Catering to Fat America

Look at these food related stocks, lifting off. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering the drop in inputs prices. All commodities, save cattle, have been coming in, allowing grocers to make even more money.

Do you believe I am messing with you?

I am not messing with you.

Have a look at RNDY, WFM, NGVC, FWM, SVU, KR– the list goes on and on.

On the restaurant end, there is NDLS going bananas, not to mention CMG, KKD, DNKN, PNRA and FRGI offering consistent returns.

I don’t know why I stopped buying food and beverage stocks. For a while, it’s all I did. I used to partake in sheer debauchery, gobbling up shares of BWLD and HANS, testing their products out for sport.

I once commissioned a former blogger of ours to “search for Java.” He did a vid to document his struggles.

Last year I was buying PPC around $4; now I’m an idiot–watching the stock spiral higher.

There is something to be said about the fatness of the American people. They like to stuff their round faces with creamed cheese, popped corn and bottles upon bottles of SODA pop.

Why bother researching anything else?

Food for thought (pun intended).

I told you your scalp was going to be cut off. Now you get to sit back and “enjoy” capital losses.

Let’s keep this simple, folks (extra Denninger). The yen is decidedly lower, stocks are higher and gold is still for misfits.

I like AMBA up to $20, SHLD for a squeeze and IMMR because haptics is the way of the future (no Howard Hughes).

LED lighting is all the rage. Have a look at CREE. I have another LED stock that is ready to go and it’s not RBCN. Stay tuned.

Many of you were lured into another bear trap this afternoon. With both the SPY and Dow plummeting from its highs, the Russell, as represented by IWM, held its own.

Have a look.

Forget about everything else. The Russell is the market, represented a wide array of names, irrespective of market capitalization. At the very highs of the session, I was +3.1% and ended up 2.4%, hardly a pullback–indeud.

What I am trying to illuminate to you is the underlying strength of today’s tape. My OWW didn’t pull back, neither did IMMR. We’re gonna make private prison money in the smaller cap names soon, coming up immediately.

The Devil is perplexed over the abrasive robustness of the IWM and how it pertained to his stupid puts. We shall oversee those puts trade down to zero tomorrow, such is the prophecy of The Fly. Ordained by the stock Gods and Shadows del Urinal, we shall eat his liver for lunch–laughing all the way to church.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBDes9TuGBg

I still made 2.4% for the day; but the market came in EXACTLY how The Devil said it would. In private conversations, he was very smug and belligerent about his predictions, speaking to me in tones that infuriated me to the point of wanting to commit to violence.

However, being the gentleman that I am, I merely suggested that he fall victim to a giant gorilla rape and that the market was heading higher.

For the day, he was right and I was right–being that I made so much money.

Hence the term applies: “The Fly wins all the time, even when he is losing.”

I guess you forgot the market was down on Friday. You’re overzealous in your attempts to fade this rally. You see a little daylight with the market coming in and hope to “score” (extra Beavis). Much to your chagrin, the market is set to take off into the bell, closing near the highs of the day.

You can bitch and moan all you like, it will not change your cursed fortune.

The Gods smile upon me and smite you.

We shall see who wins this round of stock market roulette. I am ready to play.

Top picks: IMMR, OWW

I leveraged by 20%, buying up shares of AMBA and SHLD. I am now 120% long, into the polestar of this rally.

Obviously, I do not think the rally is done, because it is a ‘good’ one, in the traditional sense. Small fries like Fly jr and other underlings on this site have been readily dispatched to fag boxes and thrust into the oblivion, amidst empty space, black–nothing.

You can try to bet against the tape, but will soon fail. Mr. Bernanke is smoking marijuana filled blunts again, laced with the remains of his enemies.

In summary, the market is up because the tape is ‘good.’

“The Fly” is leveraging up to bank some coin and there is nothing that you or your stupid friends can do about that, mate.

I’m up 2% right out of the gates. For the first half of 2013, I made a little more than 29%, making it my best half in years. For the second half I intend to at least double my gains, putting me to +60%–which would be my highest return since 2010.

To accomplish this I am going to have to be consistent, fearless and I cannot have large draw-downs.  Losses must be taken quickly, eliminating the prospect that any one stock can deny me of accomplishing greatness. On the other hand, I must exhibit patience on names that I have faith in. To balance this delicate task, I must pay attention to position sizing and assume that my first buy will be wrong, leaving room to average in.

By far, my largest position is IMMR, with GS a close second. I am fully invested, with only scraps left to allocate. I might swap out of one name for another today, or I may do nothing.

Sometimes the best move is to sit back and enjoy the view.

Futures are down 5, but that means very little. What should we expect during the months of July and August? Instead of making predictions, which change all the time with facts on the ground, let’s review the history of the summer months, documenting what names and sectors do best, traditionally.

For this task, I will be using the seasonality engine inside of The PPT.

First, I’d like to point out that one of my newly minted positions, OWW, is a July seasonality play.

Here are the stats for OWW, during the month of July–over the past 5 years.

2008: +17.7%

2009: +36.84%

2010: 18.37%

2011: 30.92%

2012: 18.9%

Avg return is 24.4%

Other notable outperformers include:

CZZ

WPRT

CFX

ARR

ARMH

DPZ

ACC

SPWR

BIDU

POT

MELI

It’s worth noting, there aren’t many tech outperformers in July. It’s a hodge podge of REITs, property management stocks and oil drillers.

The best performing ETFs are ERX, FXI, URE and SLV. That just about sums up July.

During August, the best performing ETFs are AGQ, FXP and TLT.

Everyone likes to make a big deal about how bad June is for the market. But July and August aren’t much better. The S&P has gone higher just 45% of the time in July for an avg return of +0.33%. In August, the SPY traded up 65% of the time, but yielded a negative return of 0.29% over the past 20 years.

Truth be told, August would’ve yielded a positive return had it not been for the Asian contagion plunge of -14% back in 1998.

In summary, I expect this summer to be a stock pickers market, with emphasis focused on the bond market the whole way. Things might die down a bit for the next two month, but may become very active in the latter half of August and most certainly during September.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy6w1kLbhN8

My wife signed up our stupid dog for obedience school. On the first day of dog school, the instructor, who spoke with a heavy British accent, explained how she was going to train our stupid dogs. Then, in what I can only describe as being a pleasant surprise, she went to the back to get her dog, who actually looked like a ferocious wolf.

Standing there, with her obedient wolf at her side, she discussed how older dogs (like her wolf) didn’t particularly care for puppies, since “they behave inappropriately.” She furthered: “if your dog misbehaves and attacks my dog, he will correct your dog.”

No one in the audience picked up on her Delbert Grady impersonation but me, I am sure.

She continued: “I will not introduce my dog to most of the dogs here because the bigger dog is always at fault. If my dog is attacked, and corrects your dog, he will be to blame, so I just avoid the situation altogether.”

If you insist to know, my dog failed miserably on her first day, leading the disciplinary British instructor to inform me that she’d “starve the dog for a day or two in order to properly motivate her.”

DEVELOPING…

Now, it isn’t always the case, but typically when the mob is leaning one way, the exact opposite is about to happen. Too many of you misread the signals by what is stated on this blog, penned by an eccentric, professional money manager with almost two decades of success. What I am pointing to, rather, is overwhelming bearishness in a particular sector, like social media 6 months ago, Apple right now and gold after yesterday’s close.

The pattern keeps repeating itself and it’s always hard to bet the other way.

I don’t mean to tout my algorithms again; but it was built for this very thing: mean reversion. When the crowd is too bullish or bearish, the algos pick up on it and register overbought/oversold signals. The system weeds out the weak signals and pronounces the ones to pay attention to.

Here is a post done two days ago, inside of the private confines of The PPT, regarding Apple and gold.

Let me couch this great call on gold with the fact that I didn’t participate. I am not a machine, subject to the whims and emotional opinions that all humans are saddled with. However, the results are convincing and for those who took this advice made a year’s worth of gains today, short DUST or long NUGT, AG, IAG or EGO.

Several days ago, we were all bearish on stocks. Yesterday we were optimistic. Today we are on edge, waiting for direction. The media exasperates what we are feeling, sometimes coercing us to make poor financial decisions. This is important to remember, especially for those new in the business: things aren’t always what they seem. The direction is never clear and 75% of what you hear in the media is hyperbole, meant to attract viewers, like a soap opera.

Get some conviction on something that you are passionate about and stick with it for the duration.