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I see the traffic stats. Most of you mongrels pester me with your audience, then shoot over to Chess, OA and a little RC. However, a certain Mr. Caine Thaler, trained mathematician, supreme long term investor, long time tabbed blogger of iBC, gets little recognition for his services.

Like all mathematicians, save Einstein, Caine isn’t very flashy. He doesn’t lure you in with pornographic titles or astounding declarations of extreme violence. But he’s been killing the market, in his own way, for years.

He invests in long term ideas. Right now he is bullish on coal. Pay attention lads; he’s much smarter than you.

I asked him to summarize some of his recent winners. This is the spreadsheet he gave me.
Caine

 

If you’re looking for another go-to guy on iBankCoin, give Caine Thaler, master of the 9th floor, a chance. His track records demands recognition.

The ASCO conference is in full bloom today, with a slew of positive data coming out from a number of biotech companies. This is going to be a boolish day for biotechs.

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Half Time Report

YEAR TO DATE STATS:

Major Indices:

Dow Jones: +0.85%

S&P: +4.07%

NASDAQ: +1.58%

Industry Winners:

Marijuana: +263%

Semiconductor-Memory Chips: +44.3%

Gold: +30.5%

Aluminum: +27.19%

Trucking: +27.09%

Industry Losers:

Electronics Stores: -32.11%

3-D Printing: -22.93%

Home Furnishing: -20.19%

Food- Major Diversified: -17.64%

Advertising Agencies: -17.39%

Large Cap Winners (market caps over $5 billion):

VIPS +94%

QCOR +67%

RAD +65%

HSH +60%

TRN +59%

Large Cap Losers:

TWTR -49%

DDD -45%

SID -35%

VIP -35%

NBG -34.9%

Mid Cap Winners (1-5 bill):

ICPT +246%

ITMN +168%

FURX +146%

EMES +122%

SBGL +110%

Mid Cap Losers:

HIMX -55%

GRPN -50%

SINA -47%

NUS -46%

OIBR -45%

Small Cap Winners (under $1 billion):

CBDS +643%

MNTR +509%

FSPM +502%

ISR +369%

VRS +300%

Small Cap Losers:

DRL -82%

NIHD -81%

EDMC -80%

LIQD -78%

BODY -77%

ETF Winners:

JO +60%

CAFE +55%

DRN +55%

INDL +47%

TMF +42%

ETF Losers:

DGAZ -65%

UVXY -44%

TVIX -43%

KOLD -43%

RUSL -42%

Commodity Winners:

Coffee: +61%

Natural Gas +21%

Palladium +17%

Cattle +12%

Cocoa +11%

Commodity Losers:

Copper -8%

Coal -5.5%

Silver -3.5%

Uranium -3%

Lumber -2.5%

Currency Standouts:

Brazilian Real +9%

Indian Rupee +8%

Australian Dollar +5%

Chinese Yuan -2.5%

Foreign Indices:

Japan -10.2%

Hong Kong -0.96%

China -3.6%

Britain +1.4%

Germany +4.1%

France +5.2%

India +14%

Canada +7%

UAE Dubai +51%

Argentina +34%

Egypt +21%

Denmark +18%

Indonesia +15%

Taiwan +5%

Pakistan +17%

Vietnam +10%

Russia -10%

Turkey +17%

Italy +14%

Norway +10%

Spain +9%

Portugal +13%

Ireland +8%

 

Bonds:

Long Term Govt Bond +9.5%

TIPS +5.65%

MTG Bond +3.9%

Long Term Corp Bond +9%

Dry Bulk Index: -58%

Le Fly: -27.5%

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Bubble Stocks Are Cratering Again

Breadth stands at 38%. Shares of BLOX, SPLK, ECOM, SSTK, CRTO, IMPV and WDAY are cratering again, leaving you with a choice.

A. Do you take the leap of faith on the assumption that today is a one off event and the bubble stocks will recover on Monday?

B. Avoid them like the plague that they are, in favor for real businesses?

There is a parable tucked away in the decision you’re about to make. It’s the classic battle of Greed versus Ambition, mixed in with a little luck and timing.  Luckily for me, it’s an easy decision, since I am risk averse. I hereby extricate myself from the vagrancy of the market and seek to enjoy my weekend without the specter of monday morning ‘surprise sex.’

We might just be heading towards another PPT oversold signal. If that’s the case, this might be a good time to eat a sandwich and enjoy the show.

 

 

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Raising Cash

I am not bearish, just cautious in light of the bubble stocks imploding again. I told you it was a dead cat bounce. Right now the carnage is limited to tech, with biotech still performing. Nevertheless, I was +25% on my XON bottom shares, the first half of my purchase, so I took profits.

With the proceeds, I remain vigilant, on the look out for moar opportunities.

 

FYI: Those dollars will either be allocated towards a GARP stock or speculative trade.

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Reminder: THIS IS A DEAD CAT BOUNCE

Let’s not be disillusioned by what we are seeing in the high beta, money losing, tech space. Sure, the gains have been bountiful and it almost feels like 2013; but it’s not. Let the dastardly after hours pin less hand grenade trading in SPLK and BLOX serve as a reminder to you. If you’re playing this market, you need to remember two things.

1. Never hold a money losing tech stocks into earnings.

2. Limit your exposure to money losing tech stocks to just 20% of your overall portfolio.

The biggest winners will be in the companies who make money, period, end of discussion. Case in point: my semi-annually managed portfolio of growth stocks is now +0.4% for the year.  Had NUS not been cut in half, I’d probably be up 10%. I will be updating that GARP portfolio over the weekend, which will remain static, designed for longer term investors, for the remainder of 2014. I intend to put my best efforts into the selection process, comprising of 15 growth stocks of the undervalued varietal.

I made over 2% during today’s session, reducing my year to date losses to mid 27%, which is a full 10% off the lows. Should I get down to the low 20’s, I will likely take a more aggressive approach to this market, in order to expedite my current predicament.

This rally is dated till Alibaba.

 

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Hey Stupid

Silver stocks are sharply higher today.

I believe 99.9% of you scoffed at my silvery suggestion last night. Granted, I didn’t buy any, as my money is tied up in other things. But the point remains: the unwashed masses are better off eating chickened mcnuggets than offering financial advice on the internets.

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Good News Everyone: We’re In a Recession

Well not technically, but the GDP numbers came in at -1%. God willing, Q2 will come in negative too, paving the way for even higher stock prices. Don’t even attempt to try to understand how futures are higher on this news, as up is down and down is up. It’s been this way for half a decade. All I know is this: Tupac Shakur was a great man.

You have to read the responding police officers account of Tupac’s final moments on this god forsaken planet.

“I grab the car door and I’m trying to open it, but I can’t get it open,” he says. “[Knight] keeps coming up on my back, so I’m pointing my gun at him. I’m pointing it at the car. I’m yelling, ‘You guys lay down! And you, get the f**k away from me!’ And every time I’d point the gun at him, he’d back off and even lift his hands up, like ‘All right! All right!’ So I’d go back to the car, and here he comes again. I’m like, ‘F**ker, back off!’ This guy is huge, and the whole time he’s running around at the scene, he’s gushing blood from his head. Gushing blood! I mean the guy had clearly been hit in the head, but he had all his faculties. I couldn’t believe he was running around and doing what he was doing, yelling back and forth.”

Carroll says when he finally was able to open the door, Shakur’s limp body fell out of the vehicle, “like he was leaning against the door.”

“So I grabbed him with my left arm, and he falls into me, and I’ve still got my gun in the other hand,” he continues. “He’s covered with blood, and I immediately notice that the guy’s got a ton of gold on — a necklace and other jewelry — and all of the gold is covered in blood. That has always left an image in my mind. . . After I pulled him out, Suge starts yelling at him, ‘Pac! Pac!’ And he just keeps yelling it. And the guy I’m holding is trying to yell back at him. He’s sitting up and he’s struggling to get the words out, but he can’t really do it. And as Suge is yelling ‘Pac!,’ I look down and I realize that this is Tupac Shakur.”

Carroll says he attempted to get a “dying declaration” of a potential suspect from Shakur, but the rapper was ignoring him at first.

“And then I saw in his face, in his movements, all of a sudden in the snap of a finger, he changed,” he says. “And he went from struggling to speak, being noncooperative, to an ‘I’m at peace’ type of thing. Just like that. . . He went from fighting to ‘I can’t do it.’ And when he made that transition, he looked at me, and he’s looking right in my eyes. And that’s when I looked at him and said one more time, ‘Who shot you?’. . . He looked at me and he took a breath to get the words out, and he opened his mouth, and I thought I was actually going to get some cooperation. And then the words came out: ‘F**k you.’ After that, he started gurgling and slipping out of consciousness.”

In other news, TSN is bidding for HSH. It appears there will be a bidding war for that pathetic company , between Tyson and Pilgrim’s Pride. I find it interesting how the suppliers of food are doing decidedly better than the grocers. I can only surmise the producers are successfully passing cost along to the grocers and the grocers are unable to raise prices at the stores.

Bottom line: heading into today’s trade I was optimistic about further gains in JAZZ and XON. After these deliciously negative GDP numbers, I am even MOAR optimistic.

Costanza trade-style.

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A Silvery Opportunity

Several weeks ago I warned the canaille of impending doom to be savagely imposed upon gold and silver traders. These men were prancing about the market place without shield, sword-less. Since then, these slack-jawed catamites have beeb arrested, left to die in a catatonic state.

When someone perishes on Wall Street, opportunity presents itself for the vultures safely perched above, watching scenes of tragedy unravel.

I give you “Death by Silver.”

Gold and silver are now trading inverse to Application Software stocks, as unbelievably stupid as that might seem. The layman, you, your friends, parents and smartest relatives, are victims of algorthimic order flow, originated from the JP Morgan Bank vaults, located 5 floors below 45 Wall. This is specifically designed to subtract dollars from your brokerage accounts, a modern day “planned shrinkage” assault upon the Third Estate.

I am sure by now, I’ve lost 95% of the readership. Let me get to the point.

Here are a few silver stocks that might be worth buying for a bounce, and their 2 week percentage losses.

CDE -16%
SSRI -16%
MGN -14.4%
EXK -12%

Gold

TRX -17%
DRD -17%
HMY -14%
SA -9.5%
IAG -9.3%

Separately, all coal stocks appear to be headed into the toilet bowl, down into the sewers, with most names off by 15-25% in the last two weeks alone.

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