here and Japan is on fire. My favorites are HMC,TM, NMR and MTU. The market’s can do anything based upon last minutes deals. But I’d rather wait until after the New Year for a true oversold reading or a resurgence of the bull market to emerge. Going heavily long now is equal to betting on Congress to do their job–always a high risk/low reward trade.

ChessnWine did a quick video on Japan and PPT. Check it out.

UPDATE: Here are actual stats for PPT Tech Oversold signals for 2012 and what the market did after them.

I’m so fucking resigned from this market right now: I couldn’t care less. I fully expect all of my stocks, sans HMC, to trade down to zero. I’m like a kamikaze investor, throwing shit in the wind, hoping it will land on my neighbors windshield.

Based upon my two decades of investment experience, I can tell you that beaten down stocks, with heavy short positions, are best positioned to rip heads and fuck necks into a melt-up.

Here’s the stupid, cocksucking list. Now leave me alone.

The house will convene on Dec 30th to make a deal.

Question:

Do you really believe they will strike a deal; and if so, how much will the market rise?

My guess is 220 points.

I’m just not sure they will do it. However, if they do, we will get a respite. Nevertheless, they’ve been known to disappoint. Therefore, I am keeping my 35% cash intact.

I love observing human behavior. Believe it or not, I don’t say much about what I observe, favoring commentary on the absurd. But some of you are hilarious specimens. For example: many of you try to hide your partisanship, being card carrying members of the modern day communist party aka The Democrats, by saying “there is no such thing as a ‘Fiscal Cliff’.

Are you people out of your fucking minds?

It’s the greatest tax hike in the history of the world, which will wreck the US GDP by 3%, thrusting us into recession. How the fuck is that nothing?

People have become so jaded in their belief systems that they are unable to see when “their team” is fucking up. Set aside your politics and listen to mine:

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN ON THE VERGE OF DESTROYING THE US ECONOMY.

You stupid shits.

Don’t blame that crying Boner for not agreeing to draconian tax hikes without concessions for spending cuts.

Again, you stupid shits. The only reason why we are forced to do this is because BOTH PARTIES agreed to bail out the banks and fuck America, permanently. Since we transferred all of the losses from their books to ours, someone has to pay for it.

Guess who that person is?

It’s me!

The majority of American’s don’t pay dick in taxes. The burden will rest on the upper middle to upper class to pay for the oligarchs in charge of this stupid financial system. It’s no wonder why BAC and other banks are hitting 52 week highs.

Into the cliff, I am 35% cash, with 10% allocated to HMC. I am looking to short YEN, hopefully on a bounce. And I am eying shares of TM, NMR and MTU.

I bought my kids a dog yesterday and now have to deal with the consequences. It went against my better judgement; but it was for the greater good. Early this morning, as fate would have it, the power in my area went out, most likely the result of a karmic rebalancing, having been exempt from the Hurricane Sandy carnage.

So here I am, sitting in the daylight, with only a back up generator separating me from the cave age.

The markets are sliding, as the toxic combination of tax loss selling and selling to lock in at a lower tax rate grips the small brains of investors. Naturally, VHC is slothing around in the pig pen, alongside EXK and JRCC.

HOWEVER, I report happy tidings from the island of Japan, as shares of HMC don’t give a fuck about the jackassness that is America.

Fuck your fiscal cliffs and your guns. SAMURAI HORATIO is swinging a katana and drinking hot, hot sake, while watching the yen depreciate into dust.

Top picks: Japanese exporters, short FXY, long YCS, long HMC.