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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Market is Narrowing

Again we are seeing divergence from most stocks to niche. In the niche we have 20% winners in any number of areas, mostly small cap. Overall, stocks are down 4 of the past 5 days. The declines are moderate, but pervasive. We are also seeing weakness in commodity names.

Basically if you’re not River boat gambling in stocks like LTRY and MARK, this rally is passing you up.

I can see it most obviously in my quant vs my trading — +0.28% for the week vs +5.7%.

Is the trash bubbling now as a foreshadowing of a great big implosion to come? We do often see crap rising before general collapses. If I had to guess, I’d say markets deserve to collapse but it doesn’t look like it’s ready to yet.

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By last account, Google retained 85% market share of search, a monopoly. With the Microsoft integration of ChatGPT, even though it’s a biased leftist POS AI, there is a good chance Google will shed market share. Microsoft is calling this their biggest product innovation in 15yrs.

Shares of GOOGL shed 7.7% today, about $100b in market cap lost due to this excursion by Bill Gates and Co. The subsequent result of this disruption has been a legging in, if you will, into any stock AI related. I had been researching this area for sometime, mostly because Stocklabs uses its own AI for our algorithms.

The point here is this: in spite of the NASDAQ down 200 and the world crumbling beneath our feet, this sub-sector has taken off. I tried to lose money, but failed. I did close down 16bps with a fully long book in tow, now hedged with 20% weighting in SQQQ.

My booked PNL by day. Observe the excellence.

At any rate, just like in all feverish melt ups, there will be drama. But with drama, just like how we played the COVID stocks, there will be scams and companies taking this salient and pretending to be inside of it.

To be clear: there is no better trading area of the market than in stocks like SOUN, VERI, BBAI, AI, MARK, and RGTI — just to name a few. Moreover, these stocks might even double and triple from here, as people speculate how Google might fend off this Microsoft attack on their core business. The search wars have reopened, following 2 decades of Google supremacy. I do recall a time when Bing and Askjeeves and Looksmart tried to compete — but they ultimately failed. But this MSFT is different and now equipped with superior technology, so be on the lookout for major whips and saws — as people scramble around for the next AI play.

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Jim Cramer said we were in a bull market yesterday. The semis are +22% this year and we haven’t had a bad week since the year began. Even if you’re the most astute and depraved bull, there is no excuse for this sort of market.The very idea of it going higher day in and day out, in spite of my magnanimous gains, makes me sick.

Ergo, I’ve decided to keep my hedges in place, and perhaps more.

Presently, I am 30% short via FNGD, SOXS and TZA. I realize there are redundancies in those ETFs — but fuck off for even thinking about telling me. It would be very easy for me to sell them now and then traverse the markets, light footed and gay, and purchase any number of stocks from which I could profit. But instead of doing that, I am going to set roots here and declare that my short bias is of a PERMANENT varietal. Why, I will sell the markets short every single day until I run out of money.

Also, and this goes without saying, I reserve the right to change my mind at any point and do the exact opposite. There’s not telling what I might do, as I am the definition of “unreliable narrator.”

What I offer you is my hopes and dreams. My skillset, if you really want to call trading stocks a skill, is finding numbers and letters before they move to my advantage, selling them at a profit, and then coming here to boast about it.

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At any moment this grande eloquence you see before you can rapidly trans morph into a nightmarish hellscape where Carl Quintellia (sp?, who gives a fuck) presides over a sharply lower tape, paired like a fine wine with disastrous news.

I’ve already conducted a billion trades this morning, mostly all profitable, on the long and short side, and am barely up 30bps. Out of the blue came a FUCK YOU red candle, followed by another and then another. Now we get a green one and everyone is back at it.

Last night Biden talked a lot of shit in the SOTU, none of which I paid any attention to. Do you remember 20 yrs ago when Bush was praising the virtues of his infrastructure plan, only to once again go nowhere. Face it, America WILL NEVER invest in itself, but instead far distant places that we like to destroy and then rebuild using no bid contractors.

It is over, but we are enjoying the last remnants of Pax Americana.

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Who Cares About News?

Hey Asshole,

Are you still reading up on how the economy is just about to spill over and collapse? How is that working out for you so far? I want you to recognize that no one in the whole world is more bearish than me, truly at my core. There isn’t a single person alive who truly and emphatically wants to see WESTERN FINANCE AS WE KNOW IT burn to the ground. However enjoyable a scene that might be for me, I am also rooted deep in reality — which of course works against me in a variety of ways but not when it comes to trading stocks.

I took most of the day off, came back after 2pm, and then proceeded to ride the wave higher +155bps for the session — placing me in the upper echelon of investors alive today +27.4% for 2023. All of these grandiose returns is meaningless of course, unless I intend to do something with the money, such as entreat myself to a RUINOUS European vacation in May — or perhaps partake in home renovations of the delirious varietal. Either way, my gains are meaningless, as far as I am concerned. Money is only important when you need it and when you need it you much — it turns you into a monster.

We are in a bull market. I am the authority on the matter and all other opinions are invalid, until I say otherwise.

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It’s Almost Time for Oil to BUST LOOSE Again

Pardon my absence — I didn’t feel like blogging nor trading and kept myself busy doing others things this morning. If I ever suddenly disappear — it’s usually because I get into a certain kind of mood and just want to be left alone. I am certain it can be diagnosed.

Markets are whipping higher again — but do not be fooled. The IWM is barely up and the price of CRUDE OIL is soaring, +4%. You European scum have had it good for too long and got lucky with a warmer than expected winter. Well, you can’t always get lucky and eventually, if we wait long enough, you’ll freeze.

Without Russian crude on the market and price caps in place, it’s only a matter of time before the price of Brent gallops past $100 — shitting onto the faces of all those in its path.

You’d be wise to position for this on a longer term basis, perhaps even laying the ground work now for the eventual ascent.

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Let me explain something to you. You are talking to a person who is +25.4% YTD, in the first week of February. Whatever notions of skill you believe you have should be checked before coming to this blog. I’d also like to renew and remind you to cease offering me financial advice. This goes for those who speak to me in real life and want to “share ideas”. Understand that your “ideas” are less than mine and the idea of me even listening to your words pains me.

I finished the session at RECOURD HIGHS, +3.41%, now 10x my original investment since 2020. I am beyond risk aversion and even greed. I am now operated solely inside the matrix itself and do not even see objects anymore — just lines of code and fractals. Do not pretend to understand what I am saying to you, for you have never been where I am.

My advice might be reckless for the foreseeable future, since our paths have greatly diverged — you still trying to scrounge up enough money for food whereas I am now pressing maximum risk into what could be a fantastical short squeeze.

I am prepared to lose a great sum of money. However, given the current state of how locked in I am, blessed by the stock Gods, I doubt I will even see a losing week for the balance of 2023.

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Market is Materially Weakening

It’s a stated fact that markets are weakening over the past week. Below you can see the denigration of breadth. At the same time, it’s worth noting, wanton degeneracy is on the rise — which of course is part and parcel of anyone living in America.

As far as I can tell, we can either go up or down — it’s that simple. Ergo, and this goes without saying, you must make a choice.

Do you want to bet on Team Biden is Chinese balloon slaying queens?

Or, would you prefer to bet in the inevitable dissolution and complete and total annihilation of western finance as we know it?

Your call.

As for me, I am 100% long again, plus three degenerate stocks that I held from this morning all in the hole now. And I have a 10% position in SOXS — because I too am contemplating the annihilation phase of this rally.

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You Didn’t Think a Sharply Lower Market Would Stop Me, Did You?

See pal, there are two types of people in this world — writers and readers. What are you doing now?

I stepped into today with an 8x aka 40% position in TZA, not because I felt markets would collapse — but knew it. I also has some QUBT and MARK because the quantum computing and AI thesis trades were and still are pervasive.

The net result is go fuck yourself.

Any questions? Do you want to know how I do it and how I can teach you so that you can do it to?


Markets look to be barreling lower. I am 100% cash until after 12:30, at which point I’ll turn on the Time Machine and start zig zagging through the market again.

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Markets Love Ambiguity: BEWARE OF REALITY

One of my all time favorite trades is a cash burning story stock, pre-revenue. Wall Street loves a good story and hates to deal with reality, when it comes to concept stocks. You can apply this logic to the entire market during period of duress. Take for example right now: we have Chinese balloons traversing the country and a war raging in Ukraine, fully funded by the United States in what seems to be a quagmire for all parties. One must ask oneself from time to time: what exactly do we gain from siding with Ukraine, a nation of 30 million against an ancient power in Russia — whose resources are needed to fuel the global economy?

ANSWER: Nothing at all, unless you’re thinking about toppling the Russian govt in order to steal it from them.

This is simply yet another neocon failure. They are evil and smart people, but wholly incompetent and unable to operate without spite. They, as well as many in the west, have fallen from grace and now operate under a system of malevolence.

Back to the market.

The markets are going up now because there are several assumptions at play here.

1. The war will not be resolved any time soon.
2. Inflation is at bay.
3. Soft landing prospects are rising.
4. Housing market is down, but not so bad.
5. The Fed will pause and possibly ease in 2023.

These are the five pillars the market is operating under and because none of these things need to be resolved now — markets are free and pretend they are all true — bid stocks up to levels that correlate with growth and not recession.

Understand these things can change in an instant. All we need is an earnings warning, a missile fired into an aircraft carrier in the Pacific, rising rates crushing the proles, the Fed resurgent after a hot CPI print.

We have all taken for granted the specter of, seemingly so, WORLD FUCKING WAR. Since nukes aren’t real, you’re not gonna get off so easy and many of you will be mobilized and fighting inside two years. Under any news of world war, markets will be shattered into the tiniest of pieces.

So understand the risks associated with your debauchery and your wanton disregard for common sense, in this brave new world we find ourselves spilling into, sloppily and with the fattest intentions ever attempted by civil societies.

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