Stop Complaining About the Weather

Here in the northeast corridor of the United States, snow is part of our birthright. We don’t prance about the beach in the middle of winter with flip-flops, Hawaiian shorts, eating corn dogs. The snow makes us stronger, hardens us from the world around us. Over there in Florida and California, the people are weak, addled by drugs, pornography and lust. They are catamites.

If you’re lucky enough to have been born into one of the 13 original colonies in the northeast, stop complaining about the god damned weather. It happens every year, the snow that is. Another word out of you and I will see to it that you live out the rest of your days next to an active volcano in Hawaii, cavorting with savage tribes and sustaining on nothing more than spam and pineapple juice.

As for stocks, I’ll get to that a little later, if you don’t mind. I have my coffee and eggs in a basket (my favorite breakfast) next to me and would like to eat in peace. Thank you.

So I’m looking over the biotech sector in Exodus this evening and it dawned on me that the higher I went in market cap (I’ve set a ceiling of $5 billion cap in Exodus for biotech. Anything higher is placed in Drugs-Major), the better the returns. Clearly, hedge funds are playing this sector, crowding it to no end. The cynic in me says to run for the hills. Then again, taking into account all the stocks in the industry, it’s “only” up 13% for the year–with many being up more than 50% over the past two months.

But this post isn’t about warnings or throwing wet towels on cool rallies. Instead, I’ve decided to provide you with the tickers of the laggards, names that haven’t performed in line with the industry.

SGEN
JUNO
ACAD
TECH
RCPT
AGIO
PCRX
BLUE
KITE
MDCO
EXAS
FGEN
CMRX
ACOR
KERX
XLRN

I’ve found that when searching for stocks with market caps under $1.3 billion, it’s more hit and miss. The returns start to really weaken under $500 million. On the large cap side, there are only a handful of down stocks, which are ABBV, GRFS, JNJ, ALXN and AZN. Other laggards include AMGN, REGN, VRTX, MRK and LLY.

Botton line: be very careful about overweighting now, especially since the run up has been frantic. But if you are going to do it anyway, follow the smart money, like I did in the past with Randall J. “Fucking” Kirk and XON. Today’s purchase of BCRX was based off the ownership of two highly respected biotech managers: RA Capital and Baker Brothers. I don’t have an edge in BCRX, aside from my arsenal of weaponized influenza.

The above names are food for thought, meant to appeal to bottom fishers, tank suckers, and the cockroaches of the sea.

When a person, such as myself, lectures you about the sort of stocks to choose from, heed the advice and don’t utter a single word. If, by chance, you should see me doing the exact opposite of what I just said, look the other way and know that I am fully aware of what I am doing.

Men like myself, men of letters, have an acute understanding of all things financial. I am what you call “an expert”, literate in the arts of investment, whereas you’re simply a baboon swinging with testicles out off a vine. The expert is permitted to stray from the reservation, for he has earned it, toiling about the fields for almost two decades–learning his task. You, on the other hand, are a complete jackass.

Any questions?

I come to this blog and give you good leads. If you can’t close the leads you are given, you can’t close shit, you are shit, beat it, because you are going out. You think think this is abuse, eh! (extra Canadian) you fucking faggots?

Every single day you sit down in that fucking chair and say the same shit, always whining about what could’ve been. “Oh, if I only held onto that stock, I’d be a millionaire by now.”

You keep this up, many years from now, you’ll be at a bar talking to the other catamites, discussing your previous career in amateur trading, moaning and bitching about how hard it was and how you couldn’t play in the man’s game.

“THE FLY” IS FUCKING BUILT FOR THIS SHIT. HIS BRAIN IS MADE FROM TITANIUM AND HIS BALLS ARE DIAMONDS (no homo). I closed the day up 0.65%, nearing +14% for the year.

I added to NDRM and started a new position in BCRX, hoping the entire world catches flu.

I’m not hating on anyone, believe you me. I have enough of my own problems than to worry about yours. But I want to correct (Extra Delbert Grady) some of you road slobs out there, servile and vulgar creatures seeking attention about the internets.

Stop fucking trying to teach others through your failures. I see this shit a lot and I’ve might’ve been guilty of this, perhaps once or twice, throughout my illustrious internet career. Bog standard, I am “The Fly” and you’re just some booze hound in the shit class. No one wants to hear about your mea culpas, post mortem nonsensical rabble. I will fucking kill you, in real life, for telling me shit like that. You say that to me, on Jupiter’s Stone, I dig into my bag of hammers and split your skull in two!

Let’s hear about your winners, and not the step in shit varietal during a spastic earnings lotto victory.

Naturally, I am surrounded by sub-mentals and all you’re ever gonna do it cite moving average this and breakout from the asscrack that. You know, the world of investing wasn’t always like this. The internets turned every fucker with access to electricity into a technical analyst. When I was starting out, 9 out of 10 brokers spent his/her time after the market closed either getting inebriated or slaving over a bloomberg terminal. When researching, people never gave two shits about a consolidation off the deep-end of a cock-ball. All people looked at was fundamentals and relative strength. When you got on the phone to talk to your investors, you never sold stock based upon some god damned breakout past the elbow of a trending homo-flag. No. All you did was tell a nice, flowery, story, crossed your fingers, and hoped to dear God he paid for the trade before the stock went lower, otherwise you got hit with a reneg and your ass was toast.

Seriously, this culture of failure has got to stop. You’re an American, god damn it. Your country is blessed with the power to exterminate all forms of life as we know it.

Act like it!

Seventy five percent of stocks are lower this morning. Breadth this bad suggests we are going to stay down all day. Any efforts to buy dips in the morning are activities of a child, one who has never learned the lessons of hardship. Nonetheless, this is exactly the sort of day that makes you look around for bargains.

Get your fucking watch lists handy, lads, for they will become useful soon.

At the very bottom of the barrel is aluminum stocks, down an outrageous 6.5% as an industry today. Fuck them and to hell with all commodities. I trade in and out of oil and have stated that I am long until April. Aside from that, I am keenly interested in free cash flow generating machines on sale.

Here is my short list of stocks that I will buy on dips.

AMCX
SSNC
GRUB
MD
WYN
CTSH
ALXN
SBNY
FL

and maybe WYNN and RL.

Gone are the days when you could play Amazonian cell phone operators and sleep well at night. Today, all that matters, and trust me when I say this, is earnings per share, top and bottom line growth, and gross margins. Any other method of procuring stocks is simply asinine.

You’re very concerned about domestic economic growth. After all, rates are so low; it must mean something.

As a bear, I’d like for you to explain to me, the layman, exactly what’s so bad about this investable environment.

Let’s go over the boolish check-list.

1. Low rates
2. Cheap energy
3. Cheap commodities
4. The economy is producing 250k jobs per month.
5. The market is at new highs.
6. Innovation in tech/biotech is booming.
7. Cash levels are at new highs.
8. Earnings are at new highs.

Ok, now it’s your turn.

You can cite high levels of sovereign debt all you want. The simple fact of the matter is the market doesn’t care, as evidenced by rates.

Futures are soft this morning and BABA is pulling a FB on their investors. I fully expect BABA to flush out into the $60’s before recovering. Using Exodus (the second iteration of The PPT), I am able to run models, in an effort to find the ideal traits in a stock portfolio to reach maximum returns. I have no interest sharing my findings with the likes of you, since giving it to you would be a waste. But, I will tell you this: had you simply avoided Chinese stocks, as a whole, over the past year, 2, 3, 4 years etc, your investment returns would be markedly higher.

While it’s true, Chinese stocks offer great trading opportunities, on occasion. Nevertheless, it’s not worth the hassle. Say no to the burrito, every single time.

I loved the action in SLCA so much today, I started a new position in EMES and added to FMSA.

Both EMES and FMSA are short term trades, while SLCA is longer term oriented. The pin action in oil was great today. But don’t let that trick you into believing there is instant-cash to be had here. I am prepared to buy both EMES and FMSA lower, just one time, before I my cost basis is fixed.

Yesterday I sold WFT because I was afraid of a short term move lower. That was a mistake. As you know, my thesis is to be long oil through April, which is why SLCA is one of my largest positions. I demonstrated profound conviction as SLCA went lower, buying its shares down to $24.

Before I give you a lecture about conviction, it is important that you know it is impossible to have if your weighting is wrong. If you are invested too heavily in a stock or a particular sector, it’s like having a gun held against your head, which is attached to a trigger that is controlled by a clock. If you’re interested in longer time frames, start off by buying in small increments, anywhere between 1-4% of assets and move up.

It’s meaningless to sell a 2% position for a small, short term, profit. I’d much rather build up a position over time, then sell as the share price hits my targets.

Over the past year, here are some of my biggest winners, all of which I still hold, with entry points.

BX +18% ($33, $31)
STZ +32% ($87)–it never gave me a chance to buy lower
HAIN +40% ($44)
HAR +45% ($105, $95)
GILD +25% ($80, $93, $100)
JAZZ +25% ($143)
PANW +63% ($99, $81)
BID +13% ($40, $35)
WFM +46% ($40, $38)
ICPT +20% ($236, $154)
AAPL +32% ($90, $103)

There are other stocks that I’ve stubbornly held onto, which haven’t panned out yet, such as: YELP, NDRM, SLCA, MU and of course your favorite HABT.

The moral of the story is, if you’re not sure about what you’re doing, then you’re just wafting in the wind, controlled by small moves, churning your face away into a blender. We’ve all been down the road of indecisiveness and it’s an unpleasant trip.

I am absolutely convinced, thanks to the advice of ancient spirits, that this market will trade higher. Greedily, I want to capture as much of the upside as I can. To do that, there is only one course of action, which is to shut the fuck up about down days, take the hits when the come, and plan for the future.

Interested in some huge upside plays? Look no further than SBNY, a NYC centric super-regional bank growing deposits 30% year in and year out. Or how about ICPT? Their trials attest to a cure for fatty liver. Or how about SHAK and HABT on the food front? Interested in clothing? Might I interest you in KATE or UA?

Do you watch television? Sure you do. If you are an avid fan of television you know we are in the golden era of programming, which is why A list actors are popping up on shows all over the place. In the old days A list actors wouldn’t be caught dead on television. It was where careers died. But now, the production quality is as good, or better than, most movies. Budgets are massive, talent is abundant, and most importantly, people are interested.

It is the reason why NFLX went from $60 to $400. The subscription numbers soared after House of Cards lured people in. I have another play, perhaps not as lucrative as NFLX, but equally meaningful.

AMCX.

AMC is a leading cable channel, with plenty of quality programming. All of you know Breaking Bad, right? That was an AMC show. How about Mad Men, The Walking Dead, Hell on Wheels, or Turn? Most importantly, have you heard or seen the new Breaking Bad spin off Better Call Saul? About 5 episodes in, the reviews are fantastic. If this show can pick up where Breaking Bad left off, ad dollars should remain very strong and AMCX should spring higher.

Is there anything else to look forward to? Excellent question, young man. As a matter of fact there is.

This spring, legendary actor from the smash hit show House ( a personal favorite of mine), Hugh Laurie, is teaming up with “Loki” from the Avengers, in a new show called Night Managers. AMC Networks owns BBC America. If this show is a hit, which I cannot see how it won’t be, AMCX will make a bee-line for a hundy roll.