You better pay attention to these fucking yield curves–because they’re steepening. TLT is getting the business and banks are going to mint coin on this move.
Very simply: there is an inverse relationship between the yield curve and equity performance in bank stocks. Now that yields are rising, and fast, expect your local money manager to awake from his slobbish slumber and get long super regionals.
I have two favorites: SBNY and BOFI, both high growth/quality super regionals.
With global markets trending higher and US markets soaring to new highs, up almost a full 3 percentage points for the year; investors will be tempted to delve into a bit of wanton degeneracy. When walking about the drug den, perusing over the crack pipes and heroin needles, one is always tempted to take a flame torch or two to the pipe and take a puff, or perhaps stick a needle in one’s neck to enjoy a good morning opiate. “The Fly” is here to tell you “don’t do it.”
Say no to bad stocks, just like you’d say no to bad drugs.
The process goes likes this.
You’re making some money in good companies; but all of your stupid friends are making “fuck you money” in their faustian bargains. So you toss a bit of coin at these scandals and make some decent returns. Now the devil has got you by the nose, reeling you in like the guttersnipe that you are. You then toss all of you money into these bastard stocks, the market tumbles amidst homosexual greek tragedy, and your new job is chief rabbit skinner at your local haberdashery.
Do not give into your base and carnal instincts, you sub-mental morons. Your new found love for future accounting irregularities will be a one sided Wagnerian affair.
Stay the course, lads. Do not become the savage swine that your in-laws believe you to be. Moderate your excesses and avoid, at all times, becoming a craven bedlamite, whose sole purpose on earth is to vanquish his/her own net worth.
I know it feels like a lot more. But the truth of the matter is, the chinese dog eaters and the samurai in Japan have enjoyed 2015 (+23%, +16%) at the expense of western markets, sans France. The froggies are up nearly 12%, with the Nazis a close second at around +10%.
Many of my friends and colleagues alike are texting me right now, from greasy Italian eateries in crime ridden cities, declaring their fervent opposition to US markets. These people, these deluded wastrels, will lose all of their dollars, AND MORE, should they choose to act on these foolish notions.
The United States of America, in conjunction with Dr. Benjamin Bernanke, hailing from Citadels darkest corner office, will lay waste to all of you bearshitters, persons of gross disinterest who found in their black hearts to bet against greatness.
Betting against the S&P 500 here, barely up 3% on the year, is like trading Nolan Ryan before he went on to become one of the greatest pitchers of all time.
Again, I am going with a Woody Allen movie that doesn’t star Woody Allen. Why am I doing this? For the most part Allen is a whiny bitch and annoys the hell out of me. Believe me, I appreciate plenty of his roles and will get into my favorite ones in the weeks ahead. But Woody’s true talent is in writing and directing, not acting.
This movie, Magic in the Moonlight, starring Collin Firth and Emma Stone, is a movie about deception and trying to unveil another’s trickery. The plot of the story is not what makes it fantastic, but the writing. I’ve seen this movie about 3 times and liked it so much I, regrettably, asked Mrs. Fly to watch it. Five minutes into it, she accused me of being the lead actor in the movie, proclaiming that the movie was actually a biopic on my life.
Granted, Colin Firth’s character is a bit of a curmudgeon cynic and he truly gives zero fucks, similar to me. But Le Fly is often jovial and definitely full of positive energy, fueled by the many barrels of coffee that I drink on a daily basis.
It was a solid end of the week, making up for yesterday’s nonsense. I really don’t have the patience anymore for waiting. I want stuff and I want it now. If I have to wait, I get angry and agitated; then I start to brood. When I brood, I throw things into fires and partake in ancient rituals that can affect the balance of power in the world today. Plus, I like to play with my orbital space cannon (OSC, NOW IN BETA MODE!), when I get bored.
A few orders of business here.
1. Join Exodus. Not only are you required to pay me the equivalent of one cup of SBUX coffee for my software for an annual membership; but you’re also required to send the good folks at iBankCoin referrals. Operators are standing by.
2. Be sure to tune in tomorrow, when I will reveal to you a Woody Allen movie that I was scared to show Mrs. Fly. Why was I scared? Because I knew that when she saw it she’d say that I was exactly like the character in the movie, which is exactly what happened. I then had to justify all of my actions in this movie, one that was played by someone else in a fictional setting. Totally, absurd.
This started out as a little man’s rally, small penis, flaccid, forked, fucked, radish. But now, as you can readily see, the city square is populated with all of its finest people to bear witness to the new DICKCHOPPER 5000 guillotines, removing men from their anatomy because they were short the market.
I am pressing gains of 1.3%, despite having a large cash position. But I haven’t been sitting, idle. I’ll have you know that I bought ANAC today, in decent size. And, for the love of kale juice and collared green milk shakes, I added to my WFM position. This is a 13 point average up; but I like my chances here with WFM heading into the gluttonous months of the year.
I am going to have a profound effect on your net worths, if you’d just shut the fuck up and pay attention, and bend the knee (extra Stannis, the one and only true king–by law).
How many times have we seen the market or a specific sector get lit up, everyone plant flags in it, saying it’s dead, only to see a miraculous revival?
Back in December everyone was bearish on oil. Had you gone long then, you made 50% on your money. Over the past month, oil is up 25%. Whether oil goes up from here is immaterial. What’s important to note is the market’s resilience in the face of horrifying tragedy.
So now the question is, what’s next?
Well, if you misers had a subscription to the single best market intelligence platform, otherwise known as Exodus, you’d know the answers. I’ll give you a freebie.
When oil was going down, what was going up? Grocery stocks.
Stocks like WFM, SVU and KR were hitting new highs. Since then, they’ve corrected (Extra Delbert Grady), leaving short term traders in tatters, in the street naked, looking for their mothers.
Homebuilders have gotten AC-10 Gunship’d over the past month, with names like RYL, WLH, HOV and PHM down more than 15%. In an environment where the dollar reigns supreme, US employment and wage growth are bullish, it makes no sense for the property market to be this weak.
These are just two instances of industries under pressure that might prove to be profitable for adventurous and entrepreneurial dip buyers.
All that aside, markets look strong today, like Borat.
YELP, TWTR and LNKD are completely fucked. The only social media stock that did well post earnings is ANGI. Isn’t that a riot? Unlike FB, these companies are immature child-like nerds, unable to close deals.
YELP’s business model has morphed from a cool and hip resource for foodies to a Tony Soprano styled mafia extortion ring.
TWTR is being run by a fucking misfit moron, who should spend far less time at his gym and on the fucking phones trying to close deals.
And lastly, we have LNKD, a former darling of the space who just got clown-raped for losing control of their business. They mentioned a number of reasons as to why they sucked, most of which pertaining to not being able to close deals. They’ve responded to a shitty sales force by aggressively hiring new shitty salesmen. It’s hilarious, really.
Truth be told, these companies aren’t profit oriented, so their culture is one of a corrupt, vagabond, hipster, dipshit, motherfucker.
