WHO CAN STOP ME?

Look at me,

Things are good and they’re going to stay that way.

As you sit there and ponder the next move, I already know it and have positioned myself for peak success. I, once again, stand before you victorious, a theme that has carried over in these halls over the decades, as if this were some sort of loop of winship. I come here and elaborate my trading plans and then reveal my successes and failures and some of you commiserate with me during periods of failure and then I come back to achieve RECOURD HIGHS once again and you’re all quiet.

It’s important that you know of my prowess, for reasons I haven’t quite grasped yet. Perhaps I just like to boast and brag, condescend to the lower classes on the blog so you might prattle amongst your coal miner friend about how “great a man this Fly guy is.”

Or maybe it is because I just like writing and coming up with creative ways to express my imperial position over you, a mostly mindless underclass of wanton depravity.

At any rate, I am once again bowling on my opps, which feeeeeel much better than not doing so at all. My plans for tomorrow is to EXTEND this winning streak, amongst all of the pomp and circumstance and really have fun doing it.

Yours truly and with generosity,

Le Fly

There are times to be timid and cower in the shower, afraid of shadows and losses. And then there are times like this when we cavort inside the market place and take what is rightfully ours. This is one of those occasions, with the wall of worry removed and the bullish fervor peaking into the elections.

What happens after the elections are beyond our control. But from now until then we have a window of opportunity and with that I intend to take what is rightfully mine.

I am extending my gains to another RECOURD HIGH today, +85bps, heavily long a sundry of names in various fields and areas of interest. At my core, I am a Bitcoin man, always have been and always will be. Largely speaking, I believe the paper from which you purchase toilet paper and/or grease for your cars is worthless. You can see it in your transactions. The price of your home isn’t really +100% since 2019; but the buying power of your shitty dollars have collapsed. When you start to understand the velocity of money and how we are all subjugated by the devaluation of it, you realize the only way to stem that tide is via investment.

Naturally, there are periods of duress to contend with and deflationary scares, whereby investment banks lose a great deal of money and those losses manifest themselves vis a vie the general flow of capital. But when was the last time investment banks lost money and when was the last time stocks went down for a period longer than a year?

2022 is the reason why you should always be mindful of pullback, the year when Russia first invaded Ukraine. It was important because markets priced in the potential loss of prestige and power by the west, particularly America. Should that day ever come, we will have a bear market in earnest. But until then, up we go.

It seemed like such an easy trade, getting long $TLT ahead of the most expected Fed cut in years, yet here we are with rates soaring again at 4.13%, especially emboldened by recent strong inflation data.

Old sport, this was a crowded trade and now you’re trapped inside of it, hooked by the allure of easy money. But nothing is easy, right? Ultimately rates will come down; but we have time to fuck with bond longs in the meantime. Plus why are you in bonds when you could be in stocks?

Early on we have an electric market in cryptos and semis and weakness in basic materials. The rally is very narrow amongst the Tera caps and we don’t have much diversity amongst today’s winners.

I do like the financials, broadly speaking, especially with Trump leading in polls. And of course it’s hard to ignore semis, which are once again at record highs. But if I had to narrow my focus on one place of interest it is $BTC, leaning towards a full breakout in a month that has an average return of +22% since 2014.

If I had to choose just two months out of the year to trade it would be Oct and Nov. Since 1999, stocks have risen 76% of the time in November for a median return of 3%. The Turkey Gods are in fact real and trying to impose your bearish sentiments during a time of joy and gluttony is just plain wrong, perhaps evil.

Today Mr Big Shot money manager will drive Mrs Fly to the farmers market for some “fresh organic produce.” I love NC but this place does not believe in organic food. Most of the people here sprinkle some extra Round off on their food after they get it from the store. None of the farms are organic, which is likely some “northern sissy shit” that I’m used to. I suppose I do eat the Monsanto chemicals every time I dine out; but I try to be clean in the way I eat and much prefer to eat at home.

Last week Mrs Fly threw a birthday party for one of my fucking dogs. It was Twinkies 12th and I named her that back when Hostess filed for bankruptcy protection and it had nothing to do with my dog being gay, although I think she is. Largely speaking, Twinkie is a dumb dog and is what people might say is a “dog’s dog.” At any rate, Mrs Fly dressed the dog up and we took her to Home Depot, which is of course her favorite place to defecate. We then treated her to some vanilla iced cream. Since we bought her, Mrs Fly has been cooking grass fed beef for Twinkie and often times her meals are better than mine. Some night’s Twinkie might have steak sweet potatoes and some oats, while I’ll have a burger with salad.

All jokes aside, tending for animals in this way isn’t necessarily a bad thing; but it is a feminine quality, the sort of thing a man would not do. I marvel at the spectacle and do not begrudge Mrs Fly for having a kind heart for animals, which I think says a lot about a person.

Off to walk the fucking dogs.

In spite of the grandiose day for large caps, I shorted the Qs via $SQQQ at 11% of assets midday and kept it against my longs, leveraged at 104%.

My view is the following:

We are bullish and any discernment in the area of this market trending higher should be ignored. I stand before you, once again, at RECOURD highs, now pressing +22% for 2024.

My goal, naturally, is to ride this wave until it crests and then time it every so perfectly and sublimely, shorting this fucker into the ground, and perhaps lower. Maybe into the Earth’s inner core where equities can die, once and for all.

It was one of those trend days where risk was on and the shit stocks looked great, but the good companies did little. My fear is for a RUG PULL on Monday, which is why the hedge. Ultimately, we have a directionally bullish move in dollars, stocks, Bitcoin and a bearish trend in bonds, which is due to the trade being crowded ahead of FOMC cuts.

Into next week, we will celebrate our success and drink to good health and refinement.

I read yesterday Trump was doing much better in swing states and today we have a +3.5% move in the regional banking index, which for me is the main barometer on whether markets believe Trump will win next month. Back in 2016, two areas of the market surged when he was, none more than the banks and small caps, best represented by $IWM.

We are seeing a massive move higher in all financial names and Bitcoin. Trump also seems to be the $BTC candidate. It’s worth noting that $BTC usually jumps 22% during the month of October and was down 7% MTD before today’s rally.

Lastly, Musk unveiled a cyber taxi yesterday and a series of robots. Markets are not impressed by these offerings and instead bid up shares of $UBER and $LYFT.

I’m nearly entirely invested, +100bps early on.

When day trading, timing is everything. If you buy into a big up day just before a minor pullback, you might find yourself BOGGED for the entire day without any hopes of respite. Having the data available can buttress assumptions or feeeeeeelings, providing you with a strategy to work from.

Case in point: the fucking recent trend of dumping out at the open is also paired nicely with large upwards movements from 11am to 12pm.

A 45bps move in a single hour is massive. If you notice by the graph above the 3pm hour also provides a nice return for longtards. These trends, however, are subject to violent change and are pervasive now because of quants and other various factors. At some point we might see a reversal of these trends, so don’t think it is the holy grail.

I delved back in, sashayed even, into the market but in a small (scared) way, with position sizes barely at 3% and cash over 50%. I’m doing this because the run has been magnificent and I rue the idea of giving any of it back. I took in +55bps in trading and fancy myself to be rather lucky, yet again, and would prefer if I escaped any potential pullbacks completely unscathed.

The way I usually achieve this is by selling the open, which angers some of you small minded folk who lock away their longs inside safes, certificates and all, hoping for great outcomes.

See pal, that’s the difference between me and you. You hope for outcomes and I manifest them.

At any rate, it was a good day and I’m pleased with what I see but have a sense that we’ll soon endure a little pullback.

Before the close yesterday I took a floater, a 1% sized position, in $WW on the hunch that the news of them getting into the fat people drug business would buoy shares in the after hours. Not only was I right, I was exactly right.

I booked at trade in the pre market +58%.

Other than that, my positions were mostly listless, as is the case sometimes. Markets have gone straight up since morning yet my gains sat at only +50bps. So you know, I have a habit of selling my losers during most mornings to escape the pangs of despair or extended sell off at the opening hour.

I had a choice to make: chase the market and try to scale the +50 into +100bps using my cash or selling everything and reassessing. I decided to book it all, locking in the return, sitting in the tall grass eagerly waiting for meat to pass by.

Long story short, I was positioned wrong at the open but quickly and fastidiously courrected my ways and fought all the way back, having to steamroll people in my path along the way.

I closed with minor and embarrassingly small gains of just 5bpd; but also preside before you are RECOURD HIGHS of +20% YTD and leveraged long at 106% equity EAGERLY awaiting MOAR.

Some ask me why or how I am able to achieve such a high level of performance over such a long period of time and the answer lies in the obvious: natural talents, extreme passion, obsessive compulsive fixation on achieving results.

That said, WE ARE BULLISH and like the prices here. I even took a small 1% floater in shit company $WW, because they have a new drug for the FATS to help them slim down a bit so they can CONSUME more.