Stuck in Place

Stop with the cynicism, with regards to the recent terrorist event. Turning it into some sort of inscrutable ruse to strip away freedoms for political purposes makes you look like a slack-jawed ape– with your mouth wide open and your eyes as empty and dumb as a set of testicles.

I made a small amount of money today, because I am mostly cash and HDGE. I own KMB, WM, PEP and CHD, which did great, but they’re such a small part of my holdings, I’d be remiss to brag about them.

My “core holdings” are FRO and GTAT. It’s truly funny that those words were just written by me. I cannot trace back to the time when I thought to myself “Fly, that’s exactly what you should do. Make FRO and GTAT your core holdings.” My position is one of disbelief; but I must carry on, for the sake of the people and the extravagant living mannerisms of a one Mrs. Fly.

If it was up to me, I’d probably live in the woods somewhere, grow a thick beard and do pull ups off a tree all day, in between breaks where I’d murder animals and eat their flesh.

I have a lot of stocks that I am willing to buy, none of which come with instructions to buy on a sleepy Friday afternoon when the entire city of Boston is under martial law because a crazy 19 year old terrorist in on the loose.

I’ll wait for better prices.

I am looking for companies with pristine balance sheets, who are profitable, sport low PEG ratios, and possess market caps more than $5 billion–whose stock is down more than 10% year to date.

Out of thousands of stocks screened, just 10 fit the criteria.

AAPL

BIDU

CEO

CHL

EXPD

FNV

GRMN

JNPR

SLT

VMW

It’s tempting to allocate funds to this exact portfolio.

So far, one of the two Chechen scum brothers have been killed. The other, the punk in the white hat, is being sought after and will be killed soon. The entire city of Boston is on lock down, searching for the younger (19) of the two brothers.

The NY Times has a full background on these two muslim idiots, who somehow believe that by killing and maiming innocent people will result in a grande prize upon their sudden/fortunate deaths.

The older brother was quoted as not having a single American friend because he didn’t understand them. That’s code talk for being an introvert virgin, who was unable to make it in real life, so decided to lash out–indoctrinating his younger/impressionable brother to help him create a sense of self-worth by hurting others.

This is classic moral insanity. The good news, as far as I can tell, these might be an isolated event, unrelated to a broader terrorist plot.

UPDATE: Police are looking for a Gray Honda CRV, Mass plates 316-ES9.

UPDATE II:  Police are warning that this bozo might be heading towards Manhattan, strapped with a suicide vest. Be careful out there.

UPDATE III: Here is another photo of him.

UPDATE IV: The elder/dead brother had made this psychotic Islamist video month’s ago.

UPDATE V: Another person of interest is being sought after, who apparently took a train to Connecticut.

UPDATE VI: They found the car in question.

First 10 seconds, trust me.

You other bloggers are simply embarrassing yourselves.

Don’t believe for a second the drop in gold and silver were isolated events. As a matter of fact, it’s all tied into a single thesis, all to do with liquidations and the reemergence of risk off.

Oil will follow, luring people back into the fold due to a reduction in “input costs.” However, what they won’t realize straight away is the municipal dependence upon gasoline taxes and how lower gas prices is onerous for many state across the country.

There are beneficiaries.

Look at the shippers, companies like FRO are plagued by fuel costs–which comprise 67% of their expenses. If one could surmise a few simple points, they may start to believe that a company like FRO will benefit from sharply lower fuel costs.

But the shippers are not a short term play, as it needs to undergo restructuring in order to heal.

Be wary of the fast money trades, picking the depressed “for a trade.” Sometimes those trades end up becoming an albatross, something you will regret with every fiber of your existence–shortly thereafter.

“The Fly” will continue to wait out the tape in search for reasonable discounts. At these levels, following a mini-pullback, I do not feel a sense of urgency to jump into the fray.

I am not offering advice, but speaking to myself.

All I can do is wait for some of my favorite names to cheap, names like WETF, BX and USG. Sure enough, they’ll come down and it will be scary to buy when I decide to buy them. But there aren’t many pullbacks in this perpetually bullish market, so you might as well take advantage of the pullbacks when you can.

We’ve been sharply lower in May for the past three years. Some might say “it’s time for a change. May will be up.” But everything points to the continuation of this trend. In the big scheme of things, one month is a very small amount of time to wait for cheaper stock prices. Instead of risking 20-30% of your holdings, based upon the caprices of the Fed and our beloved policy makers, might I suggest taking a month for holiday?

Top picks: GTAT, HDGE

Today confirms what we’ve all suspected: this market is headed for much lower prices. Traditionally, the market is “let go” during the month’s of April through July. I see no reason to believe 2013 will be any different.

Volatility is back and so are treasuries. As you can see, TLT and VXX are heading up again.

My preferred form of short is HDGE, however. I am not looking to make a fortune on my shorts, just stem the flow of blood from leaving my body. I do not feel comfortable initiating short positions into the teeth of a decline–because based on recent history, shorting the market has been a losing endeavor.

So, my position is simple: 55% cash position and another 20% in HDGE to pair alongside my depreciating longs should allow me to remain in control of my destiny, at least for now. I am very eager to make back recent losses, but know the fastest way to accomplish this task is to bide my time and wait for my trade, not acting out of desperation like a dog fetching a scrap of food.

The Devil is net short too, but has a special situation that comprises all of his efforts at the moment. Hopefully this downward tape will allow me to buy some. However, it’s been very stubborn and extremely strong.

I have tailored made indexes that I use to keep track of what I deem to be important. Let’s just get to it and I’ll explain my sentiments along the way (now would be a good time to adorn your heads with top hats, thanks).

6 Month Charts

Here is the commodity index, which is basically a cross section of the entire space, e.g Ag, Steel, Gold, Oil. It is in a bear market, no explanation needed. Is this the bottom? Who know’s? It’s making fresh lows daily, so it’s a guess.

The financial index has held up very well, despite general market concern. If the market is really gonna roll over, this needs to be taken down a few notches.

This is my semi-managed index inside The PPT. Ironically, the chart sort of resembles my real portfolio. This is in free-fall mode. The chart is of a GARP index, specializing in growth stocks that appear to be inexpensive, using traditional methods.

This is the raw commodity index. Like the commodity index, the raw stuff, which represents the real stuff, not the retarded equities, is in super bear mode.

This is my risk appetite index. It is comprised of munis, govt bonds, foreign bonds, sovereign, corporate, junk etc. This is the credit picture, domestically and aboard. As you can see, the index foretold the weakness in April back in March. However, it’s on the mend again, likely due to the risk off nature of the equity markets. My analysis is simple: this is a risk off trade in stocks, nothing to do with deteriorating credit conditions. Nothing systemic.

Social media stocks have come a long way. This sector is a strong sell in a weakening tape. I am surprised it has held up so well. This is a sector I’d consider shorting immediately.

The tech industry is most representative of this market. It’s not in bubble collapse mode like gold and silver and not propped up like social media. It doesn’t look good.

Last but not least, my favorite: housing and housing related stocks. What a run this sector has been on. Like the finnies, it’s a leadership sector showing signs of weakness. I would not sell it short, since I firmly believe housing is on the mend. Instead, I’d track it closely and buy it up into weakness.

I need to lick my wounds for at least a day and refrain from buying anything. I just went outside for a quick ride to the local store and received a ticket in the process. Today is not my day and I don’t want to compound my losses through acts of desperation.

It was pathetic of me to buy AG, even though I outlined how silver stocks trading 15-20x sales was unsustainable and it was equally pathetic that I didn’t book gains in GTAT.

So, here we are again. The great equalizer is working its magic and everyone gets a fresh start. I am going to stick with my original thesis that the market is on the cusp of much lower prices. Therefore, it goes without saying, nothing should be bought.

I do not ban people because I am bored or annoyed by what people say. I ban people because they disgust me and I like to take away whatever freedoms available to them, within my control. If you are reading this and unable to comment, that means you’ve received a level 2 banning. If you are unable to access the site without using a proxy, you have a level 1 ban, which means you’ve committed the equivalent of “high treason” around these parts and should be executed.

Because I cannot arrest you and carry out this punishment, you’re banned from accessing the site, a good deal, very lenient, with all things considered.

If it pleases you to know, I’ve taken a wrecking ball to myself once again, as is tradition here on an annual basis. It should also please you that each time I’ve done this, I actually predicted the market decline, effectively ignoring my own warnings.

My losses in AG were of the egregious sort, punishing my year to date returns down to a pedestrian 13%. After selling AG, my cash is now upwards of 50%, with another 20% in HDGE. I am in a very “safe place” now, but not in a position to make my money back. I’d have to allocate funds to do that, something I am afraid to do.

As fate would have it, I have a really good tip from The Devil regarding a certain stock that “looks good” on his radar. Coming off of a mountainous win in UNXL, “The Devil” is feeling his oats, confident in his market analysis.

The problem is, the stock is a bit too illiquid for me and I cannot afford another loss. The conundrum with that, of course, is that scared money never makes money, so I’m stuck in a catch 22.

As we speak, the stock is shooting higher and I am missing out.