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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Off to a Good Start, So I Went All In

I got off several very good trades this morning and then gandered at the market and liked what I saw, so I went all in — leveraged to 140%. This normally is a stupid thing to do especially when trying to crawl out from a hole. But given the oversold nature of the tape an the fact that we have some momentum today, I opted to attempt to capture some gains back, not by surgical methods, but carpet bombing in an attempt to grab alpha.

As I write this, the market just dropped 20bps and my gains CUT IN HALF from +1.5% to 0.8%. Nevertheless, this is my position at the present time. I own a who’s who of “good stocks” and will cut loose losses rapidly, although I will be a little more forgiving now that I own every stock on the market.

I got tired of tick trading, so the other option was leveraged bet and here I am.

Stocklabs was OVERSOLD yesterday for our 6 month algo, and almost for our 12. My best bet is to be long into this condition, in the hopes and dreams that we can recapture some upside momo.

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Dispatched

Up until today, my poor trading was only lack of gains — disparate returns amidst overall ebullience resulting in frustration. Today the chickens came home to roost, as I was dispatched to the tune of 4.3%. Such a set back places me down 5.5% for September and we’re just getting started. I can no longer take outsized risks and must protect the account from any further downside, while at the same time perform.

The overall tape was poor and trading stocks were discarded for waste. There are baskets I track inside SL and they were all down 3 to 4% for the session.

At the same time, bonds were up and defensive stocks green. Anything paying a dividend and consumer based was up. As such, I ended my trading session by clearing the decks and buying defensive stocks for tomorrow’s opening tick. I was conflicted by it — because we are oversold. There is a distinct chance we run tomorrow in a little mean reversion pin action. However in the off chance this does not come to pass, I believe we are now in a defensive posture, 62% cash.

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IT’S OVER: THE FLY CAPSIZES

What an utterly useless avocation this now is — me coming here to discuss failures. It’s over for me. I had many good runs and valiant efforts. I was a solid trader through and through and loved doing it. But today’s sojourn into disaster is the straw that broke my back, me being the camel and all.

DOWN 425BPS and I do not even know why. Markets aren’t that bad. I wasn’t even fully invested. The only reasonable explanation is that I am cursed, haunted by devils who are shorting my stocks to malign me.

This is unacceptable, so therefore, I have HALTED my trading account and do not know when I will revisit it. Frankly, I do not deserve to trade. I should be washing dishes or perhaps cooking bread like a fat fuck.

Trading was fun and many of you benefitted from my wisdom; but now it’s over.

Ciao

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Why Wasn’t I an Early Investor into Bitcoin?

For a project planned, I’ve been spending the past 4 hours or so sifting through my blog archives for any mentions of Bitcoin. I’ve found comments on the site dating back to 2011, blogs from 2012 and up. Back then, and not until very recently, I was a harsh crypto critic, although I wouldn’t call myself a legitimate critic — more of an ignorant buffoon who used his platform to deride something he was wholly ignorant of — relishing in the setbacks of innovative and forward looking investors who took the plunge early and had the will power to see it through.

Quite honestly, reading 53 pages of Bitcoin FUD has made me question the very purpose of this blog. Because I know why I said what I said and why at $65 BTC I felt the coin was far too expensive and then laughed at it when it broke out above $100.

I have been blogging on the internet since 2001, finance since 2005. In some ways, I am like an NPC, routine oriented, cranky, and suspicious of new things. I was buying shipping stocks in 2013 when I should have been buying cryptos and I am doing it again — deriding NFTs — because I do not have any, and instead buy the same old stocks every day making 1%, losing 0.8% — rinse and repeat.

Repetition.
Ignorance.
A desire to be “right” because people read me.

What better way to be right than to bet against the crowd? The best feeling wins are always when no one else saw it coming. This is how I felt during the financial crisis — having successfully traded through it and just about every other major financial shock since the dot com melt down. I even panicked out of stocks in March of 2020 at the COVID lows — before acquiescing and getting back in and having my best year ever because of it.

In classic me form, I eventually sold myself on cryptos in early 2020 and bought a significant amount of Ethereum — making more than 15x my original investment. But this doesn’t make me a ETH guru, just a guy who finally caved and bought something that was down — in the hopes it would come back. I got into ETH mainly because of COVID and my desire to have a currency backup, since I feared the dollar could one day collapse. Saying that out loud makes me cringe also, since it’s more chicken little the sky is falling nonsense.

With nearly 22,000 blogs in the bank here at iBC, I can honestly say probably HALF of them are sensationalism, words crafted by a lunatic intent on getting a reaction out of people — stirring the pot if you will. I blog three times per day from Monday-Thursday and twice on Friday, once on the weekend — like a good NPC. I try to come up with things to say on days when nothing is new, other than my trading — which is always new and always different. Over the past year I have moved away from investing and into day trading, something I am quite fond of and enjoy a great deal. My blog has more or less become a denizen to post my notes and trade diary and admittedly isn’t all the useful for people reading me for day to day advice.

I probably do not need to be blogging every single day after 22,000 blogs and I probably shouldn’t think of things to say on days when there isn’t anything new.

I wasn’t the only one who missed BTC at $65 and I wasn’t the only one who said it was a big scam. I eventually did come around to the idea of making money in it — only after dozens of blogs decrying it worthless. As a reader of the site, I would be very hard pressed to take the advice of someone who flip-flopped on something he was so adamant about in the past. But truthfully, my best attribute as an investor is making money in spite of myself.

I trade against my own convictions all the time. I form ideas and attempt to hold true to them; but mostly I am a chameleon who adapts to the environ — typical of any species who wants to survive and thrive.

I could never have admitted any of this 3,5 or 10 years ago —- since my ego wouldn’t allow it. I was raised to be strong and always felt like the underdog and worked extra hard to disprove “haters” real and imagined. I never felt at ease without enemies — which is probably why I pick so many fights with people online.

But honestly, I swear, I am no longer this person.

I missed Bitcoin from 2013-2020 because I was too lazy and ignorant to immerse myself into something new. I looked down upon anyone who didn’t have a series 7 or series 65 and felt I knew more because I had worked at a big firm with bloomberg terminals and knew people who were very very rich who hated Bitcoin or anything new. It’s worth noting, these people still hate Bitcoin.

I remain very long ETH now, not because I am constantly researching it and investigating its prospects — but because I am riding the wave and my basis is so low — it makes little sense to sell it now.

I will not change, in spite of my desire to want to change, but I will also continue to invest successfully too —- because for whatever demented reasons involved, I am good at what I do and eventually, almost always, catch the wave.

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Cryptos Coming to Stocklabs Next

I was going to build an entirely new platform for cryptos but have decided to at least integrate on a basic level cryptos to Stocklabs in our next project. After that, options.

For now, I will apply our technical algos and curate some of the largest cryptos and embed them into our powerful screener. It should be fun. After a while, perhaps I can apply the intelligence and mean reversion algos to them. We’ll see.

Today we finalized a major feature add to the system applying percentage returns for all stocks, indices and sectors to analyze returns on a 30 second, 1,5,15, and 30 min time scales. This is the opening salvo in what will be a slew of quantitative tools designed for high speed data transmission and trading.

The way this works is as you would imagine. Nothing gets by me now. As soon as I can start seeing the market better, I’ll be unstoppable again.

 

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THE CRYPTO RUN IS OVER; PREPARE FOR CATASTROPHE

I was right and deserve credit — for calling today’s crash in cryptos. I see there is a small bounce here, as retards ebb into ETH sub $3400 hoping for some elasticity to propel them tonight back to $4k; but that has been canceled.

Although very long and very bullish for the long term, I do believe the NFT market has caused a bubble that we have not seen since DOGE topped us out that one Saturday amidst Elon Musk chicanery.

Markets look ok — but I suspect the selling in the crypto market isn’t done yet. I’d look for a retest of $3k for ETH before even thinking about adding to an already large position.

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WARNING: The Crypto Market is Being Subverted Again

The last time we had a market like this in cryptos was May 2021, when morons pilled into DOGE, CUM ROCKETS and other unsavory coins — laughing whole heartedly because pretending is fun. Now we have a perverted craze in NFTs, of the likes I never thought possible. People are paying $50k for complete nothing. To facilitate much of the “art” payment, SOL is used. Over the past month SOL has gone from $35 to $187, straight parabolic to the upside.

Like DOGE, this will not last and the idea of SOL displacing ETH due to expensive gas fees is not going to happen.

I’m not a crypto seller, but be careful up here — especially new jacks wanting quick gains.

We have a new suite of tools in Stocklabs that I am thrilled to use today — % change over 30 sec, 1,5,15, and 30 min time frames. Sounds simple and it is, but when used with our volume tools — straight crack.

Those are the biggest movers in Pre-market, sorted by volume and gains of +0.5% or more over the past 5 mins. When in the trading session, I can pair that with our volume surge analyzer on a 5 min scale to find anything that is moving and be first.

Early going, I am +80bps, eager to begin the Fall trading season, hoping for something exciting to happen.

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People Are Important

I was disappointed this morning when I read this and had planned a parody blog where I suggested it’d be vital to the national interests to turn away the fats from hospitals, if resources were scarce. But then I changed my mind about it because I love some fat people and half my family could be considered the fats and I’d not like to see them die a dogs death.

What have some of us become?

I turned away from religion a long time ago, in spite of being raised catholic and served as an altar boy until I was 13. I did so because, well, I stopped believing in the divine. But if there was a time for some people to seek God and the virtues celebrated by religion — it is now.

People are hesitant to take the vaccine for good reason, for one it has proven to kill people, not that often, but often enough that you notice it even with the censored media. It’s like winning the lottery, but with better odds, and when you win — you die. The other important fact about the vaccine  — it does not stop a COVID infection, nor does it stop one from dying or being hospitalized. It might mitigate severe illness and death — but it does not stop it. So don’t be shocked and surprised when good meaning people, your neighbors and your friends, choose not to enroll in the vaccine lottery due to attendant risks. You are guaranteed a shot at death with the vaccine, but if you’re a careful person and keep your mask nice and tight — you may never get COVID. To date, about 1 in 10 Americans have gotten COVID.

See the logic? I hope you do.

We all have hopes and dreams, some of them simple and honest and others with greater aspirations ebb on the grandiose — and we do not exist on this planet for very long. We are all sons and daughters, have people who love us and share ideals and passions with — enjoy to laugh and loathe to cry. We have our favorite foods and books and never turn away a good cocktail, especially during a show, an enchanting melody, or perhaps a sporting event. We love to live — because living is wonderful and meeting other people is what makes it more special.

To be lucky enough to be alive in America in the 21st century is a gift. Our gift is not the government who maliciously governs us but the land and the people who inhabit it. I am and always will be bullish on people. But sometimes, as is the case now, they get hamstrung by psyops and demonize one another for reasons that are wholly emotional. Be charitable and empathetic — and let’s get thru this terrible time with dignity and honor, lest we’re no better than all of those people we so frequently like to point fingers at.

 

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ENDED THE WEEK IN CATASTROPHE; NEW TOOL LAUNCHED AT STOCKLABS

I felt good this morning, thin, healthy, tanned. I was up 2% and everyone else was having a mediocre day and because of this I felt supremely confident in my decision making process.

This is how is started.

Then I dove into BTCM — ETH miner and all, felt good about her. I saw the rally in cryptos and felt it would continue. Then the price dropped 4.5% below my basis, so I bought more at 13, original basis $13.83. The stock continued to drop, so I booked gains in my only other two positions: HVBT, BTBT — especially since they were in the same space. The stock dropped again and I declared “I am prepared to deploy a Martingale Stratagem” to the gentlemen inside Stocklabs. I reduced my cost basis to $13.26 with a third average down — representing 15% of my portfolio. At this stage I am on tilt because my daily gains are dissipating and I feel the pressure of doing something that feels wrong. Clearly the stock was going lower and there wasn’t any bids.

I deployed some money back into the market and had to close them out for additional losses.  At the point I feel like a fucking moron.

Then tech at iBC announced our latest price movement tool was finished and launched. What the tool does is pretty amazing when paired with our volume tools. It measures the % gain of any stock on a 30 second, 1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute, and 30 minute time scale. When deployed inside the platform, I see all. This doesn’t mean I am able to bring the fire. This only means I have more options available to me. A trader is only as good as his tools and his instincts. If he isn’t a good trade, he should focus on being a Quant or long term investor — both admirable and profitable avocations.

I deployed more money using these price tools and came out with some gains.

 

Like so many times when struggling intra-day, I came back to breakeven from a depth of -1.5%. I was tempted to sell it all — but then I reminded myself of the original thesis for being long BTCM — a long rich weekend of crypto buying was ahead, surely I didn’t want to miss out on this.

I closed the session -64bps and these blogs discussing my shitty trading are getting repetitive. But the good is nothing without the bad, the corrosive mannerisms of the markets tends to weigh on me and makes me pine for better days. Sentimentality does us no good and cutting losses in the face of so many facts is the very lynchpin between a good trade and a bad one. I permitted feelings get in the way of a good time and because of it — I ended the week down -0.27% — but up 0.6% for the month. I will have time to play with the new premium offering this weekend and I strongly advise you to start using them ASAP — if a member.

Away from my day trading, I have two other accounts, A best Ideas long term +0.8% and my Quant +0.78%.

Have a good weekend and stay healthy.

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Can You Afford Not To Have Crypto Exposure This Weekend?

Show some fucking respect to the ETH millionaire here. Sure, it has been several months since I’ve had this status — but I’m back and with ETH above 4k, you need to show me some god damned respect.

Speaking of which — are you prepared for the weekend run? Are you at all exposed? If you do not own ETH or another coin — why don’t you gather up the courage to grab one or two or even three crypto miners?

There are several who mine for ETH — including HVBT and SOS. Some of the larger miners like BTBT have been hamstrung due to Chinese operations, but they have since moved out and operating at capacity again.

I was fortunate to be invested wisely into the open and am up nearly 200bps again today, making that 4% in the last two days. I am mostly cash, trading small and with purpose, with the intent on circumventing the current market malaise, which is fucking small caps, and just gain and maintain exposure to the crypto markets — which in my opinion are on the cusp of a severe melt up.

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