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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Markets Will Never Trade Down Again

Hopefully this blog jinxes the market and causes a really bad crash. I don’t think stocks will ever truly trade down again. I keep waiting and hoping for it and preparing for it but it never comes.

Into today I was ready, mostly cash with a short etf, eager to see the blood flowing heavily and yet nothing happened but more upside.

I was forced, mind you, to sell the etf and buy a bunch of degenerate stocks. I didn’t want to do it — but I’m duty bound and had no choice.

One thing of note is $IRBT – a spectacular miss and the company has been complete shit since the Amazon deal fell thru. The product is fantastic but the revenues keep collapsing. I only mention this because I own some in my strategic longer term account and will likely add to it tomorrow. There are a few turn around plays I like, one is $IRBT, the other is $WBA.

With Walgreens, I think people have PTSD about the place after killing so many people with their COVID-19 shots. But once people get over that and black people stop looting everything in the stores, we might have a nice bottom in place here. Revenues are strong but the looting is causing some issues, if I don’t say so myself.

All fixable problems.

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Time to Press Down on the Fucking Brakes

Old sport —

We’ve had a good run but it’s ending soon. You can tell by the quality of stocks bugging higher today, some of the lowest brow stocks in the market, if not rock bottom. This is what happens when the plebeian class scurries back into the fray, hoping for potentialities — a brief sojourn with the mortgage money to take advantage of all of the grandiose splendour. But this is where the line ends and all those still on the train CRASH into the fucking wall and the car compressed like an accordion into the steel shards, impaling those inside with their mortgage money in an exercise in Darwinism.

I closed at SESSION HIGHS +57bps, with 87% cash and $TZA/$ILMN positions — fully content with my 10.1% YTD returns — carefully ebbing through the market as if walking in a minefield.

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BITCOIN BUSTS LOOSE TO THE UPSIDE

What are you bitches going to do about it? $BTC is above $54,000, $ETH above 3,100 — and you’re there with dick in hand wondering when it’s going to collapse. You’re sitting there hating on Elon Musk, Bitcoin, and AI — portfolios in tow OFF by 305% for the session. Don’t you know markets don’t care about your feelings? Don’t you know you’re a dumb son of a bitch?

I’m trading in a somewhat genteel manner, albeit tempted by the risk on today. There are two tapes today: one of the ribald nature and the other risk off — mostly amongst lower beta stocks. One could make the case that today is a perfectly fine bull market session. Not every day is marked or marred by tragic tragedies and looming collapses. Maybe, just maybe, we drift higher.

I’m +44bps, 75% cash, seriously contemplating the close to come.

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Do Not Trust the Tape

Markets look good on the surface, with exception to the drop in copper. Breadth is middling and cryptos are flying. Hell, $BTC is at $53,000 en route to $100,000.

Everything seems great, which is EXACTLY why I’m suspect as fuck here.

I own stocks but I also own $TZA and will not relent on the idea that a leg lower looms. Markets simply don’t go up forever, making everyone happy. Some of you need to cry in order for this to all work.

That being said, I don’t want you to cry and would prefer you lived happily ever after. But the laws of the market dictate zero sum.

Up 20bps early going, side eying the tape and on the lookout for collapses.

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A General Update on House Fly

I’m done with my bulking regimen for now, as I’ve gained 6 pounds in about a month. I had gotten too gaunt and weak after losing a rapid 16 pounds in what I considered to be my “Oppenheimer diet” which consisted on very little food and never any booze. I do think, now with time to reflect, this diet was deleterious to my health and have been in a weakened state since then. Once I began to consume 3000+ calories per day, my energy skyrocketed and my strength at the gym exploded.

I’ll now do a maintenance diet for a few months until I achieve some additional goals at the gym.

Soon I’ll be heading out to the yard for add 1.5inches of top soil, peat moss, and compost to my lawn, followed by some seeding. I do enjoy to get my hands dirty in the yard and Mrs. Fly and I pride ourselves on trying and failing each and every year to grow our own fruit and vegetables.

I just completed a laundry room project with Mrs. Fly, where we laid down some tiles, board and batten on the walls, some custom shelves, and paint. I hated the idea of doing this — because I viewed it, prematurely, as a waste of my time. But once I caved and applied myself, it was rather enjoyable and the outcome better than any contractor fucker I might’ve hired in my stead.

I don’t drink often, maybe once per week or every other week. Generally we’ll open a bottle of wine — but on occasion I’ll make some cocktails — since I like doing it. I’ve been looking into BATCH making cocktails. One example of that would be 2 parts vodka or gin (I prefer gin), 1 part vermouth plus 15-20% water to compensate for dilution and then storing this martini mixture into the freezer for rapid consumption. Gone are the days of having to mix them up and place in a shaker and serve. You can quite literally be an alcoholic very conveniently.

On the issue of cocktails, I think the key to some unique drinks is to infuse your simple syrup with flavors, such as cooking it with rosemary or pears or mint. My favorite cocktails include: Dirty Martinis, Gin Fizz, Gimlets, French Martinis, Hemingway Daiquiri, Mojito, Manhattans, and Vodka sour.

On the topic of books, I’ve been reading the Chernow biography on Washington — who was a lunatic of the first order. I will not slander our first President, so therefore say nothing more. I’m also still reading The Cossacks by Tolstoy and on occasion some Kant. I’ve been slow with my reading because in my spare time I’ve been learning to code — first C and now Python.

Learning to code isn’t hard — it’s a matter of remembering the language and understanding the syntax. However, it is a slow process to convert cursory knowledge into practicable action.

My preferred music is always classical and/or big band jazz or jazz ranging from the 20s into the 60s. I never listen to rap and on occasion will delve into country or even EDM — but never rap — since it is degenerate and I’d rather not expose myself to it.

Lastly, my torn ACL is all but healed, which occurred about 9 months ago in a pickle ball excursion. I will never play that god forsaken sport again and instead revert back to tennis. Speaking of which, I’m excited to start hitting some balls soon, as the weather here is a pleasant 55 degrees.

Aside from trading, tweeting, and conversing inside Stocklabs every day, that’s what I’ve been up to.

CIAO.

NOTE: We are doing free trials for Stocklabs next week. Drop your email on this form and you’re in

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Booked Another Strong Week, Eagerly Awaiting for the Top

If you thought this was a good week for stocks — you are wrong. Whilst FANG or Mag 7 stocks were up 7 percent for the week, the rest of the market wasn’t as accommodative.

Look at the returns.

Risk averse/low beta stocks jimmied higher by 2% for the week, almost matching the lauded returns for the FANG stocks. It’s important for you to know, empirically, this market isn’t a good tape — but instead rife with bubbles and valuations bordering the obscene.

Here were the losing industries for the week.

As for me, I enjoyed gains across the board, as I continue par excellence on a scale you couldn’t imagine possible.

Whilst slow, yet methodical, my methods have produced a year to date return nearing 10%. I closed long, but with a semiconductor short hedge amidst cash totaling 35% of assets. I slid throughout the afternoon from +128bps to close at +73bps, mainly due to boredom, taking random gambits just for the sake of taking them.

Looking into the future, I envision the market completely up-ending and collapsing by the summer, as the Joe Biden economy crashes into its own VR generated fictional world. Valuations are expensive and yields are higher. I am biased long only because of the prevailing trends — but that can and will change rapidly when the panic starts.

Have a good weekend, catamites.

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Crushing Today

I’d like to inform you that I am greatly outperforming you today, up 1.18% in a day racked by indecision and losses. We are in an asset bubble, Sir. All of what you see in front of you is fantasy.

Let me elaborate something of importance for you.

Mag 7 or FAG10 stocks are up 15% in 2024.

HOWEVER, 100 high beta stocks are down 8%.

Low Beta risk averse stocks are up 7%.

What does it mean?

It means gains are concentrated in a few stocks and if you’re not in these stocks — you are RACKED WITH LOSSES. The easy money has been made in grocery store/risk averse stocks. When the party ends, and it will, your FAG10 stocks will collapse without warning — as plebs scramble frantically to exit — tripping over each other and falling off the side into vats of boiling magma. It’s important that I warn you of what awaits you for when it happens you cannot say that I did not warn you.

All that aside, markets look fine. Earnings have been good. Unemployment is low. Everything is good, up until when you realize $NVDA is worth more than the entire Chinese stock market and Canadian economy. Asset bubbles are hard to pop and time but when they do pop and collapse — the exits will always be unceremonious and catastrophic.

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I Sat Out the Rally

GOOD SIRS —

Whilst a great many out there enjoyed ribald and perverted returns, with the likes of $NVDA and $SMCI ripping the tits off bears, I traded exactly flat. If you think about it, what greater achievement is there but to trade precisely flat. Sure, many can make and lose a bundle — but can you trade FLAT when it counts?

I do not care to have missed out on the rally since I almost always miss out on the COLLAPSES. I am fully long into tomorrow in an array of cool stocks, wanting to fit in with the hipsters buying the tape here. It should be noted, I disdain the market with my entire lifeforce but acquiesce to the melodies of the tape out of sheer survival instincts, especially since I am not an idiot.

That being said, it’s entirely possible markets pull back tomorrow and I get bogged down, mired with losses. But I doubt it. As a point in fact, I’d bet my entire life we trade up tomorrow, if given the chance.

I offer you zero explanations as to why I am bullish, as I am not in any way obligated to provide you with anything. I am informing you of obvious truths. If you’re unable to discern or extract value from my missives, I strongly recommend you seek psychiatric counseling immediately and have your head looked after, for it might be damaged in some way.

Good day.

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A Most Violent Move to the Upside is Underway

Ladies and gentlemen the $NVDA numbers knocked the cover off the ball and now the bears are going directly to prison. As you read this they’re being rounded up and hauled off for being menaces to society.

Today’s rally, NASDAQ +340, isn’t broad based but fixed on tech and growth. The risk averse stuff is down and upside breadth is limited to only 66% of stocks. Because of this, I’m long with some degree of trepidation. I had to immediately liquidate all stocks that were down near the open, mostly risk averse, and of course close out my $UVIX hedge. If it weren’t for the fact I was long $SMCI, I might be down today.

Presently, I have gains of +330bps in the quant, +90bps in strategic, and +30bps in trading. My trading is by far the largest and I’d like to point out that I feel no pressure to increase those returns now. The day is young and markets might trend lower from here, reducing me to a fool should I chase performance.

The $NVDA numbers were good enough to shut up the bears and we should expect some continuation in the rally, perhaps not today — but definitely tomorrow.

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The Fate of Western Finance as We Know it Lies in the Balance

Do not worry about “The Fly” on days like this. I comported myself with both panache and precision, limiting my losses to just 12bps — mowing into the close with a rather large position in volatility to hedge against potentialities. I am speaking of course of the $NVDA earnings announcement, which if bad will crack this market asunder — unseen since the days when $AAPL reigned supreme.

We all assume $NVDA will crush. But the question we need answers to is will it be enough and will the guidance be good? Since the stock is down 9% in the past week, one might assume a better than expected result will jimmy up the stock back to recourd highs.

I am simply not in a position to make accurate predictions, as I no longer trade on or possess insider information. It’s just me out there in the wilderness, a la Fresca, using the tools available to me, alongside God given talents, to absolutely annihilate markets.

In a worst case scenario, I think my volatility hedge will be enough to offset my longs. I will need to take a position of boldness soon, as trading for flat is somewhat moribund. However, I will do so when I am ready and not on your terms — even if you’re a god damned customer. You are not entitled to anything and will get what you deserve.

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